December 8, 2024, marked a historic turning point in Syria and the Middle East region—a day when the Syrian people achieved what had seemed unattainable: the toppling of one of the most brutal dictatorships in modern history. After 13 years of a tragedy that began with a peaceful revolution in 2011, Syrians have finally liberated their country through a Syrian-led initiative, restoring agency to a people who have endured unimaginable suffering. The fall of Bashar al-Assad’s regime brings both immense hope and daunting challenges for Syria’s future.
A Moment of Liberation and Hope
The dismantling of the Assad regime is a triumph of courage and perseverance. Over the years, the regime oversaw one of the most brutal prison systems in the world, alongside Israel, North Korea, and China, as detailed in books such as Mustafa Khalifa’s The Shell, a very moving account of daily life under torture in Syria’s prisons. The Assad regime arbitrarily or forcibly detained an estimated 158,000 individuals, including more than 10,000 women and 5,000 children. The freeing of several thousand detainees immediately after the fall of the regime has brought uncontainable joy to Syrians, many of whom had lost hope of ever reuniting with their loved ones.
For the more than 6.3 million Syrian refugees scattered across the globe, this victory carries the promise of return. Over a decade of exile, dispossession, and disillusionment have left a scar on the Syrian diaspora, but with the fall of Assad, the hope of restoring dignity and belonging to one’s homeland is now within reach. Similarly, displaced Syrians within the country can envision rebuilding lives on their land, far removed from the shadow of poverty, violence, and persecution.
The Perils of Transition
However, this hopeful chapter comes fraught with significant uncertainties. The immediate transition of power, led by the rebel group Hay’at Tahrir al-Sham (HTS) and its leader Abu Mohammed al-Joulani (or his real name, Ahmed al-Sharaa), has raised critical questions about Syria’s future. Despite HTS’s origins as a faction affiliated with al-Qaeda, al-Joulani has claimed to have reinvented his group from a Salafi jihadi identity to a technocratic mainstream force that has succeeded in maintaining power since 2017 over northwest Syria. His almost bloodless takeover on December 8, amnesty for Syrian Army soldiers, outreach to the Alawis, Christians, and other religious and ethnic communities of Syria, and condemnation of Assad’s sectarianism in symbolic venues like the Umayyad Mosque in Damascus are calculated (and promising) moves to project himself as a unifying statesman.
Many Syrian minorities, including Christians, have expressed hope in the country’s new future. Yet, doubts remain about HTS’s ability to successfully manage a peaceful, inclusive transition. Will al-Joulani’s leadership consolidate internal stability, or will it devolve into authoritarianism cloaked in Islamist rhetoric and practices?
Challenges for the Military and Governance
The Syrian military’s role in this transition is another critical issue. Historically an institution central to the state’s survival, the military was largely demoralized under Assad, with soldiers receiving meager salaries of $15 to $17 per month. Its decision not to resist the rebellion, despite Assad’s last-minute move to increase their salary to counter the opposition’s attacks, was key to the regime’s collapse. Now, questions arise: Will the military be fully dismantled, akin to the disastrous demobilization of the Iraqi army in 2003? Or can it be reinvented and reformed into a professional, inclusive force that contributes to stability? The army remains a central institution for any future civilian government.
The proposed transitional government offers a tentative model for a balanced governance structure. The involvement of figures like Mohammed al-Bashir, Head of HTS’s Salvation Government and Assad’s former prime minister Mohammed Jalali underscores efforts to bridge divisions, but much depends on broader consensus among stakeholders. Manaf Tlass, a defected high-ranking officer with ties to Russia, has also emerged as a potential transitional leader, hinting at agreements brokered between HTS and international players.
The Shadow of Foreign Interference
While the transition thus far has been Syrian-led, the specter of external meddling looms large. Syria has long been a sacrificial battleground for competing powers, including the United States, Russia, Iran, Turkey, and Israel. These actors will undoubtedly seek to influence the shape of the new Syria to align with their interests.
Turkey’s fears about the People’s Protection Units’ (PYD)-led Kurdish separatism in northeast Syria, the Kurdish-led Syrian Defense Forces’ (SDF) killings of locals in Aleppo and appeals to Israel’s support, the recent American strikes on Syria allegedly against the so-called Islamic State, and Russia’s vested interest in maintaining its military bases under Syria’s new rulers, all represent threats to the path forward. Moreover, Israel’s more than one hundred strikes inside Syria, its complete destruction of Syria’s navy, air force, and other military assets, its renewed territorial expansion in the occupied Syrian Golan Heights in violation of the Syria-Israel Disengagement Agreement brokered by the United States in 1974, and rhetorical appeal to Syrians as sectarian and ethnic groups rather than a national unit, reveal a dangerous colonial plan to weaken and partition the country. Such actions are in line with the current genocide in Gaza, ethnic cleansing of the occupied West Bank, and destruction of Lebanon. It is worth contextualizing this move within Syria’s historical claims for the return of the Golan to Syria’s sovereignty and its support for Palestinian rights, a position merely instrumentalized by Bashar al-Assad in his quest for regime survival. Despite their public discourse, Israelis appear to be concerned about the toppling of Assad, whose regime afforded them a secure status quo, versus an unpredictable Syria under a new leadership.
The key to a sustainable transition lies in maintaining Syrian agency while navigating these external threats. Without a genuine, sovereign process led by Syrians themselves, the country risks repeating the cycle of fragmentation and foreign domination.
A Vision for the Future
Amid these challenges, a clear vision for Syria’s future is paramount. This includes addressing key issues such as:
- National Reconciliation: Ensuring equal representation and citizenship for all Syrians, including minorities like Kurds, while averting sectarian strife.
- Democratic Governance: Building institutions that promote inclusivity, transparency, and accountability. The focus must shift from authoritarianism to participatory democracy, which should also include an equal participation and representation of women who have been pillars of the Syrian Revolution.
- Restoration of Sovereignty: Resisting foreign interference and reclaiming all occupied territories—including the Golan occupied by Israel since 1967 and annexed since 1981, large swaths of territory under Turkish occupation in northern Syria, and the US-occupied and oil-rich eastern parts of the country—must be a priority once internal consolidation is achieved.
- Accountability: Pursuing justice for the victims of war crimes and human rights violations. While countries like Spain, France, and Germany have issued arrest warrants for Assad, who deserted his own army and government to seek asylum in Russia, it is crucial that he face trial in Syria to uphold the sovereignty of Syrian justice.
The Fragile Path Ahead
The fall of Assad’s regime is not the end of Syria’s struggles but the beginning of a complex journey toward reconciliation, recovery, and rebuilding. Al-Joulani’s ability to consolidate internal stability, foster trust across Syria’s diverse population, and resist foreign exploitation will define this moment.
Syria’s historic revolution, born of the people’s courage and resilience, remains a powerful source of inspiration. Despite the internationalization of Syria’s uprising, the revolution was theirs in its start and its end. Thirteen years of utter sacrifice and perseverance testify to the unyielding spirit of Syrians to reclaim their destiny. Despite the risks and fears, the birth of a new Syria carries the promise of a brighter, freer future—one where the voices of its people shape the course of history, unimpeded by tyranny, foreign domination, or occupation.
As Syrians celebrate this historic milestone, the international community must respect and support their sovereign aspirations. Only through Syrian-led efforts can the country transform this victory into lasting peace and justice.
The views expressed in this publication are the author’s own and do not necessarily reflect the position of Arab Center Washington DC, its staff, or its Board of Directors.
Featured image credit: Shutterstock/Abidin Yagmur
