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- Policy AnalysisThe Arab WorldUS Domestic Politics and Elections
Middle East Leaders Prefer Trump’s Victory
Jul 24, 2024Gregory AftandilianDonald J. Trump’s candidacy seems to draw more interest and support from the Middle East than from other areas of the world, particularly from among the ruling…
- Policy Analysis
Difficulties Facing a US-Saudi Security Agreement
Jun 25, 2024The search for a US-brokered Saudi-Israeli deal to normalize relations has assumed outsized significance in the administration’s approach to the Middle East.
- Policy Analysis
Exploring the Options: Arab Oil Exporters and the US Dollar
Jun 21, 2024The pricing of oil in US dollars is one of the perks the United States enjoys due to its status as the world’s largest economy and to the dollar’s role as the …
- Policy Analysis
Bracing for the Sandstorm: The Gulf Energy Transition Imperative
Jun 6, 2024Before the 2008-2009 financial crisis, the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) states—Bahrain, Kuwait, Oman, Qatar, Saudi Arabia, and the United Arab Emirates (UAE)…
- Policy Analysis
The Supremacy of Executive Power in Kuwait
Jun 4, 2024Two decades of political turbulence in Kuwait came to a head on the evening of May 10 when Emir Mishal al-Ahmad Al-Sabah announced he was suspending the Nation…
- Policy Analysis
Will Ebrahim Raisi’s Death Help Ultra-Hardliners ‘Make Iran Great Again’?
May 31, 2024The May 19 deaths of President Ebrahim Raisi and Foreign Minister Hossein Amir-Abdollahian in a fiery helicopter crash has created a challenge that Iran’s lead…
- Policy AnalysisUAERegional Relations and Geopolitics
UAE Restricts US Military Strikes from Its Territory
May 22, 2024Gregory AftandilianFearing an attack by Iran or its allied militias in the region, the United Arab Emirates (UAE) has restricted US military aircraft from targeting these proxy g…
- From our AffiliatesSaudi ArabiaConflicts and Conflict Resolution
Determinants of Saudi Arabia’s Response to the Gaza War
May 22, 2024Arab Center for Research and Policy StudiesFollowing Hamas’s “Operation Al-Aqsa Flood” on October 7, Saudi Arabia publicly criticized Israel’s actions in Gaza and blamed it for escalating tensions, desp…
- Viewpoint
Raisi Departs, But Iran Remains Khamenei’s Realm
May 20, 2024Iranian President Ebrahim Raisi’s death comes at a particularly precarious time for the Islamic Republic. While important, considering the monumental news, Sup…
- Policy Analysis
The Gaza Crisis Pushes Washington and Riyadh Closer
May 15, 2024Hamas’s May 6 acceptance of a hostage deal proposed by Egypt and Qatar was surely designed to induce the White House to pressure Israel to produce a counteroff…
- Policy AnalysisYemenConflicts and Conflict Resolution
Divergent Saudi-Emirati Agendas Cripple Yemen’s Presidential Leadership Council
May 15, 2024Afrah NasserTwo years into its existence, Yemen’s Presidential Leadership Council (PLC) still has not effectively addressed critical problems facing the country: a dire ec…
- Policy Analysis
Iraq’s Sudani Runs the Risks of Sustained Relations with the United States
May 7, 2024On his recent visit to the United States, Iraqi Prime Minister Mohammed Shia` al-Sudani proposed a bold new relationship with America, basing it on the joint S…
- Policy Analysis
Gulf Arab States Avoid Iran-Israel Tensions
Apr 25, 2024Years of shadow conflict between Israel and Iran, which included targeted assassinations as well as cyberattacks, gave way in April to direct confrontation and…
- Viewpoint
A Failed Iranian Performance and Its Repercussions
Apr 15, 2024Rare are the occasions when a purportedly capable country’s determined military response to attack turns out to be a mere theatrical performance. Such was the …
- Policy Analysis
Houthi Red Sea Attacks Have Global Economic Repercussions
Apr 5, 2024The Houthi attacks on Red Sea shipping present a new phenomenon in geo-economic conflict: a non-state actor using asymmetric warfare not just to fight conventi…
- Policy AnalysisSaudi ArabiaRegional Relations and Geopolitics
Saudi Arabia May Be Taking Center Stage in Post-Gaza Peace
Feb 28, 2024Kristian Coates UlrichsenWith Israel’s war on Gaza in its fifth month amid ongoing international pressure for a ceasefire, Saudi Arabia has become the focus of much attention over what…
- Policy Analysis
Instead of Houthi Designation, the United States Should Embrace a Comprehensive Approach
Feb 28, 2024On January 17, the United States designated the Houthis in Yemen, also known as Ansar Allah, as a Specially Designated Global Terrorist (SDGT) in response to t…
- Policy Analysis
The UAE and the Red Sea Security Crisis
Feb 27, 2024Despite the Israeli war on Gaza killing nearly 30,000 Palestinians, the United Arab Emirates (UAE) has clung to the Abraham Accords, which it signed with Israe…
- Policy AnalysisLevantUS Foreign Policy
US Troops to Stay in Syria and Iraq but Perhaps Not for Long
Feb 22, 2024Gregory AftandilianIn recent weeks, there have been meetings in Washington and in Baghdad about the presence in Iraq and Syria of US troops, whose official mandate is to aid loca…
- Policy Analysis
Turkish-Gulf Relations in the Context of Regional Reconciliation
Feb 14, 2024Since 2021, Turkey has been resetting its policies in the Middle East and has started to reconcile with its rivals in the previous decade—Egypt, Israel, Saudi …
- Policy Analysis
From Gaza to Yemen and Back: The Biden Administration’s Confused Strategy
Feb 1, 2024On January 17, the Biden administration announced it was adding Yemen’s Houthis (also called Ansar Allah) to the US terrorist list. The move returned the rebel…
- Policy AnalysisIranConflicts and Conflict Resolution
Iran Between Managing Allies and Modulating Its Deterrence
Jan 25, 2024Daniel BrumbergThis is a bad time for Iran to become embroiled in an expanding regional war that pits the Islamic Republic and its allies in Iraq, Lebanon, and Yemen against …
- Policy Analysis
The Biden Administration Is Strong in the Red Sea but Weak in Gaza
Jan 24, 2024After enduring weeks of regional tension, including Houthi rebel attacks on shipping in the Red Sea and on American commercial vessels, the Biden administratio…
- Policy AnalysisBahrainDiplomacy and Negotiations
Normalization Survives Despite the Gaza War
Jan 11, 2024Imad K. HarbThe current Israeli war on Gaza, now well into its fourth deadly month, has cast a calamitous shadow over the lives of Palestinians and Israelis, as well as ov…
- Policy AnalysisThe Arab WorldRegional Relations and Geopolitics
Important Considerations for the Middle East in 2024
Jan 10, 2024Yara M. Asi Daniel Brumberg Imad K. Harb Khalil E. Jahshan Tamara Kharroub Laurie King Dana El Kurd Yousef MunayyerThe October 7 Hamas attack on Israel and Israel’s subsequent invasion of the Gaza Strip will play a major role in shaping what unfolds in the Middle East in 20…
- Policy Analysis
Assessing Yemen as a Second Front in the Gaza War
Nov 30, 2023On November 19, Yemen’s Houthis hijacked a cargo ship indirectly linked to Israel as it was traveling in the Red Sea. Much like their firing of missiles toward…
- Policy Analysis
Hamas’s “Al-Aqsa Flood” Challenges Iran’s Axis of Resistance
Nov 27, 2023While the Biden administration, with Qatar’s support, has succeeded in securing a deal with Israel and Hamas for a combat “pause,” it remains to be seen if thi…
- Policy Analysis
GCC States and the War on Gaza: Positions, Perceptions, and Interests
Nov 22, 2023The war on Gaza has for all intents and purposes reinstated the centrality of the Palestinian issue to the regional and international politics of the Middle Ea…
- Policy Analysis
US Military Presence in the Middle East: Deterrence and Retaliation
Nov 14, 2023The United States has recently bolstered its military presence in the Middle East as the Israeli war on Gaza escalated. Bolstering this presence is meant to de…
- Policy Analysis
A Year of Mixed Results for Iraq’s Sudani
Nov 8, 2023Iraqi Prime Minister Mohammed Shi`a al-Sudani completed his first year in office on October 27 with a mixed record of successes and failures owing to objective…
- Policy Analysis
Iraq, Sudani, and the War on Gaza
Oct 25, 2023In the space of just over two weeks, Israel’s war on Gaza has upended Iraqi Prime Minister Mohammed Shai` al-Sudani’s year-long careful balancing of Iraq’s for…
- Policy AnalysisLevantConflicts and Conflict Resolution
Will Saudi Arabia Renew the “Arab Peace Initiative” as the Middle East Seethes?
Oct 23, 2023Daniel BrumbergWhether Hamas’s October 7 assault has ended whatever prospects existed for forging diplomatic relations between Israel and Saudi Arabia remains to be seen. The…
- Policy Analysis
On the Limits of Iran’s Policy of “Maximum Tactical Flexibility”
Oct 13, 2023At some point, the tactical balls Tehran has been juggling could fall to the ground with unpredictable or dangerous strategic results.
- Policy Analysis
Saudi-Israeli Normalization and the Hamas Attack
Oct 11, 2023When Saudi Arabian Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman (MBS) sat down on September 20 with Brett Baier of Fox News for his first English-language television inter…
- Policy AnalysisThe Arabian Peninsula and The GulfEnergy and Economics
The Geopolitics of the India-Middle East-Europe Economic Corridor
Oct 10, 2023Giorgio CafieroAt the G20 summit held in New Delhi in September 2023, the leaders of France, Germany, India, Italy, Saudi Arabia, the United Arab Emirates, the United States,…
- Policy AnalysisTurkeyEnergy and Economics
Turkey’s Ambitions in Iraq Play Out in Kirkuk
Oct 3, 2023Mustafa GurbuzIn late August, Iraqi Prime Minister Mohammed Shia’ al-Sudani stirred the pot of existing tensions when he ordered the evacuation of the Iraqi military’s Joint…
- Policy AnalysisYemenEnergy and Economics
Yemen’s War Economy: A Key Factor in the Ongoing Conflict
Sep 20, 2023Afrah NasserAs Houthi negotiators leave Saudi Arabia after five days of talks with Saudi officials regarding the contours of a compromise solution to Yemen’s ongoing confl…
- Policy Analysis
Challenges Facing Kuwait’s Parliamentary Democracy
Sep 12, 2023Watching Kuwait’s seemingly dysfunctional political scene gives one the impression that the country is on a course toward endless instability and disorder. Las…
- Policy Analysis
The Saudi-Israeli Normalization Gambit: Deal or No Deal?
Aug 30, 2023After weeks of conflicting accounts from columnists and journalists about the outcome of the Biden administration’s intensive shuttle diplomacy aimed at convin…
- Policy Analysis
The Russia-Ukraine Jeddah Meeting: A Win for MBS in a Changing Global Order
Aug 24, 2023Over the first weekend of August 2023, Saudi Arabia convened an international summit on the war in Ukraine. Held in Jeddah and attended by representatives from…
- Policy Analysis
The US Position on Saudi Arabia’s Civilian Nuclear Program
Aug 16, 2023In June 2023, Saudi Minister of Foreign Affairs Faisal bin Farhan Al Saud affirmed the kingdom’s intent to enrich uranium, part of its desire to develop a civi…
- Policy Analysis
Russia, Iran, and the Territorial Dispute with the UAE
Aug 16, 2023Under President Ebrahim Raisi, Iran has carved out an overseas agenda that is a patent departure from the country’s 1979 Revolution-era notion of “neither East…
- Policy Analysis
US Troop Buildup in the Gulf Reemphasizes Military Power
Aug 15, 2023The US military has recently significantly increased its presence in the Arabian Gulf, a show of force aimed primarily at deterring Iran from attacking or hara…
- Policy Analysis
US Negotiations for a Tripartite Agreement with Saudi Arabia and Israel: Context and Calculations
Aug 14, 2023Saudi Arabia and the United States are conducting complex negotiations in order to achieve a tripartite agreement that would include normalization between the …
- Policy Analysis
Iran’s Hardliners on the March: The Quiet Before the Storm?
Aug 3, 2023The recent redeployment of Iran’s dreaded “morality police” signals much more than a victory for the country’s hardliners. Instead, it seems to be part and par…
- Policy Analysis
Are the United States and Iran Moving Closer to a New Nuclear Deal?
Jul 14, 2023The last few weeks have witnessed an active diplomatic movement between Tehran and Western countries, especially the United States, regarding resolving the cri…
- Policy AnalysisIraqDemocracy and Governance
Sudani’s Premiership Is Failing in the Iraqi Fight Against Corruption
Jul 12, 2023Patricia KaramWhen Mohammed Shia` al-Sudani became prime minister of Iraq, he made it a priority to combat endemic corruption in the country and help restore citizen trust i…
- Policy Analysis
The UAE-Saudi Arabia Rivalry Becomes a Rift
Jul 6, 2023Saudi Arabia and the UAE are waging a quiet struggle to determine who will emerge as the Arabian Gulf’s—and maybe the Arab world’s—preeminent power.
- Policy Analysis
Saudi-US Relations in a Changing Global and Regional Landscape
Jun 29, 2023Kristian Coates Ulrichsen discusses the current state of Saudi-US relations as Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman seeks to chart a new course in domestic and for…
- Policy Analysis
Despite US Efforts, Iran is Ascendant
Jun 21, 2023Iran today is not nearly as isolated as Washington had hoped and it has scored some impressive successes in advancing its regional agenda.
- Policy AnalysisIraqUS Foreign Policy
Shock and Awe: Life in Iraq Twenty Years after the US-led Invasion
Jun 16, 2023Yara M. AsiThis year marks a significant milestone in the American-led “Global War on Terror,” especially in relation to Iraq. It has been 20 years since former Secretary…
- Policy Analysis
Egypt and Iran: A Quest for Normalized Ties Amid Significant Obstacles
Jun 9, 2023Egypt and Iran appear to be moving toward a closer relationship and a mending of ties. In recent months, officials from both countries have engaged in multiple…
- Policy AnalysisSaudi ArabiaRegional Relations and Geopolitics
The Jeddah Arab League Summit: MBS’s Final Crowning
May 31, 2023Imad K. HarbThe 32nd Arab League Summit was little more than the final crowning of Saudi Arabia’s Crown Prince as the leader of the current Arab political order.
- Policy AnalysisEgyptConflicts and Conflict Resolution
The Sudan Crisis: How Regional Actors’ Competing Interests Fuel the Conflict
May 11, 2023Khalil Al-AnaniThe outbreak of military clashes between the Sudanese Army and the paramilitary Rapid Support Forces (RSF), which have resulted in the deaths of hundreds and t…
- Policy Analysis
Saudi Oil Production Cuts: A Self-Interested Move
May 10, 2023Saudi Arabia’s announcement last month of surprise oil production cuts reverberated around the world. The cuts consisted of a voluntary reduction of 500,000 ba…
- Policy Analysis
Iran’s Involvement in the Ukraine War: Compromising Declared Principles
May 9, 2023Politicians and commentators are warning about the consequences of an emerging “Ukraine fatigue” in the second year of the Russian invasion of the country. The…
- Policy Analysis
The Thorny Relationship between Yemen’s Government and the Southern Transitional Council
May 3, 2023In Yemen, the Southern Movement calling for separation between the North and South of Yemen is controversial. For those who oppose it, it is a simple secession…
- Policy Analysis
Twenty Years after “Mission Accomplished” in Iraq: A Critical Assessment
May 2, 2023The crisis had been building for months when, on March 20, 2003, this author stood with a group of military officers deep inside the Pentagon, watching a telev…
- Policy AnalysisThe Arab WorldGlobal Health and Health Policy
Challenges Facing the Arab World’s Health Care Professionals
Apr 26, 2023Yara M. AsiIn 2022, the Egyptian Medical Syndicate released a shocking report, finding that over 10,000 Egyptian doctors resigned from positions in government hospitals d…
- Policy Analysis
The Costs and Benefits of Water Desalination in the Gulf
Apr 12, 2023Desalination has been identified as one technology that could help solve Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) countries’ water scarcity problem. Desalination is a co…
- Policy Analysis
Iran: A Resource-Rich Country Reeling from Rampant Poverty
Apr 3, 2023Even for a state as heavily militarized and intractable as the Islamic Republic of Iran, the breadth and depth of the economic maladies it is facing are crushi…
- Policy Analysis
Iran’s Nuclear Program Poses Challenges for China and the United States
Mar 29, 2023Now that China has brokered a renewal of relations between Iran and Saudi Arabia, it must translate that achievement into real tangible benefits. After all, fo…
- Policy Analysis
Geopolitics of Small Islands: The Stalemate of Tiran and Sanafir’s Transfer Impacts Egypt-Saudi Relations
Mar 29, 2023In June 2017, Egyptian President Abdel Fattah el-Sisi consented to ceding sovereignty over the islands of Tiran and Sanafir to Saudi Arabia. However, nearly si…
- Policy Analysis
The GCC Is On Board with the Saudi-Iran Agreement
Mar 27, 2023The signing of a joint trilateral statement by senior national security officials from Saudi Arabia and Iran in the presence of Chinese officials in Beijing on…
- Policy Analysis
Iraq 20 Years since the 2003 US Invasion
Mar 24, 2023On March 20, 2003, the United States led an invasion of Iraq supposedly meant to halt its development of weapons of mass destruction. Lacking the support of th…
- Policy Analysis
US Middle East Policy: The Trump-Biden Doctrine in Action
Mar 22, 2023All US presidents, it seems, need their own foreign policy “doctrine.” President James Monroe famously started the trend in 1823, and many others—Truman, Eisen…
- Policy Analysis
Yemen and the Saudi-Iran Rapprochement
Mar 22, 2023In the closing scene of the 1942 film Casablanca, Humphrey Bogart, walking off into the fog with his occasional nemesis as they plan their next move together, …
- Policy Analysis
Unfinished Business: Nation-Building in Iraq Since 2003
Mar 21, 2023Nothing so perfectly expresses the failure of nation-building in Iraq as the cry of protesters in 2019, when they chanted, nureed watan, “we want a country.” T…
- Policy Analysis
Lebanon and Syria and the Saudi-Iran Detente
Mar 21, 2023The recent China-brokered agreement between Saudi Arabia and the Islamic Republic of Iran is expected to have a de-escalating effect on many issues in the Midd…
- Policy Analysis
China as Middle East Matchmaker
Mar 16, 2023While the central role that China recently played in renewing diplomatic relations between Iran and Saudi Arabia underscores the United States’ declining influ…
- Policy Analysis
Oman’s Interests and Role in the Conflict in Yemen
Mar 14, 2023In the course of the conflict in Yemen, Oman’s role has evolved substantially and in various ways. Currently, expectations are high that the sultanate will be …
- Policy Analysis
Walking a Tightrope: Oman and Normalization with Israel
Mar 7, 2023As the mechanisms of normalization between Israel and the United Arab Emirates, Bahrain, Morocco, and Sudan continue to take shape, other Arab states are ponde…
- Policy Analysis
Iranian Protests and the Crisis of Free Speech
Feb 23, 2023There is consensus among scholars and observers that the protests that erupted in Iran in September 2022 represent a defining moment in the contemporary histor…
- Policy Analysis
Washington Doubles Down on Middle East Ties
Feb 15, 2023Reducing US commitments in the Middle East and pivoting to Asia has been a hot topic among foreign policy analysts and Middle East experts since the idea was p…
- Policy Analysis
Succeeding Khamenei: Can Iran’s Leaders Reinvent Their Islamic Republic?
Feb 3, 2023Iran’s Supreme Leader, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, is 83 years old. And while he has lived long enough to see the 44th anniversary of the Iranian Revolution, the s…
- Policy Analysis
Child Soldiers in Yemen: Cannon Fodder for an Unnecessary War
Feb 2, 2023Recruitment of children as actual or auxiliary soldiers in Yemen’s ongoing war is one of the most dire developments in the conflict since its initial eruption …