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  • Policy Analysis
    LebanonDemocracy and Governance

    Lebanon’s Oligarchy Consolidates Control over the Security Establishment

    Mar 22, 2017Joe Macaron

    After an impasse of nearly four years, on March 8 the Lebanese government announced a sectarian quota deal to fill the security establishment's leadership posi…

  • Policy Analysis
    LevantInternational Law

    Turkey-Europe Tensions: Where are They Headed?

    Mar 21, 2017Mustafa Gurbuz

    The escalation of tensions between Turkish and Dutch authorities seems to have played well in domestic political calculations in Turkey and the Netherlands. Tu…

  • Policy Analysis
    LevantViolent Extremism

    The Arab World after ISIL’s Defeat

    Mar 15, 2017Imad K. Harb Abdulwahab Al-Qassab Radwan Ziadeh Joe Macaron Tamara Kharroub

    Current efforts to defeat the Islamic State in Iraq and the Levant (ISIL) will, with time and sustained commitment, eventually lead to the physical destruction…

  • Policy Analysis
    LevantDemocracy and Governance

    Turnover: What Are the Implications of Recent and Upcoming Changes in Hamas?

    Mar 15, 2017Yousef Munayyer

    BackgroundSince its establishment in the 1980s, the Palestinian Islamic Resistance Movement, or Hamas, has increasingly become an important player in domestic …

  • Policy Analysis
    IranConflicts and Conflict Resolution

    Obstacles to President Trump’s Options on Iran

    Mar 14, 2017Imad K. Harb

    Almost two months into his presidency, Donald Trump has charted a clear path to tense relations between the United States and the Islamic Republic of Iran. Thi…

  • Policy Analysis
    LevantDemocracy and Governance

    Why Federalism Is a Bad Idea for Syria

    Mar 13, 2017Radwan Ziadeh

    In the middle of the discussion about transition in Syria, Russia proposed the idea of a federal republic, according to deputy foreign minister Sergei Ryabkov.…

  • Policy Analysis
    IranIdentity Politics and Sectarianization

    Turkey-Iran Relations: A Sectarian Future?

    Mar 8, 2017Mustafa Gurbuz

    The Syrian war and ensuing crisis in Iraq have put Turkey and Iran in an unprecedented sectarian rivalry. Competition over Iraqi Kurdistan will be a major test…

  • Policy Analysis
    LevantJustice, Equality, and Human Rights

    J Street Annual Conference: “Defending Our Values: Fighting for Our Future”

    Mar 8, 2017Roxanne Perugino

    J Street, the liberal left-of-center Jewish pro-peace, pro-Israel organization held its sixth annual conference at the end of February in Washington, DC. Over …

  • Policy Analysis
    International Law

    Trump’s Defense Budget Militarizes US Foreign Policy

    Mar 7, 2017Joe Macaron

    The signature blueprint of any US president is the federal budget. Donald Trump is giving us an insight into how he views the world and what resources he inten…

  • Policy Analysis
    IraqConflicts and Conflict Resolution

    Regaining Western Mosul: Consequences and Implications

    Mar 2, 2017Abdulwahab Al-Qassab

    img { margin: 5px; padding: 5px;}Since October 2016, the Iraqi government, supported by the US military, has waged one of its most difficult battles t…

  • Policy Analysis
    Regional Relations and Geopolitics

    How Will Trump Run Washington’s Favorite Killing Machine?

    Mar 2, 2017Joe Macaron

    In 2016, US unmanned aerial vehicles (UAVs) dropped on average three bombs every 60 minutes in the global fight against radical extremists. Nothing defined Pre…

  • Policy Analysis
    LebanonUS Foreign Policy

    The Trump Administration’s Hezbollah Problem

    Mar 2, 2017Imad K. Harb

    As paramilitary organizations go, Lebanon’s Hezbollah has achieved resounding success since its establishment by the revolutionary Iranian regime, which was ne…

  • Policy Analysis
    LevantJustice, Equality, and Human Rights

    Netanyahu and Trump Chart New US-Israel Relationship

    Feb 26, 2017Yousef Munayyer

    BackgroundOn February 15, 2017, Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu and President Donald Trump met in the White House for the first time since America’s …

  • Policy Analysis
    North AfricaConflicts and Conflict Resolution

    Democratization and Radicalization: Understanding Tunisia’s Model of Democratic Transition

    Feb 21, 2017Tamara Kharroub

    On February 1, 2017, German police arrested a Tunisian asylum seeker suspected of recruiting for the Islamic State of Iraq and the Levant (ISIL) and planning a…

  • Policy Analysis
    QatarRegional Relations and Geopolitics

    Erdoğan’s Gulf Tour: Reassurance without Substance?

    Feb 21, 2017Mustafa Gurbuz

    Contemporaneous visits to the Gulf region by Turkey’s President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan and Iran’s President Hassan Rouhani indicate urgent regional diplomacy in …

  • Policy Analysis
    EgyptSecurity and Defense

    Going Forward on Egyptian-American Relations

    Feb 21, 2017Imad K. Harb

    Egypt recently marked the sixth anniversary of the resignation of former President Hosni Mubarak and his handover of power to the Supreme Council of the Armed …

  • Policy Analysis
    LibyaUS Foreign Policy

    Libya after ISIL: What Will Trump Do?

    Feb 15, 2017Joe Macaron

    It is safe to say that at present, Libya might not be high on the agenda of President Donald Trump’s Administration. In December 2016, the Islamic State in Ira…

  • Policy Analysis
    Security and Defense

    General Flynn, We Hardly Knew You

    Feb 15, 2017Roxanne Perugino

    After serving only 24 days as President Donald Trump’s National Security Advisor, Lt. General Michael Flynn has resigned, leaving behind chaos within the Natio…

  • Policy Analysis
    LevantJustice, Equality, and Human Rights

    Receiving Netanyahu, Trump Must Emphasize America’s Interests

    Feb 14, 2017Imad K. Harb

    Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu comes to Washington this week to officially reset US-Israeli relations after the chill of the last few years of the Obama Adm…

  • Policy Analysis
    The Arabian Peninsula and The GulfThe GCC

    Developments in Yemen and American Strategic Calculations

    Feb 8, 2017Imad K. Harb

    It has been three years since Yemen’s National Dialogue Conference concluded its work to set the stage for a constitution for a six-region federated state. Thi…

  • Policy Analysis
    IranConflicts and Conflict Resolution

    Iran and Trump’s Strategy in the Gulf Region: What’s Next?

    Feb 8, 2017Abdulwahab Al-Qassab

    Iran’s recent launch of a medium range ballistic missile played to the Trump Administration’s expectations of Iranian behavior regarding strategic weaponry in …

  • Policy Analysis
    Security and Defense

    “America First” Will Compromise Homeland Security and Disrupt American Soft Power

    Feb 7, 2017Mustafa Gurbuz

    The Trump Administration’s two promises—pursuing an “America first” policy and exterminating radical jihadism—require an investment in American soft power that…

  • Policy Analysis
    IranIdentity Politics and Sectarianization

    General Mattis and Iraq: Motivations and Apprehensions

    Feb 3, 2017Abdulwahab Al-Qassab

    The appointment of retired US General James Mattis as Secretary of Defense comes during cautious times for both Iraqis and Americans. The Iraqis are anticipati…

  • Policy Analysis
    LevantJustice, Equality, and Human Rights

    Netanyahu Unrestrained: The Trump Effect on Israeli Politics

    Feb 3, 2017Yousef Munayyer

    BackgroundSince 2009, there have been two constants in the American-Israeli relationship: Barack Obama was President of the United States and Benjamin Netanyah…

  • Policy Analysis
    JordanSecurity and Defense

    Jordan’s King Abdallah in Washington: ISIL and Jerusalem

    Feb 1, 2017Joe Macaron

    In what was described as a working visit, Jordan’s King Abdullah II arrived on January 30, 2017, and became the first Arab leader to come to Washington since t…

  • Policy Analysis
    Democracy and Governance

    Ten Days of Trump: Prospects for Democracy and Human Rights vis-à-vis the Arab World

    Feb 1, 2017Tamara Kharroub

    In his first 10 days in office, President Trump signed executive orders and made statements that greatly influence US foreign policy, from suspending refugee r…

  • Policy Analysis
    Justice, Equality, and Human Rights

    Strategic Costs of the Muslim Ban

    Jan 30, 2017Imad K. Harb

    The Trump Administration’s first week has clearly exposed both its limited depth in strategic thinking and, worse, its lack of commitment to US leadership arou…

  • Policy Analysis
    LevantIdentity Politics and Sectarianization

    A World Between bin Laden and Breivik: Supremacist Ideologies Shaping the 21st Century

    Jan 26, 2017Yousef Munayyer

    From Austria, Hungary, Poland, Switzerland, and elsewhere on the European continent, right-wing political parties are on the rise. Nationalism, protectionism, …

  • Policy Analysis
    IraqDemocracy and Governance

    Iraqi Kurdistan’s Bid for Independence: Challenges and Prospects

    Jan 26, 2017Mustafa Gurbuz

    Masoud Barzani, the leader of the Kurdistan Regional Government (KRG) in Iraqi Kurdistan, has expressed his expectation for “a big change” in US policy under P…

  • Policy Analysis
    JordanConflicts and Conflict Resolution

    Forget Paris. It Won’t be Hard

    Jan 25, 2017Yousef Munayyer

    The Paris Peace Conference of January 15, 2017, barely amounted to a singular blip on radar. Some 70 countries participated in what was among the largest inter…

  • Policy Analysis
    IraqUS Foreign Policy

    Syria and Iraq in the Age of Trump: Challenges to American Interests

    Jan 25, 2017Imad K. Harb

    Now that the Trump Administration has taken over the reins of American diplomatic and military power, questions arise about how it intends to preserve America’…

  • Policy Analysis
    Democracy and Governance

    President Trump and the Republican Congress: Smooth Sailing or Choppy Waters?

    Jan 25, 2017Roxanne Perugino

    For only the third time since 1929, the Republican Party will control the House, Senate and the White House and have the opportunity to choose a Supreme Court …

  • Policy Analysis
    LebanonDemocracy and Governance

    Aoun in Riyadh: A Test for Lebanon’s Foreign Policy

    Jan 25, 2017Joe Macaron

    In November 2014, General Michel Aoun told the Lebanese daily newspaper, As-Safir, that the late Saudi foreign minister Saud al-Faisal was behind a veto to ele…

  • Policy Analysis
    OmanThe GCC

    Oman’s Needed Adjustment During the Trump Presidency

    Jan 18, 2017Imad K. Harb

    The Sultanate of Oman has arguably always been an outlier regarding unified Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) action since the organization’s establishment in 198…

  • Policy Analysis
    IraqIdentity Politics and Sectarianization

    Turkish-Iraqi Relations: Old Trends and Future Possibilities

    Jan 17, 2017Abdulwahab Al-Qassab

    Relations between Iraq and Turkey have been cordial and cautious since Iraq became independent of Ottoman suzerainty after WWI, when British forces invaded and…

  • Policy Analysis
    Palestine/IsraelUS Foreign Policy

    The Battle for DNC Chair: Palestine and Democratic Party Politics after Trump’s Election

    Jan 17, 2017Tamara Kharroub

    2016 was a tumultuous year for the Democratic Party. Democrats lost the White House, both houses of Congress, and a large number of gubernatorial races (two-th…

  • Policy Analysis
    LevantConflicts and Conflict Resolution

    Turkey at “the Gate” of Victory at Al-Bab: What’s Next?

    Jan 12, 2017

    The New Year’s Eve attack in Istanbul represents a significant change in relations between Turkey and the Islamic State in Syria and the Levant (ISIL). Althoug…

  • Policy Analysis
    LevantUS Foreign Policy

    Washington Rebalancing Away from the Middle East? Realities and Difficulties

    Jan 9, 2017Imad K. Harb

    In a speech to the Australian parliament in November 2011, President Barack Obama declared that the Asia-Pacific region had become a “top priority” in US secur…

  • Policy Analysis
    IranIdentity Politics and Sectarianization

    Rafsanjani’s Death and Its Impact on Iran’s Political Bazaar

    Jan 9, 2017Imad K. Harb

    The death of former Iranian President Ali Akbar Hashemi Rafsanjani comes at a critical time in the Islamic Republic’s political history. As one of the founders…

  • Policy Analysis
    LevantUS Domestic Politics and Elections

    Recalculating Route: America and Israel on Divergent Paths

    Jan 3, 2017Yousef Munayyer

    In May 2016, I wrote that the Obama Administration should carefully weigh options for how to address the Israeli/Palestinian issue during its last months in of…

  • Policy Analysis
    US Domestic Politics and Elections

    US President-elect Donald J. Trump and his Foreign Policy Cabinet Choices: Focus on Middle East Issues

    Dec 29, 2016Roxanne Perugino

    In the last few weeks, President-elect Donald Trump has been building his team of senior officials. The team selected as his foreign policy appointees presents…

  • Policy Analysis
    IranConflicts and Conflict Resolution

    After Aleppo: The Political and Regional Implications of the New Middle East “Troika”

    Dec 28, 2016Joe Macaron

    Since August 2016, new regional power dynamics have been emerging in the wars in Syria. The trend has manifested itself in the fall of Aleppo and the December …

  • Policy Analysis
    IranConflicts and Conflict Resolution

    Sidelining Asad: Questioning the Future of Russian-Iranian-Turkish Convergence in Syria

    Dec 27, 2016Imad K. Harb

    The battle of Aleppo has finally been decided in favor of the Syrian regime and its Russian, Iranian, and militia cohorts. But for all intents and purposes, th…

  • Policy Analysis
    LevantConflicts and Conflict Resolution

    UN Security Council Passes Resolution Against Israeli Settlements

    Dec 23, 2016Tamara Kharroub

    On Wednesday, December 21, 2016, Egypt circulated a draft resolution calling for an end to Israeli settlements and demanding Israel to “immediately and complet…

  • Policy Analysis
    US Domestic Politics and Elections

    Middle East Positions of Trump’s Cabinet

    Dec 23, 2016

     Sources: This information was collected and inferred by ACW based on statements, voting records, and other publicly available information.*The infographi…

  • Policy Analysis
    LevantConflicts and Conflict Resolution

    Breaking Ground in Jerusalem

    Dec 22, 2016Yousef Munayyer

    Some things are utterly predictable. The sun will always rise in the east, rain will always be wet, and US presidential candidates who promise to move the Amer…

  • Policy Analysis
    US Domestic Politics and Elections

    President-elect Donald Trump Nominates David Friedman as US Ambassador to Israel

    Dec 22, 2016Roxanne Perugino

    On December 15, 2016, President-elect Donald Trump nominated David Friedman to the post of US ambassador to Israel. Friedman, a bankruptcy lawyer, has no diplo…

  • Policy Analysis
    US Domestic Politics and Elections

    Secretary of Energy-designate Rick Perry 

    Dec 22, 2016Roxanne Perugino

    In an ironic twist, President-elect Donald Trump has chosen Texas Governor Rick Perry as his secretary of energy. The Energy Department is the same agency Perr…

  • Policy Analysis
    US Domestic Politics and Elections

    Profile of Secretary of State-designate Rex W. Tillerson

    Dec 15, 2016Roxanne Perugino

    President-elect Donald Trump named Rex Tillerson, Exxon-Mobil CEO, as his choice for secretary of state on December 13. The appointment is controversial and ha…

  • Policy Analysis
    LevantConflicts and Conflict Resolution

    What is Next for Turkey after the Fall of Aleppo?

    Dec 15, 2016Mustafa Gurbuz

    After the fall of Aleppo, Turkey’s capacity to maneuver in the region will suffer tremendously. Indeed, the fall of Aleppo has increased tensions among Syrian …

  • Policy Analysis
    IranConflicts and Conflict Resolution

    The GCC at 35: Regional Concerns and Strategic Hedging

    Dec 15, 2016Imad K. Harb

    Last week, the six-member Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) concluded its 37th summit meeting in Manama, Bahrain, amid many hopeful pronouncements as well as atte…

  • Policy Analysis
    Palestine/IsraelUS Foreign Policy

    Trump’s “Ultimate Deal” on Palestine/Israel

    Dec 8, 2016Tamara Kharroub

    In the first interview after his election victory, Donald J. Trump told The Wall Street Journal that he wants to broker a deal between Israel and the Palestini…

  • Policy Analysis
    LevantConflicts and Conflict Resolution

    The “Incredible” John Kerry: Ineffectiveness and Inconsistency

    Dec 8, 2016Yousef Munayyer

    It was painful to watch. Secretary of State John Kerry trying to explain and defend American foreign policy in the Middle East is such an uncomfortable sight. …

  • Policy Analysis
    US Domestic Politics and Elections

    Trump Nominates Treasury and Commerce Secretaries

    Dec 5, 2016Roxanne Perugino

    Steven Mnuchin, Secretary of the Treasury-designatePresident-elect Donald Trump has nominated his campaign finance chairman, Steven Mnuchin, to be secretary of…

  • Policy Analysis
    US Domestic Politics and Elections

    Trump Announces Retired USMC General James “Mad Dog” Mattis as Secretary of Defense

    Dec 5, 2016Roxanne Perugino

    On December 1, during a victory rally in Ohio, President-elect Donald Trump announced the nomination of retired Marine Corps General James “Mad Dog” Mattis to …

  • Policy Analysis
    Violent Extremism

    Countering Violent Extremism (CVE) in the United States: An Assessment of Domestic and International Efforts

    Dec 1, 2016Sara Lobo Tamara Kharroub

    Countering Violent Extremism, or CVE, is a relatively new but expanding framework of practices for US “soft power” engagement with radicalization and extremism…

  • Policy Analysis
    US Domestic Politics and Elections

    Trump Announces Additions to National Security Team

    Dec 1, 2016Roxanne Perugino

    Nikki R. Haley, Ambassador-designate to the United NationsOn November 22, 2016, President-elect Donald Trump nominated South Carolina Governor Nikki Haley as h…

  • Policy Analysis
    LebanonDemocracy and Governance

    The Misplaced Hope of Lebanon’s Presidential Election

    Dec 1, 2016Imad K. Harb

    Developments in Lebanon during November 2016 made it increasingly evident that the election as president of Michel Aoun, former general and leader of the Refor…

  • Policy Analysis
    US Domestic Politics and Elections

    Trump’s Cabinet Begins to Take Shape

    Nov 23, 2016Roxanne Perugino

    On November 18, President-elect Donald Trump named three Cabinet positions, all of which are considered controversial to varying degrees

  • Policy Analysis
    US Domestic Politics and Elections

    Understanding the Conditions Leading to Trump’s Victory

    Nov 17, 2016Arab Center for Research and Policy Studies (ACRPS)

    Donald Trump’s victory in the US presidential election on November 8 came as a complete shock to many in the United States and abroad, as if the statistical li…

  • Policy Analysis
    IraqConflicts and Conflict Resolution

    Mosul will not be Truly Liberated Without Strong Political Leadership

    Nov 17, 2016Mustafa Gurbuz

    The military victory in Mosul will not be sufficient unless the United States finds a political resolution, in cooperation with local parties, that addresses S…

  • Policy Analysis
    US Domestic Politics and Elections

    What can President-elect Trump achieve with a Republican Congress?

    Nov 17, 2016Roxanne Perugino

    Election ResultsIn a departure from the voter tradition of preferring a divided government, i.e. one party controlling the presidency and another the Congress,…

  • Policy Analysis
    IranConflicts and Conflict Resolution

    November 8: What’s at stake for the Arab world?

    Nov 7, 2016Joe Macaron

    What motivates the Arab world’s interest in the 2016 US presidential election is primarily the concern about Washington’s role in the Middle East as well as th…

  • Policy Analysis
    LevantDemocracy and Governance

    Arab Issues Awaiting the Next President

    Nov 7, 2016Imad K. Harb

    Amidst the maelstrom that is the presidential election, American foreign policy has regressed to the uncomfortable and neglected recesses reserved for untoucha…

  • Policy Analysis
    LebanonDemocracy and Governance

    End of Stalemate: A Loose Power-Sharing Agreement in Lebanon

    Oct 28, 2016Joe Macaron

    After a 30-month impasse that paralyzed the country’s governing institutions and questioned the legitimacy of the confessional system, the Lebanese Parliament …

  • Policy Analysis
    IraqConflicts and Conflict Resolution

    The Battle of Mosul Portends the Future of Iraq

    Oct 28, 2016Imad K. Harb

    The long-awaited battle to retake the Iraqi city of Mosul from the Islamic State in Iraq and Syria (ISIS) is underway. Months prior, the Iraqi army and police,…

  • Policy Analysis
    IraqConflicts and Conflict Resolution

    ‘Underlearning’ the Lessons of Iraq: American Agility and Russian Influence

    Oct 20, 2016Yousef Munayyer

    Perhaps one of the most cited criticisms of US foreign policy relating to Syria today is the notion that President Barack Obama has “overlearned” the lessons o…

  • Policy Analysis
    LevantConflicts and Conflict Resolution

    The New Regional Order amid the Aleppo Rubble

    Oct 20, 2016Joe Macaron

    It became obvious in recent weeks that the US-Russian channel regarding Syria has run its course and can no longer be the bedrock of serious diplomatic efforts…

  • Policy Analysis
    US Domestic Politics and Elections

    The Two Presidential Candidates and Their Middle East Policies

    Oct 13, 2016Roxanne Perugino

    Most voters almost never decide a presidential election based on foreign policy, but Clinton is one of the leaders of the centrist Democratic foreign policy es…

  • Policy Analysis
    LevantConflicts and Conflict Resolution

    Colombia Peace Talks: Lessons for Palestine Policy

    Oct 13, 2016Yousef Munayyer

    After four years of painstaking negotiations, the 52-year war in Colombia between the government and rebels looked like it was coming to an end. Then, in one d…

  • Policy Analysis
    EgyptSecurity and Defense

    Future US-Egyptian Relations: The Old Status Quo Redux

    Oct 13, 2016Imad K. Harb

    A long time ago, there appeared to be a symbiotic relationship between the United States and Egypt. The former was a strategic benefactor that understood the i…

  • Policy Analysis
    IranConflicts and Conflict Resolution

    Hezbollah, Iran, and the Politics of Obstructionism

    Sep 23, 2016Imad K. Harb

    On September 7, Lebanon’s Parliament failed for the forty-third time to convene a session to elect a president. Since the expiration of former president Michel…

  • Policy Analysis
    LevantConflicts and Conflict Resolution

    Doomed to Fail: Syria is not Ready for a Ceasefire

    Sep 23, 2016Joe Macaron

    For the second time in nearly six months, Washington and Moscow are striving to implement a nationwide ceasefire in Syria. The ultimate objective of establishi…

  • Policy Analysis
    LevantSecurity and Defense

    New US-Israeli Military Aid Package Reflects Shifts in Relationship

    Sep 15, 2016Yousef Munayyer

    On September 14, 2016 the United States and Israel signed a new 10-year Memorandum of Understanding (MOU) on military aid, which replaces a previous MOU set to…

  • Policy Analysis
    US Domestic Politics and Elections

    Senate Races 2016 Update

    Sep 7, 2016Roxanne Perugino

    In 62 days voters will cast their ballots for President and for 34 Senate seats up for re-election.  Democrats remain cautiously optimistic that their party ca…

  • Policy Analysis
    LevantReligion and Politics

    Implications of Al-Qaeda Rebranding in Syria

    Aug 31, 2016Radwan Ziadeh

     The announcement by the top leader of Al-Nusra Front in Syria Abu Mohammed Joulani to distance his group from Al-Qaeda last month was very controversial.…

  • Policy Analysis
    LevantRegional Relations and Geopolitics

    The US fatal mistake in northern Syria

    Aug 31, 2016Joe Macaron

     The moment the Turkish incursion into Syrian Territory began on August 24, the stage was set for a looming direct military confrontation between Ankara a…

  • Policy Analysis
    LevantDemocracy and Governance

    Biden in Ankara enticing Erdogan to weigh his options

    Aug 24, 2016Joe Macaron

    Vice President Joe Biden visited Ankara on August 24 to salvage the remnants of US interests in Turkey. The July 15 military coup attempt left President Recep …

  • Policy Analysis
    US Domestic Politics and Elections

    The 2016 Congressional Elections

    Aug 11, 2016John Gregory

    I. Can Democrats Reclaim the Senate?Every two years, one-third of the Senate is up for re-election.  Elections are staggered to avoid having both Senators from…

  • Policy Analysis
    US Domestic Politics and Elections

    A Sane Alternative to Trump: Hillary has yet to Define her Nomination

    Aug 2, 2016Joe Macaron

    After scrambling to unite her Democratic Party at the outset of the convention in Philadelphia last week, presidential nominee Hillary Clinton rolled out her n…