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LebanonEnergy and EconomicsThe Eastern Mediterranean Gas Forum Reinforces Current Regional Dynamics
Jan 25, 2019Joe MacaronThe recently announced Eastern Mediterranean Gas Forum is not likely to aid cooperation or economic integration because the policies of its member states mirro…
- Viewpoint
LevantConflicts and Conflict ResolutionThe Manbij Attack Exposes the Vulnerabilities of US Policy in Syria
Jan 17, 2019Joe MacaronThe US withdrawal from Syria may encourage Turkey and Russia to fill the vacuum, but IS’s Manbij attack may persuade Trump to stay a bit longer there.
- Policy Analysis
LebanonDemocracy and GovernanceThe Arab Rehabilitation of the Assad Regime
Jan 16, 2019Radwan ZiadehAssad will be able to regain his political legitimacy after winning his battle militarily only if he rehabilitates his regime’s standing in the Arab world.
- Policy Analysis
LevantConflicts and Conflict ResolutionDeteriorating Circumstances in Syria and Yemen Overshadow US Tactical Success
Jan 16, 2019Charles W. DunneChanging circumstances in Syria and Yemen and Washington’s shifting strategies have exposed the Trump Administration’s claims of success as threadbare.
- Policy Analysis
IraqSecurity and DefenseThe United States and the Turkish-Kurdish Conundrum in Northern Syria
Jan 11, 2019Mustafa GurbuzFuture US-Turkey relations depend on Ankara’s demands in northern Syria regarding the Kurds and how its relationship with Moscow develops.
- Policy Analysis
LevantUS Foreign PolicyThe Folly and Repercussions of Trump’s Decision on Syria
Jan 2, 2019Radwan ZiadehWithdrawing from Syria diminishes whatever influence the United States has cultivated there in favor of letting the Syrian regime, Russia, Turkey, and Iran cha…
- Policy Analysis
IranIdentity Politics and SectarianizationIran’s Hardliners and Reformists and the Syria Gambit
Dec 27, 2018Daniel BrumbergIranian hardliners have tried to isolate reformists by asserting that in times of growing security threats, all political forces must unite behind the drive fo…
- Viewpoint
SyriaUS Foreign PolicyTrump’s Syria Announcement Underscores US Policy Meltdown
Dec 20, 2018Daniel BrumbergThe withdrawal of US troops will make it easier for Moscow and Tehran to advance a political solution ensuring that Assad and his allies remain in power.
- Policy Analysis
SyriaIdentity Politics and SectarianizationAssad Begins a Three-Year Plan to Refurbish His Regime
Dec 12, 2018Joe MacaronThe Assad regime is consolidating itself and laying the groundwork to reap the benefits of postwar Syria and strengthen control over territories it recaptured.
- Policy Analysis
SyriaJustice, Equality, and Human RightsThe Developing GCC-Damascus Rapprochement
Nov 15, 2018Joe MacaronA rapprochement between GCC countries and the Syrian regime is becoming more possible and is being reinforced by recent regional developments.
- Policy Analysis
SyriaConflicts and Conflict ResolutionWill the Istanbul Summit Offer Hope for Syria?
Nov 1, 2018Joe MacaronThe Istanbul summit on Syria was the first serious attempt in years to advance a viable Syrian political process; but obstacles remain, including American-Russ…
- Viewpoint
IraqRegional Relations and GeopoliticsRussian Gains Are American Losses in the Arab World
Oct 30, 2018Imad K. HarbPutin’s assessment of a receding American international influence paves the way for an even larger Russian role in the Arab world.
- Policy Analysis
LevantConflicts and Conflict ResolutionSochi Agreement on Idlib Tests Russian-Turkish Relations
Oct 19, 2018Joe MacaronThe irregularities in implementing the Sochi Agreement regarding Idlib will put Russian-Turkish relations to the test and may doom the Idlib ceasefire.
- Policy Analysis
LevantUS Foreign PolicyThe Trump Administration’s Grandstand on Idlib
Sep 7, 2018Joe MacaronAs Russia and the Syrian regime gear up for the Idlib offensive, the United States is giving Moscow a free hand short of using chemical weapons.
- Policy Analysis
LevantRegional Relations and GeopoliticsThe Trump Administration’s Objectives in Syria
Aug 28, 2018Imad K. HarbAmerican officials’ latest pronouncements on Syria are intended to help insinuate some important preferences as the conflict there arguably nears its end on Ru…
- Policy Analysis
LevantInternational LawIsrael Returns to Basics in Syria: “Better the devil you know”
Aug 15, 2018Joe MacaronAfter nearly seven years of unrest next door, Israel opted to coexist with the Assad regime and to return to the stability in the occupied Golan Heights that l…
- Policy Analysis
LevantConflicts and Conflict ResolutionThe Ticking Time Bomb of Northern Syria
Aug 15, 2018Mustafa GurbuzThe Assad regime’s coming Idlib offensive will cause serious troubles and endanger the US security structure in northern Syria.
- Policy Analysis
IranConflicts and Conflict ResolutionPutin Arbitrates Iran’s Presence in Syria
Aug 10, 2018Daniel BrumbergRumors of a rocky Russian-Iranian alliance have been greatly exaggerated. Putin as arbiter in Syria will only do what serves Russia’s influence there.
- Viewpoint
LevantConflicts and Conflict ResolutionThe Raging—and Surprising—Battle for Southern Syria
Jul 5, 2018Radwan ZiadehThe Syrian regime began its assault on the southern city of Daraa toward the end of June, assisted as elsewhere in Syria by Russian warplanes and Iran-supporte…
- Policy Analysis
JordanMigrants, Refugees, and IDPsSyrian Refugees in Jordan and Lebanon: The Politics of their Return
Jun 28, 2018Joe MacaronOverwhelmed by their own economic woes, Jordan and Lebanon are employing different tactics to achieve the same objective: to secure the return of Syrian refuge…
- Policy Analysis
LevantReligion and PoliticsThe Damascus-Aleppo Highway and Stabilizing Northwest Syria
Jun 7, 2018Joe MacaronWhile Russia, Turkey and Iran are stabilizing northwest Syria along the Damascus-Aleppo highway, they are also normalizing an irregular situation that could ul…
- Viewpoint
IranConflicts and Conflict ResolutionA Crack in the Russian-Iranian Alliance in Syria?
May 23, 2018Joe MacaronIn a rare instance since the Russian intervention in Syria in September 2015, the policy differences between Moscow and Tehran have become public. This raised …
- Viewpoint
LevantInternational LawThe United States Abdicates Its Responsibilities in the Middle East
May 17, 2018Imad K. HarbIt is impossible to see how the massacre of unarmed Palestinian protesters in Gaza or the moving of the American embassy to Jerusalem will help chart a way out…
- Policy Analysis
LevantUS Foreign PolicyHas Trump Opted for a Longer US Presence in Syria?
May 16, 2018Gregory AftandilianTrump has walked back his declaration to bring US troops in Syria home “very soon” in light of pressure from advisors and allies, but he risks embroiling the U…
- Viewpoint
IranConflicts and Conflict ResolutionA Dangerous Israeli-Iranian Escalation in Syria
May 11, 2018Joe MacaronIn the most dangerous escalation since the establishment of the Golan Heights ceasefire line in 1973, Israel and Iran exchanged fire in southwestern Syria unde…
- ViewpointEgyptConflicts and Conflict Resolution
Deploying Arab Forces in Syria is not Advisable, nor Possible
May 10, 2018Radwan ZiadehOver the last few months, President Donald Trump has made announcements that regional states should bear more of the burden of ridding Syria of the so-called I…
- Policy Analysis
LevantEnergy and EconomicsBetween Idealism and Realpolitik: Erdoğan’s Quest for Palestine
Apr 26, 2018Mustafa GurbuzTurkey’s active policy for Palestine enables Ankara to strengthen its ties to the Palestinian Authority and Hamas simultaneously and thus to bolster its role a…
- ViewpointLevantConflicts and Conflict Resolution
The Kosovo Model for Syria
Apr 17, 2018Radwan ZiadehThe April 13, 2018, American-British-French strike on Syria was wider in scope and effect than that of April 2017 on Shairat Air Base; both conducted as punish…
- Policy Analysis
LevantIdentity Politics and SectarianizationThe Looming Threat of Kurdish-Arab Strife in Northern Syria
Apr 9, 2018Mustafa GurbuzThe latest developments in northern Syria signal a clear threat of rising Arab-Kurdish tensions that could boil over if local, regional, and international play…
- Policy Analysis
LebanonDemocracy and GovernanceWhere Is Syria Headed?
Apr 3, 2018Radwan ZiadehThe scenarios for Syria’s future after the fall of Eastern Ghouta now look very different from those drawn in 2012 or 2013, which depicted a peaceful political…
- Policy Analysis
JordanConflicts and Conflict ResolutionJordan’s Four Worst-case Scenarios on Its Syrian Border
Mar 30, 2018Joe MacaronJordan faces four worst-case scenarios as the US-Russia ceasefire agreement is gradually collapsing in southwestern Syria. Amman’s options to limit the damage …
- ViewpointLevantUS Foreign Policy
Tillerson’s Departure: Implications for Middle East Policy
Mar 13, 2018Imad K. HarbPresident Donald Trump’s sacking of Secretary of State Rex Tillerson has important ramifications for US policy in the Middle East, and specifically toward the …
- Policy Analysis
LevantSecurity and DefenseUS Syria Policy: Juggling Contradictory Interests
Mar 13, 2018Gregory AftandilianUS policy in Syria, as articulated by Secretary of State Rex Tillerson, remains focused on the Islamic State, but it does little to bring about other stated go…
- Policy Analysis
LevantConflicts and Conflict ResolutionHell on Earth: The World Forsakes Syria’s Eastern Ghouta
Feb 28, 2018Radwan ZiadehThe people of this district near Damascus are being exposed to relentless aerial bombing and ground attacks that have killed over 500 civilians, including many…
- ViewpointLevantConflicts and Conflict Resolution
Eastern Ghouta: Syria’s “Hell on Earth”
Feb 23, 2018Khalil E. JahshanIn recent weeks, the Assad regime and its supporters have subjected the Damascus suburb of Eastern Ghouta to one of the most violent attacks of the seven-year …
- Policy Analysis
IraqIdentity Politics and SectarianizationIs There a US Policy Toward the Kurds in Iraq and Syria?
Feb 21, 2018Gregory AftandilianRecent tensions between the United States and Turkey over US support for the Syrian Kurds have brought to the forefront the issue of US policy toward the Kurdi…
- Policy Analysis
LevantSecurity and DefenseThe War of Others on Syria’s Soil
Feb 20, 2018Radwan ZiadehThe late diplomat, politician, and publisher of the influential Lebanese daily An-Nahar, Ghassan Tueni, characterized the 15-year Lebanese civil war as “a war …
- Policy Analysis
LebanonConflicts and Conflict ResolutionLike Quicksand, Many Issues Threaten to Engulf Lebanon
Feb 13, 2018Imad K. HarbAs it approaches the highly anticipated round of legislative elections on May 6, Lebanon finds itself bereft of a cohesive political center that can withstand …
- ViewpointLevantConflicts and Conflict Resolution
A change in the American rules of engagement in Syria
Feb 9, 2018Radwan ZiadehThe American forces in northeastern Syria intervened in the Deir Ezzor area to protect and defend their local ally, the Syrian Democratic Forces. An estimated …
- ViewpointLevantConflicts and Conflict Resolution
Russia has abandoned all restraint in its support of Assad
Feb 8, 2018Imad K. HarbIt appears that Russia has decided to fully throw in its weight behind Bashar al-Assad’s regime and in fact take part in bombing civilian targets. I think Russ…
- Policy Analysis
LevantSecurity and DefenseThe Battle of Afrin and the Future of the Free Syrian Army
Feb 2, 2018Radwan ZiadehLow levels of mutual confidence between Washington and Ankara have subjected the American-Turkish strategic relationship to unwarranted dangers and challenges.
- Policy Analysis
LevantConflicts and Conflict ResolutionTurkey’s Kurdish Conundrum in Syria
Jan 24, 2018Mustafa GurbuzAs Turkey conducts its military operations against Syrian Kurdish militiamen ostensibly to secure its border with Syria, it finds itself needing to reconcile d…
- Policy Analysis
LevantDemocracy and GovernanceTillerson’s Syria Policy: Ambitious but Short on Detail
Jan 23, 2018Radwan ZiadehWhile the United States remains concerned about many different and complicating factors in Syria, Tillerson’s pronouncements represent an ambitious policy that…
- Policy Analysis
LevantDemocracy and GovernanceThe Syrian Opposition Faces an Existential Crisis
Dec 21, 2017Joe MacaronAfter losing important bargaining chips such as control of territory and ability to declare a ceasefire, the Syrian opposition may not be able to influence the…
- Policy Analysis
LevantConflicts and Conflict ResolutionUsing Its Syrian Foothold, Russia Expands in the Middle East
Dec 14, 2017Charles W. DunneRussia’s victory in Syria does not merely prop up the Assad regime but, more broadly, helps propel Moscow’s strategic interests in the wider Middle East.
- Policy Analysis
JordanConflicts and Conflict ResolutionBilateral Disagreements Aside, Jordan and Israel Agree on Syria
Nov 7, 2017Gregory AftandilianJordan and Israel view military activities by Sunni extremists groups and by Hezbollah as threats and are using their developing ties with Russia to try to mit…
- Policy Analysis
LevantConflicts and Conflict ResolutionRaqqa’s Liberation and US Policy in Syria
Oct 31, 2017Radwan ZiadehThe Islamic State’s defeat in Raqqa was met with widespread approval among all Syrians, but the Kurds’ control of the liberated city and its surroundings promp…
- Policy Analysis
LevantMigrants, Refugees, and IDPsThe Challenges of Turkey’s Operation in Syria’s Idlib
Oct 19, 2017Mustafa GurbuzTurkey is concerned about who controls neighboring Idlib Province in Syria but is equally interested in thwarting the Syrian Kurds’ plans for autonomy south of…
- Policy Analysis
IranInternational LawTrump’s United Nations Speech: More of the Same
Sep 20, 2017Marcus MontgomeryPresident Trump’s speech before the UN mixed isolationism and economic nationalism with calls for international consensus building, two irreconcilable position…
- Policy Analysis
LevantConflicts and Conflict ResolutionFuture Implications of the Islamic State’s Demise in Syria
Sep 20, 2017Radwan ZiadehSyria’s developments regarding the Islamic State’s expected demise and the Astana meeting should not be taken to signal an end to the country’s war which has l…
- Policy Analysis
LevantConflicts and Conflict ResolutionStakeholders of the Syrian Conflict Divide the Pie
Aug 23, 2017Joe MacaronThe recent local and regional developments in Syria signal that it is entering a new phase where major powers are coming to terms with a compromise that the Sy…
- Policy Analysis
JordanConflicts and Conflict ResolutionJordan and the US-Russia Deal in Southern Syria
Jul 12, 2017Joe MacaronThe recent ceasefire agreement for southern Syria and the Syrian regime’s military campaigns may be turning points in Jordan’s position on the war in Syria.
- Policy Analysis
LevantConflicts and Conflict ResolutionHow Did Syria Become a Victim of Regional and International Conflicts?
Jun 19, 2017Radwan ZiadehAs a seventh round of peace talks is announced, the United States and Russia clash over Syria and the GCC crisis remains unresolved. What is the impact of conf…
- Policy Analysis
IranConflicts and Conflict ResolutionA US-Iran Race to Control the Damascus-Baghdad Highway
May 31, 2017Joe MacaronSecuring the Damascus-Baghdad highway and deterring Iran’s regional activities might lead to a direct US involvement in the Syrian war.
- Policy Analysis
LevantConflicts and Conflict ResolutionBeyond the Trump-Erdoğan Meeting: The Rise of Eurasianists and Turkey’s Syria Policy
May 23, 2017Mustafa GurbuzA structural change in Turkey’s political system is gradually forcing serious changes in the country’s foreign policy toward Syria, the Gulf countries, Russia,…
- Policy Analysis
LevantConflicts and Conflict ResolutionIs Enforced Displacement the New Reality in Syria?
Apr 28, 2017Radwan ZiadehIt is feared that forced displacement of Syrians as a way of protecting vulnerable civilians may result in creating pure sectarian enclaves, making partition e…
- Policy Analysis
LevantMigrants, Refugees, and IDPsWill Erdogan’s Victory Usher Dramatic Changes in Turkish Foreign Policy?
Apr 25, 2017Mustafa GurbuzSince becoming Turkey’s president in July 2014, Recep Tayyip Erdoğan has pursued a protracted campaign to win constitutional changes that would grant him more …
- Policy Analysis
LevantConflicts and Conflict ResolutionA Dramatic American Change on Syria, but Will It Be Consequential?
Apr 7, 2017Imad K. HarbAs a limited attack on a Syrian military base, the American operation is not likely to rise to the status of being a game changer in Syria.
- Policy Analysis
LevantConflicts and Conflict ResolutionThe Turkey-Russia Rift Heralds an Autonomous Kurdistan in Syria
Apr 5, 2017Mustafa GurbuzAs the Syrian civil war grinds on into a seventh year, a Kurdish autonomous region controlled by the People’s Protection Units becomes more probable in norther…
- Policy AnalysisIraqReligion and Politics
Why Is the Battle against ISIL not Going Well?
Mar 28, 2017Radwan ZiadehOn March 22nd, the foreign ministers of the Global Coalition to defeat the Islamic State in Iraq and the Levant (ISIL) concluded their meeting in Washington, D…
- Policy AnalysisIranDemocracy and Governance
Syria Peace Talks in Geneva: A Road to Nowhere
Mar 27, 2017Radwan ZiadehOn March 3, 2017, the United Nations’ Special Envoy for Syria, Staffan de Mistura, concluded the last round of Syria peace negotiations in Geneva by saying tha…
- Policy AnalysisLevantDemocracy and Governance
Why Federalism Is a Bad Idea for Syria
Mar 13, 2017Radwan ZiadehIn the middle of the discussion about transition in Syria, Russia proposed the idea of a federal republic, according to deputy foreign minister Sergei Ryabkov.…
- Policy AnalysisIraqConflicts and Conflict Resolution
Regaining Western Mosul: Consequences and Implications
Mar 2, 2017Abdulwahab Al-Qassabimg { margin: 5px; padding: 5px;}Since October 2016, the Iraqi government, supported by the US military, has waged one of its most difficult battles t…
- Policy AnalysisIraqDemocracy and Governance
Iraqi Kurdistan’s Bid for Independence: Challenges and Prospects
Jan 26, 2017Mustafa GurbuzMasoud Barzani, the leader of the Kurdistan Regional Government (KRG) in Iraqi Kurdistan, has expressed his expectation for “a big change” in US policy under P…
- Policy AnalysisIraqUS Foreign Policy
Syria and Iraq in the Age of Trump: Challenges to American Interests
Jan 25, 2017Imad K. HarbNow that the Trump Administration has taken over the reins of American diplomatic and military power, questions arise about how it intends to preserve America’…
- Policy AnalysisIranConflicts and Conflict Resolution
After Aleppo: The Political and Regional Implications of the New Middle East “Troika”
Dec 28, 2016Joe MacaronSince August 2016, new regional power dynamics have been emerging in the wars in Syria. The trend has manifested itself in the fall of Aleppo and the December …
- Policy AnalysisIranConflicts and Conflict Resolution
Sidelining Asad: Questioning the Future of Russian-Iranian-Turkish Convergence in Syria
Dec 27, 2016Imad K. HarbThe battle of Aleppo has finally been decided in favor of the Syrian regime and its Russian, Iranian, and militia cohorts. But for all intents and purposes, th…
- Policy AnalysisLevantConflicts and Conflict Resolution
What is Next for Turkey after the Fall of Aleppo?
Dec 15, 2016Mustafa GurbuzAfter the fall of Aleppo, Turkey’s capacity to maneuver in the region will suffer tremendously. Indeed, the fall of Aleppo has increased tensions among Syrian …
- Policy AnalysisLevantConflicts and Conflict Resolution
The New Regional Order amid the Aleppo Rubble
Oct 20, 2016Joe MacaronIt became obvious in recent weeks that the US-Russian channel regarding Syria has run its course and can no longer be the bedrock of serious diplomatic efforts…
- Policy AnalysisLevantConflicts and Conflict Resolution
Doomed to Fail: Syria is not Ready for a Ceasefire
Sep 23, 2016Joe MacaronFor the second time in nearly six months, Washington and Moscow are striving to implement a nationwide ceasefire in Syria. The ultimate objective of establishi…
