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- Policy AnalysisLebanonConflicts and Conflict Resolution
An Unwinnable Battle of Narratives in Lebanon Regarding War with Israel
Jul 19, 2024Patricia KaramHezbollah’s decision on war against Israel has attracted both support and objection from different political factions in Lebanon and helped lead to escalating …
- Policy AnalysisLebanonMigrants, Refugees, and IDPs
Lebanon Needs Help in Dealing with Its Syrian Refugees
Jul 10, 2024Imad K. HarbThe dangerous saber-rattling and bloody confrontations between Hezbollah and Israel have partly obscured serious domestic challenges facing Lebanon and the car…
- Policy AnalysisLebanonConflicts and Conflict Resolution
Israel’s Lost Deterrence and the Coming Conflict with Hezbollah
Jun 12, 2024Patricia KaramAs the two countries inch closer to all-out war, the coming months may be the most dangerous time in Lebanon’s history.
- Policy AnalysisLebanonWomen & Gender Issues
Violence Against Women in Lebanon: The Challenge of Legislative Action
Jun 6, 2024Rola El-HusseiniIn March 2024, Lebanon’s “reform MPs,” a group of legislators who were elected in 2022 from outside the country’s traditional sectarian system, proposed a new …
- Policy AnalysisLebanonConflicts and Conflict Resolution
Hezbollah-Israel War Is Becoming Inevitable, and the United States May Not Prevent It
Apr 10, 2024Patricia KaramPatricia Karam evaluates the possibility of a war between Hezbollah and Israel that would be a major escalation in the Middle East as the United States tries t…
- Policy Analysis
The Limits of Justice in Lebanon—and What It Means for the Future of the Country
Feb 28, 2024Three years ago this month, the assassination of Lokman Slim—public intellectual, human rights defender, writer and publisher, and outspoken critic of Hezbolla…
- ViewpointLebanonConflicts and Conflict Resolution
Continuing Skirmishes but No Hezbollah-Israel War
Jan 25, 2024Imad K. HarbDaily and intense skirmishes between Israeli forces and Hezbollah and its allies across the Blue Line—in reference to the border drawn by the United Nations fo…
- Policy AnalysisIranConflicts and Conflict Resolution
Iran Between Managing Allies and Modulating Its Deterrence
Jan 25, 2024Daniel BrumbergThis is a bad time for Iran to become embroiled in an expanding regional war that pits the Islamic Republic and its allies in Iraq, Lebanon, and Yemen against …
- Viewpoint
Arouri’s Assassination Will Achieve Nothing
Jan 3, 2024In its pursuit of Hamas leaders, an Israeli drone has assassinated Saleh al-Arouri, the Deputy Chairman of Hamas’s Political Bureau, a senior official in the o…
- Policy Analysis
Lebanon’s Political Forces Oppose a War with Israel
Dec 20, 2023With a heightened risk of the Gaza war spilling over into Lebanon, currently mired in acute political, economic, and social crises, the country’s politicians v…
- Viewpoint
Hezbollah Reluctantly Awaits Israel’s Decision on War
Nov 17, 2023The frontline on the Lebanese-Israeli border continues to witness the real skirmishes of an undeclared war between Israel and Hezbollah. Reciprocal attacks bet…
- Viewpoint
Nasrallah Steers Clear of War
Nov 3, 2023Where is Hezbollah and its General Secretary Hassan Nasrallah? This was a natural refrain over almost the last four weeks, voiced by many observers and partisa…
- Viewpoint
The Unlikelihood of a Hezbollah-Israel War
Oct 13, 2023As Israel turns to punish the Gaza Strip and its people for the Hamas attack on October 7, speculation arises as to whether the “Al-Aqsa Flood” operation will …
- Policy AnalysisLebanonIdentity Politics and Sectarianization
The Threat of Renewed Sectarian Violence in Lebanon
Sep 5, 2023Patricia KaramTwo people were killed on August 9 in the village of Kahaleh in central Lebanon, in one of the deadliest shootouts since the bloody 2021 clashes in the Tayoune…
- Policy AnalysisLebanonMigrants, Refugees, and IDPs
The Plight and Politics of Syrian Refugees in Lebanon
Aug 8, 2023Patricia KaramWhen Syria’s regime was readmitted into the Arab League and its president, Bashar al Assad, rehabilitated after years of ostracism for his brutal crackdown on …
- Policy AnalysisLebanonDemocracy and Governance
The Continuation of Lebanon’s Presidential Debacle
Jun 21, 2023Patricia KaramIt should come as no surprise to Lebanese citizens or the international community that the country remains without a president after more than 7 months and 12 …
- Policy AnalysisThe Arab WorldUS Foreign Policy
US Middle East Policy: The Trump-Biden Doctrine in Action
Mar 22, 2023Charles W. DunneAll US presidents, it seems, need their own foreign policy “doctrine.” President James Monroe famously started the trend in 1823, and many others—Truman, Eisen…
- Policy Analysis
Lebanon and Syria and the Saudi-Iran Detente
Mar 21, 2023The recent China-brokered agreement between Saudi Arabia and the Islamic Republic of Iran is expected to have a de-escalating effect on many issues in the Midd…
- Policy Analysis
A New Model for Presidential Elections in Lebanon
Mar 9, 2023It has been four months since former Lebanese President Michel Aoun left office in October 2022, after a presidential term marred by a series of catastrophic e…
- Policy Analysis
Lebanon’s New Opposition MPs Must Work Together for Political Change
Feb 14, 2023Although the October 2019 protests in Lebanon rallied every sector, class, and gender in a moment of enthusiasm with the expectation of revolutionary change, t…
- Policy Analysis
Beirut Port Explosion: A “Judicial Coup” to Bury the Investigation?
Feb 9, 2023There is broad consensus in Lebanon regarding the need to reform the country’s judiciary and to work toward enhancing its independence, as stipulated by both t…
- Policy Analysis
Lebanon’s Politicians Are Incapable of Productive Dialogue
Jan 12, 2023Lebanon has now entered the fourth year of its devastating economic crisis and collapse, with no end in sight and no hint regarding the possible launch of a re…
- Policy Analysis
Lebanon Faces a Prolonged Presidential Vacuum
Nov 29, 2022Lebanon has experienced a long presidential vacuum three times in its history: from September 1988 to November 1989, from November 2007 to May 2008, and from M…
- Policy Analysis
Lebanon Will Not Benefit from Its Maritime Agreement with Israel
Oct 31, 2022After ten years of on-again, off-again negotiations, Lebanon and Israel have finally reached what leaders in both countries consider an acceptable deal to dema…
- Policy Analysis
The Captagon Problem in Saudi Arabia and Other Gulf States
Sep 22, 2022Over the past decade, the amphetamine fenethylline, widely known by the brand name Captagon, has increasingly become the drug of choice among the youth in Gulf…
- Policy Analysis
Lebanon Struggles to Pick up the Pieces After the Beirut Port Explosion
Sep 9, 2022Lebanon’s independence in 1943 formally ended a 23-year French mandate backed by the League of Nations, a period that saw the consolidation of the country’s cu…
- Policy Analysis
An Update on the Lebanon-Israel Border Dispute
Sep 7, 2022As the summer comes to a close, indirect negotiations to demarcate the maritime border between Lebanon and Israel continue apace. Although US mediator Amos Hoc…
- Policy Analysis
Lebanon’s Upcoming Presidential Race Is Riddled with Uncertainty
Jul 21, 2022Amid political chaos, economic collapse, a dearth of public services, and shortages of basic foods and medications, Lebanon is nonetheless slated to hold anoth…
- Policy Analysis
Little to Show After Two Years of Tense Lebanese-Israeli Maritime Border Negotiations
Jul 8, 2022Lebanon and Israel have frequently been at odds during their nearly two years of negotiations over the two countries’ Mediterranean maritime border, with diffi…
- Policy Analysis
The Political Transformation of Protest Movements in Iraq and Lebanon
Jun 24, 2022Despite the limited achievements of Iraq and Lebanon's recently-established protest movements compared to their stated objectives, the movements’ small gains m…
- Policy Analysis
A Preliminary Reading into Lebanon’s Parliamentary Elections
May 18, 2022Lebanon’s parliamentary elections, held on May 15, 2022, were the first chance to understand where Lebanese voters stand on a number of important issues since …
- Viewpoint
Lebanon’s Voters Would Do Well to Support the Forces of Change
May 10, 2022On May 15, resident Lebanese go to the polls to elect a new 128-member parliament to replace the one elected four years ago. Given the right to vote in 2018, e…
- Policy Analysis
Hezbollah Mirrors a Weak State and a Turbulent Region
Apr 13, 2022In the eyes of an observant analyst, “While it is customary to characterize Hezbollah as a ‘state within a state,’ it is more accurate now to define it as a ‘s…
- Policy Analysis
The Need for an International Development Fund for Lebanon
Jan 6, 2022The International Monetary Fund (IMF), World Bank (WB), European Union (EU), France, and the United States are all trying to help Lebanon out of the economic a…
- Policy Analysis
Politics, Geopolitical Conditions Pushing Lebanon into a Death Spiral
Dec 22, 2021Conditions in Lebanon today betray a slide toward the total failure of state institutions amid a precipitous downturn of the country’s economic and social indi…
- Policy Analysis
Saudi Arabia’s Third “Shock and Awe” Move in Lebanon
Nov 9, 2021On October 29th, Riyadh cut diplomatic ties with Beirut and suspended Lebanon’s imports into Saudi Arabia. These actions were aimed to force the resignation of…
- Policy Analysis
Beirut Port Explosion: The Investigation That Will Shape Lebanon’s Future
Oct 27, 2021For a country that is notorious for both a legacy of violence and a culture of impunity surrounding that violence, it is no surprise that the ongoing investiga…
- Viewpoint
Lebanon Courts Civil War, Again
Oct 14, 2021Once again, Lebanon teeters on the abyss of a civil war, this time over conflicts related to the investigation into the disastrous August 4, 2020 explosion at …
- Policy Analysis
Foreign Influence in Lebanon and the Third Miqati Premiership
Oct 13, 2021For the third time in 16 years, Prime Minister Najib Miqati comes to office as a consensus candidate in a country with deep divisions within the Lebanese polit…
- Policy Analysis
The Conflicted Role of Lebanon’s Central Bank
Oct 12, 2021Over the past few decades, public debt, sectarian nepotism, and fixed exchange rates have been three significant challenges to the Lebanese economy; albeit the…
- Viewpoint
No Rest for the Weary: Lebanon’s Miqati Must Hit the Ground Running
Sep 10, 2021Najib Miqati, the billionaire tasked over a year ago with forming the Lebanese government, has finally finished putting it together, but not before President M…
- Policy Analysis
Lebanon’s Energy Crisis Fuels US-Iran Tensions
Aug 25, 2021In the midst of an economic collapse and an energy crisis, Lebanon has found itself in a tug of war between the United States and Iran. On August 19, Hezbollah…
- Viewpoint
Hezbollah Is Not Interested in a War with Israel
Aug 11, 2021As Lebanon reels from seemingly unsolvable political, economic, social, and security crises, an exchange of rocket and artillery fire on August 6th between Hez…
- Viewpoint
A Year after the Beirut Explosion, a Dreaded Civil War in Lebanon
Aug 3, 2021Events over the last few days in Lebanon portended a serious escalation in sectarian tensions and a possible widespread resort to arms that could quickly lead …
- Research Paper
Youth in Lebanon: Policy Narratives, Attitudes, and Forms of Mobilization
Jun 17, 2021IntroductionAs Lebanon is undergoing one of the worst economic and financial collapses in the world, one that was caused by the deliberate inaction1 of its rul…
- Policy Analysis
Hezbollah in Moscow: Russia Flexes Its Diplomatic Muscles
Apr 14, 2021In a medium-sized van with no bodyguards, on a rainy March 15, 2021, a Hezbollah delegation quietly walked into the Russian Foreign Ministry building in Moscow…
- Policy Analysis
Lebanon Faces a Civil War, a Prospect of Its Own Making
Mar 23, 2021The socioeconomic and political crises gripping Lebanon today are unprecedented in the country’s 100-year history, one that has witnessed intercommunal unrest …
- Policy Analysis
No Light at the End of Lebanon’s Long and Dark Tunnel
Mar 3, 2021By all accounts, Lebanon is a desperate case. The severe fiscal crises portend an extended economic depression ahead. The country has been in political paralys…
- Viewpoint
The Assassination of Lebanon’s Lokman Slim
Feb 4, 2021Assassination reared its ugly head once again in Lebanon when unknown assailants killed political analyst and activist Lokman Slim in southern Lebanon in the e…
- Policy Analysis
Lebanon Risks Becoming Irrelevant
Nov 11, 2020For the third time in the span of a year, Lebanese politicians are trying to go back to the proverbial drawing board. On October 22nd, President Michel Aoun ap…
- Policy Analysis
Prospects of US Mediation in the Lebanon-Israel Border Talks
Oct 14, 2020On October 14, Lebanon and Israel started the long-awaited US-mediated talks to demarcate their maritime borders under the supervision of the United Nations. T…
- Policy Analysis
The French Initiative in Lebanon: Endgame and Challenges
Sep 16, 2020French President Emmanuel Macron has been leading a charm offensive in Lebanon since the August 4th Beirut explosion as Paris seeks to reinvigorate its role in…
- Viewpoint
Lebanon Chooses a Prime Minister, Thwarting the Protesters Again
Aug 31, 2020Imad K. Harb writes that Lebanon’s new and largely unknown prime minister-designate, Mustafa Adib, is relatively inexperienced in politics. Nevertheless, his c…
- Policy Analysis
After the Beirut Blast: Hezbollah and Iran Walk a Tricky Line
Aug 26, 2020Daniel Brumberg argues that Hezbollah and Iran are vested in preserving the current political system in Lebanon whose confessional institutions enable the part…
- Policy Analysis
How Can the United States Best Help Lebanon?
Aug 25, 2020With Lebanon in crisis and the United States’ desire to help, Charles W. Dunne writes that Washington’s focus on sidelining Hezbollah and Iran should not under…
- Policy Analysis
The Beirut Explosion Will Have a Lasting Impact on Lebanon
Aug 14, 2020Joe Macaron argues that the Beirut explosion and its repercussions will have a profound impact on Lebanon’s future, whatever political scenario emerges followi…
- Viewpoint
The Hezbollah-Aoun Political Process Has Failed in Lebanon
Aug 11, 2020Imad K. Harb posits that the resignation of the Lebanese government exposes the failure of the Hezbollah-Aoun political process but opens an opportunity for th…
- Policy Analysis
The Explosions in Beirut and Their Repercussions for Lebanon
Aug 7, 2020The destruction of the Port of Beirut is a profound event that will have long-term consequences for Lebanon and its economy and, most of all, its people. Read …
- Viewpoint
Lebanon: A Failed State Explodes
Aug 6, 2020Imad K. Harb contends that the failing Lebanese state will only begin to restore its legitimacy when the country’s political elites either step down or alter t…
- Policy Analysis
Lebanon’s Other Problem: Neutrality in Regional Affairs
Aug 3, 2020Examining Lebanon’s traditional neutrality in regional affairs, Imad K. Harb writes that Hezbollah’s push to follow Iran’s policies is placing the country in a…
- Policy Analysis
Hezbollah Cannot Solve Lebanon’s Worsening Conditions
Jun 10, 2020Imad K. Harb contends that Hezbollah has not succeeded in helping to repair Lebanon's domestic political and economic problems, has made the country hostage to…
- Policy Analysis
The Fakhoury Fiasco and US-Lebanese Relations
Apr 13, 2020The unconventional release of Lebanese-American Amer Fakhoury highlights the extent of Washington’s leverage in Beirut and raises questions about the status of…
- Policy AnalysisLebanonDemocracy and Governance
Lebanon’s Imminent Collapse: How Can It Be Prevented?
Mar 3, 2020Imad K. HarbThe dissolution of confessional politics in Lebanon and the political coalescence of the street opposition to negotiate for social change are key to addressing…
- Policy Analysis
US, Iran Prolong Détente in Lebanon with a Status Quo Cabinet
Jan 29, 2020Joe Macaron contends that the new Lebanese government of Hassan Diab is a continuation of the old oligarchic status quo and appears to prolong the US-Iran déte…
- Policy Analysis
The United States and Iran Readjust to New Realities in Iraq and Lebanon
Dec 18, 2019After 15 years of rivalry in Iraq and Lebanon, the United States and Iran are adjusting their policies based on a new reality of popular uprisings that challen…
- Policy Analysis
The Lebanese Uprising: No End in Sight for the Current Impasse
Nov 20, 2019Joe Macaron explains the different factors of the current impasse between the Lebanese ruling political class and the protesters, seeing no end in sight for th…
- Policy Analysis
The Battle to Defeat Confessional Politics in Lebanon and Beyond
Nov 11, 2019Daniel Brumberg writes that despite demands for radical change, no force or group inside or outside Lebanon can predict what will happen if the country tries t…
- Policy Analysis
The Catch-22 of Lebanese Reform
Nov 5, 2019Nabeel Khoury discusses the Lebanese leadership’s catch-22 dilemma resulting from the influence of entrenched parties and their militias as they confront the l…
- Policy Analysis
The Lebanon Uprising: Causes and Ramifications
Oct 24, 2019Lebanon’s protests have been unique and inclusive and are united by a wish to topple the ruling political class and abandon the system of sectarian power-shari…
- Policy Analysis
Radical Reform or Total Chaos for Lebanon?
Oct 22, 2019Nabeel Khouri argues that it is clear that radical reform in Lebanon is what stands between a safe and gradual transition to an accountable government, on the …
- Viewpoint
Lebanon’s Protests Cannot Be Ignored
Oct 18, 2019Imad K. Harb writes that Lebanon’s current protests are a reminder that the Arab Spring is alive and well and that Lebanese politicians have no choice but to h…
- Policy Analysis
Assessing the Latest Conflagrations between Israel and Hezbollah
Sep 11, 2019The latest conflagrations between Israel and Hezbollah were an attempt to dictate new rules of engagement. Nevertheless, both sides appear to be committed to t…
- Policy Analysis
Trump’s Sanctions on Hezbollah Threaten Lebanon’s Stability
Jul 30, 2019Current conditions in the Middle East and American sanctions against Hezbollah could upset the delicate balance of power in Lebanon and potentially lead to an …
- Policy Analysis
The Symbolism behind the Latest US Sanctions against Hezbollah
Jul 17, 2019The latest US sanctions against Hezbollah--and their impact on domestic Lebanese politics--are largely symbolic. In reality, the Trump Administration may have …
- Policy Analysis
On the Lebanese-Israeli Border, US and Iran Are Negotiating
Jun 5, 2019A breakthrough in Beirut is helping American mediation in the land and maritime border dispute between Lebanon and Israel, but many obstacles still prevent a q…
- Policy Analysis
Avoiding Punishing Lebanon Because of Hezbollah
Apr 16, 2019The United States continues to ostracize and pressure Hezbollah in Lebanon which is inadvertently helping the party grow and become more influential in the cou…
- Policy Analysis
The Trickiness of Syria’s Return to the Arab League
Mar 29, 2019It is important for Arab states to continue to withhold Syria’s membership until Damascus agrees to a political process that leads to a transition from Assad’s…
- Policy Analysis
Syria’s Demographic Changes Buttress Assad’s Authoritarianism
Mar 1, 2019The Syrian regime violated international prohibitions on the conduct of war by forcing millions of people to flee their homes in order to spur demographic chan…
- Policy Analysis
Lebanon’s New Government: No Need for Washington to Panic
Feb 6, 2019Lebanon’s new cabinet is not that different from the previous one. An American overreaction to Hezbollah’s role in it is likely to strengthen the party’s hold.