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SyriaMigrants, Refugees, and IDPsPolitics, Displacement, and the Human Toll of the Recent Earthquake in Syria
Mar 15, 2023Heba GowayedOn February 6, 2023, the earth shifted at the fault line that runs along the Turkey-Syria border, resulting in a 7.8 magnitude earthquake, which was followed j…
- Policy Analysis
SyriaSecurity and DefenseSyrian Kurds Are Hoping for, but Not Banking On, Continued US Partnership
Feb 24, 2023Gregory AftandilianThe massive earthquake that struck southern Turkey and northwestern Syria has given the Syrian Kurds a reprieve from a possible Turkish military invasion of ar…
- Policy Analysis
LevantDemocracy and GovernanceTurkey’s Presidential Election in the Shadow of Devastating Earthquakes
Feb 22, 2023Mustafa GurbuzThe devastating February 6 earthquakes in Turkey, which caused nearly 45,000 deaths in Turkey and Syria and rendered hundreds of thousands of people homeless, …
- Policy Analysis
SyriaMigrants, Refugees, and IDPsErdoğan’s Rapprochement with Assad Spells Trouble for Syrian Refugees
Feb 1, 2023Nabeel A. KhouryTurkish President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan’s interest in a rapprochement with Syrian President Bashar al-Assad is the latest chapter in his delicate domestic and r…
- Policy Analysis
TurkeyRegional Relations and GeopoliticsTurkey Faces a Dilemma in its Foreign Policy Toward Libya
Jan 24, 2023Mustafa GurbuzOn January 9, 2023, a Libyan court suspended an energy exploration deal between Turkey and Libya’s Tripoli-based Government of National Unity (GNU) that was or…
- Policy Analysis
TurkeyConflicts and Conflict ResolutionHow Realistic Is an Erdoğan-Assad Rapprochement?
Dec 28, 2022Mustafa GurbuzDespite Turkey’s frequent threats that it will soon undertake a new military ground offensive in northern Syria, no such operation has yet materialized. This h…
- Policy Analysis
TurkeyThe War in UkraineTurkey-Brokered Grain Deal Bolsters Erdoğan-Putin Partnership
Nov 22, 2022Mustafa GurbuzTurkey’s role in negotiations around Russia’s war in Ukraine has provided Ankara with extraordinary visibility on the global stage. Turkish President Recep Tay…
- Policy Analysis
EgyptRegional Relations and GeopoliticsEgypt-Turkey Relations: Challenges and Future Prospects
Oct 18, 2022Khalil Al-AnaniOver the past two years, several positive signs have emerged in the Egyptian-Turkish relationship that might result in the normalization of diplomatic relation…
- Policy Analysis
TurkeySecurity and DefenseTurkey’s Self-Fulfilling Prophecy in Iraq
Sep 28, 2022Mustafa GurbuzHead of Turkey's National Intelligence Organization Hakan Fidan’s recent visit to Baghdad was an attempt to heal wounds that were opened during a diplomatic ro…
- Policy Analysis
TurkeyRegional Relations and GeopoliticsErdoğan Bets on “Turkish Exceptionalism”
Aug 17, 2022Mustafa GurbuzMustafa Gurbuz analyzes Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan’s calculations as he increases his cooperation with Russian President Vladimir Putin, despite Tu…
- Policy Analysis
TurkeyMigrants, Refugees, and IDPsSyrian Refugees in Turkey Face an Uncertain Future
Jul 12, 2022Mustafa GurbuzIn the early hours of July 1, 2022, Turkish sources reported on a story of undocumented immigrants fleeing the Osmaniye Refugee Camp in southern Turkey. That s…
- Policy Analysis
TurkeyRegional Relations and GeopoliticsTurkish Reasons for a Rapprochement with Saudi Arabia
Jun 2, 2022Mustafa GurbuzTurkey’s President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan did not hide his main demand when he buried the case of Jamal Khashoggi, the Washington Post columnist who was killed o…
- Policy Analysis
Saudi ArabiaRegional Relations and GeopoliticsSaudi Reasons for a Rapprochement with Turkey
May 31, 2022Kristian Coates UlrichsenReports that Saudi Arabian Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman may be planning to visit Turkey as part of an international trip in June, one of his first outside …
- Policy Analysis
Palestine/IsraelRegional Relations and GeopoliticsMiddle East Leaders Contend with Strains in an Evolving Regional Entente
May 13, 2022Daniel BrumbergIn its unfolding bid to expand ties with Middle East governments, Israel must grapple with a basic challenge: how to ensure that events in the Palestinian-Isra…
- Policy Analysis
TurkeyThe War in UkraineThe Syrian Connection in the Turkish-Russian Tango
Apr 4, 2022Mustafa GurbuzLeveraging its close relations with both sides of the Ukraine conflict, Turkey has seized the opportunity to highlight its strategic importance. The latest Rus…
- Policy Analysis
TurkeyRegional Relations and GeopoliticsIsrael and Turkey Ponder the Costs and Benefits of Rapprochement
Feb 25, 2022Daniel BrumbergOn February 6, Haaretz reported that Israeli President Isaac Herzog called to wish Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan and his wife a speedy recovery, after…
- Policy Analysis
TurkeyRegional Relations and GeopoliticsTurkey’s Evolving Policy toward Iran
Feb 16, 2022Mustafa GurbuzTurkish Foreign Minister Mevlut Cavusoğlu’s official call to his Israeli counterpart was a rarity since the Erdoğan-Peres confrontation in Davos in January 200…
- Policy Analysis
Saudi ArabiaRegional Relations and GeopoliticsAfter Parting Ways: The Coming Frosty Entente in Saudi-Turkish Relations
Feb 2, 2022Jana J. JabbourThis is likely to be Turkey’s year of normalization with regional counterparts, as 2021 was one of diplomatic restoration for Turkish foreign policy. While in …
- Policy Analysis
The Arabian Peninsula and The GulfRegional Relations and GeopoliticsTurkey and the Gulf States: A New Era of Détente
Dec 8, 2021Mustafa GurbuzTurkish officials celebrated the November 24 visit of Abu Dhabi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Zayed Al Nahyan to Ankara as the beginning of “a new era” between Tur…
- Policy Analysis
EgyptReligion and PoliticsEgypt’s Muslim Brotherhood: Old Problems and New Divisions
Nov 3, 2021Khalil Al-AnaniSince its removal from power in 2013, the Muslim Brotherhood in Egypt continues to face many problems and challenges. Having always prided itself on being the …
- Policy Analysis
TurkeySecurity and DefenseDrumbeats of Turkey’s Next Military Invasion of Syria
Oct 20, 2021Mustafa GurbuzTurkish officials continue to repeat their warning that a military operation in northern Syria may be imminent, blaming both Washington and Moscow for not fulf…
- Policy Analysis
TurkeyRegional Relations and GeopoliticsTurkey’s Relentless Bid for Afghanistan
Aug 31, 2021Mustafa GurbuzThe Taliban’s astonishing seizure of all of Afghanistan dashed the Turkish government’s earlier hope to take charge of Kabul Airport. Turkey’s President Recep …
- Policy Analysis
TurkeyUS Foreign PolicyThe Path to Armenian Genocide Recognition: A Lesson for Palestine Activists?
May 6, 2021Gregory AftandilianThe century-old struggle by the Armenian American community for US recognition that the large-scale massacres and deportations of their people in the Ottoman E…
- Policy Analysis
TurkeyRegional Relations and GeopoliticsTurkish-Egyptian Reconciliation Efforts Echo a Shifting Regional Order
Mar 26, 2021Daniel BrumbergOver the past month, Turkey has taken steps to restore diplomatic relations with Egypt. That President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan has spearheaded this effort is para…
- Policy Analysis
TurkeyUS Foreign PolicyWhat Awaits US-Turkey Relations in the Biden Era?
Dec 9, 2020Mustafa GurbuzA few weeks before the November elections, a video clip of then-presidential candidate Joe Biden went viral in Turkey and caused a stir inside the Turkish gove…
- Policy Analysis
SyriaRegional Relations and GeopoliticsRussian-Turkish-Iranian Cross-Purposes on Syria’s Future
Sep 8, 2020Daniel BrumbergOn August 24, the United Nations-sponsored Syrian Constitutional Committee meetings reconvened in Geneva. UN Envoy Geir Peterson, the chair of the meeting, dec…
- Policy Analysis
TurkeyRegional Relations and GeopoliticsTurkey’s Activist Regional Policies Are a Double-Edged Sword
Jul 21, 2020Gregory AftandilianGregory Aftandilian explains that although Turkey has scored points in the Arab world with its support for the Palestinians, its activist posture and intervent…
- Policy Analysis
LibyaUS Foreign PolicyBy Sanctioning Turkey’s Role in Libya, Trump Emboldens Erdoğan in the Eastern Mediterranean
Jul 10, 2020Joe MacaronEvaluating the Trump Administration's policy toward Libya, Joe Macaron writes that from giving a green light to Haftar to march toward Tripoli to endorsing Tur…
- Policy Analysis
SyriaRegional Relations and GeopoliticsRussian-Turkish Tensions in Syria May Help Mend the US-Turkish Divide
Mar 20, 2020Daniel BrumbergDaniel Brumberg studies the intricacies of Turkey's involvement in Syria and accommodation with Russia as it simultaneously hopes to enlist the assistance of t…
- Policy Analysis
EgyptRegional Relations and GeopoliticsEgypt-Turkey Strained Relations: Implications for Regional Security
Mar 18, 2020Khalil Al-AnaniEgyptian-Turkish tensions over influence, Libya, the eastern Mediterranean, and the Gulf region have increased regional insecurity and require de-escalation an…
- Policy Analysis
SyriaRegional Relations and GeopoliticsComplications for Turkey in Idlib
Mar 17, 2020Mustafa GurbuzAnkara’s options in Idlib are extremely limited as it must enforce moderation on the part of the extremists as well as address the refugee crisis.
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LibyaRegional Relations and GeopoliticsTurkey’s Growing Role in Libya: Motives, Background, and Responses
Jan 9, 2020Arab Center for Research and Policy Studies (ACRPS)There are fears that external interventions in Libya may prolong its conflict and threaten the future and territorial integrity of the country. Read this analy…
- Policy Analysis
LibyaRegional Relations and GeopoliticsIs Turkey Playing with Fire in Libya?
Jan 6, 2020Mustafa GurbuzTurkish troops aim to buttress Libya's Government of National Accord, but escalating tensions in the Mediterranean may actually harm both Ankara and Tripoli.
- Policy Analysis
LibyaRegional Relations and GeopoliticsThe Libya-Turkey Memorandum of Understanding: Local and Regional Repercussions
Jan 2, 2020Arab Center for Research and Policy Studies (ACRPS)The signing of the Libyan-Turkish memorandum of understanding on maritime sovereignty in the Eastern Mediterranean has coincided with increased tensions both w…
- Policy Analysis
SyriaRegional Relations and GeopoliticsRussia’s Gains in Syria Could Be a Blessing in Disguise
Nov 6, 2019Joe MacaronJoe Macaron argues that while Russia may fill the vacuum left by the withdrawal of American troops from the Turkish-Syrian border, it could have challenges dea…
- Policy Analysis
SyriaRegional Relations and GeopoliticsThe Russia-Turkey Deal for Syria Will Go Nowhere
Nov 5, 2019Mustafa GurbuzMustafa Gurbuz analyzes the problems in implementing the initial phase of the latest Turkish-Russian agreement in Syria, concluding they indicate that the deal…
- Policy Analysis
LevantConflicts and Conflict ResolutionThe Turkish Military Operation in Northeastern Syria: Scope, Aims and Reactions
Oct 17, 2019Arab Center for Research and Policy Studies (ACRPS)Turkey seems to be in a hurry to achieve its operational goals before pressure increases to bring the operation to an end or in order to pre-empt any operation…
- Policy Analysis
LevantConflicts and Conflict ResolutionConfusion in Turkey’s Regional Foreign Policy
Oct 8, 2019Mustafa GurbuzTurkish foreign policy choices in Syria, Sudan, Libya, and Somalia are plagued with contradictions that may lead to self-defeating outcomes.
- Policy Analysis
LevantJustice, Equality, and Human RightsTurkey’s Nativist Turn against Syrian Refugees and Other Arabs
Jul 23, 2019Mustafa GurbuzThe key drivers that fuel the recent nativist sentiment in Turkey are the worsening economy and the politicization of the refugee issue by divisive election ca…
- Policy Analysis
LevantConflicts and Conflict ResolutionA US-Turkish Agreement Remains a Challenge in Northeastern Syria
Jun 26, 2019Joe MacaronUS officials may be rushing a deal with Turkey in northeastern Syria that could lead to a Turkish-Kurdish confrontation and stall the American withdrawal from …
- Policy Analysis
LevantDemocracy and GovernanceTurkey after the Heated Municipal Elections: Key Takeaways
Apr 8, 2019Mustafa GurbuzThe results of the municipal elections in Turkey have surprised many including the ruling AKP, which called them a “coup” and demanded a recount in Istanbul an…
- Policy Analysis
IraqSecurity and DefenseThe United States and the Turkish-Kurdish Conundrum in Northern Syria
Jan 11, 2019Mustafa GurbuzFuture US-Turkey relations depend on Ankara’s demands in northern Syria regarding the Kurds and how its relationship with Moscow develops.
- Policy Analysis
Saudi ArabiaDemocracy and GovernanceThe Aftermath of the Khashoggi Murder: Freedom of the Press in 2018
Dec 21, 2018Tamara KharroubThe rise of populism and anti-globalism has contributed to erosion of the international rights system, with governments moving away from accountability and tra…
- Policy Analysis
SyriaConflicts and Conflict ResolutionWill the Istanbul Summit Offer Hope for Syria?
Nov 1, 2018Joe MacaronThe Istanbul summit on Syria was the first serious attempt in years to advance a viable Syrian political process; but obstacles remain, including American-Russ…
- Policy Analysis
LevantConflicts and Conflict ResolutionSochi Agreement on Idlib Tests Russian-Turkish Relations
Oct 19, 2018Joe MacaronThe irregularities in implementing the Sochi Agreement regarding Idlib will put Russian-Turkish relations to the test and may doom the Idlib ceasefire.
- Policy Analysis
LevantUS Foreign PolicyThe Trump Administration’s Grandstand on Idlib
Sep 7, 2018Joe MacaronAs Russia and the Syrian regime gear up for the Idlib offensive, the United States is giving Moscow a free hand short of using chemical weapons.
- Policy Analysis
LevantConflicts and Conflict ResolutionThe Ticking Time Bomb of Northern Syria
Aug 15, 2018Mustafa GurbuzThe Assad regime’s coming Idlib offensive will cause serious troubles and endanger the US security structure in northern Syria.
- Policy Analysis
LevantDemocracy and GovernanceTurkey’s New Regime under Erdoğan: Implications for the Arab World
Jul 10, 2018Mustafa GurbuzIn the new order in Turkey, Erdoğan’s increasing dependence on Turkish nationalists will be a significant factor in shaping the country’s foreign policy in Syr…
- Policy Analysis
LevantEnergy and EconomicsBetween Idealism and Realpolitik: Erdoğan’s Quest for Palestine
Apr 26, 2018Mustafa GurbuzTurkey’s active policy for Palestine enables Ankara to strengthen its ties to the Palestinian Authority and Hamas simultaneously and thus to bolster its role a…
- Policy Analysis
LevantIdentity Politics and SectarianizationThe Looming Threat of Kurdish-Arab Strife in Northern Syria
Apr 9, 2018Mustafa GurbuzThe latest developments in northern Syria signal a clear threat of rising Arab-Kurdish tensions that could boil over if local, regional, and international play…
- Policy Analysis
LevantEnergy and EconomicsTurkey’s Challenge to Arab Interests in the Horn of Africa
Feb 22, 2018Mustafa GurbuzTurkey’s policies and many activities around the Red Sea and the Horn of Africa have added complications to the already complex strategic picture of the Middle…
- Policy Analysis
LevantSecurity and DefenseThe War of Others on Syria’s Soil
Feb 20, 2018Radwan ZiadehThe late diplomat, politician, and publisher of the influential Lebanese daily An-Nahar, Ghassan Tueni, characterized the 15-year Lebanese civil war as “a war …
- Policy Analysis
LevantSecurity and DefenseThe Battle of Afrin and the Future of the Free Syrian Army
Feb 2, 2018Radwan ZiadehLow levels of mutual confidence between Washington and Ankara have subjected the American-Turkish strategic relationship to unwarranted dangers and challenges.
- Policy Analysis
LevantConflicts and Conflict ResolutionTurkey’s Kurdish Conundrum in Syria
Jan 24, 2018Mustafa GurbuzAs Turkey conducts its military operations against Syrian Kurdish militiamen ostensibly to secure its border with Syria, it finds itself needing to reconcile d…
- Policy Analysis
IraqDemocracy and GovernanceUnsettling Times for Iraqi Kurdistan
Jan 10, 2018Mustafa GurbuzThe Sulaymaniyah protests last December have revealed a deep split in Iraqi Kurdistan. By pitting Sulaymaniyah against Irbil, Baghdad aims to capitalize on the…
- Policy Analysis
LevantReligion and PoliticsThe Many Angles of Turkey’s Fight for Jerusalem
Dec 28, 2017Mustafa GurbuzTurkey’s championing of the cause of Jerusalem is genuine but also serves its interest in restoring its relations with the Arab countries and increasing its so…
- Policy Analysis
LevantEnergy and EconomicsTurkey’s Policy toward a Fractured Libya
Dec 12, 2017Mustafa GurbuzTurkey is interested in being on good terms with all Libyan factions but is caught up in the complex relations between Libya’s political forces and their regio…
- Policy Analysis
LevantRegional Relations and GeopoliticsAnkara’s Ambiguous Policy toward a Divided GCC
Oct 30, 2017Mustafa GurbuzAs a key player in the GCC crisis, Turkey has tried to support Qatar while avoiding potential deterioration in Ankara-GCC relations, which would result in nega…
- Policy Analysis
LevantMigrants, Refugees, and IDPsThe Challenges of Turkey’s Operation in Syria’s Idlib
Oct 19, 2017Mustafa GurbuzTurkey is concerned about who controls neighboring Idlib Province in Syria but is equally interested in thwarting the Syrian Kurds’ plans for autonomy south of…
- Policy Analysis
IraqIdentity Politics and SectarianizationDoes Turkey Really Want to Punish Iraqi Kurdistan?
Oct 3, 2017Mustafa GurbuzTurkey may feel that it has to impose punitive measures against Iraqi Kurdistan over the referendum but countervailing Turkish domestic political conditions ma…
- Policy Analysis
IranConflicts and Conflict ResolutionIs the Turkey-Iran Rapprochement Durable in Iraq and Syria?
Aug 24, 2017Mustafa GurbuzGiven the historical nature of the Turkish-Iranian rivalry, a durable rapprochement between Turkey and Iran requires assurances about the future of the Kurds a…
- Policy Analysis
IraqIdentity Politics and SectarianizationThe Independence Referendum: A Pyrrhic Victory for Barzani
Jul 10, 2017Mustafa GurbuzThe Kurdish decision to hold a referendum on independence from Iraq may bring happiness to the Kurds but will come at a heavy price for the Kurdish leadership.
- Policy Analysis
EgyptConflicts and Conflict ResolutionTurkish-Egyptian Relations: Nowhere to Go but Up
May 30, 2017Charles W. DunneEgypt and Turkey, both staunch US allies, have found themselves locked in a war of words—and worse—for nearly four years since the overthrow of President Moham…
- Policy Analysis
LevantConflicts and Conflict ResolutionBeyond the Trump-Erdoğan Meeting: The Rise of Eurasianists and Turkey’s Syria Policy
May 23, 2017Mustafa GurbuzA structural change in Turkey’s political system is gradually forcing serious changes in the country’s foreign policy toward Syria, the Gulf countries, Russia,…
- Policy Analysis
LevantMigrants, Refugees, and IDPsWill Erdogan’s Victory Usher Dramatic Changes in Turkish Foreign Policy?
Apr 25, 2017Mustafa GurbuzSince becoming Turkey’s president in July 2014, Recep Tayyip Erdoğan has pursued a protracted campaign to win constitutional changes that would grant him more …
- Policy Analysis
IranIdentity Politics and SectarianizationTurkey-Iran Relations: A Sectarian Future?
Mar 8, 2017Mustafa GurbuzThe Syrian war and ensuing crisis in Iraq have put Turkey and Iran in an unprecedented sectarian rivalry. Competition over Iraqi Kurdistan will be a major test…
- Policy Analysis
IraqIdentity Politics and SectarianizationTurkish-Iraqi Relations: Old Trends and Future Possibilities
Jan 17, 2017Abdulwahab Al-QassabRelations between Iraq and Turkey have been cordial and cautious since Iraq became independent of Ottoman suzerainty after WWI, when British forces invaded and…
