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- Policy Analysis
JordanUS Foreign PolicyWill Trump’s Jerusalem Move Unravel US-Jordanian Relations?
Jan 11, 2018Joe MacaronPresident Trump’s decision to recognize Jerusalem as Israel’s capital is testing US-Jordanian relations and shifting how Amman views its regional role.
- Policy Analysis
EgyptConflicts and Conflict ResolutionEgyptian and Jordanian Relations with Israel under Strain
Jan 10, 2018Gregory AftandilianGenerally cordial and cooperative, Egyptian and Jordanian relations with Israel are currently strained following provocative actions by the U.S. and Israel on …
- Policy Analysis
IraqDemocracy and GovernanceUnsettling Times for Iraqi Kurdistan
Jan 10, 2018Mustafa GurbuzThe Sulaymaniyah protests last December have revealed a deep split in Iraqi Kurdistan. By pitting Sulaymaniyah against Irbil, Baghdad aims to capitalize on the…
- Policy Analysis
LevantUS Foreign PolicyThe Middle East in 2018: A Trump Administration To-Do List
Jan 9, 2018Charles W. DunneUS Middle East priorities in 2018 include Iran, the fate of the two-state solution, and managing instability in Iraq and Syria. US policy confusion and lack of…
- Policy Analysis
IranDemocracy and GovernanceRegime Unity Will Decide the Fate of Iran’s Protests
Jan 4, 2018Imad K. HarbIranian protesters’ slogans and demands indicate that there is much angst and frustration with the slow pace of political reform, the glacial movement of econo…
- Policy Analysis
LevantReligion and PoliticsThe Many Angles of Turkey’s Fight for Jerusalem
Dec 28, 2017Mustafa GurbuzTurkey’s championing of the cause of Jerusalem is genuine but also serves its interest in restoring its relations with the Arab countries and increasing its so…
- Policy Analysis
Saudi ArabiaThe GCCCostly Mistakes in Saudi Decision-Making in Yemen and Lebanon
Dec 27, 2017Imad K. HarbSaudi Arabia’s mistakes and poor decision-making in Yemen and Lebanon have been at the heart of recent failures to deal with the two countries and have allowed…
- Policy Analysis
LevantDemocracy and GovernanceThe Syrian Opposition Faces an Existential Crisis
Dec 21, 2017Joe MacaronAfter losing important bargaining chips such as control of territory and ability to declare a ceasefire, the Syrian opposition may not be able to influence the…
- Research Paper
Identity Politics and SectarianizationWhat Defines Terrorism? The Identity of the Victim or the Victimizer?
Dec 20, 2017Azmi BisharaNo great analytical effort is required to illustrate the widespread use of the terms “terrorism” and “counterterrorism” in today’s world. These terms dominate …
- Policy Analysis
EgyptRegional Relations and GeopoliticsPutin in Egypt as the United States Retreats
Dec 19, 2017Gregory AftandilianFrom the perspective of President Abdel Fattah el-Sisi, warming relations with Moscow sends a signal to Washington that the US-Egyptian bilateral relationship …
- Policy Analysis
LibyaDemocracy and GovernanceLibya’s Modern Slavery and the Politics of Denial
Dec 18, 2017Mohammed CherkaouiThe treatment of refugees and migrants in Libya raises new questions about three major political, socioeconomic, and moral dilemmas for the Libyan government, …
- Policy Analysis
EgyptMedia and TechnologyPress Freedom Reversals in Post-Arab Spring Countries
Dec 18, 2017Sahar KhamisJust like the path to democratization and reform has been obstructed or derailed in most of the Arab Spring countries, so has the path to media freedom, in a p…
- Policy Analysis
LevantConflicts and Conflict ResolutionUsing Its Syrian Foothold, Russia Expands in the Middle East
Dec 14, 2017Charles W. DunneRussia’s victory in Syria does not merely prop up the Assad regime but, more broadly, helps propel Moscow’s strategic interests in the wider Middle East.
- Policy Analysis
LevantInternational LawTrump’s Jerusalem Declaration: The Oslo Era’s Final Act
Dec 13, 2017Yousef MunayyerTrump’s declaration about Jerusalem isolated the United States, unified the Arab and Muslim worlds, and may have given the Europeans a chance to play a role as…
- Policy Analysis
LevantEnergy and EconomicsTurkey’s Policy toward a Fractured Libya
Dec 12, 2017Mustafa GurbuzTurkey is interested in being on good terms with all Libyan factions but is caught up in the complex relations between Libya’s political forces and their regio…
- Policy Analysis
Saudi ArabiaDemocracy and GovernanceImplications of Saleh’s Assassination on Yemen’s Future
Dec 8, 2017Joe MacaronFor the Iranian regime, Yemen remains a low-risk investment at Saudi Arabia’s border; and the impression in Tehran is that Saleh’s assassination forced Riyadh’…
- Policy Analysis
QatarEnergy and EconomicsThe GCC’s Future Is in the Balance after Its 38th Summit Meeting
Dec 7, 2017Imad K. HarbThe GCC should be preserved despite the failure of its 38th summit meeting in Kuwait and the establishment of a Saudi Arabian-Emirati new political and militar…
- Policy Analysis
JordanInternational LawTrump’s Jerusalem Announcement: Big Gambit, Little Gain
Dec 6, 2017Tamara KharroubThis is indeed a shameful day for the United States, where accrediting military force, violating international law, and supporting apartheid in Jerusalem mark …
- Policy Analysis
EgyptReligion and PoliticsEgypt Still Banking on Libya’s Haftar While Reaching Out to Other Leaders
Dec 4, 2017Gregory AftandilianEconomic and primarily security interests drive Egypt’s Sisi to support General Khalifa Haftar, strongman in eastern Libya, against Islamist movements while al…
- Policy Analysis
LevantUS Foreign PolicyMissing Considerations of the Counterterrorism Alliance
Nov 29, 2017Imad K. HarbThe first meeting of the Islamic Military Counterterrorism Coalition, which took place in Riyadh, may have provided recognition of MbS’s leadership of the Musl…
- Policy Analysis
LevantUS Foreign PolicyUS Military Planning in the Middle East: Increasing Challenges, Vague Strategies
Nov 28, 2017Charles W. DunneUncertainties about US military policy, intentions, and ambitions in the Middle East together with many political challenges and developments increase the conf…
- Policy Analysis
LevantConflicts and Conflict ResolutionArab Normalization with Israel Frames Trump Peace Plan
Nov 22, 2017Yousef MunayyerPresident Trump’s peace plan in the Middle East embraces the “outside-in” approach for peace between Palestinians and Israelis with a risky Arab-Israeli normal…
- Policy Analysis
Saudi ArabiaConflicts and Conflict ResolutionTrump Embraces the Saudi Vision of the Yemen Conflict
Nov 22, 2017Gregory AftandilianPresident Trump has adopted the Saudi leadership’s position that the Yemen conflict is a case of Iranian and proxy adventurism that needs to be rolled back and…
- Policy Analysis
North AfricaDemocracy and GovernanceChallenges to Tunisia’s Transition to Democracy
Nov 21, 2017Mohammed CherkaouiRecent moves by the Tunisian executive suggest that the Jasmine Revolution is not unfolding as smoothly as expected and that the country may not be the excepti…
- Policy Analysis
EgyptDemocracy and GovernanceIs Egypt’s Population Growth a Blessing or a Curse?
Nov 20, 2017Sahar KhamisAt 98 million, Egypt’s rapid population growth is a threat to the national economy and an obstacle to the country’s prospects for development and prosperity.
- Policy Analysis
Saudi ArabiaDemocracy and GovernanceIs Power Trumping Legitimacy in Saudi Arabia?
Nov 16, 2017Imad K. HarbPrince Mohammed bin Salman’s Machiavellianism endangers at least three pillars of legitimate rule in Saudi Arabia: royal family consensual decision-making, con…
- Policy Analysis
LebanonDemocracy and GovernanceUS Curbs Saudi Arabia’s Surge in Lebanon
Nov 14, 2017Joe MacaronClear statements from the White House and the Department of State appear to have curbed the Saudi surge in Beirut and toned down Riyadh’s rhetoric against the …
- Policy Analysis
North AfricaConflicts and Conflict ResolutionEmerging Security Challenges in North and West Africa
Nov 8, 2017Mohammed CherkaouiThe appearance of stability in the countries of north and west Africa belies a dangerous reality of the existence of many extremist groups feeding on poor soci…
- Policy Analysis
JordanConflicts and Conflict ResolutionBilateral Disagreements Aside, Jordan and Israel Agree on Syria
Nov 7, 2017Gregory AftandilianJordan and Israel view military activities by Sunni extremists groups and by Hezbollah as threats and are using their developing ties with Russia to try to mit…
- Policy Analysis
Saudi ArabiaDemocracy and GovernanceIs Mohammed bin Salman Overplaying His Hand?
Nov 6, 2017Imad K. HarbMohammed bin Salman may think that consolidating power in his hands will help the kingdom face its challenges, but he would do well to know that sidelining imp…
- Policy Analysis
IraqRegional Relations and GeopoliticsAmid Regional Chaos, US Seeks Improved Saudi-Iraqi Ties
Nov 6, 2017Charles W. DunneDespite many pitfalls, the Trump Administration is quite keen on helping to improve relations between Saudi Arabia and Iraq in an effort to contain Iranian inf…
- Policy Analysis
LevantConflicts and Conflict ResolutionIs Palestinian Reconciliation Viable This Time?
Nov 3, 2017Khalil E. JahshanThe Fatah-Hamas reconciliation agreement is the product of political manipulation between parties that lack confidence in each other’s strategic objectives. Th…
- Policy Analysis
LevantConflicts and Conflict ResolutionA Century after Balfour: Israel’s Knesset Wants All of Palestine
Nov 2, 2017Yousef MunayyerA hundred years after the Balfour Declaration, Israeli lawmakers are slated to take legislative steps that, instead of moving toward democracy, would only doub…
- Policy Analysis
LevantConflicts and Conflict ResolutionRaqqa’s Liberation and US Policy in Syria
Oct 31, 2017Radwan ZiadehThe Islamic State’s defeat in Raqqa was met with widespread approval among all Syrians, but the Kurds’ control of the liberated city and its surroundings promp…
- Policy Analysis
LevantRegional Relations and GeopoliticsAnkara’s Ambiguous Policy toward a Divided GCC
Oct 30, 2017Mustafa GurbuzAs a key player in the GCC crisis, Turkey has tried to support Qatar while avoiding potential deterioration in Ankara-GCC relations, which would result in nega…
- Policy Analysis
EgyptIdentity Politics and SectarianizationEgypt’s Security Challenges in the Sinai Belie the Government’s Rhetoric
Oct 26, 2017Gregory AftandilianClashes in the northern Sinai Peninsula that resulted in scores of deaths of Egyptian security forces have underscored the durability of the extremist insurgen…
- Policy Analysis
Saudi ArabiaDemocracy and GovernanceDomestic Troubles for the Saudi Arabian Leadership
Oct 24, 2017Imad K. HarbMohammed bin Salman’s challenge to established norms of governance in Saudi Arabia and the abrupt changes in its economic and social conditions may help pull t…
- Policy Analysis
LibyaConflicts and Conflict ResolutionLibya’s Complicated Search for a Leader
Oct 24, 2017Mohammed CherkaouiLibya faces an uneasy distinction between a fragile state and a failed state and has fallen between the cracks of a dispute over legitimacy, struggle for power…
- Policy Analysis
IraqConflicts and Conflict ResolutionThe Kirkuk Battle Is a Watershed Event for Iraq
Oct 19, 2017Abdulwahab Al-QassabThe Iraqi central government harnessed domestic and international support to abort the Kurdish referendum for independence, in the process weakening the KRG’s …
- Policy Analysis
LevantMigrants, Refugees, and IDPsThe Challenges of Turkey’s Operation in Syria’s Idlib
Oct 19, 2017Mustafa GurbuzTurkey is concerned about who controls neighboring Idlib Province in Syria but is equally interested in thwarting the Syrian Kurds’ plans for autonomy south of…
- Policy Analysis
US Domestic Politics and ElectionsUndermining Tillerson and the Demise of US Soft Power
Oct 19, 2017Joe MacaronPresident Trump’s public undermining of his Secretary of State Rex Tillerson is causing a paradigm shift in the international system. However, replacing Tiller…
- Policy Analysis
IranSecurity and DefenseThe Art of (Decertifying) the Deal: Trump’s Iran Strategy and the Nuclear Agreement’s Future
Oct 17, 2017Charles W. DunneThe president’s decertifying the Iran nuclear deal does not terminate US participation in the JCPOA but opens the door to such a move, roils US relations with …
- Policy Analysis
LebanonDemocracy and GovernanceWill US, Saudi Pressure Deter Hezbollah in Lebanon?
Oct 12, 2017Joe MacaronGiven the current status quo in Lebanon, the best American and Saudi pressure can do is to make the country’s political environment unbearable for Hezbollah.
- Policy Analysis
IraqDemocracy and GovernanceThe Kurdish Referendum and Cross-Communal Dynamics in Iraq
Oct 12, 2017Gregory AftandilianWhile Abadi’s popularity has risen because of his stewardship of the successful anti-Islamic State campaign, his standing could be jeopardized if the crisis ov…
- Policy Analysis
Arab Americans/ Muslim AmericansCountering Violent Extremism under the Trump Administration: Shortsighted and Counterproductive
Oct 11, 2017Tamara KharroubTo counter violent extremism, the Trump Administration would better serve US interests and security by focusing on fostering democratic governance, investing i…
- Policy Analysis
MoroccoDemocracy and GovernanceMorocco’s Rif Rises against the Makhzen’s Power
Oct 4, 2017Mohammed CherkaouiMorocco’s popular protests highlight three intersecting dilemmas: the future legitimacy of the monarchy, poor governance and widespread corruption, and the pot…
- Policy Analysis
EgyptDemocracy and GovernanceEgypt’s Role in Arab Politics: Punching Below its Weight
Oct 4, 2017Charles W. DunneEgypt’s traditional influence in the Arab world is a function of its ability to help resolve its problems. This influence is today on a downward trajectory as …
- Policy Analysis
IraqIdentity Politics and SectarianizationDoes Turkey Really Want to Punish Iraqi Kurdistan?
Oct 3, 2017Mustafa GurbuzTurkey may feel that it has to impose punitive measures against Iraqi Kurdistan over the referendum but countervailing Turkish domestic political conditions ma…
- Policy Analysis
IraqDemocracy and GovernanceIraq’s Kurds Vote to Secede, but Problems Loom
Oct 2, 2017Imad K. Harb Khalil E. Jahshan Joe Macaron Marcus Montgomery Abdulwahab Al-Qassab Radwan Ziadeh Mustafa GurbuzThe widespread disapproval of the Kurdish referendum inside Iraq, the region, and internationally points to potential serious developments for the Kurds and a …
- Policy Analysis
LevantConflicts and Conflict ResolutionMahmoud Abbas: A Lone Voice in the UN Wilderness
Sep 29, 2017Khalil E. JahshanPresident Abbas’s speech before the United Nations was true to the Palestinian essentials of appealing for justice in Palestine, denouncing Israel’s excesses a…
- Policy Analysis
IraqConflicts and Conflict ResolutionThe Strategic Implications of Reopening the Baghdad-Amman Highway
Sep 29, 2017Joe MacaronWhile pivotal for Jordan’s and Iraq’s economies, the recent re-opening of the Amman-Baghdad highway has strategic and security implications for faraway powers …
- Policy Analysis
IraqDemocracy and GovernanceThe Follies and Pitfalls of the Kurdish Referendum
Sep 22, 2017Abdulwahab Al-QassabThe Kurdish referendum is a dangerous play with delicate Kurdish and Iraqi politics to shore up KRG President Masood Barzani’s legitimacy in Iraqi Kurdistan.
- Policy Analysis
IranInternational LawTrump’s United Nations Speech: More of the Same
Sep 20, 2017Marcus MontgomeryPresident Trump’s speech before the UN mixed isolationism and economic nationalism with calls for international consensus building, two irreconcilable position…
- Policy Analysis
LevantConflicts and Conflict ResolutionFuture Implications of the Islamic State’s Demise in Syria
Sep 20, 2017Radwan ZiadehSyria’s developments regarding the Islamic State’s expected demise and the Astana meeting should not be taken to signal an end to the country’s war which has l…
- Policy Analysis
The Arabian Peninsula and The GulfSecurity and DefenseThe US and the GCC: A Steep Learning Curve for President Trump
Sep 18, 2017Imad K. HarbIn its first year in office, the Trump Administration must work on remedying its shortcomings on Gulf affairs and strive to safeguard the GCC’s unity as a stra…
- Policy Analysis
Saudi ArabiaConflicts and Conflict ResolutionThe Trump Administration’s Wishful Policies in the Yemen Conflict
Sep 13, 2017Gregory AftandilianProlonging the Yemeni conflict with unending military assistance to the Saudi-led campaign has been a disaster. The long-suffering Yemeni people deserve a chan…
- Policy Analysis
North AfricaJustice, Equality, and Human RightsA New Tunisian Law Tackles Violence Against Women
Sep 12, 2017Sahar KhamisThe new Tunisian law against violence against women sets a new model for the Arab world to emulate and raises the bar in the struggle for women’s rights and ge…
- Policy Analysis
The Arabian Peninsula and The GulfConflicts and Conflict ResolutionTroubling Ambiguities in the UAE’s Role in Yemen
Sep 8, 2017Imad K. HarbThe UAE’s ambiguous policies in Yemen expose the entire restoration of Yemeni legitimacy to uncertain circumstances, put it and Saudi Arabia at cross purposes,…
- Policy Analysis
The Arabian Peninsula and The GulfConflicts and Conflict ResolutionCan the Gulf Cooperation Council Survive the Current Crisis?
Sep 7, 2017Kristian Coates UlrichsenThe GCC is likely to survive the current crisis, at least on paper, but to become far less relevant as policymaking is driven by younger decision-makers who ha…
- Policy Analysis
LevantConflicts and Conflict ResolutionWill Netanyahu’s Legal Troubles Break the Stalemate?
Aug 31, 2017Yousef MunayyerWith or without Benyamin Netanyahu, there is little reason to believe that any likely foreseeable Israeli government will be ready for peace with the Palestini…
- Policy Analysis
LevantUS Foreign PolicyAn Evaluation of President Trump’s Emerging Counterterrorism Strategy
Aug 30, 2017Charles W. DunnePresident Trump’s counterterrorism strategy that relies on military solutions is unlikely to succeed in a region with complex politics, dubious allies, and lon…
- Policy Analysis
EgyptDemocracy and GovernanceEgypt’s Extremist Groups and the Shrinking Political Space
Aug 29, 2017Gregory AftandilianThe Egyptian government’s repressive policies have contributed to the problem of extremism by constricting political space, severely cracking down on opponents…
- Policy Analysis
EgyptJustice, Equality, and Human RightsIs the Trump-Sisi Honeymoon Over?
Aug 28, 2017Imad K. HarbThe State Department’s decision on aid to Egypt shows that the Trump Administration cannot sidestep established law or Congress’s power of appropriation despit…
- Policy Analysis
IranConflicts and Conflict ResolutionIs the Turkey-Iran Rapprochement Durable in Iraq and Syria?
Aug 24, 2017Mustafa GurbuzGiven the historical nature of the Turkish-Iranian rivalry, a durable rapprochement between Turkey and Iran requires assurances about the future of the Kurds a…
- Policy Analysis
LevantConflicts and Conflict ResolutionStakeholders of the Syrian Conflict Divide the Pie
Aug 23, 2017Joe MacaronThe recent local and regional developments in Syria signal that it is entering a new phase where major powers are coming to terms with a compromise that the Sy…
- Policy Analysis
LibyaConflicts and Conflict ResolutionThe Still Elusive Libyan Peace
Aug 17, 2017Imad K. HarbThe political impasse in Libya may pave the way for a final collapse of the nearly failed Libyan state and the subsequent divorce between the eastern and weste…
- Policy Analysis
IraqSecurity and DefenseThe Realities and Challenges of a New US SOFA with Iraq
Aug 15, 2017Gregory AftandilianThe United States and Iraq are currently negotiating a new Status of Forces Agreement that is contingent upon numerous domestic, regional, and American conditi…
- Policy Analysis
EgyptConflicts and Conflict ResolutionAn Economic Explanation for Egypt’s Alignment in the GCC Crisis
Aug 9, 2017Imad K. HarbWith Egypt heavily reliant on Saudi Arabia and the UAE for its economic stability and survival, Cairo may not find much room for independent foreign policy dec…
- Policy Analysis
LebanonConflicts and Conflict ResolutionStretched over Two Borders, Hezbollah is Making Israel Anxious
Aug 8, 2017Joe MacaronIn the long run, the risks of confrontation between Israel and Hezbollah may largely depend on how the US-Russia deal will unfold in southern Syria.
- Policy Analysis
IraqDemocracy and GovernanceExistential Questions: Iraq Gears up for Elections
Aug 7, 2017Charles W. DunneIraqi political forces are beginning to come together, pick fights, ingratiate themselves with potential foreign patrons, and evaluate the mood of the country …
- Policy Analysis
LevantConflicts and Conflict ResolutionTaylor Force Act: Putting the Palestinian Authority on Notice
Aug 3, 2017Marcus MontgomerySenators have agreed to revise a bill that will put the Palestinian Authority on notice, conditioning US aid to the PA on ending payments to Palestinian prison…
- Policy Analysis
Saudi ArabiaDemocracy and GovernanceMohammed bin Salman’s Elevation and the Way Forward
Aug 1, 2017Imad K. HarbCrown Prince Mohammed bin Salman faces serious challenges in affirming Saudi Arabia’s domestic stability and addressing the fallout from the GCC crisis and the…




