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- Policy AnalysisLebanonIdentity Politics and Sectarianization
The Threat of Renewed Sectarian Violence in Lebanon
Sep 5, 2023Patricia KaramTwo people were killed on August 9 in the village of Kahaleh in central Lebanon, in one of the deadliest shootouts since the bloody 2021 clashes in the Tayoune…
- Policy AnalysisLebanonMigrants, Refugees, and IDPs
The Plight and Politics of Syrian Refugees in Lebanon
Aug 8, 2023Patricia KaramWhen Syria’s regime was readmitted into the Arab League and its president, Bashar al Assad, rehabilitated after years of ostracism for his brutal crackdown on …
- Policy AnalysisLebanonDemocracy and Governance
The Continuation of Lebanon’s Presidential Debacle
Jun 21, 2023Patricia KaramIt should come as no surprise to Lebanese citizens or the international community that the country remains without a president after more than 7 months and 12 …
- Policy AnalysisThe Arab WorldUS Foreign Policy
US Middle East Policy: The Trump-Biden Doctrine in Action
Mar 22, 2023Charles W. DunneAll US presidents, it seems, need their own foreign policy “doctrine.” President James Monroe famously started the trend in 1823, and many others—Truman, Eisen…
- Policy AnalysisIranIdentity Politics and Sectarianization
Lebanon and Syria and the Saudi-Iran Detente
Mar 21, 2023Imad K. HarbThe recent China-brokered agreement between Saudi Arabia and the Islamic Republic of Iran is expected to have a de-escalating effect on many issues in the Midd…
- Policy AnalysisLebanonDemocracy and Governance
A New Model for Presidential Elections in Lebanon
Mar 9, 2023Patricia KaramIt has been four months since former Lebanese President Michel Aoun left office in October 2022, after a presidential term marred by a series of catastrophic e…
- Policy AnalysisLebanonDemocracy and Governance
Lebanon’s New Opposition MPs Must Work Together for Political Change
Feb 14, 2023Patricia KaramAlthough the October 2019 protests in Lebanon rallied every sector, class, and gender in a moment of enthusiasm with the expectation of revolutionary change, t…
- Policy AnalysisLebanonIdentity Politics and Sectarianization
Beirut Port Explosion: A “Judicial Coup” to Bury the Investigation?
Feb 9, 2023Halim ShebayaThere is broad consensus in Lebanon regarding the need to reform the country’s judiciary and to work toward enhancing its independence, as stipulated by both t…
- Policy AnalysisLebanonDemocracy and Governance
Lebanon’s Politicians Are Incapable of Productive Dialogue
Jan 12, 2023Halim ShebayaLebanon has now entered the fourth year of its devastating economic crisis and collapse, with no end in sight and no hint regarding the possible launch of a re…
- Policy AnalysisLebanonDemocracy and Governance
Lebanon Faces a Prolonged Presidential Vacuum
Nov 29, 2022Imad K. HarbLebanon has experienced a long presidential vacuum three times in its history: from September 1988 to November 1989, from November 2007 to May 2008, and from M…
- Policy AnalysisLebanonEnergy and Economics
Lebanon Will Not Benefit from Its Maritime Agreement with Israel
Oct 31, 2022Imad K. HarbAfter ten years of on-again, off-again negotiations, Lebanon and Israel have finally reached what leaders in both countries consider an acceptable deal to dema…
- Policy AnalysisSyriaGlobal Health and Health Policy
The Captagon Problem in Saudi Arabia and Other Gulf States
Sep 22, 2022Gregory AftandilianOver the past decade, the amphetamine fenethylline, widely known by the brand name Captagon, has increasingly become the drug of choice among the youth in Gulf…
- Policy AnalysisLebanonEnergy and Economics
Lebanon Struggles to Pick up the Pieces After the Beirut Port Explosion
Sep 9, 2022Yara M. AsiLebanon’s independence in 1943 formally ended a 23-year French mandate backed by the League of Nations, a period that saw the consolidation of the country’s cu…
- Policy AnalysisLebanonConflicts and Conflict Resolution
An Update on the Lebanon-Israel Border Dispute
Sep 7, 2022Imad K. HarbAs the summer comes to a close, indirect negotiations to demarcate the maritime border between Lebanon and Israel continue apace. Although US mediator Amos Hoc…
- Policy AnalysisLebanonDemocracy and Governance
Lebanon’s Upcoming Presidential Race Is Riddled with Uncertainty
Jul 21, 2022Nabeel A. KhouryAmid political chaos, economic collapse, a dearth of public services, and shortages of basic foods and medications, Lebanon is nonetheless slated to hold anoth…
- Policy AnalysisLebanonConflicts and Conflict Resolution
Little to Show After Two Years of Tense Lebanese-Israeli Maritime Border Negotiations
Jul 8, 2022Laury HaytayanLebanon and Israel have frequently been at odds during their nearly two years of negotiations over the two countries’ Mediterranean maritime border, with diffi…
- Policy AnalysisIraqProtests and Activism
The Political Transformation of Protest Movements in Iraq and Lebanon
Jun 24, 2022Zeidon AlkinaniDespite the limited achievements of Iraq and Lebanon's recently-established protest movements compared to their stated objectives, the movements’ small gains m…
- Policy AnalysisLebanonDemocracy and Governance
A Preliminary Reading into Lebanon’s Parliamentary Elections
May 18, 2022Halim ShebayaLebanon’s parliamentary elections, held on May 15, 2022, were the first chance to understand where Lebanese voters stand on a number of important issues since …
- ViewpointLebanonDemocracy and Governance
Lebanon’s Voters Would Do Well to Support the Forces of Change
May 10, 2022Imad K. HarbOn May 15, resident Lebanese go to the polls to elect a new 128-member parliament to replace the one elected four years ago. Given the right to vote in 2018, e…
- Policy AnalysisIranIdentity Politics and Sectarianization
Hezbollah Mirrors a Weak State and a Turbulent Region
Apr 13, 2022Nabeel A. KhouryIn the eyes of an observant analyst, “While it is customary to characterize Hezbollah as a ‘state within a state,’ it is more accurate now to define it as a ‘s…
- Policy AnalysisLebanonEducation and Development
The Need for an International Development Fund for Lebanon
Jan 6, 2022Nabeel A. KhouryThe International Monetary Fund (IMF), World Bank (WB), European Union (EU), France, and the United States are all trying to help Lebanon out of the economic a…
- Policy AnalysisLebanonDemocracy and Governance
Politics, Geopolitical Conditions Pushing Lebanon into a Death Spiral
Dec 22, 2021Imad K. HarbConditions in Lebanon today betray a slide toward the total failure of state institutions amid a precipitous downturn of the country’s economic and social indi…
- Policy AnalysisLebanonIdentity Politics and Sectarianization
Saudi Arabia’s Third “Shock and Awe” Move in Lebanon
Nov 9, 2021Joe MacaronOn October 29th, Riyadh cut diplomatic ties with Beirut and suspended Lebanon’s imports into Saudi Arabia. These actions were aimed to force the resignation of…
- Policy AnalysisLebanonIdentity Politics and Sectarianization
Beirut Port Explosion: The Investigation That Will Shape Lebanon’s Future
Oct 27, 2021Halim ShebayaFor a country that is notorious for both a legacy of violence and a culture of impunity surrounding that violence, it is no surprise that the ongoing investiga…
- ViewpointLebanonIdentity Politics and Sectarianization
Lebanon Courts Civil War, Again
Oct 14, 2021Imad K. HarbOnce again, Lebanon teeters on the abyss of a civil war, this time over conflicts related to the investigation into the disastrous August 4, 2020 explosion at …
- Policy AnalysisLebanonDemocracy and Governance
Foreign Influence in Lebanon and the Third Miqati Premiership
Oct 13, 2021Joe MacaronFor the third time in 16 years, Prime Minister Najib Miqati comes to office as a consensus candidate in a country with deep divisions within the Lebanese polit…
- ViewpointLebanonDemocracy and Governance
No Rest for the Weary: Lebanon’s Miqati Must Hit the Ground Running
Sep 10, 2021Imad K. HarbNajib Miqati, the billionaire tasked over a year ago with forming the Lebanese government, has finally finished putting it together, but not before President M…
- Policy AnalysisIranDemocracy and Governance
Lebanon’s Energy Crisis Fuels US-Iran Tensions
Aug 25, 2021Joe MacaronIn the midst of an economic collapse and an energy crisis, Lebanon has found itself in a tug of war between the United States and Iran. On August 19, Hezbollah…
- ViewpointLebanonConflicts and Conflict Resolution
Hezbollah Is Not Interested in a War with Israel
Aug 11, 2021Imad K. HarbAs Lebanon reels from seemingly unsolvable political, economic, social, and security crises, an exchange of rocket and artillery fire on August 6th between Hez…
- ViewpointLebanonIdentity Politics and Sectarianization
A Year after the Beirut Explosion, a Dreaded Civil War in Lebanon
Aug 3, 2021Imad K. HarbEvents over the last few days in Lebanon portended a serious escalation in sectarian tensions and a possible widespread resort to arms that could quickly lead …
- Research PaperLebanonIdentity Politics and Sectarianization
Youth in Lebanon: Policy Narratives, Attitudes, and Forms of Mobilization
Jun 17, 2021Mona HarbIntroductionAs Lebanon is undergoing one of the worst economic and financial collapses in the world, one that was caused by the deliberate inaction1 of its rul…
- Policy AnalysisLebanonIdentity Politics and Sectarianization
Hezbollah in Moscow: Russia Flexes Its Diplomatic Muscles
Apr 14, 2021Joe MacaronIn a medium-sized van with no bodyguards, on a rainy March 15, 2021, a Hezbollah delegation quietly walked into the Russian Foreign Ministry building in Moscow…
- Policy AnalysisLebanonDemocracy and Governance
Lebanon Faces a Civil War, a Prospect of Its Own Making
Mar 23, 2021Imad K. HarbThe socioeconomic and political crises gripping Lebanon today are unprecedented in the country’s 100-year history, one that has witnessed intercommunal unrest …
- Policy AnalysisLebanonDemocracy and Governance
No Light at the End of Lebanon’s Long and Dark Tunnel
Mar 3, 2021Joe MacaronBy all accounts, Lebanon is a desperate case. The severe fiscal crises portend an extended economic depression ahead. The country has been in political paralys…
- ViewpointLebanonIdentity Politics and Sectarianization
The Assassination of Lebanon’s Lokman Slim
Feb 4, 2021Imad K. HarbAssassination reared its ugly head once again in Lebanon when unknown assailants killed political analyst and activist Lokman Slim in southern Lebanon in the e…
- Policy AnalysisLebanonDemocracy and Governance
Lebanon Risks Becoming Irrelevant
Nov 11, 2020Imad K. HarbFor the third time in the span of a year, Lebanese politicians are trying to go back to the proverbial drawing board. On October 22nd, President Michel Aoun ap…
- Policy AnalysisLebanonConflicts and Conflict Resolution
Prospects of US Mediation in the Lebanon-Israel Border Talks
Oct 14, 2020Joe MacaronOn October 14, Lebanon and Israel started the long-awaited US-mediated talks to demarcate their maritime borders under the supervision of the United Nations. T…
- Policy AnalysisLebanonRegional Relations and Geopolitics
The French Initiative in Lebanon: Endgame and Challenges
Sep 16, 2020Joe MacaronFrench President Emmanuel Macron has been leading a charm offensive in Lebanon since the August 4th Beirut explosion as Paris seeks to reinvigorate its role in…
- ViewpointLebanonDemocracy and Governance
Lebanon Chooses a Prime Minister, Thwarting the Protesters Again
Aug 31, 2020Imad K. HarbImad K. Harb writes that Lebanon’s new and largely unknown prime minister-designate, Mustafa Adib, is relatively inexperienced in politics. Nevertheless, his c…
- Policy AnalysisIranRegional Relations and Geopolitics
After the Beirut Blast: Hezbollah and Iran Walk a Tricky Line
Aug 26, 2020Daniel BrumbergDaniel Brumberg argues that Hezbollah and Iran are vested in preserving the current political system in Lebanon whose confessional institutions enable the part…
- Policy AnalysisLebanonUS Foreign Policy
How Can the United States Best Help Lebanon?
Aug 25, 2020Charles W. DunneWith Lebanon in crisis and the United States’ desire to help, Charles W. Dunne writes that Washington’s focus on sidelining Hezbollah and Iran should not under…
- Policy AnalysisLebanonDemocracy and Governance
The Beirut Explosion Will Have a Lasting Impact on Lebanon
Aug 14, 2020Joe MacaronJoe Macaron argues that the Beirut explosion and its repercussions will have a profound impact on Lebanon’s future, whatever political scenario emerges followi…
- ViewpointLebanonDemocracy and Governance
The Hezbollah-Aoun Political Process Has Failed in Lebanon
Aug 11, 2020Imad K. HarbImad K. Harb posits that the resignation of the Lebanese government exposes the failure of the Hezbollah-Aoun political process but opens an opportunity for th…
- ViewpointLebanonDemocracy and Governance
Lebanon: A Failed State Explodes
Aug 6, 2020Imad K. HarbImad K. Harb contends that the failing Lebanese state will only begin to restore its legitimacy when the country’s political elites either step down or alter t…
- Policy AnalysisLebanonRegional Relations and Geopolitics
Lebanon’s Other Problem: Neutrality in Regional Affairs
Aug 3, 2020Imad K. HarbExamining Lebanon’s traditional neutrality in regional affairs, Imad K. Harb writes that Hezbollah’s push to follow Iran’s policies is placing the country in a…
- Policy AnalysisLebanonDemocracy and Governance
Hezbollah Cannot Solve Lebanon’s Worsening Conditions
Jun 10, 2020Imad K. HarbImad K. Harb contends that Hezbollah has not succeeded in helping to repair Lebanon's domestic political and economic problems, has made the country hostage to…
- Policy AnalysisLebanonDemocracy and Governance
The Fakhoury Fiasco and US-Lebanese Relations
Apr 13, 2020Joe MacaronThe unconventional release of Lebanese-American Amer Fakhoury highlights the extent of Washington’s leverage in Beirut and raises questions about the status of…
- Policy AnalysisLebanonDemocracy and Governance
Lebanon’s Imminent Collapse: How Can It Be Prevented?
Mar 3, 2020Imad K. HarbThe dissolution of confessional politics in Lebanon and the political coalescence of the street opposition to negotiate for social change are key to addressing…
- Policy AnalysisIranDemocracy and Governance
US, Iran Prolong Détente in Lebanon with a Status Quo Cabinet
Jan 29, 2020Joe MacaronJoe Macaron contends that the new Lebanese government of Hassan Diab is a continuation of the old oligarchic status quo and appears to prolong the US-Iran déte…
- Policy AnalysisIranRegional Relations and Geopolitics
The United States and Iran Readjust to New Realities in Iraq and Lebanon
Dec 18, 2019Joe MacaronAfter 15 years of rivalry in Iraq and Lebanon, the United States and Iran are adjusting their policies based on a new reality of popular uprisings that challen…
- Policy AnalysisLebanonProtests and Activism
The Lebanese Uprising: No End in Sight for the Current Impasse
Nov 20, 2019Joe MacaronJoe Macaron explains the different factors of the current impasse between the Lebanese ruling political class and the protesters, seeing no end in sight for th…
- Policy AnalysisLebanonIdentity Politics and Sectarianization
The Battle to Defeat Confessional Politics in Lebanon and Beyond
Nov 11, 2019Daniel BrumbergDaniel Brumberg writes that despite demands for radical change, no force or group inside or outside Lebanon can predict what will happen if the country tries t…
- Policy AnalysisLebanonDemocracy and Governance
The Catch-22 of Lebanese Reform
Nov 5, 2019Nabeel A. KhouryNabeel Khoury discusses the Lebanese leadership’s catch-22 dilemma resulting from the influence of entrenched parties and their militias as they confront the l…
- Policy AnalysisLebanonDemocracy and Governance
The Lebanon Uprising: Causes and Ramifications
Oct 24, 2019Arab Center for Research and Policy Studies (ACRPS)Lebanon’s protests have been unique and inclusive and are united by a wish to topple the ruling political class and abandon the system of sectarian power-shari…
- Policy AnalysisLebanonDemocracy and Governance
Radical Reform or Total Chaos for Lebanon?
Oct 22, 2019Nabeel A. KhouryNabeel Khouri argues that it is clear that radical reform in Lebanon is what stands between a safe and gradual transition to an accountable government, on the …
- ViewpointLebanonDemocracy and Governance
Lebanon’s Protests Cannot Be Ignored
Oct 18, 2019Imad K. HarbImad K. Harb writes that Lebanon’s current protests are a reminder that the Arab Spring is alive and well and that Lebanese politicians have no choice but to h…
- Policy AnalysisLebanonConflicts and Conflict Resolution
Assessing the Latest Conflagrations between Israel and Hezbollah
Sep 11, 2019Joe MacaronThe latest conflagrations between Israel and Hezbollah were an attempt to dictate new rules of engagement. Nevertheless, both sides appear to be committed to t…
- Policy AnalysisIranIdentity Politics and Sectarianization
Trump’s Sanctions on Hezbollah Threaten Lebanon’s Stability
Jul 30, 2019Nabeel A. KhouryCurrent conditions in the Middle East and American sanctions against Hezbollah could upset the delicate balance of power in Lebanon and potentially lead to an …
- Policy AnalysisIranIdentity Politics and Sectarianization
The Symbolism behind the Latest US Sanctions against Hezbollah
Jul 17, 2019Joe MacaronThe latest US sanctions against Hezbollah--and their impact on domestic Lebanese politics--are largely symbolic. In reality, the Trump Administration may have …
- Policy AnalysisIranInternational Law
On the Lebanese-Israeli Border, US and Iran Are Negotiating
Jun 5, 2019Joe MacaronA breakthrough in Beirut is helping American mediation in the land and maritime border dispute between Lebanon and Israel, but many obstacles still prevent a q…
- Policy AnalysisLebanonDemocracy and Governance
The Trickiness of Syria’s Return to the Arab League
Mar 29, 2019Imad K. HarbIt is important for Arab states to continue to withhold Syria’s membership until Damascus agrees to a political process that leads to a transition from Assad’s…
- Policy AnalysisLebanonDemocracy and Governance
Syria’s Demographic Changes Buttress Assad’s Authoritarianism
Mar 1, 2019Radwan ZiadehThe Syrian regime violated international prohibitions on the conduct of war by forcing millions of people to flee their homes in order to spur demographic chan…
- Policy AnalysisLebanonIdentity Politics and Sectarianization
Lebanon’s New Government: No Need for Washington to Panic
Feb 6, 2019Joe MacaronLebanon’s new cabinet is not that different from the previous one. An American overreaction to Hezbollah’s role in it is likely to strengthen the party’s hold.
- Policy AnalysisLebanonEnergy and Economics
The Eastern Mediterranean Gas Forum Reinforces Current Regional Dynamics
Jan 25, 2019Joe MacaronThe recently announced Eastern Mediterranean Gas Forum is not likely to aid cooperation or economic integration because the policies of its member states mirro…
- Policy AnalysisLebanonDemocracy and Governance
The Arab Rehabilitation of the Assad Regime
Jan 16, 2019Radwan ZiadehAssad will be able to regain his political legitimacy after winning his battle militarily only if he rehabilitates his regime’s standing in the Arab world.
- Policy AnalysisLebanonDemocracy and Governance
Cabinet Stalemate in Lebanon May Be Delaying a Political Confrontation
Sep 24, 2018Joe MacaronFour months after Lebanese Prime Minister Saad Hariri was designated to lead a national unity government on May 24, there appears to be no end in sight for the…
- Policy AnalysisJordanMigrants, Refugees, and IDPs
Syrian Refugees in Jordan and Lebanon: The Politics of their Return
Jun 28, 2018Joe MacaronOverwhelmed by their own economic woes, Jordan and Lebanon are employing different tactics to achieve the same objective: to secure the return of Syrian refuge…
- ViewpointLebanonIdentity Politics and Sectarianization
Lebanon’s Elections Provide No Serious Change
May 10, 2018Imad K. HarbLebanon has just finished a feverish election campaign for its 128-seat Chamber of Deputies. This round followed a nine-year period in which this basic democra…
- Policy AnalysisLebanonDemocracy and Governance
Lebanon’s Elections to Rearrange the Country’s Political Landscape
May 3, 2018Joe MacaronFor the first time since 2009, Lebanese will elect a new parliament on May 6, a decisive election that will redraw the representation of powers of the ruling c…
- Policy AnalysisLebanonDemocracy and Governance
Where Is Syria Headed?
Apr 3, 2018Radwan ZiadehThe scenarios for Syria’s future after the fall of Eastern Ghouta now look very different from those drawn in 2012 or 2013, which depicted a peaceful political…
- Policy AnalysisLebanonEnergy and Economics
A Saudi Comeback to Lebanese Politics?
Mar 14, 2018Joe MacaronNearly 100 days after his mysterious “captivity” in the Saudi capital, Lebanese Prime Minister Saad al-Hariri visited Riyadh again on February 28. The timing c…
- Policy AnalysisLebanonConflicts and Conflict Resolution
Like Quicksand, Many Issues Threaten to Engulf Lebanon
Feb 13, 2018Imad K. HarbAs it approaches the highly anticipated round of legislative elections on May 6, Lebanon finds itself bereft of a cohesive political center that can withstand …
- Policy AnalysisLebanonDemocracy and Governance
US Curbs Saudi Arabia’s Surge in Lebanon
Nov 14, 2017Joe MacaronClear statements from the White House and the Department of State appear to have curbed the Saudi surge in Beirut and toned down Riyadh’s rhetoric against the …
- Policy AnalysisLebanonDemocracy and Governance
Will US, Saudi Pressure Deter Hezbollah in Lebanon?
Oct 12, 2017Joe MacaronGiven the current status quo in Lebanon, the best American and Saudi pressure can do is to make the country’s political environment unbearable for Hezbollah.
- Policy AnalysisLebanonConflicts and Conflict Resolution
Stretched over Two Borders, Hezbollah is Making Israel Anxious
Aug 8, 2017Joe MacaronIn the long run, the risks of confrontation between Israel and Hezbollah may largely depend on how the US-Russia deal will unfold in southern Syria.
- Policy AnalysisLebanonDemocracy and Governance
Hariri Comes to Washington in the Shadow of Hezbollah’s Wars
Jul 25, 2017Joe MacaronThe measure of success for Hariri’s visit to Washington is his ability to convince US officials that the status quo is the best Lebanon can do considering the …