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  • Policy Analysis
    SyriaDemocracy and Governance

    A Fracture That Will Not Threaten the Assad Regime in Syria

    May 18, 2020Radwan Ziadeh

    Radwan Ziadeh discounts the long-term political repercussions of the Assad-Makhlouf dispute and writes that if the regime gets in serious trouble, the cousins …

  • Policy Analysis
    IraqViolent Extremism

    The US and Iraq Must Shore Up the Fight against the Islamic State

    May 8, 2020Charles W. Dunne

    Charles W. Dunne argues that the fight against the Islamic State in Iraq faces numerous setbacks, including the coronavirus, and that the upcoming US-Iraq Stra…

  • Policy Analysis
    SyriaDemocracy and Governance

    Syria’s Authoritarian Regime and COVID-19

    Apr 24, 2020Radwan Ziadeh

    Syria's delayed admission of COVID-19 cases was dictated by the regime's political calculations and its hope to use the cover of the pandemic to avoid sanction…

  • Policy Analysis
    SyriaRegional Relations and Geopolitics

    Russian-Turkish Tensions in Syria May Help Mend the US-Turkish Divide

    Mar 20, 2020Daniel Brumberg

    Daniel Brumberg studies the intricacies of Turkey's involvement in Syria and accommodation with Russia as it simultaneously hopes to enlist the assistance of t…

  • Policy Analysis
    SyriaRegional Relations and Geopolitics

    The Muted Arab Attempt to Restore Influence in Syria

    Mar 18, 2020Joe Macaron

    Will Arab countries be able to renew their influence in Syria given the ever-present inter-Arab rivalry and unfavorable geopolitical factors?

  • Policy Analysis
    SyriaRegional Relations and Geopolitics

    Complications for Turkey in Idlib

    Mar 17, 2020Mustafa Gurbuz

    Ankara’s options in Idlib are extremely limited as it must enforce moderation on the part of the extremists as well as address the refugee crisis.

  • From our Affiliates
    SyriaConflicts and Conflict Resolution

    The Moscow Summit: Will the Ceasefire Hold in Idlib?

    Mar 11, 2020Arab Center for Research and Policy Studies (ACRPS)

    The failure of previous arrangements regarding Syria suggests that the latest ceasefire agreement between Turkey and Russia may only be temporary. Read this an…

  • Policy Analysis
    IranUS Foreign Policy

    Trump, Congress Lay Out Election Year Foreign Policy Priorities

    Mar 11, 2020Marcus Montgomery

    Marcus Montgomery discusses how the Trump Administration is pressing forward with its campaign against Iran as many in Congress are trying to constrain the pre…

  • Policy Analysis
    SyriaRegional Relations and Geopolitics

    Russia Has Limits on Its Influence in the Middle East

    Mar 10, 2020Charles W. Dunne

    Charles W. Dunne argues that despite Russia’s success in Syria and stealthy gains in the Middle East since 2015, the limits on its capabilities have become inc…

  • Policy Analysis
    SyriaConflicts and Conflict Resolution

    The Idlib Developments Usher in a New Phase in Syria’s War

    Mar 6, 2020Radwan Ziadeh Imad K. Harb Marwan Kabalan Mustafa Gurbuz

    The Syrian civil war entered a new phase when Bashar al-Assad’s regime began an assault on the northwestern Idlib province, eliciting a Turkish response. ACW a…

  • Policy Analysis
    LebanonDemocracy and Governance

    Lebanon’s Imminent Collapse: How Can It Be Prevented?

    Mar 3, 2020Imad K. Harb

    The dissolution of confessional politics in Lebanon and the political coalescence of the street opposition to negotiate for social change are key to addressing…

  • Policy Analysis
    SyriaConflicts and Conflict Resolution

    The Struggle over Syria’s Idlib

    Feb 28, 2020Radwan Ziadeh

    The Syrian regime’s killing of scores of Turkish soldiers in Idlib province will aggravate Turkish-Russian relations and take the crisis in Syria in a complete…

  • From our Affiliates
    SyriaConflicts and Conflict Resolution

    Three scenarios for the battle for Idlib

    Feb 19, 2020Marwan Kabalan

    Major decisions have to be made by Turkey, Russia, and the United States in the coming weeks that may determine the next phase of the Syrian conflict.

  • Viewpoint
    SyriaEnergy and Economics

    The Collapse of the Syrian Pound May Doom the Syrian Economy

    Jan 23, 2020Radwan Ziadeh Imad K. Harb

    Syria’s most difficult battle now is how to support its national currency and fix its collapsing economy with an impoverished central bank and the absence of r…

  • Policy Analysis
    SyriaConflicts and Conflict Resolution

    Syria’s Problems Worsen While UN Efforts Fail

    Dec 4, 2019Radwan Ziadeh

    Syria’s deteriorating economic conditions and the failure of UN-sponsored discussions about a constitutional document indicate that the Syrian people will cont…

  • Policy Analysis
    SyriaRegional Relations and Geopolitics

    Russia’s Gains in Syria Could Be a Blessing in Disguise

    Nov 6, 2019Joe Macaron

    Joe Macaron argues that while Russia may fill the vacuum left by the withdrawal of American troops from the Turkish-Syrian border, it could have challenges dea…

  • Policy Analysis
    SyriaRegional Relations and Geopolitics

    The Russia-Turkey Deal for Syria Will Go Nowhere

    Nov 5, 2019Mustafa Gurbuz

    Mustafa Gurbuz analyzes the problems in implementing the initial phase of the latest Turkish-Russian agreement in Syria, concluding they indicate that the deal…

  • Viewpoint
    IraqUS Foreign Policy

    Putting al-Baghdadi’s Demise in Perspective

    Oct 30, 2019Khalil E. Jahshan

    Khalil E. Jahshan looks at the deeper meaning of the United States’ killing of IS leader Abu-Bakr al-Baghdadi and doubts if his demise will portend the end of …

  • Policy Analysis
    LevantMigrants, Refugees, and IDPs

    Trump’s Syria Decision and the Damage to US Foreign Policy

    Oct 22, 2019Charles W. Dunne

    The fallout from President Donald Trump’s abrupt decision on October 6 to order US troops to stand aside as Turkey launched a long-planned incursion into north…

  • Policy Analysis
    LevantConflicts and Conflict Resolution

    The Turkish Military Operation in Northeastern Syria: Scope, Aims and Reactions

    Oct 17, 2019Arab Center for Research and Policy Studies (ACRPS)

    Turkey seems to be in a hurry to achieve its operational goals before pressure increases to bring the operation to an end or in order to pre-empt any operation…

  • Policy Analysis
    LevantConflicts and Conflict Resolution

    How Turkey’s ‘Peace Spring’ changed the dynamics of Syria’s war

    Oct 15, 2019Marwan Kabalan

    Turkey's military action on Syria will have consequences far beyond the 'safe zone' it is trying to establish.

  • Viewpoint
    LevantConflicts and Conflict Resolution

    Trump’s Syria Decision and the Turkish Operation

    Oct 10, 2019Radwan Ziadeh

    Without American forces on the ground, Washington will not be able to realize its objectives in Syria, especially in confronting the Iran-affiliated militias t…

  • Policy Analysis
    LevantConflicts and Conflict Resolution

    Confusion in Turkey’s Regional Foreign Policy

    Oct 8, 2019Mustafa Gurbuz

    Turkish foreign policy choices in Syria, Sudan, Libya, and Somalia are plagued with contradictions that may lead to self-defeating outcomes.

  • Policy Analysis
    LevantConflicts and Conflict Resolution

    The US Decision to Disengage from the Syrian Crisis

    Sep 11, 2019Radwan Ziadeh

    With Syrian and Russian forces aggravating the situation in northern Syria, President Erdoğan needs to protect Turkish interests in Syria and himself against d…

  • Policy Analysis
    LebanonConflicts and Conflict Resolution

    Assessing the Latest Conflagrations between Israel and Hezbollah

    Sep 11, 2019Joe Macaron

    The latest conflagrations between Israel and Hezbollah were an attempt to dictate new rules of engagement. Nevertheless, both sides appear to be committed to t…

  • Policy Analysis
    IraqConflicts and Conflict Resolution

    The Safe Zone Agreement in Northern Syria Improves Turkey’s Position

    Aug 13, 2019Radwan Ziadeh Abdulwahab Al-Qassab Imad K. Harb Mustafa Gurbuz

    On August 4, Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan threatened a military operation against Kurdish forces in northeastern Syria. His declared objective was to…

  • Policy Analysis
    LevantIdentity Politics and Sectarianization

    Partition and Spheres of Influence in Syria

    Aug 5, 2019Radwan Ziadeh

    Radwan Ziadeh opines that Syria can no longer be considered a homeland for all Syrians and that its partition has become a reality. Restoring its societal make…

  • Policy Analysis
    IranRegional Relations and Geopolitics

    Hamas Plans a Comeback to Damascus: US and Regional Implications

    Jul 31, 2019Joe Macaron

    Hamas is looking to realign itself with Syria as the Trump Administration floats ideas about Palestinian-Israeli peace; however, it appears that the Syrian reg…

  • Policy Analysis
    LevantConflicts and Conflict Resolution

    Various Players Maneuver for an Uncertain Future in Syria

    Jul 24, 2019Gregory Aftandilian

    Russia, Iran, Turkey, and Israel are positioning themselves to play a role in Syria’s uncertain future now that the Assad regime is defeating the opposition in…

  • Policy Analysis
    LevantJustice, Equality, and Human Rights

    Turkey’s Nativist Turn against Syrian Refugees and Other Arabs

    Jul 23, 2019Mustafa Gurbuz

    The key drivers that fuel the recent nativist sentiment in Turkey are the worsening economy and the politicization of the refugee issue by divisive election ca…

  • Policy Analysis
    LevantConflicts and Conflict Resolution

    A US-Turkish Agreement Remains a Challenge in Northeastern Syria

    Jun 26, 2019Joe Macaron

    US officials may be rushing a deal with Turkey in northeastern Syria that could lead to a Turkish-Kurdish confrontation and stall the American withdrawal from …

  • Policy Analysis
    LevantJustice, Equality, and Human Rights

    Idlib between Regional and International Imbalances

    Jun 5, 2019Radwan Ziadeh

    Radwan Ziadeh writes that the Trump Administration must look at Syria as more than merely a humanitarian crisis and help in reaching a political transition to …

  • Policy Analysis
    AlgeriaDemocracy and Governance

    The Legacy of the Pillared Arab State

    Jun 1, 2019Daniel Brumberg

    This paper is part of ACW's fourth book, titled The Arab World Beyond Conflict.IntroductionAmong other things, politics provides a means of managing conflicts.…

  • Policy Analysis
    LevantConflicts and Conflict Resolution

    Syria for Sale: The Price of Assad’s Survival

    May 10, 2019Radwan Ziadeh

    Russia’s so-called investments in vital Syrian installations like the Tartous port and in strategic assets such as oil and gas illustrate that the country is b…

  • Policy Analysis
    LebanonDemocracy and Governance

    Avoiding Punishing Lebanon Because of Hezbollah

    Apr 16, 2019Khaldon Roukie

    The United States continues to ostracize and pressure Hezbollah in Lebanon which is inadvertently helping the party grow and become more influential in the cou…

  • Policy Analysis
    LevantJustice, Equality, and Human Rights

    The Policy of No Return: The Case of Syrian Refugees

    Apr 2, 2019Radwan Ziadeh

    The third annual conference to support Syrian refugees concluded in Brussels with $7 billion pledged but without political commitments, exposing shortcomings a…

  • Policy Analysis
    LebanonDemocracy and Governance

    The Trickiness of Syria’s Return to the Arab League

    Mar 29, 2019Imad K. Harb

    It is important for Arab states to continue to withhold Syria’s membership until Damascus agrees to a political process that leads to a transition from Assad’s…

  • Viewpoint
    LevantInternational Law

    Trump and the Occupied Syrian Golan Heights

    Mar 25, 2019Radwan Ziadeh

    Trump’s presidential proclamation officially recognizing the Golan Heights as Israeli territory will have serious implications for international law, US role i…

  • Policy Analysis
    LebanonDemocracy and Governance

    Syria’s Demographic Changes Buttress Assad’s Authoritarianism

    Mar 1, 2019Radwan Ziadeh

    The Syrian regime violated international prohibitions on the conduct of war by forcing millions of people to flee their homes in order to spur demographic chan…

  • Viewpoint
    LevantConflicts and Conflict Resolution

    The Trump Administration Is Buying Time in Syria

    Feb 26, 2019Joe Macaron

    It is no secret that Trump does not see any financial or strategic value in keeping US forces in Syria; however, his policy there has been like an aimless roll…

  • Policy Analysis
    LebanonEnergy and Economics

    The Eastern Mediterranean Gas Forum Reinforces Current Regional Dynamics

    Jan 25, 2019Joe Macaron

    The recently announced Eastern Mediterranean Gas Forum is not likely to aid cooperation or economic integration because the policies of its member states mirro…

  • Viewpoint
    LevantConflicts and Conflict Resolution

    The Manbij Attack Exposes the Vulnerabilities of US Policy in Syria

    Jan 17, 2019Joe Macaron

    The US withdrawal from Syria may encourage Turkey and Russia to fill the vacuum, but IS’s Manbij attack may persuade Trump to stay a bit longer there.

  • Policy Analysis
    LebanonDemocracy and Governance

    The Arab Rehabilitation of the Assad Regime

    Jan 16, 2019Radwan Ziadeh

    Assad will be able to regain his political legitimacy after winning his battle militarily only if he rehabilitates his regime’s standing in the Arab world.

  • Policy Analysis
    LevantConflicts and Conflict Resolution

    Deteriorating Circumstances in Syria and Yemen Overshadow US Tactical Success

    Jan 16, 2019Charles W. Dunne

    Changing circumstances in Syria and Yemen and Washington’s shifting strategies have exposed the Trump Administration’s claims of success as threadbare.

  • Policy Analysis
    IraqSecurity and Defense

    The United States and the Turkish-Kurdish Conundrum in Northern Syria

    Jan 11, 2019Mustafa Gurbuz

    Future US-Turkey relations depend on Ankara’s demands in northern Syria regarding the Kurds and how its relationship with Moscow develops.

  • Policy Analysis
    LevantUS Foreign Policy

    The Folly and Repercussions of Trump’s Decision on Syria

    Jan 2, 2019Radwan Ziadeh

    Withdrawing from Syria diminishes whatever influence the United States has cultivated there in favor of letting the Syrian regime, Russia, Turkey, and Iran cha…

  • Policy Analysis
    IranIdentity Politics and Sectarianization

    Iran’s Hardliners and Reformists and the Syria Gambit

    Dec 27, 2018Daniel Brumberg

    Iranian hardliners have tried to isolate reformists by asserting that in times of growing security threats, all political forces must unite behind the drive fo…

  • Viewpoint
    SyriaUS Foreign Policy

    Trump’s Syria Announcement Underscores US Policy Meltdown

    Dec 20, 2018Daniel Brumberg

    The withdrawal of US troops will make it easier for Moscow and Tehran to advance a political solution ensuring that Assad and his allies remain in power.

  • Policy Analysis
    SyriaIdentity Politics and Sectarianization

    Assad Begins a Three-Year Plan to Refurbish His Regime

    Dec 12, 2018Joe Macaron

    The Assad regime is consolidating itself and laying the groundwork to reap the benefits of postwar Syria and strengthen control over territories it recaptured.

  • Policy Analysis
    SyriaJustice, Equality, and Human Rights

     The Developing GCC-Damascus Rapprochement

    Nov 15, 2018Joe Macaron

    A rapprochement between GCC countries and the Syrian regime is becoming more possible and is being reinforced by recent regional developments.

  • Policy Analysis
    SyriaConflicts and Conflict Resolution

    Will the Istanbul Summit Offer Hope for Syria?

    Nov 1, 2018Joe Macaron

    The Istanbul summit on Syria was the first serious attempt in years to advance a viable Syrian political process; but obstacles remain, including American-Russ…

  • Viewpoint
    IraqRegional Relations and Geopolitics

    Russian Gains Are American Losses in the Arab World

    Oct 30, 2018Imad K. Harb

    Putin’s assessment of a receding American international influence paves the way for an even larger Russian role in the Arab world.

  • Policy Analysis
    LevantConflicts and Conflict Resolution

    Sochi Agreement on Idlib Tests Russian-Turkish Relations

    Oct 19, 2018Joe Macaron

    The irregularities in implementing the Sochi Agreement regarding Idlib will put Russian-Turkish relations to the test and may doom the Idlib ceasefire.

  • Policy Analysis
    LevantUS Foreign Policy

    The Trump Administration’s Grandstand on Idlib

    Sep 7, 2018Joe Macaron

    As Russia and the Syrian regime gear up for the Idlib offensive, the United States is giving Moscow a free hand short of using chemical weapons.

  • Policy Analysis
    LevantConflicts and Conflict Resolution

    The Battle for Idlib: Three Scenarios

    Sep 5, 2018Marwan Kabalan

    After using de-escalation zones to take over one rebel-held area after the other, Russia has its eyes now on Idlib.

  • Policy Analysis
    LevantRegional Relations and Geopolitics

    The Trump Administration’s Objectives in Syria

    Aug 28, 2018Imad K. Harb

    American officials’ latest pronouncements on Syria are intended to help insinuate some important preferences as the conflict there arguably nears its end on Ru…

  • Policy Analysis
    LevantInternational Law

    Israel Returns to Basics in Syria: “Better the devil you know”

    Aug 15, 2018Joe Macaron

    After nearly seven years of unrest next door, Israel opted to coexist with the Assad regime and to return to the stability in the occupied Golan Heights that l…

  • Policy Analysis
    LevantConflicts and Conflict Resolution

    The Ticking Time Bomb of Northern Syria

    Aug 15, 2018Mustafa Gurbuz

    The Assad regime’s coming Idlib offensive will cause serious troubles and endanger the US security structure in northern Syria.

  • Policy Analysis
    IranConflicts and Conflict Resolution

    Putin Arbitrates Iran’s Presence in Syria

    Aug 10, 2018Daniel Brumberg

    Rumors of a rocky Russian-Iranian alliance have been greatly exaggerated. Putin as arbiter in Syria will only do what serves Russia’s influence there.

  • Viewpoint
    LevantConflicts and Conflict Resolution

    The Raging—and Surprising—Battle for Southern Syria

    Jul 5, 2018Radwan Ziadeh

    The Syrian regime began its assault on the southern city of Daraa toward the end of June, assisted as elsewhere in Syria by Russian warplanes and Iran-supporte…

  • Policy Analysis
    IranConflicts and Conflict Resolution

    Iran’s Syria Predicament

    Jul 4, 2018Marwan Kabalan

    As Syria's civil war draws to a close, Iran's activity in the country is coming under increasing scrutiny. The US, Israel, and the Gulf states are all working …

  • Policy Analysis
    JordanMigrants, Refugees, and IDPs

    Syrian Refugees in Jordan and Lebanon: The Politics of their Return

    Jun 28, 2018Joe Macaron

    Overwhelmed by their own economic woes, Jordan and Lebanon are employing different tactics to achieve the same objective: to secure the return of Syrian refuge…

  • Policy Analysis
    LevantConflicts and Conflict Resolution

    Can Assad Truly Assert His Control over Syria?

    Jun 12, 2018Mustafa Gurbuz

    Despite the Assad regime’s consolidation of power, reviving the territorial integrity of Syria is a mirage. Moscow’s rise as a key power broker and the Russia-…

  • Policy Analysis
    LevantReligion and Politics

    The Damascus-Aleppo Highway and Stabilizing Northwest Syria

    Jun 7, 2018Joe Macaron

    While Russia, Turkey and Iran are stabilizing northwest Syria along the Damascus-Aleppo highway, they are also normalizing an irregular situation that could ul…

  • Viewpoint
    IranConflicts and Conflict Resolution

    A Crack in the Russian-Iranian Alliance in Syria?

    May 23, 2018Joe Macaron

    In a rare instance since the Russian intervention in Syria in September 2015, the policy differences between Moscow and Tehran have become public. This raised …

  • Viewpoint
    LevantInternational Law

    The United States Abdicates Its Responsibilities in the Middle East

    May 17, 2018Imad K. Harb

    It is impossible to see how the massacre of unarmed Palestinian protesters in Gaza or the moving of the American embassy to Jerusalem will help chart a way out…

  • Policy Analysis
    LevantUS Foreign Policy

    Has Trump Opted for a Longer US Presence in Syria?

    May 16, 2018Gregory Aftandilian

    Trump has walked back his declaration to bring US troops in Syria home “very soon” in light of pressure from advisors and allies, but he risks embroiling the U…

  • Viewpoint
    IranConflicts and Conflict Resolution

    A Dangerous Israeli-Iranian Escalation in Syria

    May 11, 2018Joe Macaron

    In the most dangerous escalation since the establishment of the Golan Heights ceasefire line in 1973, Israel and Iran exchanged fire in southwestern Syria unde…

  • Viewpoint
    EgyptConflicts and Conflict Resolution

    Deploying Arab Forces in Syria is not Advisable, nor Possible

    May 10, 2018Radwan Ziadeh

    Over the last few months, President Donald Trump has made announcements that regional states should bear more of the burden of ridding Syria of the so-called I…

  • Policy Analysis
    LevantEnergy and Economics

    Between Idealism and Realpolitik: Erdoğan’s Quest for Palestine

    Apr 26, 2018Mustafa Gurbuz

    Turkey’s active policy for Palestine enables Ankara to strengthen its ties to the Palestinian Authority and Hamas simultaneously and thus to bolster its role a…

  • Viewpoint
    LevantConflicts and Conflict Resolution

    The Kosovo Model for Syria

    Apr 17, 2018Radwan Ziadeh

    The April 13, 2018, American-British-French strike on Syria was wider in scope and effect than that of April 2017 on Shairat Air Base; both conducted as punish…

  • Policy Analysis
    LevantIdentity Politics and Sectarianization

    The Looming Threat of Kurdish-Arab Strife in Northern Syria

    Apr 9, 2018Mustafa Gurbuz

    The latest developments in northern Syria signal a clear threat of rising Arab-Kurdish tensions that could boil over if local, regional, and international play…

  • Policy Analysis
    LebanonDemocracy and Governance

    Where Is Syria Headed?

    Apr 3, 2018Radwan Ziadeh

    The scenarios for Syria’s future after the fall of Eastern Ghouta now look very different from those drawn in 2012 or 2013, which depicted a peaceful political…

  • Policy Analysis
    JordanConflicts and Conflict Resolution

    Jordan’s Four Worst-case Scenarios on Its Syrian Border

    Mar 30, 2018Joe Macaron

    Jordan faces four worst-case scenarios as the US-Russia ceasefire agreement is gradually collapsing in southwestern Syria. Amman’s options to limit the damage …

  • Policy Analysis
    IraqConflicts and Conflict Resolution

    The Many Complications of Returning Islamic State Fighters

    Mar 19, 2018Mustafa Gurbuz

    As the Islamic State (IS) transforms into a flat organization with autonomous cells around the globe, the foreign fighters returning to their home countries po…

  • Viewpoint
    LevantUS Foreign Policy

    Tillerson’s Departure: Implications for Middle East Policy

    Mar 13, 2018Imad K. Harb

    President Donald Trump’s sacking of Secretary of State Rex Tillerson has important ramifications for US policy in the Middle East, and specifically toward the …

  • Policy Analysis
    LevantSecurity and Defense

    US Syria Policy: Juggling Contradictory Interests

    Mar 13, 2018Gregory Aftandilian

    US policy in Syria, as articulated by Secretary of State Rex Tillerson, remains focused on the Islamic State, but it does little to bring about other stated go…

  • Policy Analysis
    LevantConflicts and Conflict Resolution

    Hell on Earth: The World Forsakes Syria’s Eastern Ghouta

    Feb 28, 2018Radwan Ziadeh

    The people of this district near Damascus are being exposed to relentless aerial bombing and ground attacks that have killed over 500 civilians, including many…

  • Viewpoint
    LevantConflicts and Conflict Resolution

    Eastern Ghouta: Syria’s “Hell on Earth”

    Feb 23, 2018Khalil E. Jahshan

    In recent weeks, the Assad regime and its supporters have subjected the Damascus suburb of Eastern Ghouta to one of the most violent attacks of the seven-year …

  • Policy Analysis
    IraqIdentity Politics and Sectarianization

    Is There a US Policy Toward the Kurds in Iraq and Syria?

    Feb 21, 2018Gregory Aftandilian

    Recent tensions between the United States and Turkey over US support for the Syrian Kurds have brought to the forefront the issue of US policy toward the Kurdi…

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