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IranConflicts and Conflict ResolutionThe US-Iran Interim Deal: A Fragile Ceasefire
Jun 18, 2026Daniel Brumberg Khalil E. Jahshan Patricia Karam Yousef Munayyer Daniel Neep Kristian Coates UlrichsenThe “Islamabad Memorandum of Understanding between the United States of America and the Islamic Republic of Iran,” signed in Versailles, France, on June 17, 20…
- Viewpoint
IranUS Foreign PolicyWill Trump “Finish the Job” in Iran?
Jun 12, 2026Daniel BrumbergThe US-Iranian ceasefire of April 8, 2026, may not withstand President Donald Trump’s June 11, 2026 threat to seize Iran’s Kharg Island and to take control of …
- Policy Analysis
IranConflicts and Conflict ResolutionThe Humanitarian Impact of the War on Iran
Jun 3, 2026Yara M. AsiFor the hundreds of children that attended the Shajareh Tayyebeh Elementary School in Minab, Iran, Saturday, February 28, 2026, probably began like any other d…
- Policy Analysis
OmanConflicts and Conflict ResolutionOman and the Iran War: Neutrality Under Strain
May 28, 2026Gregory AftandilianOman has been thrust back into the diplomatic spotlight. On May 27, 2026, US President Donald Trump told reporters that Oman, a Gulf state that has maintained …
- Policy Analysis
Saudi ArabiaEnergy and EconomicsVision 2030 and the Iran War: Saudi Arabia’s Resilience Under Strain
May 28, 2026Kristian Coates UlrichsenThree months after the United States and Israel attacked Iran on February 28, 2026, the conflict is at stalemate: The ceasefire that began on April 8, 2026, ha…
- Viewpoint
IranUS Foreign PolicyAfter the Iran War, No One Can Guarantee the Gulf’s Security
May 26, 2026Charles W. DunneThe US-Israeli war on Iran has severely weakened if not destroyed the Pax Americana, the US-led political, economic, and security structure that, despite numer…
- Policy Analysis
IranEnergy and EconomicsHormuz as Deterrent: How Iran’s Leverage Could Reshape Gulf Infrastructure
May 21, 2026Jim KraneIran has managed to convert its proximity to the Strait of Hormuz into a strategic deterrent. By blocking maritime trade, Iran has demonstrated that it can imp…
- Viewpoint
IranDiplomacy and NegotiationsTrump, Not Tehran, Is Blocking Diplomacy with Iran
May 13, 2026Daniel BrumbergOn April 26, 2026, Tehran offered the United States a proposal to lift the US and Iranian blockades of the Strait of Hormuz but to postpone talks on the nuclea…
- Viewpoint
EgyptConflicts and Conflict ResolutionEgypt and the Gulf: A Relationship under Pressure
Apr 21, 2026Imad K. HarbThe US-Israeli war on Iran has put Egypt in a predicament. Since the 2013 coup that brought him to power, Egyptian President Abdel-Fattah el-Sisi has enjoyed a…
- Policy Analysis
IranUS Foreign PolicyHow to Avoid Mutually Assured Devastation in the Gulf
Apr 17, 2026Daniel BrumbergThe April 12, 2026, collapse of US-Iran talks in Islamabad, Pakistan, could open the door to the perils of mutually assured devastation. This differs from the …
- Policy Analysis
IranUS Foreign PolicyThe Iran War: Is Trump Looking for Exit Ramps or Escalation?
Apr 7, 2026Charles W. DunneUS President Donald Trump proclaimed total victory over Iran in his Oval Office address on April Fools’ Day, saying, “We’ve beaten and completely decimated Ira…
- Policy Analysis
The Arabian Peninsula and The GulfEnergy and EconomicsThe Iran War and the End of the US-Gulf “Oil for Security” Deal
Mar 27, 2026Jim KraneIn early March 2026, Iran effectively closed the Strait of Hormuz in response to the war launched by the United States and Israel, making it impossible for oil…
- Policy Analysis
IranUS Foreign PolicyUS Backing for an Iranian Kurdish Armed Rebellion Likely to Backfire
Mar 25, 2026Gregory AftandilianSeveral of Iran’s Kurdish political factions are hopeful that they may be part of any effort to dismantle the Islamic Republic and achieve autonomy for their c…
- Policy Analysis
The Arabian Peninsula and The GulfConflicts and Conflict ResolutionCaught in the Crossfire: Gulf Security and Strategy in the US–Israel War on Iran
Mar 19, 2026The Unit for Political StudiesThe US-Israel war on Iran, which initially appeared as a series of escalatory exchanges, has evolved into a broader war spanning multiple theaters, drawing in …
- Policy Analysis
The Arabian Peninsula and The GulfConflicts and Conflict ResolutionThe GCC States and the War on Iran: Rethinking Responses to Unwanted Consequences
Mar 19, 2026Kristian Coates UlrichsenFour years and four days after President Vladimir Putin committed an act of aggression by launching the full-scale Russian invasion of Ukraine, the United Stat…
- Policy Analysis
LebanonConflicts and Conflict ResolutionCrisis and Solidarity in Lebanon
Mar 12, 2026Patricia KaramThe widening of hostilities following the March 2026 US-Israeli attacks on Iran has placed Lebanon on a dangerous trajectory. Hezbollah’s decision to enter the…
- From our Affiliates
The Arabian Peninsula and The GulfConflicts and Conflict ResolutionThe Gulf in the Line of Fire: The Calculations and Contradictions of Iranian Strategy
Mar 9, 2026The Unit for Political StudiesNo sooner had news broke of a US-Israeli attack on Tehran on the morning of 28 February 2026, than Iran had launched a series of its own strikes targeting the …
- Policy Analysis
IranUS Foreign PolicyAfter Khamenei: Operation Epic US–Iran Stalemate?
Mar 6, 2026Daniel BrumbergThere is no doubt that the United States will continue assassinating Iranian leaders in the belief that this strategy will deliver a political silver bullet to…
- From our Affiliates
IranUS Foreign PolicyTrump and Netanyahu’s Iran Gambit: The Strategic Calculations behind Epic Fury
Mar 6, 2026The Unit for Political StudiesFollowing weeks of military mobilization and statements hinting at escalation from the White House, the United States and Israel launched a large-scale attack …
- Collective Analysis
IranUS Foreign PolicyThe US-Israel War on Iran: Analyses and Perspectives
Mar 2, 2026Susan M. Akram Charles W. Dunne Amy Hawthorne Patricia Karam Khalil E. Jahshan Annelle Sheline Kristian Coates UlrichsenThe United States has joined Israel in an all-out war on the Islamic Republic of Iran. On February 28, 2026, a US armada of two aircraft carrier strike groups …
- Policy Analysis
IranProtests and ActivismIran’s Rebellion Will Transform Iran’s Islamic Republic for Better or Worse
Jan 14, 2026Daniel BrumbergAs the popular rebellion in Iran accelerates, the country’s sclerotic autocracy is fighting for survival. The reported deaths of at least 2,000 protesters and …
- Policy Analysis
IranDemocracy and GovernancePolitical Divisions in Iran and the Uncertain Path to a New Nuclear Deal
Sep 4, 2025Daniel BrumbergSome analysts have argued that the unprecedented Israeli and American June 2025 assault on Iran has created a “new regional order” in the Middle East. But what…
- Policy Analysis
The Arabian Peninsula and The GulfEnergy and EconomicsOPEC Is Pushing Down Oil Prices Despite a Cash Crunch in Saudi Arabia. Here Is Why
Aug 21, 2025Jim KraneSomething odd is happening in oil markets. Demand is weaker than it has been in many years, yet OPEC+ is unwinding cuts and increasing production at a brisk pa…
- Policy Analysis
Palestine/IsraelConflicts and Conflict ResolutionPalestine and the Middle East After the Iran-Israel war
Jul 15, 2025Rami G. KhouriThe Middle East in recent months has witnessed multiple military and ideological confrontations. Historic changes in regional power balances signal new strateg…
- Policy Analysis
Saudi ArabiaConflicts and Conflict ResolutionIsrael-Iran Confrontation Tests Saudi Arabia’s Quest for Neutrality
Jul 2, 2025The Unit for Political StudiesOvernight on June 21-22, American military aircraft launched strikes on three nuclear facilities inside Iran, most notably the fortified Fordow plant. To reach…
- Policy Analysis
IranConflicts and Conflict ResolutionThe GCC States and the US-Iran Dance Near the Abyss
Jul 2, 2025Kristian Coates UlrichsenYears of shadowboxing and increasingly direct skirmishing between Israel and Iran erupted into 12 days of conflict that began in the early hours of June 13 and…
- Policy Analysis
IranUS Foreign PolicyPerspectives on the US Attack on Iran and Its Repercussions
Jun 23, 2025Charles W. Dunne Imad K. Harb Khalil E. Jahshan Tamara Kharroub Assal Rad Annelle Sheline Kristian Coates UlrichsenAfter waiting for a week following Israel’s June 13 attack on Iran, US President Donald Trump decided to involve the United States directly in the Israeli-Iran…
- ViewpointIranUS Foreign Policy
President Trump’s Iran War
Jun 20, 2025Yousef MunayyerAs the smoke rises above Iran and Israel after waves of Israeli airstrikes and Iranian retaliation, only one thing is immediately clear: President Donald Trump…
- Viewpoint
IranUS Foreign PolicyPolitical Divisions Over Israel’s Iran Attack Highlight Tough Choices for Trump
Jun 19, 2025Charles W. DunneIsrael’s attacks on Iranian nuclear facilities and an ever-expanding list of targets has exposed fundamental disagreements among Americans over support for Isr…
- Viewpoint
IranUS Foreign PolicyIsrael’s Iran Assault Has Created a Crisis for Which Trump Is Not Prepared
Jun 16, 2025Daniel BrumbergOver the last 18 months, Iran quadrupled its stock of 60 percent enriched uranium. Yet however “successful,” this effort was fraught with danger for the Islami…
- Viewpoint
IranUS Foreign PolicyThe 2025 Israel-Iran War: The American Dimension
Jun 16, 2025Khalil E. JahshanFor the past three decades as a political figure, Benjamin Netanyahu has been obsessed with Iran’s perceived existential threat to Israel, particularly its eme…
- Viewpoint
IranUS Foreign PolicyAlready Focused on Iran, Congress Looks at a New Phase in US-Iran Relations
May 9, 2025Ethan Mayer-RichLawmakers returned to Washington after a short break away from the Capitol. Their two-week recess coincided with major developments in the Middle East. The Uni…
- Policy AnalysisIranUS Foreign Policy
Changing GCC Outlook Toward US-Iran Talks
May 7, 2025Kristian Coates UlrichsenLeaders of the six GCC states have worked assiduously since 2021 to repair and rebuild ties with Iran as part of a ‘de-risking’ strategy designed to take the s…
- Policy Analysis
IranUS Foreign PolicyTrump Might Go for a Nuclear Deal Without a Larger Middle East Strategy
Apr 22, 2025Daniel BrumbergOver the last week, Iran hardliners in Washington have issued dire warnings about the Trump administration’s launching of nuclear talks with Iran. Iranian lead…
- Policy AnalysisIranUS Foreign Policy
Trump’s Impulse-Driven Middle East Policy Creates Dangers and Opportunities
Mar 27, 2025Daniel BrumbergA recent report by a pro-Israel think tank in Washington cautions against making any deal with Iran that does not provide for the total dismantlement of Tehran…
- Policy Analysis
The Arab WorldHow Will 2025 Be Different in the Middle East? Perspectives on the New Year
Jan 15, 2025Khalil E. Jahshan Daniel Brumberg Dana El Kurd Imad K. Harb Patricia Karam Nabeel A. Khoury Yousef Munayyer Annelle ShelineThe monumental events that took place in the Middle East in 2024 augur radical changes in the region’s geopolitical environment. Israel’s ongoing genocidal war…
- Viewpoint
SyriaDemocracy and GovernanceWill Assad’s Fall Give Iran’s Reformists a New Lease on Life?
Dec 11, 2024Daniel BrumbergFor Iran, the fall of Syria’s Bashar al-Assad and what was left of his regime—together with Moscow’s decision to throw its leading Middle East ally to the wind…
- Policy Analysis
IranUS Foreign PolicyTrump and Company Return to the Folly of “Maximum Pressure” on Iran
Dec 5, 2024Daniel BrumbergWhen it comes to US Iran policy, simple yet profound realities merit repeating. One of these is that economic sanctions are a tactic, not a strategy. Indeed, u…
- Policy Analysis
The Arabian Peninsula and The GulfRegional Relations and GeopoliticsGCC States Seek Diplomacy During US Absence
Nov 12, 2024Kristian Coates UlrichsenThe expansion and partial regionalization of what is already the longest and deadliest conflict in the Israeli-Palestinian arena since 1948 presents the Gulf A…
- Policy Analysis
The Arab WorldUS Foreign PolicyA Second Trump Administration: Potential Policy Toward the Middle East
Nov 5, 2024Charles W. DunneThe November 5 presidential election is likely to have major implications for US foreign policy, as it pits a centrist and robust internationalist candidate (V…
- Policy Analysis
Palestine/IsraelConflicts and Conflict ResolutionOne Year After October 7: Israel Descends into Endless War
Oct 11, 2024Daniel BrumbergAmong the many moments described in the Washington Post’s recent article on the Biden administration’s failed efforts to secure a ceasefire in Gaza, one stands…
- Policy Analysis
IranDemocracy and GovernanceIran’s New President and Foreign Minister Stand on the Edge of a Precipice
Aug 30, 2024Daniel BrumbergCommenting on Hezbollah’s retaliation to Israel’s August 25 pre-emptive strike on its positions, Iranian Foreign Ministry spokesman Nasser Kanaani asserted tha…
- Policy Analysis
IranDemocracy and GovernanceIran’s New President Must Navigate Dangerous Waters
Aug 1, 2024Daniel BrumbergFor the third time in the young history of the Islamic Republic of Iran, a political leader identified with the “Reformist” camp has won the presidency. Masoud…
- Policy Analysis
IranDemocracy and GovernanceWill Ebrahim Raisi’s Death Help Ultra-Hardliners ‘Make Iran Great Again’?
May 31, 2024Daniel BrumbergThe May 19 deaths of President Ebrahim Raisi and Foreign Minister Hossein Amir-Abdollahian in a fiery helicopter crash has created a challenge that Iran’s lead…
- Policy Analysis
UAERegional Relations and GeopoliticsUAE Restricts US Military Strikes from Its Territory
May 22, 2024Gregory AftandilianFearing an attack by Iran or its allied militias in the region, the United Arab Emirates (UAE) has restricted US military aircraft from targeting these proxy g…
- Viewpoint
IranDemocracy and GovernanceRaisi Departs, But Iran Remains Khamenei’s Realm
May 20, 2024Imad K. HarbIranian President Ebrahim Raisi’s death comes at a particularly precarious time for the Islamic Republic. While important, considering the monumental news, Sup…
- Policy Analysis
The Arabian Peninsula and The GulfConflicts and Conflict ResolutionGulf Arab States Avoid Iran-Israel Tensions
Apr 25, 2024Kristian Coates UlrichsenYears of shadow conflict between Israel and Iran, which included targeted assassinations as well as cyberattacks, gave way in April to direct confrontation and…
- Viewpoint
IranConflicts and Conflict ResolutionA Failed Iranian Performance and Its Repercussions
Apr 15, 2024Imad K. HarbRare are the occasions when a purportedly capable country’s determined military response to attack turns out to be a mere theatrical performance. Such was the …
- Policy AnalysisIranConflicts and Conflict Resolution
Iran Between Managing Allies and Modulating Its Deterrence
Jan 25, 2024Daniel BrumbergThis is a bad time for Iran to become embroiled in an expanding regional war that pits the Islamic Republic and its allies in Iraq, Lebanon, and Yemen against …
- Policy Analysis
IranRegional Relations and GeopoliticsHamas’s “Al-Aqsa Flood” Challenges Iran’s Axis of Resistance
Nov 27, 2023Daniel BrumbergWhile the Biden administration, with Qatar’s support, has succeeded in securing a deal with Israel and Hamas for a combat “pause,” it remains to be seen if thi…
- Policy Analysis
LevantUS Foreign PolicyUS Military Presence in the Middle East: Deterrence and Retaliation
Nov 14, 2023Gregory AftandilianThe United States has recently bolstered its military presence in the Middle East as the Israeli war on Gaza escalated. Bolstering this presence is meant to de…
- Policy Analysis
IranRegional Relations and GeopoliticsOn the Limits of Iran’s Policy of “Maximum Tactical Flexibility”
Oct 13, 2023Daniel BrumbergAt some point, the tactical balls Tehran has been juggling could fall to the ground with unpredictable or dangerous strategic results.
- Policy Analysis
IranUS Foreign PolicyAre the United States and Iran Moving Closer to a New Nuclear Deal?
Jul 14, 2023Arab Center for Research and Policy StudiesThe last few weeks have witnessed an active diplomatic movement between Tehran and Western countries, especially the United States, regarding resolving the cri…
- Policy Analysis
IranRegional Relations and GeopoliticsDespite US Efforts, Iran is Ascendant
Jun 21, 2023Charles W. DunneIran today is not nearly as isolated as Washington had hoped and it has scored some impressive successes in advancing its regional agenda.
- Policy Analysis
EgyptRegional Relations and GeopoliticsEgypt and Iran: A Quest for Normalized Ties Amid Significant Obstacles
Jun 9, 2023Khalil Al-AnaniEgypt and Iran appear to be moving toward a closer relationship and a mending of ties. In recent months, officials from both countries have engaged in multiple…
- Policy Analysis
IranSecurity and DefenseIran’s Nuclear Program Poses Challenges for China and the United States
Mar 29, 2023Daniel BrumbergNow that China has brokered a renewal of relations between Iran and Saudi Arabia, it must translate that achievement into real tangible benefits. After all, fo…
- Policy Analysis
The Arabian Peninsula and The GulfRegional Relations and GeopoliticsThe GCC Is On Board with the Saudi-Iran Agreement
Mar 27, 2023Kristian Coates UlrichsenThe signing of a joint trilateral statement by senior national security officials from Saudi Arabia and Iran in the presence of Chinese officials in Beijing on…
- Policy Analysis
YemenConflicts and Conflict ResolutionYemen and the Saudi-Iran Rapprochement
Mar 22, 2023Nabeel A. KhouryIn the closing scene of the 1942 film Casablanca, Humphrey Bogart, walking off into the fog with his occasional nemesis as they plan their next move together, …
- Policy Analysis
LebanonRegional Relations and GeopoliticsLebanon and Syria and the Saudi-Iran Detente
Mar 21, 2023Imad K. HarbThe recent China-brokered agreement between Saudi Arabia and the Islamic Republic of Iran is expected to have a de-escalating effect on many issues in the Midd…
- Policy Analysis
The Arabian Peninsula and The GulfRegional Relations and GeopoliticsChina as Middle East Matchmaker
Mar 16, 2023Daniel BrumbergWhile the central role that China recently played in renewing diplomatic relations between Iran and Saudi Arabia underscores the United States’ declining influ…
- Policy Analysis
IranDemocracy and GovernanceSucceeding Khamenei: Can Iran’s Leaders Reinvent Their Islamic Republic?
Feb 3, 2023Daniel BrumbergIran’s Supreme Leader, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, is 83 years old. And while he has lived long enough to see the 44th anniversary of the Iranian Revolution, the s…
- Policy AnalysisIranProtests and Activism
Have Iran’s Leaders Come to Another Crossroads?
Dec 14, 2022Daniel BrumbergDaniel Brumberg examines the ongoing protests in Iran and the country’s hardline response, stressing that the disturbances are unlikely to lead to the collapse…
- Policy Analysis
IranUS Domestic Politics and ElectionsThe US Midterm Elections Spell Further Trouble for the JCPOA
Dec 2, 2022Douglas ChristensenIn November, Americans went to the polls to cast their votes in the congressional midterm elections. In the end, voters dealt a major blow to Republican party …
- Policy Analysis
IranProtests and ActivismTensions Among Iran’s Nervous Ruling Elites
Oct 24, 2022Daniel BrumbergOne of the keys to understanding the Islamic Republic of Iran is that despite the regime’s still formidable grip on power, its ruling elite believe that the re…
- Policy Analysis
IranSecurity and DefenseIran-Israel Drone Competition and the Changing Nature of Warfare in the Middle East
Oct 13, 2022Bishara A. BahbahUnmanned aerial vehicles (UAVs), commonly known as drones, have been widely used in recent armed conflicts, particularly in the Middle East. Their low cost and…
