
A coalition of Syrian opposition forces took control of Syria’s capital on December 8, 2024, ending more than 60 years of Baath Party rule in the country. Just as important, the fall of Damascus marked the end of the regime of Bashar al-Assad, who inherited the presidency from his father Hafez al-Assad in 2000. What was remarkable in this takeover was the swiftness with which the opposition gained control of the country following its forces’ sweep from both the north and the south toward the capital. Equally remarkable was that the collapse of the regime’s military and security institutions occurred largely without violence, as regime forces ultimately preferred to surrender or melt away than to fight.
While Russian forces—who intervened in 2015 on the side of the regime and saved it from collapse—briefly took part in attacking opposition troops in Aleppo, their role was marginal. The much-vaunted Iranian military support of the Assad regime that was also previously instrumental in Assad’s survival failed to materialize. Hezbollah—which similarly was essential for defending the regime during the Syrian uprising—was not in any shape to undertake the same defense after suffering heavy losses in 14 months of fighting against Israel. In the end, Assad and his regime stood alone and unable to fend off an organized military campaign committed to ending their rule.
It is no exaggeration to state that the collapse of the Syrian regime will have serious repercussions for Syria, the eastern Mediterranean, and the Middle East. Arab Center Washington DC (ACW) asked some of its analysts and affiliates to provide short commentaries on what these repercussions may be. Their responses are below.
The Return of Syria’s Displaced
Heba Gowayed, Non-Resident Fellow
The fall of the Asaad regime brings joy to millions of Syrians who have long dreamed of returning home after years as refugees. The path home, however, will be its own uphill battle. At a time when the world faces an unprecedented humanitarian crisis of displacement, Syrians remain the largest displaced group. Thirteen years of protracted violence have forced 14 million people from their homes and destroyed Syria’s infrastructure. Half of those displaced remain inside Syria, where they endure horrific humanitarian conditions. More than 90 percent live below the poverty line. The 5.5 million Syrians who live in Egypt, Jordan, Lebanon, Turkey, and elsewhere have endured their own pain of marginalization and limited economic opportunities. Now they, and those who have sought refuge in wealthy western countries, have an opportunity to come together and to rebuild the homeland that was taken from them. It is time for the global community that has repeatedly turned its back on Syria to step up to support its returnees on the long road ahead.
Essential Issues Facing Transition from the Assad Regime
Imad K. Harb, Director of Research and Analysis
There is no question that the transition from authoritarian rule in Syria will be a complicated and fraught process because of both the monopolization of the political space by the Baath Party and its personalization under the Assad family dynasty since 1970. But so far, the coalition of forces that swept into power on December 8 appears to understand the complexities and difficulties of transitioning to a stable system that respects plurality in Syrian society and assures stability for Syrians. One important task for the new rulers in Damascus is to devise a clear plan for a transition that includes a temporary government structure to maintain peace and order, to organize an election for a constituent assembly that can serve as an interim legislative body, and to appoint a body of experts to write a new constitution that guarantees freedoms and the democratic process. It is essential that they maintain at least a modicum of order and open channels of communications so that they can debate the many complicated issues that will arise as they begin a new chapter in Syria’s political development.
The Realization of a Dream: A Personal Note
Bahraa Hijazi, Multimedia Specialist
The fall of Bashar al-Assad’s brutal regime marks the realization of a dream that Syrians ignited in 2011. This victory over tyranny is monumental, but it carries the weight of unimaginable sacrifices by countless Syrians. To be sure, it is impossible to celebrate without remembering the thousands of lives lost, the loved ones who disappeared, and the detainees who endured unspeakable horrors in Assad’s prisons. My only regret is that I am not physically there with my people to celebrate this historic moment. I wish that my late father, a strong and principled man, could have witnessed this new dawn. I also hope that the new Syria becomes a beacon of freedom, justice, and equality. For justice to be assured, Bashar al-Assad and his henchmen must be held accountable for their crimes against the Syrian people. Now, it is time to rebuild the Syria that we always envisioned—a Syria that we, as free Syrians, can be proud to call home.
Israel and Assad’s Downfall
Khalil E. Jahshan, Executive Director
It has been said that “success has many fathers, but failure is an orphan.” Accordingly, stakeholders in the Middle East are rushing to put their own spin on developments in Syria and to tweak them, if possible, in their political favor. Israel seems to be leading this effort to take full advantage of the situation. Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu wasted no time taking credit for the change in Syria that no one, including the Israeli intelligence services, predicted. Surrounded by Israeli flags atop a hill overlooking the Syrian border, Netanyahu hailed the fall of Assad as “historic” and ordered Israeli troops to swiftly seize the demilitarized buffer zone that separated Israel from Syria since the signing of 1974 Disengagement Agreement. In addition to creating facts on the ground, the Israeli prime minister took credit for the demise of the Assad dynasty, claiming that it was the “direct result” of Israel’s war in Lebanon which, according to the pompous Likud leader, militarily diminished both Iran and Hezbollah. What Netanyahu failed to realize is the potential damage that his arrogant paternity claim will cause to the already tense and extremely fragile situation in Syria. These words, in my humble judgement, are destined to come back and haunt him in the future.
Lebanon Is Jubilant and Hopeful
Patricia Karam, Non-Resident Fellow
It is noteworthy that Syrian opposition fighters began their push south from Idlib on the same day that a ceasefire was announced between Israel and Hezbollah, signaling the severe weakening of Iranian influence in Lebanon after a yearlong war between Israel and Hezbollah. Lebanon is keenly watching developments in Syria, as they are likely to have a momentous impact across the Middle East. There are scenes of jubilation in Lebanon over Assad’s fall, given Syria’s near total hegemony over Lebanese domestic and foreign politics until its 2005 ouster from the country. For Lebanon, a successful transition in Damascus will enable millions of Syrian refugees to return home, but a botched one might generate more refugees, adding to the strain on Lebanon’s social fabric and economic conditions. Assad’s fall and the weakening of Iran’s axis of resistance will deal an additional blow to Hezbollah and affect Lebanon’s internal power dynamics. The collapse of the Assad regime leaves Iran more weakened than ever, although not fully disabled, and with its regional influence project critically affected and clearly vulnerable to attacks from Israel.
Biden and Trump React to Assad’s Fall
Annelle Sheline, Non-Resident Fellow
In discussing the fall of the “abhorrent” Assad regime, President Joe Biden described it as “a historic opportunity for the Syrian people.” He also declared that “our approach has shifted the balance of power in the Middle East.” Under Secretary of State John Bass stressed the need for a Syrian-led political solution in line with UN Security Council Resolution 2254 of 2015, which called for a ceasefire and an end to attacks on civilians. Still, on the day after Assad fell, the US Air Force attacked some 75 targets in Syria belonging to the so-called Islamic State—it is not yet clear how many civilians were harmed. In contrast to Biden’s self-congratulatory tone, President-elect Donald Trump was more cautious, posting on X, “In any event, Syria is a mess, but is not our friend, & the United States should have nothing to do with it. This is not our fight. Let it play out. Do not get involved!” Trump’s statement reflects the war weariness of many Americans who have expressed discontent with expensive and ineffective American military actions in the Middle East.
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