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- Policy AnalysisThe Horn of AfricaEnergy and Economics
Horn of Africa’s Security Concerns and Economic Crises
Apr 27, 2022Gregory AftandilianThe current Russia-Ukraine crisis has overshadowed another troubled region of the world, namely the Horn of Africa, which encompasses Sudan, Eritrea, Djibouti,…
- Policy AnalysisIranSecurity and Defense
Israel-Iran Shadow War in Syria intensifies Amid International Developments
Mar 23, 2022Gregory AftandilianThe ongoing military conflict between Israel and Iran (along with Iran-backed Shia forces like Hezbollah) in Syria show no signs of easing despite the Russia-U…
- Policy AnalysisEgyptRegional Relations and Geopolitics
Sisi Intensifies Arms Imports to Secure External Support for His Policies
Feb 28, 2022Khalil Al-AnaniEgypt has become the third largest arms importer in the world, according to Stockholm International Peace Research Institute (SIPRI). The institute’s “Trends i…
- Policy AnalysisIranUS Foreign Policy
High Stakes at the Vienna Nuclear Talks with Iran
Dec 8, 2021Daniel BrumbergThe ongoing indirect US-Iran negotiations in Vienna on the future of the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA) have thus far made little progress. Already…
- Policy AnalysisRegional Relations and Geopolitics
Is There a Macron Doctrine in the Middle East?
Dec 2, 2021Joe MacaronUnder President Emmanuel Macron, French foreign policy in the Middle East went through a transformative shift, revealing a clear break with his two predecessor…
- Policy AnalysisEgyptSecurity and Defense
Growing Relations between Egypt and Russia: Strategic Alliance or Marriage of Convenience?
Sep 27, 2021Khalil Al-AnaniOn August 22nd, Egypt’s Minister of Defense and Military Production Mohammad Zaki made a trip to Russia with a high-level military delegation. Zaki attended th…
- ViewpointThe Arabian Peninsula and The GulfSecurity and Defense
After Afghanistan, a New Biden Middle East Doctrine Takes Shape
Aug 19, 2021Imad K. HarbIf there are lessons to be learned from the disastrous end of the American war in Afghanistan, they would be most applicable to the countries of the Arab Middl…
- Policy AnalysisThe Arabian Peninsula and The GulfSecurity and Defense
US Middle East Influence in Afghanistan’s Shadow
Jul 15, 2021Daniel BrumbergWill the departure of some 3,000 American troops from Afghanistan be a harbinger of a more fundamental realignment of US Middle East security policy? Presently…
- Policy AnalysisSomaliaSecurity and Defense
Increasing Contestation over the Red Sea and Horn of Africa
Dec 23, 2020Gregory AftandilianGrowing international and regional involvement in the Red Sea-Horn of Africa theater has made this area a potential hot spot that is somewhat reminiscent of Be…
- Policy AnalysisSecurity and Defense
Military Institutions and Poor Governance in the Arab World
Nov 16, 2020Imad K. HarbThe latest Arab Opinion Index (AOI) from the Arab Center for Research and Policy Studies (ACRPS) in Doha, Qatar, reveals an interesting combination of views ab…
- Policy AnalysisSecurity and Defense
As US Counterterrorism Policy Focus Wavers, a Thorough Review Is Needed
Oct 28, 2020Charles W. DunneThe struggle to defeat global terrorism has been a dominant issue in the last four presidential elections, but not so in 2020. As the race between Donald Trump…
- ViewpointUAESecurity and Defense
Comments on the UAE’s Acquisition of the F-35
Sep 8, 2020Abdulwahab Al-QassabIsraeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu is said to have condoned the sale of the advanced American F-35 Joint Strike Fighter to the United Arab Emirates afte…
- Policy AnalysisSaudi ArabiaSecurity and Defense
Can Saudi Arabia and the UAE Develop National Arms Industries?
Jul 22, 2020David B. Des RochesWith a speed rarely seen in history, the Gulf Arab states have evolved from mere afterthoughts of colonialism to advanced countries. Located in a strategic reg…
- Policy AnalysisThe Arabian Peninsula and The GulfSecurity and Defense
The Arms Trade in the MENA Region: Drivers and Dangers
Jun 17, 2020Charles W. DunneCharles W. Dunne argues that international arms sales remain a huge business in the Middle East, making it the most militarized region globally. However, he wr…
- Policy AnalysisSecurity and Defense
China in the Middle East: Capitalizing on Washington’s Distractions
May 29, 2020Charles W. DunneCharles W. Dunne analyzes how China's efforts to expand and defend its interests in the Middle East may come at the expense of the United States, which has tra…
- Policy AnalysisIraqViolent Extremism
The US and Iraq Must Shore Up the Fight against the Islamic State
May 8, 2020Charles W. DunneCharles W. Dunne argues that the fight against the Islamic State in Iraq faces numerous setbacks, including the coronavirus, and that the upcoming US-Iraq Stra…
- Policy AnalysisIranUS Foreign Policy
Worrisome American Response to Iran in the Gulf
May 5, 2020Abdulwahab Al-QassabAbdulwahab Al-Qassab examines the muted US response to Iranian provocations in the Arabian Gulf, surmising that it reflects poorly on the reputation of the Uni…
- Policy AnalysisIraqDemocracy and Governance
Confusion in Iraq: A Fractious Political Process and Free-Wheeling Militias
Mar 30, 2020Abdulwahab Al-QassabAbdulwahab al-Qassab highlights Iraq's current political problems and calls upon Iraqi politicians to put aside their differences and concentrate on how to avo…
- Policy AnalysisEgyptRegional Relations and Geopolitics
Egypt-Turkey Strained Relations: Implications for Regional Security
Mar 18, 2020Khalil Al-AnaniEgyptian-Turkish tensions over influence, Libya, the eastern Mediterranean, and the Gulf region have increased regional insecurity and require de-escalation an…
- Policy AnalysisSyriaConflicts and Conflict Resolution
The Struggle over Syria’s Idlib
Feb 28, 2020Radwan ZiadehThe Syrian regime’s killing of scores of Turkish soldiers in Idlib province will aggravate Turkish-Russian relations and take the crisis in Syria in a complete…
- Washington Policy WeeklyPalestine/IsraelUS Foreign Policy
“Your Proposal Attempts to Make a Genuine Two-State Solution Impossible”
Feb 12, 2020Marcus MontgomeryCongressional Democrats, Palestinians, and the broader international community still see too many problems with Trump’s proposed plan for Palestinian-Israeli p…
- Washington Policy WeeklyIranUS Foreign Policy
What is Congress Willing to Do to Avoid War with Iran?
Feb 6, 2020Marcus MontgomeryThis week, the House of Representatives took further decisive steps to try and prevent President Donald Trump from embroiling the United States in another war …
- Policy AnalysisUS Foreign Policy
There’s No Consensus on US Middle East Policy; Time to Apply the War Powers Act
Jan 23, 2020Charles W. DunneApplying the War Powers Act is one way of addressing the absence of a coherent American policy in the Middle East and avoiding a new US military engagement in …
- Policy AnalysisIranSecurity and Defense
Gulf Arab States Still Worried about a US-Iran War
Jan 23, 2020Gregory AftandilianGregory Aftandilian argues that Gulf Arab states increasingly view the United States as an unreliable and erratic ally and are urging restraint by Washington a…
- Policy AnalysisIranUS Foreign Policy
Washington’s Strategy in the Post-Soleimani Middle East
Jan 15, 2020Joe MacaronJoe Macaron writes that the post-Soleimani Middle East offers both challenges and opportunities but the Trump Administration does not seem to have a strategy t…
- Policy AnalysisIranUS Foreign Policy
Soleimani’s Assassination Backfires Big Time
Jan 7, 2020Daniel BrumbergWashington’s killing of Qassem Soleimani violates the red lines that the United States and Iran had previously respected in order to avoid escalation, and make…
- ViewpointIranUS Foreign Policy
A Middle East Calamity Is about to Unfold
Jan 3, 2020Imad K. HarbKilling Soleimani has put the Middle East at the edge of a dangerous abyss and hastened an inevitable confrontation between the United States and Iran.
- Policy AnalysisLibyaRegional Relations and Geopolitics
The Libya-Turkey Memorandum of Understanding: Local and Regional Repercussions
Jan 2, 2020Arab Center for Research and Policy Studies (ACRPS)The signing of the Libyan-Turkish memorandum of understanding on maritime sovereignty in the Eastern Mediterranean has coincided with increased tensions both w…
- Policy AnalysisIranRegional Relations and Geopolitics
The United States and Iran Readjust to New Realities in Iraq and Lebanon
Dec 18, 2019Joe MacaronAfter 15 years of rivalry in Iraq and Lebanon, the United States and Iran are adjusting their policies based on a new reality of popular uprisings that challen…
- Washington Policy WeeklyLevantUS Foreign Policy
Washington Grapples with How to Respond to Turbulent Middle East
Dec 11, 2019Marcus MontgomeryMarcus Montgomery examines the administration’s reassessment of its posture in the Middle East as officials grappled this week with how best to use military as…
- Washington Policy WeeklyLibyaUS Foreign Policy
The Conflict in Libya Resurfaces on Washington’s Agenda
Nov 27, 2019Marcus MontgomeryMarcus Montgomery discusses the renewed interest in both Congress and the Trump Administration to address the ongoing conflict in Libya and asks whether the Un…
- Policy AnalysisEgyptRegional Relations and Geopolitics
Closer Egyptian-Russian Relations Causing a Headache in Washington
Nov 26, 2019Gregory AftandilianGregory Aftandilian states that US officials are warning Egypt not to move ahead with the purchase of advanced Russian jet fighters; however, developing ties b…
- Policy AnalysisLebanonProtests and Activism
The Lebanese Uprising: No End in Sight for the Current Impasse
Nov 20, 2019Joe MacaronJoe Macaron explains the different factors of the current impasse between the Lebanese ruling political class and the protesters, seeing no end in sight for th…
- ViewpointLevantConflicts and Conflict Resolution
Trump’s Syria Decision and the Turkish Operation
Oct 10, 2019Radwan ZiadehWithout American forces on the ground, Washington will not be able to realize its objectives in Syria, especially in confronting the Iran-affiliated militias t…
- Policy AnalysisSecurity and Defense
Trump Puts His Stamp on a Generational Shift at the Pentagon
Oct 9, 2019Joe MacaronAs Trump backs away from US commitments in the Middle East, a new generation of Pentagon leadership is being tested in how to navigate war and peace decisions …
- Policy AnalysisSecurity and Defense
A Balance Sheet on America’s “War on Terror” in the Middle East
Oct 2, 2019Charles W. DunneAlthough al-Qaeda and the Islamic State may have lost much of their ability to mount major mass-casualty attacks in the United States and Europe, splinter grou…
- ViewpointIraqRegional Relations and Geopolitics
Disturbing Developments in Iraq’s Security Establishments
Oct 1, 2019Abdulwahab Al-QassabInterference by Iran and Iraqi political groups in the functioning of the Iraqi armed forces and security services has resulted in deteriorating discipline amo…
- Policy AnalysisIranConflicts and Conflict Resolution
Learning to Say “No” To Saudi Arabia on Iran and Yemen
Sep 25, 2019Daniel BrumbergDaniel Brumberg writes that against the background of the White House’s escalating conflict with Tehran, Washington seems unwilling or unable to break its habi…
- Policy AnalysisIranSecurity and Defense
Is an American-Iranian Dialogue Coming?
Sep 4, 2019Daniel BrumbergDaniel Brumberg writes that with increasing tensions in the Middle East and the strengthening position of Iranian hard-liners, Rouhani and Zarif might have mor…
- Policy AnalysisLevantSecurity and Defense
Should the United States Include Israel in the Gulf Maritime Coalition?
Aug 21, 2019Joe MacaronWashington’s decision to include Israel in the US-led maritime Gulf coalition might expand the theater of conflict between Israel and Iran, weaken Gulf allies,…
- Policy AnalysisThe Arabian Peninsula and The GulfConflicts and Conflict Resolution
Changes in UAE Policy: Reasons and Motivations
Aug 20, 2019Arab Center for Research and Policy Studies (ACRPS)he UAE considers this as the right moment to distance itself from confrontation, anticipating US-Iranian negotiations that might leave it to harvest the fruits…
- Policy AnalysisIranRegional Relations and Geopolitics
Hard Choices Facing Tehran and Washington
Jul 10, 2019Daniel BrumbergIf the Trump Administration decides to adhere to a strategy of pushing for regime change in Tehran, Iran’s leaders might eventually embrace a fraught nucleariz…
- Policy AnalysisIranSecurity and Defense
Iran: How Trump is Emboldening the Hawks and Hardliners
Jun 25, 2019Imad K. HarbUS hawks, their Gulf allies and Israel will see Trump's preference for avoiding military confrontation as capitulation.
- Policy Analysis
Identity Politics 2.0: Cyber Geopolitics and the Weaponization of Social Media
Jun 1, 2019Tamara KharroubThis paper is part of ACW's fourth book, titled The Arab World Beyond Conflict.In the months leading up to the attacks against the Rohingya Muslim minority in …
- Policy Analysis
The Legacy of the Pillared Arab State
Jun 1, 2019Daniel BrumbergThis paper is part of ACW's fourth book, titled The Arab World Beyond Conflict.IntroductionAmong other things, politics provides a means of managing conflicts.…
- Policy Analysis
Chronic Insecurity in the Middle East: Causes and Consequences
Jun 1, 2019Mehran KamravaThis paper is part of ACW's fourth book, titled The Arab World Beyond Conflict.Even before the discovery of oil in southwestern Iran at the start of the 20th c…
- Policy AnalysisSaudi ArabiaSecurity and Defense
How a Legal Loophole is Helping Trump Sell Arms to Saudi Arabia
May 28, 2019Marcus MontgomeryPresident Trump is using tensions with Iran to bypass Congress and push through weapons sales to Saudi Arabia and United Arab Emirates
- Policy AnalysisLevantDemocracy and Governance
American Campaigning Elevates Netanyahu’s Election Chances to New Heights
Mar 26, 2019Yousef MunayyerA historical look at shifting US policy positions demonstrates the significance of recognizing the Golan Heights as Israeli territory. The warm embrace and cam…
- Policy AnalysisEgyptSecurity and Defense
The US-Egypt Political-Military Relationship: A Critical Assessment
Mar 13, 2019Charles W. DunneOnce a pillar of American regional planning in the Middle East, Egypt’s relationship with the United States is likely to be reevaluated by the new House of Rep…
- Policy AnalysisIranIdentity Politics and Sectarianization
The Iranian Revolution at 40: The Politics of Supreme Leader Succession
Feb 26, 2019Daniel BrumbergAs Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei advances in age, he must be careful about how his actions domestically and internationally will affect the inevitable succession…
- Policy AnalysisDemocracy and Governance
How Principled Is US Realism in the Middle East?
Feb 22, 2019Charles W. DunneUS authority, credibility, and interests in the Middle East are paying the price for the administration's confusion and abandonment of principles in its foreig…
- Policy AnalysisEnergy and Economics
Trump’s Doomed Quest for a Middle East Strategic Alliance
Feb 5, 2019Daniel BrumbergTrump's Middle East Strategic Alliance is doomed because not all states there agree that Iran poses the biggest threat. A larger obstacle is the president's re…
- Policy AnalysisLibyaConflicts and Conflict Resolution
Libyans Should Decide Their Own Future: An Interview with Hani Shennib
Nov 20, 2018Imad K. HarbThe failure to address the root causes of the Libyan conflict is the main reason why Libya has not arrived at a peaceful resolution to its ongoing troubles.
- Policy AnalysisInternational Law
John Bolton vs. Bureaucratic Washington: Implications for the Middle East
Oct 11, 2018Marcus MontgomeryHow effectively Bolton steers the NSC through the gauntlet of Washington’s bureaucracy will go a long way in determining US policy toward the Middle East and N…
- Policy AnalysisThe Arabian Peninsula and The GulfSecurity and Defense
US Involvement in Yemen: Changing Course Required as Disaster Worsens
Sep 26, 2018Charles W. DunneWith no end in sight, no exit strategy, and little to show for its involvement so far, the US should revise its strategy soon or face mounting international an…
- Policy AnalysisLibyaDemocracy and Governance
Libya Cries Out for More International Commitment
Sep 7, 2018Imad K. HarbDespite the UN’s efforts to assist Libya, it remains up to the country’s leaders themselves to agree to a political settlement and begin to restore the authori…
- Policy AnalysisLevantSecurity and Defense
US Defense Budget Prioritizes Securing Israel over Deterring Iran
Aug 24, 2018Joe MacaronThe 2019 US defense budget reveals that the Trump administration has no clear way forward for Syria or Yemen and that its commitment to Israel exceeds the US d…
- ViewpointSecurity and Defense
An Arab NATO? The Folly of Trusting Trump
Jul 31, 2018Imad K. HarbThe Trump Administration is said to be pushing for establishing a Middle East Strategic Alliance (MESA). Discussions for the plan will be conducted during a su…
- Policy AnalysisIraqEnergy and Economics
Controlling the Nasib Crossing Is a Game Changer for the Syrian Regime
Jul 19, 2018Joe MacaronThe imminent opening of the Nasib crossing on the Syrian-Jordanian border could revitalize commercial activities in the Levant; but challenges lie ahead, inclu…
- Policy AnalysisJordanSecurity and Defense
It May Be Time to Restructure American Assistance to Jordan
Jun 15, 2018Marcus MontgomerySince May 30, the Hashemite Kingdom of Jordan has seen a wave of massive, largely peaceful protests that have King Abdullah II in a bind. The current turmoil h…
- Policy AnalysisLevantReligion and Politics
The Damascus-Aleppo Highway and Stabilizing Northwest Syria
Jun 7, 2018Joe MacaronWhile Russia, Turkey and Iran are stabilizing northwest Syria along the Damascus-Aleppo highway, they are also normalizing an irregular situation that could ul…
- Policy AnalysisNorth AfricaRegional Relations and Geopolitics
Political Calculations…from the Western Sahara to the Arabian Gulf
Jun 4, 2018Mohammed CherkaouiThe timing of Morocco’s decision to sever relations with Iran and to close the Iranian embassy in Rabat “immediately” on May 1, 2018, has raised questions abou…
- Policy Analysis
MEASURES OF STALEMATE IN THE GCC CRISIS
Jun 1, 2018Imad K. HarbThe current existential crisis in the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) began in May 2017 with a hacking operation of the Qatar News Agency website and the public…
- Policy AnalysisJordanConflicts and Conflict Resolution
Jordan’s Four Worst-case Scenarios on Its Syrian Border
Mar 30, 2018Joe MacaronJordan faces four worst-case scenarios as the US-Russia ceasefire agreement is gradually collapsing in southwestern Syria. Amman’s options to limit the damage …
- Policy AnalysisIranSecurity and Defense
Who is John Bolton? A Political Profile of the Next National Security Advisor
Mar 23, 2018Marcus MontgomeryWith the appointment of John Bolton as national security advisor, the United States risks turning the National Security Council into an echo chamber of hyper-n…
- Policy AnalysisSaudi ArabiaSecurity and Defense
Saudi Arabia, the UAE, and the Yemeni Hemorrhage
Mar 20, 2018Imad K. HarbIt is necessary to point out that the Saudi-led intervention in March 2015 has exacerbated human suffering and underscored the differences between Yemen’s elit…
- Policy AnalysisLebanonEnergy and Economics
A Saudi Comeback to Lebanese Politics?
Mar 14, 2018Joe MacaronNearly 100 days after his mysterious “captivity” in the Saudi capital, Lebanese Prime Minister Saad al-Hariri visited Riyadh again on February 28. The timing c…
- Policy AnalysisLevantSecurity and Defense
US Syria Policy: Juggling Contradictory Interests
Mar 13, 2018Gregory AftandilianUS policy in Syria, as articulated by Secretary of State Rex Tillerson, remains focused on the Islamic State, but it does little to bring about other stated go…