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- Policy AnalysisThe Arabian Peninsula and The GulfRegional Relations and Geopolitics
GCC States Seek Diplomacy During US Absence
Nov 12, 2024Kristian Coates UlrichsenThe expansion and partial regionalization of what is already the longest and deadliest conflict in the Israeli-Palestinian arena since 1948 presents the Gulf A…
- Policy AnalysisThe Arab WorldUS Foreign Policy
A Second Trump Administration: Potential Policy Toward the Middle East
Nov 5, 2024Charles W. DunneThe November 5 presidential election is likely to have major implications for US foreign policy, as it pits a centrist and robust internationalist candidate (V…
- Policy AnalysisPalestine/IsraelConflicts and Conflict Resolution
One Year After October 7: Israel Descends into Endless War
Oct 11, 2024Daniel BrumbergAmong the many moments described in the Washington Post’s recent article on the Biden administration’s failed efforts to secure a ceasefire in Gaza, one stands…
- Policy AnalysisIranDemocracy and Governance
Iran’s New President and Foreign Minister Stand on the Edge of a Precipice
Aug 30, 2024Daniel BrumbergCommenting on Hezbollah’s retaliation to Israel’s August 25 pre-emptive strike on its positions, Iranian Foreign Ministry spokesman Nasser Kanaani asserted tha…
- Policy AnalysisIranDemocracy and Governance
Iran’s New President Must Navigate Dangerous Waters
Aug 1, 2024Daniel BrumbergFor the third time in the young history of the Islamic Republic of Iran, a political leader identified with the “Reformist” camp has won the presidency. Masoud…
- Policy AnalysisIranDemocracy and Governance
Will Ebrahim Raisi’s Death Help Ultra-Hardliners ‘Make Iran Great Again’?
May 31, 2024Daniel BrumbergThe May 19 deaths of President Ebrahim Raisi and Foreign Minister Hossein Amir-Abdollahian in a fiery helicopter crash has created a challenge that Iran’s lead…
- Policy AnalysisUAERegional Relations and Geopolitics
UAE Restricts US Military Strikes from Its Territory
May 22, 2024Gregory AftandilianFearing an attack by Iran or its allied militias in the region, the United Arab Emirates (UAE) has restricted US military aircraft from targeting these proxy g…
- ViewpointIranDemocracy and Governance
Raisi Departs, But Iran Remains Khamenei’s Realm
May 20, 2024Imad K. HarbIranian President Ebrahim Raisi’s death comes at a particularly precarious time for the Islamic Republic. While important, considering the monumental news, Sup…
- Policy AnalysisThe Arabian Peninsula and The GulfConflicts and Conflict Resolution
Gulf Arab States Avoid Iran-Israel Tensions
Apr 25, 2024Kristian Coates UlrichsenYears of shadow conflict between Israel and Iran, which included targeted assassinations as well as cyberattacks, gave way in April to direct confrontation and…
- ViewpointIranConflicts and Conflict Resolution
A Failed Iranian Performance and Its Repercussions
Apr 15, 2024Imad K. HarbRare are the occasions when a purportedly capable country’s determined military response to attack turns out to be a mere theatrical performance. Such was the …
- Policy AnalysisIranConflicts and Conflict Resolution
Iran Between Managing Allies and Modulating Its Deterrence
Jan 25, 2024Daniel BrumbergThis is a bad time for Iran to become embroiled in an expanding regional war that pits the Islamic Republic and its allies in Iraq, Lebanon, and Yemen against …
- Policy AnalysisIranRegional Relations and Geopolitics
Hamas’s “Al-Aqsa Flood” Challenges Iran’s Axis of Resistance
Nov 27, 2023Daniel BrumbergWhile the Biden administration, with Qatar’s support, has succeeded in securing a deal with Israel and Hamas for a combat “pause,” it remains to be seen if thi…
- Policy AnalysisLevantUS Foreign Policy
US Military Presence in the Middle East: Deterrence and Retaliation
Nov 14, 2023Gregory AftandilianThe United States has recently bolstered its military presence in the Middle East as the Israeli war on Gaza escalated. Bolstering this presence is meant to de…
- Policy AnalysisIranRegional Relations and Geopolitics
On the Limits of Iran’s Policy of “Maximum Tactical Flexibility”
Oct 13, 2023Daniel BrumbergAt some point, the tactical balls Tehran has been juggling could fall to the ground with unpredictable or dangerous strategic results.
- Policy AnalysisIranUS Foreign Policy
Are the United States and Iran Moving Closer to a New Nuclear Deal?
Jul 14, 2023Arab Center for Research and Policy StudiesThe last few weeks have witnessed an active diplomatic movement between Tehran and Western countries, especially the United States, regarding resolving the cri…
- Policy AnalysisIranRegional Relations and Geopolitics
Despite US Efforts, Iran is Ascendant
Jun 21, 2023Charles W. DunneIran today is not nearly as isolated as Washington had hoped and it has scored some impressive successes in advancing its regional agenda.
- Policy AnalysisEgyptRegional Relations and Geopolitics
Egypt and Iran: A Quest for Normalized Ties Amid Significant Obstacles
Jun 9, 2023Khalil Al-AnaniEgypt and Iran appear to be moving toward a closer relationship and a mending of ties. In recent months, officials from both countries have engaged in multiple…
- Policy AnalysisIranSecurity and Defense
Iran’s Nuclear Program Poses Challenges for China and the United States
Mar 29, 2023Daniel BrumbergNow that China has brokered a renewal of relations between Iran and Saudi Arabia, it must translate that achievement into real tangible benefits. After all, fo…
- Policy AnalysisThe Arabian Peninsula and The GulfRegional Relations and Geopolitics
The GCC Is On Board with the Saudi-Iran Agreement
Mar 27, 2023Kristian Coates UlrichsenThe signing of a joint trilateral statement by senior national security officials from Saudi Arabia and Iran in the presence of Chinese officials in Beijing on…
- Policy AnalysisYemenConflicts and Conflict Resolution
Yemen and the Saudi-Iran Rapprochement
Mar 22, 2023Nabeel A. KhouryIn the closing scene of the 1942 film Casablanca, Humphrey Bogart, walking off into the fog with his occasional nemesis as they plan their next move together, …
- Policy AnalysisLebanonRegional Relations and Geopolitics
Lebanon and Syria and the Saudi-Iran Detente
Mar 21, 2023Imad K. HarbThe recent China-brokered agreement between Saudi Arabia and the Islamic Republic of Iran is expected to have a de-escalating effect on many issues in the Midd…
- Policy AnalysisThe Arabian Peninsula and The GulfRegional Relations and Geopolitics
China as Middle East Matchmaker
Mar 16, 2023Daniel BrumbergWhile the central role that China recently played in renewing diplomatic relations between Iran and Saudi Arabia underscores the United States’ declining influ…
- Policy AnalysisIranDemocracy and Governance
Succeeding Khamenei: Can Iran’s Leaders Reinvent Their Islamic Republic?
Feb 3, 2023Daniel BrumbergIran’s Supreme Leader, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, is 83 years old. And while he has lived long enough to see the 44th anniversary of the Iranian Revolution, the s…
- Policy AnalysisIranProtests and Activism
Have Iran’s Leaders Come to Another Crossroads?
Dec 14, 2022Daniel BrumbergDaniel Brumberg examines the ongoing protests in Iran and the country’s hardline response, stressing that the disturbances are unlikely to lead to the collapse…
- Policy AnalysisIranUS Domestic Politics and Elections
The US Midterm Elections Spell Further Trouble for the JCPOA
Dec 2, 2022Douglas ChristensenIn November, Americans went to the polls to cast their votes in the congressional midterm elections. In the end, voters dealt a major blow to Republican party …
- Policy AnalysisIranProtests and Activism
Tensions Among Iran’s Nervous Ruling Elites
Oct 24, 2022Daniel BrumbergOne of the keys to understanding the Islamic Republic of Iran is that despite the regime’s still formidable grip on power, its ruling elite believe that the re…
- Policy AnalysisIranSecurity and Defense
Iran-Israel Drone Competition and the Changing Nature of Warfare in the Middle East
Oct 13, 2022Bishara A. BahbahUnmanned aerial vehicles (UAVs), commonly known as drones, have been widely used in recent armed conflicts, particularly in the Middle East. Their low cost and…
- Policy AnalysisIranProtests and Activism
Iran’s Ongoing Protests: Potential Scenarios During a Dangerous Time
Sep 30, 2022Daniel BrumbergTo adapt the famous opening line of Leo Tolstoy's Anna Karenina, it may be said that while all states are paradoxical, every state is paradoxical in its own wa…
- Policy AnalysisIraqIdentity Politics and Sectarianization
Iran’s Cautious Stance on Iraq’s Current Political Crisis
Sep 27, 2022Zeidon AlkinaniIraqi politicians have repeatedly failed to form a government in the eleven months that have passed since the country’s October 2021 elections, in large part d…
- Policy AnalysisIranUS Foreign Policy
No Plan B for the US as Geostrategic Shifts Threaten to Scuttle Iran Nuclear Deal
Sep 20, 2022Daniel BrumbergWhat a difference a few days can make in the Middle East. On August 28 National Security Council Spokesperson John Kirby addressed the diplomatic maneuvering t…
- Policy AnalysisIranReligion and Politics
Assault on Salman Rushdie Generates Diplomatic and Political Tremors
Sep 2, 2022Daniel BrumbergIt will probably never be known whether the 24-year-old Lebanese American man who repeatedly stabbed world-renowned author Salman Rushdie on August 12 acted wi…
- Policy AnalysisIranUS Foreign Policy
US Diplomacy with Iran Is Needed to Achieve Security in the Middle East
Jul 28, 2022Daniel BrumbergNow that President Joe Biden has completed his trip to the Middle East, his administration will likely make one last bid to revive the 2015 Iran nuclear deal, …
- Policy AnalysisThe Arabian Peninsula and The GulfUS Foreign Policy
The Biden Administration Is Struggling to Develop a Middle East Strategy
Jun 10, 2022Daniel BrumbergDespite the declining capacity of the United States to shape the Middle East’s strategic architecture, it is unlikely that effective regional solutions to secu…
- Policy AnalysisIranMedia and Technology
Information Controls in Iranian Cyberspace: A Soft War Strategy
May 23, 2022Arab Center for Research and Policy StudiesWhile the Islamic Republic of Iran undoubtedly uses cyberspace for censorship and surveillance of its citizens, including cyber warfare to damage information s…
- Policy AnalysisLebanonIdentity Politics and Sectarianization
Hezbollah Mirrors a Weak State and a Turbulent Region
Apr 13, 2022Nabeel A. KhouryIn the eyes of an observant analyst, “While it is customary to characterize Hezbollah as a ‘state within a state,’ it is more accurate now to define it as a ‘s…
- Policy AnalysisIranSecurity and Defense
Israel-Iran Shadow War in Syria intensifies Amid International Developments
Mar 23, 2022Gregory AftandilianThe ongoing military conflict between Israel and Iran (along with Iran-backed Shia forces like Hezbollah) in Syria show no signs of easing despite the Russia-U…
- Policy AnalysisIranConflicts and Conflict Resolution
Iran and Israel Deal with the Rampaging Russian Bear
Mar 16, 2022Daniel BrumbergRussia’s invasion of Ukraine has produced some unusual bedfellows, the strangest of whom are Iran and Israel. Perhaps the term “bedfellows” is an exaggeration,…
- Policy AnalysisTurkeyRegional Relations and Geopolitics
Turkey’s Evolving Policy toward Iran
Feb 16, 2022Mustafa GurbuzTurkish Foreign Minister Mevlut Cavusoğlu’s official call to his Israeli counterpart was a rarity since the Erdoğan-Peres confrontation in Davos in January 200…
- Policy AnalysisIranRegional Relations and Geopolitics
Ukraine’s Geostrategic Tremors Reach into the Middle East
Jan 13, 2022Daniel BrumbergDaniel Brumberg disentangles the complications arising from the current tensions between Ukraine and Russia and their impact on US-Russian relations as well as…
- Policy AnalysisIraqDemocracy and Governance
Iraq’s Post-Election Government Formation: Political Deadlock
Dec 28, 2021Zeidon AlkinaniMajor changes to the Iraqi political scene are awaiting the formation of a new government following the results of the early parliamentary election that took p…
- Policy AnalysisIranUS Foreign Policy
High Stakes at the Vienna Nuclear Talks with Iran
Dec 8, 2021Daniel BrumbergThe ongoing indirect US-Iran negotiations in Vienna on the future of the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA) have thus far made little progress. Already…
- Policy AnalysisSaudi ArabiaRegional Relations and Geopolitics
The Limits of Saudi-Iranian Détente
Oct 29, 2021Daniel BrumbergDuring his years in the Nixon White House in the 1970s, former Secretary of State Henry Kissinger sought to manage the US-Soviet rivalry by creating arenas of …
- Policy AnalysisThe Arabian Peninsula and The GulfRegional Relations and Geopolitics
A New Strategic Architecture Is Emerging in the Gulf
Sep 24, 2021Imad K. HarbAs the Gulf crisis of 2017 recedes into memory, following the reconciliation in January at the “solidarity and stability” summit in Saudi Arabia’s al-Ula on th…
- Policy AnalysisIranRegional Relations and Geopolitics
Iran’s Hard-liners Pursue a Complex Resistance Strategy
Sep 23, 2021Daniel BrumbergWhile the election of Ebrahim Raisi to the Iranian presidency and the appointment of Hossein Amir-Abdollahian as foreign minister signal a clear victory for th…
- Policy AnalysisSaudi ArabiaRegional Relations and Geopolitics
A Saudi-Iranian Rapprochement Still Has a Long Way to Go
Sep 21, 2021Gregory AftandilianTalks in Baghdad between officials of Saudi Arabia and Iran, which have been held periodically since April, have fueled speculation that these two regional pow…
- Policy AnalysisIranRegional Relations and Geopolitics
Iran Prepares for a New “Great Game” in Afghanistan
Sep 2, 2021Daniel BrumbergUntil the horrific August 26 attack outside Kabul’s Hamid Karzai International Airport, Iran’s bottom line on a new Afghan political order was in fact similar …
- Policy AnalysisLebanonEnergy and Economics
Lebanon’s Energy Crisis Fuels US-Iran Tensions
Aug 25, 2021Joe MacaronIn the midst of an economic collapse and an energy crisis, Lebanon has found itself in a tug of war between the United States and Iran. On August 19, Hezbollah…
- ViewpointIraq
Iran’s Presidential Election as Viewed in Iraq
Jun 29, 2021Abdulwahab Al-QassabAll political developments in Iran have serious repercussions in Iraq, and the election of Ibrahim Raisi as president of the Islamic Republic is no different. …
- Policy AnalysisIranUS Foreign Policy
Raisi’s Election Creates Opportunities and Pitfalls for Iran’s Islamic Republic
Jun 25, 2021Daniel BrumbergIn the weeks leading up to Iran’s June 18 presidential elections, one joke making the rounds was that Ebrahim Raisi, then a candidate and now the winner, was r…
- Policy AnalysisIranRegional Relations and Geopolitics
Iran Plays a Diplomatically Cautious (and Smart) Game on Gaza
May 22, 2021Daniel BrumbergIt’s not every day that Hamas leaders openly plead for Tehran’s support. But this is apparently what happened when, as the battle between Gaza’s militant grou…
- Policy AnalysisIranUS Foreign Policy
The Israeli Factor in the US-Iran Nuclear Talks
May 6, 2021Joe MacaronAs US Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin was visiting Israel on April 11, Israel’s Mossad intelligence agency orchestrated a mysterious explosion in Iran’s Natanz …
- Policy AnalysisPalestine/IsraelUS Foreign Policy
Will the Natanz Incident Produce Maximum Diplomacy?
Apr 23, 2021Daniel BrumbergJust two days after what appeared to be an Israeli-backed sabotage of Iran’s Natanz enrichment facilities, The Washington Post’s editorial board declared that …
- Policy AnalysisIranUS Foreign Policy
Hard-liners Fight for Iran’s Presidency and Foreign Policy
Mar 17, 2021Daniel BrumbergFormer US Energy Secretary Ernest Moniz, who during the Obama Administration played a pivotal role in negotiating the 2015 Iran nuclear deal, recently asserted…
- Policy AnalysisIranUS Foreign Policy
The US and Iran: From Brinkmanship to Negotiations?
Feb 25, 2021Daniel BrumbergIn his far-ranging February 21 interview with Iran’s Press TV, Iranian Foreign Minister Mohammad Javad Zarif reiterated a bottom line: that Iran would step awa…
- Policy AnalysisThe Arabian Peninsula and The GulfUS Foreign Policy
Biden will Contend with Divergent Middle East Preferences on Iran
Jan 27, 2021Daniel BrumbergThe Middle East is experiencing a period of diplomatic and strategic readjustment that will create both challenges and opportunities for the Biden Administrati…
- Policy AnalysisIranUS Foreign Policy
Iran between Avenging Soleimani and Engaging Biden
Jan 27, 2021Joe MacaronTwo events in January serve as reminders of how US-Iran dynamics are pulled in two different directions: the inauguration of President Joe Biden on January 20,…
- Policy AnalysisThe Arabian Peninsula and The GulfUS Foreign Policy
The Biden Administration’s Foreign Policy: Key Features and Likely Changes
Jan 6, 2021Unit for Political StudiesHaving won the American presidential election, and despite incumbent President Donald Trump’s refusal to concede, Democratic candidate and President-elect Joe …
- ViewpointThe Arabian Peninsula and The GulfDemocracy and Governance
Arab Public Opinion on National Security and Foreign Intervention
Nov 17, 2020Joe MacaronThe Arab League celebrated its 75th anniversary this year in the midst of regional politics that have never been more polarized, with continuous foreign interv…
- Policy AnalysisIranUS Foreign Policy
Iran and the World Wait for Biden
Nov 5, 2020Daniel BrumbergIranian leaders have insisted that the November 3rd US elections would have no real significance for Iran’s basic interests. But such assertions should not be …
- Policy AnalysisLebanonRegional Relations and Geopolitics
After the Beirut Blast: Hezbollah and Iran Walk a Tricky Line
Aug 26, 2020Daniel BrumbergDaniel Brumberg argues that Hezbollah and Iran are vested in preserving the current political system in Lebanon whose confessional institutions enable the part…
- Policy AnalysisIranRegional Relations and Geopolitics
Iran’s Hard-liners Grapple with the Trap of Securitizing the State
Jul 13, 2020Daniel BrumbergDaniel Brumberg argues that Iran's hard-liners have savored the victory of last February's parliamentary elections and are now preparing for the 2021 president…
- Policy AnalysisThe Arabian Peninsula and The GulfSecurity and Defense
The Arms Trade in the MENA Region: Drivers and Dangers
Jun 17, 2020Charles W. DunneCharles W. Dunne argues that international arms sales remain a huge business in the Middle East, making it the most militarized region globally. However, he wr…
- Policy AnalysisThe Arabian Peninsula and The GulfUS Foreign Policy
US Middle East Policy in Free Fall
May 28, 2020Daniel BrumbergGulf Arab states have little choice but to rely for their security needs on the Trump Administration despite its feckless policy in the Middle East and poor ca…
- Policy AnalysisIranRegional Relations and Geopolitics
Iran Is Running a Custom-Made Strategy in the Levant
May 18, 2020Joe MacaronAlthough economic pressures are forcing the Iranian regime to cut its losses in the Levant, it would be a mistake for the Trump Administration and its allies t…
- Policy AnalysisIranUS Foreign Policy
Worrisome American Response to Iran in the Gulf
May 5, 2020Abdulwahab Al-QassabAbdulwahab Al-Qassab examines the muted US response to Iranian provocations in the Arabian Gulf, surmising that it reflects poorly on the reputation of the Uni…
- Policy AnalysisIranUS Foreign Policy
The COVID-19 Pandemic Prompts Debate over Iran Sanctions
Apr 1, 2020Marcus MontgomeryMarcus Montgomery details splits in official Washington about how to deal with Iran at this delicate time of the coronavirus outbreak: some want to offer sanct…
- Policy AnalysisIranUS Foreign Policy
COVID-19 and Iranian-American Relations
Apr 1, 2020Daniel BrumbergAs US-Iran relations suffer from continuing political and ideological differences, the coronavirus calamity could provide an opportunity for deescalation and c…
- Policy AnalysisIranUS Foreign Policy
Trump, Congress Lay Out Election Year Foreign Policy Priorities
Mar 11, 2020Marcus MontgomeryMarcus Montgomery discusses how the Trump Administration is pressing forward with its campaign against Iran as many in Congress are trying to constrain the pre…
- Policy AnalysisSyriaRegional Relations and Geopolitics
Russia Has Limits on Its Influence in the Middle East
Mar 10, 2020Charles W. DunneCharles W. Dunne argues that despite Russia’s success in Syria and stealthy gains in the Middle East since 2015, the limits on its capabilities have become inc…
- Policy AnalysisIranDemocracy and Governance
The Uncertain Victory of Iran’s Hardliners
Feb 26, 2020Daniel BrumbergThe backing of Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei will allow Iran’s conservatives to use their victory in the parliamentary elections to prevent reformists from deman…
- Policy AnalysisIraqRegional Relations and Geopolitics
The United States and Iran Continue to Maneuver in Iraq
Feb 21, 2020Gregory AftandilianGregory Aftandilian contends that after the very tense period of December 2019-January 2020, the United States and Iran are seeking to restore their credibilit…
- Washington Policy WeeklyIranUS Foreign Policy
What is Congress Willing to Do to Avoid War with Iran?
Feb 6, 2020Marcus MontgomeryThis week, the House of Representatives took further decisive steps to try and prevent President Donald Trump from embroiling the United States in another war …
- Policy AnalysisLebanonUS Foreign Policy
US, Iran Prolong Détente in Lebanon with a Status Quo Cabinet
Jan 29, 2020Joe MacaronJoe Macaron contends that the new Lebanese government of Hassan Diab is a continuation of the old oligarchic status quo and appears to prolong the US-Iran déte…