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- Policy AnalysisTurkeyUS Foreign Policy
Trump’s Election and Future of Turkish-American Relations
Dec 4, 2024Salim ÇevikTurkish President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan expressed clear satisfaction with the election of Donald Trump as president of the United States, quickly congratulating…
- Policy AnalysisIraqViolent Extremism
The Islamic State Is Trying to Rebound
Aug 29, 2024Gregory AftandilianTaking advantage of the world’s attention to the Israel-Hamas and Israel-Hezbollah conflicts, the so-called Islamic State (IS) is trying to reconstitute itself…
- Policy AnalysisTurkeyRegional Relations and Geopolitics
Erdoğan’s Renewed Push for Syria Reconciliation: Domestic Pressures and Regional Dynamics
Jul 25, 2024Salim ÇevikTurkish President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan made his most explicit appeal yet to Syrian President Bashar al-Assad. Setting a high bar for the future of relations, E…
- Policy AnalysisLebanonMigrants, Refugees, and IDPs
Lebanon Needs Help in Dealing with Its Syrian Refugees
Jul 10, 2024Imad K. HarbThe dangerous saber-rattling and bloody confrontations between Hezbollah and Israel have partly obscured serious domestic challenges facing Lebanon and the car…
- Intern Corner
Captagon: Assad’s Ticket to Normalization in the Arab World?
May 22, 2024On May 19, 2023, Bashar al-Assad made headlines by attending the Arab League summit in Jeddah, Saudi Arabia for the first time since the start of the Syria Civ…
- Policy AnalysisLevantUS Foreign Policy
US Troops to Stay in Syria and Iraq but Perhaps Not for Long
Feb 22, 2024Gregory AftandilianIn recent weeks, there have been meetings in Washington and in Baghdad about the presence in Iraq and Syria of US troops, whose official mandate is to aid loca…
- Policy AnalysisSyriaRegional Relations and Geopolitics
Does Syria Have a Role in the Israel-Hamas Conflict?
Nov 6, 2023Patricia KaramAs the war between Israel and Hamas rages, the Middle East is bracing for a wider, multi-front regional conflict that will have serious repercussions for the g…
- Policy AnalysisSyriaIdentity Politics and Sectarianization
Syrian Kurds in an Increasingly Precarious Position
Oct 18, 2023Gregory AftandilianSyrian Kurds associated with the Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF) are increasingly seeing their autonomous entity in northeastern Syria threatened by internal an…
- Policy AnalysisLebanonMigrants, Refugees, and IDPs
The Plight and Politics of Syrian Refugees in Lebanon
Aug 8, 2023Patricia KaramWhen Syria’s regime was readmitted into the Arab League and its president, Bashar al Assad, rehabilitated after years of ostracism for his brutal crackdown on …
- Policy AnalysisNorth AfricaSecurity and Defense
The Fate of the Wagner Group in Syria, Libya, and Sudan
Jul 18, 2023Gregory AftandilianThe failed mutiny by Yevgeny Prigozhin has put the fate of his Wagner Group doubt, not only in Ukraine but in several Arab states as well.
- Policy Analysis
The Jeddah Arab League Summit: MBS’s Final Crowning
May 31, 2023The 32nd Arab League Summit was little more than the final crowning of Saudi Arabia’s Crown Prince as the leader of the current Arab political order.
- Policy Analysis
What Does Normalization with Assad Mean for Accountability and a Political Resolution?
Apr 18, 2023Against the backdrop of Syria’s impending return to the Arab fold, French judges this month ordered three high-ranking Syrian intelligence officers to stand tr…
- Policy AnalysisTurkeyConflicts and Conflict Resolution
Obstacles to a Turkey-Syria Reconciliation
Mar 29, 2023Salim ÇevikSyrian President Bashar al-Assad paid an important visit to Moscow in mid-March 2023. One of the main agenda items was the Turkish-Syrian reconciliation that R…
- Policy Analysis
Arab States Are Normalizing with Syria’s Assad Regime
Mar 28, 2023Taking advantage of the devastating earthquake that ravaged parts of northwestern Syria in February, Syrian President Bashar al-Assad has tried to use the trag…
- Policy AnalysisThe Arab WorldUS Foreign Policy
US Middle East Policy: The Trump-Biden Doctrine in Action
Mar 22, 2023Charles W. DunneAll US presidents, it seems, need their own foreign policy “doctrine.” President James Monroe famously started the trend in 1823, and many others—Truman, Eisen…
- Policy AnalysisLebanonRegional Relations and Geopolitics
Lebanon and Syria and the Saudi-Iran Detente
Mar 21, 2023Imad K. HarbThe recent China-brokered agreement between Saudi Arabia and the Islamic Republic of Iran is expected to have a de-escalating effect on many issues in the Midd…
- Policy AnalysisSyriaMigrants, Refugees, and IDPs
Politics, Displacement, and the Human Toll of the Recent Earthquake in Syria
Mar 15, 2023Heba GowayedOn February 6, 2023, the earth shifted at the fault line that runs along the Turkey-Syria border, resulting in a 7.8 magnitude earthquake, which was followed j…
- Policy AnalysisSyriaSecurity and Defense
Syrian Kurds Are Hoping for, but Not Banking On, Continued US Partnership
Feb 24, 2023Gregory AftandilianThe massive earthquake that struck southern Turkey and northwestern Syria has given the Syrian Kurds a reprieve from a possible Turkish military invasion of ar…
- Policy AnalysisLevantDemocracy and Governance
Turkey’s Presidential Election in the Shadow of Devastating Earthquakes
Feb 22, 2023Mustafa GurbuzThe devastating February 6 earthquakes in Turkey, which caused nearly 45,000 deaths in Turkey and Syria and rendered hundreds of thousands of people homeless, …
- Viewpoint
Aid to Syrian and Turkish Earthquake Victims Must Arrive Unobstructed
Feb 10, 2023Many cities and neighborhoods in Turkey and Syria have either been destroyed or damaged to the point of making them uninhabitable. Rescue efforts in both count…
- Policy Analysis
Erdoğan’s Rapprochement with Assad Spells Trouble for Syrian Refugees
Feb 1, 2023Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan’s interest in a rapprochement with Syrian President Bashar al-Assad is the latest chapter in his delicate domestic and r…
- Policy AnalysisSyriaGlobal Health and Health Policy
The Captagon Problem in Saudi Arabia and Other Gulf States
Sep 22, 2022Gregory AftandilianOver the past decade, the amphetamine fenethylline, widely known by the brand name Captagon, has increasingly become the drug of choice among the youth in Gulf…
- Policy AnalysisSyriaUS Foreign Policy
Biden’s Syria Policy: Steady Non-commitment and Persistent Failure
Sep 20, 2022Nabeel A. KhouryThe Biden administration’s Syria policy, as well as its policy for the Middle East in general, stems from priorities and practices set in place during the eigh…
- Intern Corner
Syria Is Not Ready to Repatriate Displaced Syrians
Sep 20, 2022By 2015, over four million Syrians had fled the country’s civil war and arrived in neighboring countries, in Europe, and beyond. Today, the number of displaced…
- Policy Analysis
Syrian Refugees in Turkey Face an Uncertain Future
Jul 12, 2022In the early hours of July 1, 2022, Turkish sources reported on a story of undocumented immigrants fleeing the Osmaniye Refugee Camp in southern Turkey. That s…
- Policy Analysis
The Ukraine Crisis Further Complicates Foreign Intervention in Syria
Jun 15, 2022Despite early assessments that Russia would begin drawing down its military forces in Syria due to its need for more troops in the Ukraine invasion, it appears…
- Policy AnalysisIranSecurity and Defense
Israel-Iran Shadow War in Syria intensifies Amid International Developments
Mar 23, 2022Gregory AftandilianThe ongoing military conflict between Israel and Iran (along with Iran-backed Shia forces like Hezbollah) in Syria show no signs of easing despite the Russia-U…
- Policy AnalysisLevantViolent Extremism
Is the Islamic State Rebounding in Syria and Iraq?
Feb 25, 2022Gregory AftandilianThe nearly two-week siege in January of the Ghuwayran prison and parts of the town of Hasaka by fighters of the so-called Islamic State (IS) in northeastern Sy…
- Policy Analysis
Rehabilitation of the Assad Regime
Dec 15, 2021With the approaching date of the next Arab Summit to be hosted by Algeria in March 2022, some member countries of the League of Arab States have become more vo…
- Policy Analysis
Russia’s Multifaceted Policy in Syria
Nov 23, 2021More than six years after Russia began its military intervention in the Syrian civil war, President Vladimir Putin has chalked up some important victories amid…
- Viewpoint
The Failure of Syria’s Constitutional Committee
Nov 16, 2021In October 2019, Secretary General of the United Nations António Guterres enthusiastically welcomed the creation of Syria’s Constitutional Committee that would…
- Viewpoint
Syria’s Return to the Arab League Is Imminent
Oct 5, 2021A decade after the start of the Syrian revolution against authoritarian rule and the suspension of Syria’s membership in the League of Arab States, the country…
- Policy Analysis
Southwestern Syria Tests US-Russia Cooperation
Sep 22, 2021The US-Russian agreement of July 2017 that led to a fragile stability in southwestern Syria has recently unraveled, testing President Joe Biden’s approach in S…
- Viewpoint
Rearranging American Priorities in Syria
Jul 27, 2021On July 17, Syrian President Bashar al-Assad took his oath of office in front of parliament after winning the presidential election with 95 percent of the popu…
- Policy AnalysisSyriaDemocracy and Governance
Syria’s Presidential Election and the Absence of the American Role
Jun 1, 2021Radwan ZiadehOn May 26, Syrian President Bashar al-Assad won a fourth seven-year term in a practically uncontested election. No one was surprised by the original announceme…
- Policy Analysis
The Biden Administration and the GCC Rapprochement with Damascus
May 27, 2021With Syrian President Bashar al-Assad on his way to a fourth term in the Syrian presidential election held this week, Moscow is expected to resume its diplomat…
- Policy Analysis
A Decade of War in Syria: Political Transition Is Still the Answer
Feb 22, 2021The middle of March marks the tenth anniversary of the civil war in Syria. It began in the south of the country when regime forces resorted to violence to quel…
- Policy AnalysisSyriaIdentity Politics and Sectarianization
Kurdish Dilemmas in Syria
Jan 13, 2021Gregory AftandilianThe Syrian Kurds, who constitute about 10 percent of Syria’s population, are at a crossroads, trying to preserve their shrunken statelet in the northeastern pa…
- Intern Corner
Mitigating Conflict over Water in the Euphrates-Tigris Basin
Dec 15, 2020The Middle East and North Africa (MENA)—the most water-scarce region in the world—has arguably borne the brunt of climate change in the planet. Nowhere is this…
- Policy Analysis
Biden Has a New Opportunity in Syria
Dec 7, 2020The exceptional nature of the 2020 American presidential election, held in the shadow of the coronavirus pandemic that has so far killed over a quarter million…
- Policy Analysis
Russian-Turkish-Iranian Cross-Purposes on Syria’s Future
Sep 8, 2020On August 24, the United Nations-sponsored Syrian Constitutional Committee meetings reconvened in Geneva. UN Envoy Geir Peterson, the chair of the meeting, dec…
- Policy Analysis
Spinning the Wheels: Syria’s Useless Political Negotiations
Sep 2, 2020Radwan Ziadeh contends that the many rounds of negotiations to resolve the Syrian crisis have failed because of the imbalance of power between the Syrian regim…
- Policy Analysis
Loss of a Generation: The Education of Syria’s Refugee Children
Aug 25, 2020Yara M. Asi reports that almost ten years of homelessness, poverty, and trauma have deprived millions of Syria’s children and youth—displaced inside the countr…
- Policy Analysis
US-Russian Competition and the M4 Highway in Syria
Jun 23, 2020Joe Macaron argues that in Syria, implementing the Caesar Act sanctions and opening the east-west M4 Highway reflect intensified US-Russian competition while t…
- Policy Analysis
A Fracture That Will Not Threaten the Assad Regime in Syria
May 18, 2020Radwan Ziadeh discounts the long-term political repercussions of the Assad-Makhlouf dispute and writes that if the regime gets in serious trouble, the cousins …
- Policy Analysis
The US and Iraq Must Shore Up the Fight against the Islamic State
May 8, 2020Charles W. Dunne argues that the fight against the Islamic State in Iraq faces numerous setbacks, including the coronavirus, and that the upcoming US-Iraq Stra…
- Policy AnalysisSyriaDemocracy and Governance
Syria’s Authoritarian Regime and COVID-19
Apr 24, 2020Radwan ZiadehSyria's delayed admission of COVID-19 cases was dictated by the regime's political calculations and its hope to use the cover of the pandemic to avoid sanction…
- Policy Analysis
Russian-Turkish Tensions in Syria May Help Mend the US-Turkish Divide
Mar 20, 2020Daniel Brumberg studies the intricacies of Turkey's involvement in Syria and accommodation with Russia as it simultaneously hopes to enlist the assistance of t…
- Policy Analysis
The Muted Arab Attempt to Restore Influence in Syria
Mar 18, 2020Will Arab countries be able to renew their influence in Syria given the ever-present inter-Arab rivalry and unfavorable geopolitical factors?
- Policy Analysis
Complications for Turkey in Idlib
Mar 17, 2020Ankara’s options in Idlib are extremely limited as it must enforce moderation on the part of the extremists as well as address the refugee crisis.
- Policy Analysis
The Moscow Summit: Will the Ceasefire Hold in Idlib?
Mar 11, 2020The failure of previous arrangements regarding Syria suggests that the latest ceasefire agreement between Turkey and Russia may only be temporary. Read this an…
- Policy Analysis
Trump, Congress Lay Out Election Year Foreign Policy Priorities
Mar 11, 2020Marcus Montgomery discusses how the Trump Administration is pressing forward with its campaign against Iran as many in Congress are trying to constrain the pre…
- Policy Analysis
Russia Has Limits on Its Influence in the Middle East
Mar 10, 2020Charles W. Dunne argues that despite Russia’s success in Syria and stealthy gains in the Middle East since 2015, the limits on its capabilities have become inc…
- Policy Analysis
The Idlib Developments Usher in a New Phase in Syria’s War
Mar 6, 2020The Syrian civil war entered a new phase when Bashar al-Assad’s regime began an assault on the northwestern Idlib province, eliciting a Turkish response. ACW a…
- Policy AnalysisLebanonDemocracy and Governance
Lebanon’s Imminent Collapse: How Can It Be Prevented?
Mar 3, 2020Imad K. HarbThe dissolution of confessional politics in Lebanon and the political coalescence of the street opposition to negotiate for social change are key to addressing…
- Policy Analysis
The Struggle over Syria’s Idlib
Feb 28, 2020The Syrian regime’s killing of scores of Turkish soldiers in Idlib province will aggravate Turkish-Russian relations and take the crisis in Syria in a complete…
- Policy Analysis
Three scenarios for the battle for Idlib
Feb 19, 2020Major decisions have to be made by Turkey, Russia, and the United States in the coming weeks that may determine the next phase of the Syrian conflict.
- Viewpoint
The Collapse of the Syrian Pound May Doom the Syrian Economy
Jan 23, 2020Syria’s most difficult battle now is how to support its national currency and fix its collapsing economy with an impoverished central bank and the absence of r…
- Policy Analysis
Syria’s Problems Worsen While UN Efforts Fail
Dec 4, 2019Syria’s deteriorating economic conditions and the failure of UN-sponsored discussions about a constitutional document indicate that the Syrian people will cont…
- Policy AnalysisSyriaRegional Relations and Geopolitics
Russia’s Gains in Syria Could Be a Blessing in Disguise
Nov 6, 2019Joe MacaronJoe Macaron argues that while Russia may fill the vacuum left by the withdrawal of American troops from the Turkish-Syrian border, it could have challenges dea…
- Policy Analysis
The Russia-Turkey Deal for Syria Will Go Nowhere
Nov 5, 2019Mustafa Gurbuz analyzes the problems in implementing the initial phase of the latest Turkish-Russian agreement in Syria, concluding they indicate that the deal…
- Viewpoint
Putting al-Baghdadi’s Demise in Perspective
Oct 30, 2019Khalil E. Jahshan looks at the deeper meaning of the United States’ killing of IS leader Abu-Bakr al-Baghdadi and doubts if his demise will portend the end of …
- Policy Analysis
Trump’s Syria Decision and the Damage to US Foreign Policy
Oct 22, 2019The fallout from President Donald Trump’s abrupt decision on October 6 to order US troops to stand aside as Turkey launched a long-planned incursion into north…
- Policy Analysis
The Turkish Military Operation in Northeastern Syria: Scope, Aims and Reactions
Oct 17, 2019Turkey seems to be in a hurry to achieve its operational goals before pressure increases to bring the operation to an end or in order to pre-empt any operation…
- Policy Analysis
How Turkey’s ‘Peace Spring’ changed the dynamics of Syria’s war
Oct 15, 2019Turkey's military action on Syria will have consequences far beyond the 'safe zone' it is trying to establish.
- Viewpoint
Trump’s Syria Decision and the Turkish Operation
Oct 10, 2019Without American forces on the ground, Washington will not be able to realize its objectives in Syria, especially in confronting the Iran-affiliated militias t…
- Policy Analysis
Confusion in Turkey’s Regional Foreign Policy
Oct 8, 2019Turkish foreign policy choices in Syria, Sudan, Libya, and Somalia are plagued with contradictions that may lead to self-defeating outcomes.
- Policy Analysis
The US Decision to Disengage from the Syrian Crisis
Sep 11, 2019With Syrian and Russian forces aggravating the situation in northern Syria, President Erdoğan needs to protect Turkish interests in Syria and himself against d…
- Policy Analysis
Assessing the Latest Conflagrations between Israel and Hezbollah
Sep 11, 2019The latest conflagrations between Israel and Hezbollah were an attempt to dictate new rules of engagement. Nevertheless, both sides appear to be committed to t…
- Policy Analysis
The Safe Zone Agreement in Northern Syria Improves Turkey’s Position
Aug 13, 2019On August 4, Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan threatened a military operation against Kurdish forces in northeastern Syria. His declared objective was to…
- Policy Analysis
Partition and Spheres of Influence in Syria
Aug 5, 2019Radwan Ziadeh opines that Syria can no longer be considered a homeland for all Syrians and that its partition has become a reality. Restoring its societal make…
- Policy Analysis
Hamas Plans a Comeback to Damascus: US and Regional Implications
Jul 31, 2019Hamas is looking to realign itself with Syria as the Trump Administration floats ideas about Palestinian-Israeli peace; however, it appears that the Syrian reg…
- Policy Analysis
Various Players Maneuver for an Uncertain Future in Syria
Jul 24, 2019Russia, Iran, Turkey, and Israel are positioning themselves to play a role in Syria’s uncertain future now that the Assad regime is defeating the opposition in…
- Policy Analysis
Turkey’s Nativist Turn against Syrian Refugees and Other Arabs
Jul 23, 2019The key drivers that fuel the recent nativist sentiment in Turkey are the worsening economy and the politicization of the refugee issue by divisive election ca…
- Policy Analysis
A US-Turkish Agreement Remains a Challenge in Northeastern Syria
Jun 26, 2019US officials may be rushing a deal with Turkey in northeastern Syria that could lead to a Turkish-Kurdish confrontation and stall the American withdrawal from …
- Policy Analysis
Idlib between Regional and International Imbalances
Jun 5, 2019Radwan Ziadeh writes that the Trump Administration must look at Syria as more than merely a humanitarian crisis and help in reaching a political transition to …
- Policy Analysis
The Legacy of the Pillared Arab State
Jun 1, 2019This paper is part of ACW's fourth book, titled The Arab World Beyond Conflict.IntroductionAmong other things, politics provides a means of managing conflicts.…
- Policy Analysis
Syria for Sale: The Price of Assad’s Survival
May 10, 2019Russia’s so-called investments in vital Syrian installations like the Tartous port and in strategic assets such as oil and gas illustrate that the country is b…
- Policy Analysis
Avoiding Punishing Lebanon Because of Hezbollah
Apr 16, 2019The United States continues to ostracize and pressure Hezbollah in Lebanon which is inadvertently helping the party grow and become more influential in the cou…