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- Policy AnalysisIraqDemocracy and Governance
The Kurdish Referendum and Cross-Communal Dynamics in Iraq
Oct 12, 2017Gregory AftandilianWhile Abadi’s popularity has risen because of his stewardship of the successful anti-Islamic State campaign, his standing could be jeopardized if the crisis ov…
- Policy AnalysisIraqIdentity Politics and Sectarianization
Does Turkey Really Want to Punish Iraqi Kurdistan?
Oct 3, 2017Mustafa GurbuzTurkey may feel that it has to impose punitive measures against Iraqi Kurdistan over the referendum but countervailing Turkish domestic political conditions ma…
- Policy AnalysisIraqDemocracy and Governance
Iraq’s Kurds Vote to Secede, but Problems Loom
Oct 2, 2017Imad K. Harb Khalil E. Jahshan Joe Macaron Marcus Montgomery Abdulwahab Al-Qassab Radwan Ziadeh Mustafa GurbuzThe widespread disapproval of the Kurdish referendum inside Iraq, the region, and internationally points to potential serious developments for the Kurds and a …
- Policy AnalysisIraqConflicts and Conflict Resolution
The Strategic Implications of Reopening the Baghdad-Amman Highway
Sep 29, 2017Joe MacaronWhile pivotal for Jordan’s and Iraq’s economies, the recent re-opening of the Amman-Baghdad highway has strategic and security implications for faraway powers …
- Policy AnalysisIraqDemocracy and Governance
The Follies and Pitfalls of the Kurdish Referendum
Sep 22, 2017Abdulwahab Al-QassabThe Kurdish referendum is a dangerous play with delicate Kurdish and Iraqi politics to shore up KRG President Masood Barzani’s legitimacy in Iraqi Kurdistan.
- Policy AnalysisIranInternational Law
Trump’s United Nations Speech: More of the Same
Sep 20, 2017Marcus MontgomeryPresident Trump’s speech before the UN mixed isolationism and economic nationalism with calls for international consensus building, two irreconcilable position…
- Policy AnalysisThe Arabian Peninsula and The GulfSecurity and Defense
The US and the GCC: A Steep Learning Curve for President Trump
Sep 18, 2017Imad K. HarbIn its first year in office, the Trump Administration must work on remedying its shortcomings on Gulf affairs and strive to safeguard the GCC’s unity as a stra…
- Policy AnalysisSaudi ArabiaConflicts and Conflict Resolution
The Trump Administration’s Wishful Policies in the Yemen Conflict
Sep 13, 2017Gregory AftandilianProlonging the Yemeni conflict with unending military assistance to the Saudi-led campaign has been a disaster. The long-suffering Yemeni people deserve a chan…
- Policy AnalysisThe Arabian Peninsula and The GulfConflicts and Conflict Resolution
Troubling Ambiguities in the UAE’s Role in Yemen
Sep 8, 2017Imad K. HarbThe UAE’s ambiguous policies in Yemen expose the entire restoration of Yemeni legitimacy to uncertain circumstances, put it and Saudi Arabia at cross purposes,…
- Policy AnalysisThe Arabian Peninsula and The GulfConflicts and Conflict Resolution
Can the Gulf Cooperation Council Survive the Current Crisis?
Sep 7, 2017Kristian Coates UlrichsenThe GCC is likely to survive the current crisis, at least on paper, but to become far less relevant as policymaking is driven by younger decision-makers who ha…
- Policy AnalysisLevantUS Foreign Policy
An Evaluation of President Trump’s Emerging Counterterrorism Strategy
Aug 30, 2017Charles W. DunnePresident Trump’s counterterrorism strategy that relies on military solutions is unlikely to succeed in a region with complex politics, dubious allies, and lon…
- Policy AnalysisIranConflicts and Conflict Resolution
Is the Turkey-Iran Rapprochement Durable in Iraq and Syria?
Aug 24, 2017Mustafa GurbuzGiven the historical nature of the Turkish-Iranian rivalry, a durable rapprochement between Turkey and Iran requires assurances about the future of the Kurds a…
- Policy AnalysisIraqSecurity and Defense
The Realities and Challenges of a New US SOFA with Iraq
Aug 15, 2017Gregory AftandilianThe United States and Iraq are currently negotiating a new Status of Forces Agreement that is contingent upon numerous domestic, regional, and American conditi…
- Policy AnalysisEgyptConflicts and Conflict Resolution
An Economic Explanation for Egypt’s Alignment in the GCC Crisis
Aug 9, 2017Imad K. HarbWith Egypt heavily reliant on Saudi Arabia and the UAE for its economic stability and survival, Cairo may not find much room for independent foreign policy dec…
- Policy AnalysisIraqDemocracy and Governance
Existential Questions: Iraq Gears up for Elections
Aug 7, 2017Charles W. DunneIraqi political forces are beginning to come together, pick fights, ingratiate themselves with potential foreign patrons, and evaluate the mood of the country …
- Policy AnalysisSaudi ArabiaDemocracy and Governance
Mohammed bin Salman’s Elevation and the Way Forward
Aug 1, 2017Imad K. HarbCrown Prince Mohammed bin Salman faces serious challenges in affirming Saudi Arabia’s domestic stability and addressing the fallout from the GCC crisis and the…
- Policy AnalysisIraqConflicts and Conflict Resolution
Improving Iraq-GCC Relations: No Time Like the Present
Jul 27, 2017Charles W. DunneIraq’ reintegration into the Arab world, particularly in terms of improving its relations with its Gulf neighbors, will support its stability as well as ensure…
- Policy AnalysisQatarConflicts and Conflict Resolution
The GCC Crisis: Media, Hacks, and the Emergence of “Cyber Power”
Jul 25, 2017Tamara KharroubMedia tools have been employed heavily in the GCC crisis to suppress freedom of the press and expression, indicating a shift from military and soft power to a …
- Policy AnalysisIraqConflicts and Conflict Resolution
The Day after Mosul’s Liberation
Jul 25, 2017Abdulwahab Al-QassabCrafting a new social and political order after the defeat of ISIL in Mosul, and elsewhere in Iraq, is a responsibility for the Iraqis, their allies, the regio…
- Policy AnalysisQatarConflicts and Conflict Resolution
Stupendous Hubris…and Its Damage
Jul 18, 2017Imad K. HarbRevelations in the Post article stand the entire GCC crisis on a new footing, now that tangible information has been made public and confirms the Qatari govern…
- Policy AnalysisQatarConflicts and Conflict Resolution
Qatar-US Memorandum of Understanding: A Game Changer
Jul 11, 2017Imad K. HarbThe MOU is a game changer and provides a significant milestone on the road to a political solution that preserves GCC unity, stability, and prosperity.
- Policy AnalysisThe Arabian Peninsula and The GulfEducation and Development
Youth Unemployment Remains the Main Challenge in the Gulf States
Jul 11, 2017Gregory AftandilianPersistently high youth unemployment remains the chief domestic challenge facing the Gulf states. Efforts to encourage the private sector to absorb new entrant…
- Policy AnalysisIraqIdentity Politics and Sectarianization
The Independence Referendum: A Pyrrhic Victory for Barzani
Jul 10, 2017Mustafa GurbuzThe Kurdish decision to hold a referendum on independence from Iraq may bring happiness to the Kurds but will come at a heavy price for the Kurdish leadership.
- Policy AnalysisThe Arabian Peninsula and The GulfConflicts and Conflict Resolution
Current Competing Dynamics in the GCC Region
Jul 10, 2017Abdulwahab Al-QassabThe competing strategic dynamics of Gulf and other actors complicate the current crisis and make its resolution contingent upon sometimes divergent interests.
- Policy AnalysisQatarConflicts and Conflict Resolution
Absent Rationality in the GCC Crisis
Jul 5, 2017Imad K. HarbDevelopments since last May have shown a careless disregard on the part of the Saudi Arabia-United Arab Emirates-Bahrain entente of the basic tenets of rationa…
- Policy AnalysisIraqConflicts and Conflict Resolution
The GCC in Turmoil: Repercussions of the Gulf Crisis on Iraq-GCC Relations
Jun 27, 2017Abdulwahab Al-QassabIraq and the GCC have a long history of cooperation as well as enmity. How has the relationship between Iraq and GCC nations developed and what is the impact o…
- Policy AnalysisThe Arabian Peninsula and The GulfConflicts and Conflict Resolution
The Yemen Conflict and Its Elusive Political Solution
Jun 26, 2017Gregory AftandilianOvershadowed by the conflict in Syria, Yemen continues to suffer from an internal civil war, a regional proxy war, and a grave humanitarian crisis. Unfortunate…
- Policy AnalysisQatarConflicts and Conflict Resolution
Saudi, UAE Demands to End Qatar Crisis: Commands, Diktats, and Ultimatums
Jun 23, 2017Joe Macaron Radwan Ziadeh Yousef Munayyer Tamara Kharroub Abdulwahab Al-Qassab Marcus Montgomery Imad K. Harb Mustafa GurbuzThe Saudi-led coalition presented Qatar a list of 13 demands to end the crisis. Analysts at Arab Center Washington DC provide an assessment and analysis of thi…
- Policy AnalysisThe Arabian Peninsula and The GulfSecurity and Defense
Foreign Policy Aspects of US Weapons Sales in the Gulf: What Does the United States Get Out of It?
Jun 22, 2017David B. Des RochesUS government policy in the Arabian Peninsula is often maddeningly inconsistent to outside— and inside—observers. A republic such as the United States, which …
- Policy AnalysisThe Arabian Peninsula and The GulfEnergy and Economics
Impact of the GCC Crisis on Global Energy Markets
Jun 21, 2017Joe MacaronWhile the diplomatic row among GCC countries had no immediate impact on energy trade, the uncertainty and longevity of the crisis might have long term reverber…
- Policy AnalysisThe Arabian Peninsula and The GulfThe GCC
President Trump Failed His Gulf Test
Jun 15, 2017Imad K. HarbThe United States must show a full-fledged commitment to GCC unity and refrain from appearing to side with some of the council’s members against others.
- Policy AnalysisQatarRegional Relations and Geopolitics
What’s at Stake for the United States in the GCC Crisis?
Jun 8, 2017Joe MacaronA lot is at stake for US national security in the Gulf, including the possibility of living with a divided GCC, the potential expansion of Iranian influence, a…
- Policy AnalysisQatarConflicts and Conflict Resolution
Why Qatar? Explaining Contentious Issues
Jun 6, 2017Imad K. HarbWhat should concern all members of the GCC today is working together not only to simply iron out differences but to provide an agenda for successful collective…
- Policy AnalysisEgyptConflicts and Conflict Resolution
Egyptian-Saudi Relations: Managing a Difficult Marriage
Jun 6, 2017Gregory AftandilianSaudi Arabia and Egypt need each other at this uncertain time and this inter-dependence keeps them together in a symbiotic relationship despite occasional stra…
- Policy AnalysisLevantConflicts and Conflict Resolution
The Dangers of Arab Normalization with Israel
Jun 1, 2017Dana El KurdArab normalization with Israel is a shortsighted policy on the part of governments, organizations, and individuals. Such a policy poses a risk to both the Pale…
- Policy AnalysisIranConflicts and Conflict Resolution
A US-Iran Race to Control the Damascus-Baghdad Highway
May 31, 2017Joe MacaronSecuring the Damascus-Baghdad highway and deterring Iran’s regional activities might lead to a direct US involvement in the Syrian war.
- Policy AnalysisLevantJustice, Equality, and Human Rights
Gaping Holes in Trump’s Well-Received Speech
May 26, 2017Imad K. HarbPresident Trump’s speech on better relations with Muslims exposed flaws and gaping holes the Administration will have to correct if it wants to advance its int…
- Policy AnalysisLevantReligion and Politics
Trump’s Riyadh Speech: Same Intolerance, Different Packaging, No Strategy
May 24, 2017Tamara KharroubTrump’s speech in Saudi Arabia received praise and acclaim but it is hard to see if the president has indeed changed his opinion about Islam and Muslims.
- Policy AnalysisIraqIdentity Politics and Sectarianization
Iraq Beyond the Islamic State
May 17, 2017Charles W. DunneAfter the defeat of ISIL and the reconquest of Mosul, how will Iraq’s government address the lingering issues of national identity, minorities, and Kurdish asp…
- Policy AnalysisSaudi ArabiaConflicts and Conflict Resolution
Cautionary Notes to the GCC about Trump’s Visit
May 15, 2017Imad K. HarbPresident Trump’s erratic behavior and lack of knowledge and his administration’s institutional problems require great caution from GCC leaders when he visits …
- Policy AnalysisIranDemocracy and Governance
Challenges Facing Iran’s Presidential Contenders
May 9, 2017Imad K. HarbIran’s presidential candidates are acutely aware that if elected, they would have to hew to the wishes and ultimate desires of the Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei.
- Policy AnalysisLevantConflicts and Conflict Resolution
The Middle East in Trump’s First 100 Days in Office
May 3, 2017Joe MacaronProjecting the image of political stability and steadiness in Washington is paramount for US policy in the Middle East. There is no room for second-guessing th…
- Policy AnalysisIranConflicts and Conflict Resolution
Trump Ponders Renewing America’s Longest War in Afghanistan
Apr 26, 2017Joe MacaronThe Pentagon has in recent weeks flexed its muscles in Afghanistan but the US continues to navigate a difficult environment in that country as the Taliban rema…
- Policy AnalysisLevantDemocracy and Governance
The Quandary of Bad Governance in the Arab World
Apr 24, 2017Imad K. HarbPolling in the Arab world shows that Arabs in general have little confidence in their civilian institutions and believe that their governments are not doing en…
- Policy AnalysisIranConflicts and Conflict Resolution
Next Challenge for Trump: The Islamic Republic of Iran
Apr 24, 2017Charles W. DunneAs the new administration of President Donald J. Trump struggles to find its foreign policy footing, with early tests emerging in the Middle East, Asia, Europe…
- Policy AnalysisIranConflicts and Conflict Resolution
Deterring Iran in Yemen: Will the United States Join the Hodeida Operation?
Apr 19, 2017Joe MacaronThe United States debates whether it wants to assist in evicting the Houthis out of Yemen's Hodeida.
- Policy AnalysisLevantIdentity Politics and Sectarianization
Perceptions of ISIL in the Arab World
Apr 14, 2017Radwan ZiadehArab autocrats can no longer argue that Arabs are satisfied with authoritarian rule. New social movements have emerged after the Arab Spring advocating for hum…
- Policy AnalysisLevantDemocracy and Governance
The Trump Administration’s Complicated Middle East Map
Apr 12, 2017Charles W. DunneAs the 2016 US presidential campaign wound its way through a long string of primaries, fundraisers, and an almost unimaginable marathon of candidate debates, d…
- Policy AnalysisLevantConflicts and Conflict Resolution
The Outsider Diplomat: Tillerson Strives to Define his Role
Apr 6, 2017Joe MacaronAfter two months in office, Tillerson is gradually coping in his new job; his success or failure will indeed have a significant impact on US foreign policy in …
- Policy AnalysisThe Arabian Peninsula and The GulfSecurity and Defense
The US Military Posture in the Gulf: Future Possibilities
Apr 4, 2017Imad K. HarbSince former President Jimmy Carter announced the establishment of the Rapid Deployment Joint Task Force in the Middle East in 1980—which later became Central …
- Policy AnalysisIranConflicts and Conflict Resolution
Genocide in Mosul: The Repercussions of Targeting Civilians
Apr 4, 2017Abdulwahab Al-QassabThere have been widespread allegations that the destruction of Mosul, the major Sunni Iraqi city after Baghdad, is the aim of the Iranian-backed Shiite militia…
- Policy AnalysisIraqReligion and Politics
Why Is the Battle against ISIL not Going Well?
Mar 28, 2017Radwan ZiadehOn March 22nd, the foreign ministers of the Global Coalition to defeat the Islamic State in Iraq and the Levant (ISIL) concluded their meeting in Washington, D…
- Policy AnalysisIranDemocracy and Governance
Syria Peace Talks in Geneva: A Road to Nowhere
Mar 27, 2017Radwan ZiadehOn March 3, 2017, the United Nations’ Special Envoy for Syria, Staffan de Mistura, concluded the last round of Syria peace negotiations in Geneva by saying tha…
- Policy AnalysisLevantJustice, Equality, and Human Rights
The Difficult Tasks for the Arab League
Mar 22, 2017Imad K. HarbAs the Arab League limps through its eighth decade, its problems increase in number and intensity while the Arab state system continues to be burdened with pol…
- Policy AnalysisIranConflicts and Conflict Resolution
Obstacles to President Trump’s Options on Iran
Mar 14, 2017Imad K. HarbAlmost two months into his presidency, Donald Trump has charted a clear path to tense relations between the United States and the Islamic Republic of Iran. Thi…
- Policy AnalysisIranIdentity Politics and Sectarianization
Turkey-Iran Relations: A Sectarian Future?
Mar 8, 2017Mustafa GurbuzThe Syrian war and ensuing crisis in Iraq have put Turkey and Iran in an unprecedented sectarian rivalry. Competition over Iraqi Kurdistan will be a major test…
- Policy AnalysisIraqConflicts and Conflict Resolution
Regaining Western Mosul: Consequences and Implications
Mar 2, 2017Abdulwahab Al-Qassabimg { margin: 5px; padding: 5px;}Since October 2016, the Iraqi government, supported by the US military, has waged one of its most difficult battles t…
- Policy AnalysisThe Arabian Peninsula and The GulfThe GCC
Developments in Yemen and American Strategic Calculations
Feb 8, 2017Imad K. HarbIt has been three years since Yemen’s National Dialogue Conference concluded its work to set the stage for a constitution for a six-region federated state. Thi…
- Policy AnalysisIranConflicts and Conflict Resolution
Iran and Trump’s Strategy in the Gulf Region: What’s Next?
Feb 8, 2017Abdulwahab Al-QassabIran’s recent launch of a medium range ballistic missile played to the Trump Administration’s expectations of Iranian behavior regarding strategic weaponry in …
- Policy AnalysisIranIdentity Politics and Sectarianization
General Mattis and Iraq: Motivations and Apprehensions
Feb 3, 2017Abdulwahab Al-QassabThe appointment of retired US General James Mattis as Secretary of Defense comes during cautious times for both Iraqis and Americans. The Iraqis are anticipati…
- Policy AnalysisJordanSecurity and Defense
Jordan’s King Abdallah in Washington: ISIL and Jerusalem
Feb 1, 2017Joe MacaronIn what was described as a working visit, Jordan’s King Abdullah II arrived on January 30, 2017, and became the first Arab leader to come to Washington since t…
- Policy AnalysisLevantIdentity Politics and Sectarianization
A World Between bin Laden and Breivik: Supremacist Ideologies Shaping the 21st Century
Jan 26, 2017Yousef MunayyerFrom Austria, Hungary, Poland, Switzerland, and elsewhere on the European continent, right-wing political parties are on the rise. Nationalism, protectionism, …
- Policy AnalysisIraqDemocracy and Governance
Iraqi Kurdistan’s Bid for Independence: Challenges and Prospects
Jan 26, 2017Mustafa GurbuzMasoud Barzani, the leader of the Kurdistan Regional Government (KRG) in Iraqi Kurdistan, has expressed his expectation for “a big change” in US policy under P…
- Policy AnalysisIraqUS Foreign Policy
Syria and Iraq in the Age of Trump: Challenges to American Interests
Jan 25, 2017Imad K. HarbNow that the Trump Administration has taken over the reins of American diplomatic and military power, questions arise about how it intends to preserve America’…
- Policy AnalysisLebanonDemocracy and Governance
Aoun in Riyadh: A Test for Lebanon’s Foreign Policy
Jan 25, 2017Joe MacaronIn November 2014, General Michel Aoun told the Lebanese daily newspaper, As-Safir, that the late Saudi foreign minister Saud al-Faisal was behind a veto to ele…
- Policy AnalysisOmanThe GCC
Oman’s Needed Adjustment During the Trump Presidency
Jan 18, 2017Imad K. HarbThe Sultanate of Oman has arguably always been an outlier regarding unified Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) action since the organization’s establishment in 198…
- Policy AnalysisIraqIdentity Politics and Sectarianization
Turkish-Iraqi Relations: Old Trends and Future Possibilities
Jan 17, 2017Abdulwahab Al-QassabRelations between Iraq and Turkey have been cordial and cautious since Iraq became independent of Ottoman suzerainty after WWI, when British forces invaded and…
- Policy AnalysisLevantUS Foreign Policy
Washington Rebalancing Away from the Middle East? Realities and Difficulties
Jan 9, 2017Imad K. HarbIn a speech to the Australian parliament in November 2011, President Barack Obama declared that the Asia-Pacific region had become a “top priority” in US secur…
- Policy AnalysisIranIdentity Politics and Sectarianization
Rafsanjani’s Death and Its Impact on Iran’s Political Bazaar
Jan 9, 2017Imad K. HarbThe death of former Iranian President Ali Akbar Hashemi Rafsanjani comes at a critical time in the Islamic Republic’s political history. As one of the founders…