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IranUS Foreign PolicyAre the United States and Iran Moving Closer to a New Nuclear Deal?
Jul 14, 2023Arab Center for Research and Policy StudiesThe last few weeks have witnessed an active diplomatic movement between Tehran and Western countries, especially the United States, regarding resolving the cri…
- Policy Analysis
IranRegional Relations and GeopoliticsDespite US Efforts, Iran is Ascendant
Jun 21, 2023Charles W. DunneIran today is not nearly as isolated as Washington had hoped and it has scored some impressive successes in advancing its regional agenda.
- Policy Analysis
EgyptRegional Relations and GeopoliticsEgypt and Iran: A Quest for Normalized Ties Amid Significant Obstacles
Jun 9, 2023Khalil Al-AnaniEgypt and Iran appear to be moving toward a closer relationship and a mending of ties. In recent months, officials from both countries have engaged in multiple…
- Policy Analysis
IranSecurity and DefenseIran’s Nuclear Program Poses Challenges for China and the United States
Mar 29, 2023Daniel BrumbergNow that China has brokered a renewal of relations between Iran and Saudi Arabia, it must translate that achievement into real tangible benefits. After all, fo…
- Policy Analysis
The Arabian Peninsula and The GulfRegional Relations and GeopoliticsThe GCC Is On Board with the Saudi-Iran Agreement
Mar 27, 2023Kristian Coates UlrichsenThe signing of a joint trilateral statement by senior national security officials from Saudi Arabia and Iran in the presence of Chinese officials in Beijing on…
- Policy Analysis
YemenConflicts and Conflict ResolutionYemen and the Saudi-Iran Rapprochement
Mar 22, 2023Nabeel A. KhouryIn the closing scene of the 1942 film Casablanca, Humphrey Bogart, walking off into the fog with his occasional nemesis as they plan their next move together, …
- Policy Analysis
LebanonRegional Relations and GeopoliticsLebanon and Syria and the Saudi-Iran Detente
Mar 21, 2023Imad K. HarbThe recent China-brokered agreement between Saudi Arabia and the Islamic Republic of Iran is expected to have a de-escalating effect on many issues in the Midd…
- Policy Analysis
The Arabian Peninsula and The GulfRegional Relations and GeopoliticsChina as Middle East Matchmaker
Mar 16, 2023Daniel BrumbergWhile the central role that China recently played in renewing diplomatic relations between Iran and Saudi Arabia underscores the United States’ declining influ…
- Policy Analysis
IranDemocracy and GovernanceSucceeding Khamenei: Can Iran’s Leaders Reinvent Their Islamic Republic?
Feb 3, 2023Daniel BrumbergIran’s Supreme Leader, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, is 83 years old. And while he has lived long enough to see the 44th anniversary of the Iranian Revolution, the s…
- Policy Analysis
IranProtests and ActivismHave Iran’s Leaders Come to Another Crossroads?
Dec 14, 2022Daniel BrumbergDaniel Brumberg examines the ongoing protests in Iran and the country’s hardline response, stressing that the disturbances are unlikely to lead to the collapse…
- Policy Analysis
IranUS Domestic Politics and ElectionsThe US Midterm Elections Spell Further Trouble for the JCPOA
Dec 2, 2022Douglas ChristensenIn November, Americans went to the polls to cast their votes in the congressional midterm elections. In the end, voters dealt a major blow to Republican party …
- Policy Analysis
IranProtests and ActivismTensions Among Iran’s Nervous Ruling Elites
Oct 24, 2022Daniel BrumbergOne of the keys to understanding the Islamic Republic of Iran is that despite the regime’s still formidable grip on power, its ruling elite believe that the re…
- Policy Analysis
IranSecurity and DefenseIran-Israel Drone Competition and the Changing Nature of Warfare in the Middle East
Oct 13, 2022Bishara A. BahbahUnmanned aerial vehicles (UAVs), commonly known as drones, have been widely used in recent armed conflicts, particularly in the Middle East. Their low cost and…
- Policy Analysis
IranProtests and ActivismIran’s Ongoing Protests: Potential Scenarios During a Dangerous Time
Sep 30, 2022Daniel BrumbergTo adapt the famous opening line of Leo Tolstoy's Anna Karenina, it may be said that while all states are paradoxical, every state is paradoxical in its own wa…
- Policy Analysis
IraqIdentity Politics and SectarianizationIran’s Cautious Stance on Iraq’s Current Political Crisis
Sep 27, 2022Zeidon AlkinaniIraqi politicians have repeatedly failed to form a government in the eleven months that have passed since the country’s October 2021 elections, in large part d…
- Policy Analysis
IranUS Foreign PolicyNo Plan B for the US as Geostrategic Shifts Threaten to Scuttle Iran Nuclear Deal
Sep 20, 2022Daniel BrumbergWhat a difference a few days can make in the Middle East. On August 28 National Security Council Spokesperson John Kirby addressed the diplomatic maneuvering t…
- Policy Analysis
IranReligion and PoliticsAssault on Salman Rushdie Generates Diplomatic and Political Tremors
Sep 2, 2022Daniel BrumbergIt will probably never be known whether the 24-year-old Lebanese American man who repeatedly stabbed world-renowned author Salman Rushdie on August 12 acted wi…
- Policy Analysis
IranUS Foreign PolicyUS Diplomacy with Iran Is Needed to Achieve Security in the Middle East
Jul 28, 2022Daniel BrumbergNow that President Joe Biden has completed his trip to the Middle East, his administration will likely make one last bid to revive the 2015 Iran nuclear deal, …
- Policy Analysis
The Arabian Peninsula and The GulfUS Foreign PolicyThe Biden Administration Is Struggling to Develop a Middle East Strategy
Jun 10, 2022Daniel BrumbergDespite the declining capacity of the United States to shape the Middle East’s strategic architecture, it is unlikely that effective regional solutions to secu…
- Policy Analysis
IranMedia and TechnologyInformation Controls in Iranian Cyberspace: A Soft War Strategy
May 23, 2022Arab Center for Research and Policy StudiesWhile the Islamic Republic of Iran undoubtedly uses cyberspace for censorship and surveillance of its citizens, including cyber warfare to damage information s…
- Policy Analysis
LebanonIdentity Politics and SectarianizationHezbollah Mirrors a Weak State and a Turbulent Region
Apr 13, 2022Nabeel A. KhouryIn the eyes of an observant analyst, “While it is customary to characterize Hezbollah as a ‘state within a state,’ it is more accurate now to define it as a ‘s…
- Policy Analysis
IranSecurity and DefenseIsrael-Iran Shadow War in Syria intensifies Amid International Developments
Mar 23, 2022Gregory AftandilianThe ongoing military conflict between Israel and Iran (along with Iran-backed Shia forces like Hezbollah) in Syria show no signs of easing despite the Russia-U…
- Policy Analysis
IranConflicts and Conflict ResolutionIran and Israel Deal with the Rampaging Russian Bear
Mar 16, 2022Daniel BrumbergRussia’s invasion of Ukraine has produced some unusual bedfellows, the strangest of whom are Iran and Israel. Perhaps the term “bedfellows” is an exaggeration,…
- Policy Analysis
TurkeyRegional Relations and GeopoliticsTurkey’s Evolving Policy toward Iran
Feb 16, 2022Mustafa GurbuzTurkish Foreign Minister Mevlut Cavusoğlu’s official call to his Israeli counterpart was a rarity since the Erdoğan-Peres confrontation in Davos in January 200…
- Policy Analysis
IranRegional Relations and GeopoliticsUkraine’s Geostrategic Tremors Reach into the Middle East
Jan 13, 2022Daniel BrumbergDaniel Brumberg disentangles the complications arising from the current tensions between Ukraine and Russia and their impact on US-Russian relations as well as…
- Policy Analysis
IraqDemocracy and GovernanceIraq’s Post-Election Government Formation: Political Deadlock
Dec 28, 2021Zeidon AlkinaniMajor changes to the Iraqi political scene are awaiting the formation of a new government following the results of the early parliamentary election that took p…
- Policy Analysis
IranUS Foreign PolicyHigh Stakes at the Vienna Nuclear Talks with Iran
Dec 8, 2021Daniel BrumbergThe ongoing indirect US-Iran negotiations in Vienna on the future of the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA) have thus far made little progress. Already…
- Policy Analysis
Saudi ArabiaRegional Relations and GeopoliticsThe Limits of Saudi-Iranian Détente
Oct 29, 2021Daniel BrumbergDuring his years in the Nixon White House in the 1970s, former Secretary of State Henry Kissinger sought to manage the US-Soviet rivalry by creating arenas of …
- Policy Analysis
The Arabian Peninsula and The GulfRegional Relations and GeopoliticsA New Strategic Architecture Is Emerging in the Gulf
Sep 24, 2021Imad K. HarbAs the Gulf crisis of 2017 recedes into memory, following the reconciliation in January at the “solidarity and stability” summit in Saudi Arabia’s al-Ula on th…
- Policy Analysis
IranRegional Relations and GeopoliticsIran’s Hard-liners Pursue a Complex Resistance Strategy
Sep 23, 2021Daniel BrumbergWhile the election of Ebrahim Raisi to the Iranian presidency and the appointment of Hossein Amir-Abdollahian as foreign minister signal a clear victory for th…
- Policy Analysis
Saudi ArabiaRegional Relations and GeopoliticsA Saudi-Iranian Rapprochement Still Has a Long Way to Go
Sep 21, 2021Gregory AftandilianTalks in Baghdad between officials of Saudi Arabia and Iran, which have been held periodically since April, have fueled speculation that these two regional pow…
- Policy Analysis
IranRegional Relations and GeopoliticsIran Prepares for a New “Great Game” in Afghanistan
Sep 2, 2021Daniel BrumbergUntil the horrific August 26 attack outside Kabul’s Hamid Karzai International Airport, Iran’s bottom line on a new Afghan political order was in fact similar …
- Policy Analysis
LebanonEnergy and EconomicsLebanon’s Energy Crisis Fuels US-Iran Tensions
Aug 25, 2021Joe MacaronIn the midst of an economic collapse and an energy crisis, Lebanon has found itself in a tug of war between the United States and Iran. On August 19, Hezbollah…
- Viewpoint
IraqIran’s Presidential Election as Viewed in Iraq
Jun 29, 2021Abdulwahab Al-QassabAll political developments in Iran have serious repercussions in Iraq, and the election of Ibrahim Raisi as president of the Islamic Republic is no different. …
- Policy Analysis
IranUS Foreign PolicyRaisi’s Election Creates Opportunities and Pitfalls for Iran’s Islamic Republic
Jun 25, 2021Daniel BrumbergIn the weeks leading up to Iran’s June 18 presidential elections, one joke making the rounds was that Ebrahim Raisi, then a candidate and now the winner, was r…
- Policy Analysis
IranRegional Relations and GeopoliticsIran Plays a Diplomatically Cautious (and Smart) Game on Gaza
May 22, 2021Daniel BrumbergIt’s not every day that Hamas leaders openly plead for Tehran’s support. But this is apparently what happened when, as the battle between Gaza’s militant grou…
- Policy Analysis
IranUS Foreign PolicyThe Israeli Factor in the US-Iran Nuclear Talks
May 6, 2021Joe MacaronAs US Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin was visiting Israel on April 11, Israel’s Mossad intelligence agency orchestrated a mysterious explosion in Iran’s Natanz …
- Policy Analysis
Palestine/IsraelUS Foreign PolicyWill the Natanz Incident Produce Maximum Diplomacy?
Apr 23, 2021Daniel BrumbergJust two days after what appeared to be an Israeli-backed sabotage of Iran’s Natanz enrichment facilities, The Washington Post’s editorial board declared that …
- Policy Analysis
IranUS Foreign PolicyHard-liners Fight for Iran’s Presidency and Foreign Policy
Mar 17, 2021Daniel BrumbergFormer US Energy Secretary Ernest Moniz, who during the Obama Administration played a pivotal role in negotiating the 2015 Iran nuclear deal, recently asserted…
- Policy Analysis
IranUS Foreign PolicyThe US and Iran: From Brinkmanship to Negotiations?
Feb 25, 2021Daniel BrumbergIn his far-ranging February 21 interview with Iran’s Press TV, Iranian Foreign Minister Mohammad Javad Zarif reiterated a bottom line: that Iran would step awa…
- Policy Analysis
The Arabian Peninsula and The GulfUS Foreign PolicyBiden will Contend with Divergent Middle East Preferences on Iran
Jan 27, 2021Daniel BrumbergThe Middle East is experiencing a period of diplomatic and strategic readjustment that will create both challenges and opportunities for the Biden Administrati…
- Policy Analysis
IranUS Foreign PolicyIran between Avenging Soleimani and Engaging Biden
Jan 27, 2021Joe MacaronTwo events in January serve as reminders of how US-Iran dynamics are pulled in two different directions: the inauguration of President Joe Biden on January 20,…
- Policy Analysis
The Arabian Peninsula and The GulfUS Foreign PolicyThe Biden Administration’s Foreign Policy: Key Features and Likely Changes
Jan 6, 2021Unit for Political StudiesHaving won the American presidential election, and despite incumbent President Donald Trump’s refusal to concede, Democratic candidate and President-elect Joe …
- Viewpoint
The Arabian Peninsula and The GulfDemocracy and GovernanceArab Public Opinion on National Security and Foreign Intervention
Nov 17, 2020Joe MacaronThe Arab League celebrated its 75th anniversary this year in the midst of regional politics that have never been more polarized, with continuous foreign interv…
- Policy Analysis
IranUS Foreign PolicyIran and the World Wait for Biden
Nov 5, 2020Daniel BrumbergIranian leaders have insisted that the November 3rd US elections would have no real significance for Iran’s basic interests. But such assertions should not be …
- Policy Analysis
LebanonRegional Relations and GeopoliticsAfter the Beirut Blast: Hezbollah and Iran Walk a Tricky Line
Aug 26, 2020Daniel BrumbergDaniel Brumberg argues that Hezbollah and Iran are vested in preserving the current political system in Lebanon whose confessional institutions enable the part…
- Policy Analysis
IranRegional Relations and GeopoliticsIran’s Hard-liners Grapple with the Trap of Securitizing the State
Jul 13, 2020Daniel BrumbergDaniel Brumberg argues that Iran's hard-liners have savored the victory of last February's parliamentary elections and are now preparing for the 2021 president…
- Policy Analysis
The Arabian Peninsula and The GulfSecurity and DefenseThe Arms Trade in the MENA Region: Drivers and Dangers
Jun 17, 2020Charles W. DunneCharles W. Dunne argues that international arms sales remain a huge business in the Middle East, making it the most militarized region globally. However, he wr…
- Policy Analysis
The Arabian Peninsula and The GulfUS Foreign PolicyUS Middle East Policy in Free Fall
May 28, 2020Daniel BrumbergGulf Arab states have little choice but to rely for their security needs on the Trump Administration despite its feckless policy in the Middle East and poor ca…
- Policy Analysis
IranRegional Relations and GeopoliticsIran Is Running a Custom-Made Strategy in the Levant
May 18, 2020Joe MacaronAlthough economic pressures are forcing the Iranian regime to cut its losses in the Levant, it would be a mistake for the Trump Administration and its allies t…
- Policy Analysis
IranUS Foreign PolicyWorrisome American Response to Iran in the Gulf
May 5, 2020Abdulwahab Al-QassabAbdulwahab Al-Qassab examines the muted US response to Iranian provocations in the Arabian Gulf, surmising that it reflects poorly on the reputation of the Uni…
- Policy Analysis
IranUS Foreign PolicyThe COVID-19 Pandemic Prompts Debate over Iran Sanctions
Apr 1, 2020Marcus MontgomeryMarcus Montgomery details splits in official Washington about how to deal with Iran at this delicate time of the coronavirus outbreak: some want to offer sanct…
- Policy Analysis
IranUS Foreign PolicyCOVID-19 and Iranian-American Relations
Apr 1, 2020Daniel BrumbergAs US-Iran relations suffer from continuing political and ideological differences, the coronavirus calamity could provide an opportunity for deescalation and c…
- Policy Analysis
IranUS Foreign PolicyTrump, Congress Lay Out Election Year Foreign Policy Priorities
Mar 11, 2020Marcus MontgomeryMarcus Montgomery discusses how the Trump Administration is pressing forward with its campaign against Iran as many in Congress are trying to constrain the pre…
- Policy Analysis
SyriaRegional Relations and GeopoliticsRussia Has Limits on Its Influence in the Middle East
Mar 10, 2020Charles W. DunneCharles W. Dunne argues that despite Russia’s success in Syria and stealthy gains in the Middle East since 2015, the limits on its capabilities have become inc…
- Policy Analysis
IranDemocracy and GovernanceThe Uncertain Victory of Iran’s Hardliners
Feb 26, 2020Daniel BrumbergThe backing of Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei will allow Iran’s conservatives to use their victory in the parliamentary elections to prevent reformists from deman…
- Policy Analysis
IraqRegional Relations and GeopoliticsThe United States and Iran Continue to Maneuver in Iraq
Feb 21, 2020Gregory AftandilianGregory Aftandilian contends that after the very tense period of December 2019-January 2020, the United States and Iran are seeking to restore their credibilit…
- Washington Policy Weekly
IranUS Foreign PolicyWhat is Congress Willing to Do to Avoid War with Iran?
Feb 6, 2020Marcus MontgomeryThis week, the House of Representatives took further decisive steps to try and prevent President Donald Trump from embroiling the United States in another war …
- Policy Analysis
LebanonUS Foreign PolicyUS, Iran Prolong Détente in Lebanon with a Status Quo Cabinet
Jan 29, 2020Joe MacaronJoe Macaron contends that the new Lebanese government of Hassan Diab is a continuation of the old oligarchic status quo and appears to prolong the US-Iran déte…
- Policy Analysis
IranSecurity and DefenseGulf Arab States Still Worried about a US-Iran War
Jan 23, 2020Gregory AftandilianGregory Aftandilian argues that Gulf Arab states increasingly view the United States as an unreliable and erratic ally and are urging restraint by Washington a…
- Policy Analysis
IranUS Foreign PolicyWashington’s Strategy in the Post-Soleimani Middle East
Jan 15, 2020Joe MacaronJoe Macaron writes that the post-Soleimani Middle East offers both challenges and opportunities but the Trump Administration does not seem to have a strategy t…
- Policy Analysis
IranUS Foreign PolicySoleimani’s Assassination Backfires Big Time
Jan 7, 2020Daniel BrumbergWashington’s killing of Qassem Soleimani violates the red lines that the United States and Iran had previously respected in order to avoid escalation, and make…
- Viewpoint
IranUS Foreign PolicyA Middle East Calamity Is about to Unfold
Jan 3, 2020Imad K. HarbKilling Soleimani has put the Middle East at the edge of a dangerous abyss and hastened an inevitable confrontation between the United States and Iran.
- Policy Analysis
IranRegional Relations and GeopoliticsThe United States and Iran Readjust to New Realities in Iraq and Lebanon
Dec 18, 2019Joe MacaronAfter 15 years of rivalry in Iraq and Lebanon, the United States and Iran are adjusting their policies based on a new reality of popular uprisings that challen…
- Policy Analysis
IranDemocracy and GovernanceIs Iran on the Edge of a Precipice?
Nov 27, 2019Daniel BrumbergDaniel Brumberg questions whether the latest protests in Iran will produce a wider political movement, one that has the support of an urban professional and bu…
- Policy Analysis
IranConflicts and Conflict ResolutionLearning to Say “No” To Saudi Arabia on Iran and Yemen
Sep 25, 2019Daniel BrumbergDaniel Brumberg writes that against the background of the White House’s escalating conflict with Tehran, Washington seems unwilling or unable to break its habi…
- Policy Analysis
IranConflicts and Conflict ResolutionThe Attacks on Saudi Oil Installations are a Game Changer
Sep 17, 2019Khalil E. Jahshan Kristian Coates Ulrichsen Abdulwahab Al-Qassab Joe Macaron Imad K. HarbThe latest attacks on Saudi Arabia’s oil installations are a game changer in Saudi domestic politics and in regional and international affairs.
- Policy Analysis
IranSecurity and DefenseIs an American-Iranian Dialogue Coming?
Sep 4, 2019Daniel BrumbergDaniel Brumberg writes that with increasing tensions in the Middle East and the strengthening position of Iranian hard-liners, Rouhani and Zarif might have mor…
- Viewpoint
IranConflicts and Conflict ResolutionIraq Enters the Israel-Iran Proxy War
Aug 20, 2019Abdulwahab Al-QassabIsraeli strikes against the Popular Mobilization Units in Iraq may have created another battleground in the proxy war between Israel and the Islamic Republic o…
- Policy Analysis
IranRegional Relations and GeopoliticsHamas Plans a Comeback to Damascus: US and Regional Implications
Jul 31, 2019Joe MacaronHamas is looking to realign itself with Syria as the Trump Administration floats ideas about Palestinian-Israeli peace; however, it appears that the Syrian reg…
- Policy Analysis
IranIdentity Politics and SectarianizationTrump’s Sanctions on Hezbollah Threaten Lebanon’s Stability
Jul 30, 2019Nabeel A. KhouryCurrent conditions in the Middle East and American sanctions against Hezbollah could upset the delicate balance of power in Lebanon and potentially lead to an …
