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  • Policy Analysis

    Chronic Insecurity in the Middle East: Causes and Consequences

    Jun 1, 2019Mehran Kamrava

    This paper is part of ACW's fourth book, titled The Arab World Beyond Conflict.Even before the discovery of oil in southwestern Iran at the start of the 20th c…

  • Policy Analysis
    Saudi ArabiaSecurity and Defense

    How a Legal Loophole is Helping Trump Sell Arms to Saudi Arabia

    May 28, 2019Marcus Montgomery

    President Trump is using tensions with Iran to bypass Congress and push through weapons sales to Saudi Arabia and United Arab Emirates

  • Policy Analysis
    IranRegional Relations and Geopolitics

    Is War Coming to the Arabian Gulf?

    May 3, 2019Imad K. Harb Daniel Brumberg Abdulwahab Al-Qassab Kristian Coates Ulrichsen

    Given current conditions and the parties’ limitations, the chance of a military confrontation with Iran is remote—although the sharp rhetoric and counter-accus…

  • Policy Analysis
    LevantDemocracy and Governance

    American Campaigning Elevates Netanyahu’s Election Chances to New Heights

    Mar 26, 2019Yousef Munayyer

    A historical look at shifting US policy positions demonstrates the significance of recognizing the Golan Heights as Israeli territory. The warm embrace and cam…

  • Policy Analysis
    EgyptSecurity and Defense

    The US-Egypt Political-Military Relationship: A Critical Assessment

    Mar 13, 2019Charles W. Dunne

    Once a pillar of American regional planning in the Middle East, Egypt’s relationship with the United States is likely to be reevaluated by the new House of Rep…

  • Policy Analysis
    IranIdentity Politics and Sectarianization

    The Iranian Revolution at 40: The Politics of Supreme Leader Succession

    Feb 26, 2019Daniel Brumberg

    As Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei advances in age, he must be careful about how his actions domestically and internationally will affect the inevitable succession…

  • Policy Analysis
    Democracy and Governance

    How Principled Is US Realism in the Middle East?

    Feb 22, 2019Charles W. Dunne

    US authority, credibility, and interests in the Middle East are paying the price for the administration's confusion and abandonment of principles in its foreig…

  • Policy Analysis
    Energy and Economics

    Trump’s Doomed Quest for a Middle East Strategic Alliance

    Feb 5, 2019Daniel Brumberg

    Trump's Middle East Strategic Alliance is doomed because not all states there agree that Iran poses the biggest threat. A larger obstacle is the president's re…

  • Policy Analysis
    IranSecurity and Defense

    Will an Anti-Iran Military Alliance Be Formed in 2019?

    Jan 23, 2019Khalil E. Jahshan Imad K. Harb Abdulwahab Al-Qassab Tamara Kharroub

    The administration’s “Arab NATO” proposal to confront Iran is unlikely to succeed because of Trump’s serious credibility deficit and disunity in the GCC.

  • Policy Analysis
    IraqSecurity and Defense

    The United States and the Turkish-Kurdish Conundrum in Northern Syria

    Jan 11, 2019Mustafa Gurbuz

    Future US-Turkey relations depend on Ankara’s demands in northern Syria regarding the Kurds and how its relationship with Moscow develops.

  • Policy Analysis
    LevantJustice, Equality, and Human Rights

    What will the Middle East look like in 2019?

    Jan 1, 2019Marwan Kabalan

    In 2019, old conflicts in the Middle East will persist and new ones might erupt.

  • Policy Analysis
    LibyaConflicts and Conflict Resolution

    Libyans Should Decide Their Own Future: An Interview with Hani Shennib

    Nov 20, 2018Imad K. Harb

    The failure to address the root causes of the Libyan conflict is the main reason why Libya has not arrived at a peaceful resolution to its ongoing troubles.

  • Policy Analysis
    Palestine/IsraelConflicts and Conflict Resolution

    Why is Netanyahu so desperate for a ceasefire with Hamas?

    Nov 20, 2018Ibrahim Fraihat

    The ceasefire in Gaza has destabilized Netanyahu's government, yet he has no other choice but to commit to it.

  • Policy Analysis
    International Law

    John Bolton vs. Bureaucratic Washington: Implications for the Middle East

    Oct 11, 2018Marcus Montgomery

    How effectively Bolton steers the NSC through the gauntlet of Washington’s bureaucracy will go a long way in determining US policy toward the Middle East and N…

  • Policy Analysis
    The Arabian Peninsula and The GulfSecurity and Defense

    US Involvement in Yemen: Changing Course Required as Disaster Worsens

    Sep 26, 2018Charles W. Dunne

    With no end in sight, no exit strategy, and little to show for its involvement so far, the US should revise its strategy soon or face mounting international an…

  • Policy Analysis
    LibyaDemocracy and Governance

    Libya Cries Out for More International Commitment

    Sep 7, 2018Imad K. Harb

    Despite the UN’s efforts to assist Libya, it remains up to the country’s leaders themselves to agree to a political settlement and begin to restore the authori…

  • Policy Analysis
    LevantSecurity and Defense

    US Defense Budget Prioritizes Securing Israel over Deterring Iran

    Aug 24, 2018Joe Macaron

    The 2019 US defense budget reveals that the Trump administration has no clear way forward for Syria or Yemen and that its commitment to Israel exceeds the US d…

  • Viewpoint
    Security and Defense

    An Arab NATO? The Folly of Trusting Trump

    Jul 31, 2018Imad K. Harb

    The Trump Administration is said to be pushing for establishing a Middle East Strategic Alliance (MESA). Discussions for the plan will be conducted during a su…

  • Policy Analysis
    IraqEnergy and Economics

    Controlling the Nasib Crossing Is a Game Changer for the Syrian Regime

    Jul 19, 2018Joe Macaron

    The imminent opening of the Nasib crossing on the Syrian-Jordanian border could revitalize commercial activities in the Levant; but challenges lie ahead, inclu…

  • Policy Analysis
    JordanSecurity and Defense

    It May Be Time to Restructure American Assistance to Jordan

    Jun 15, 2018Marcus Montgomery

    Since May 30, the Hashemite Kingdom of Jordan has seen a wave of massive, largely peaceful protests that have King Abdullah II in a bind. The current turmoil h…

  • Policy Analysis
    LevantReligion and Politics

    The Damascus-Aleppo Highway and Stabilizing Northwest Syria

    Jun 7, 2018Joe Macaron

    While Russia, Turkey and Iran are stabilizing northwest Syria along the Damascus-Aleppo highway, they are also normalizing an irregular situation that could ul…

  • Policy Analysis
    North AfricaRegional Relations and Geopolitics

    Political Calculations…from the Western Sahara to the Arabian Gulf

    Jun 4, 2018Mohammed Cherkaoui

    The timing of Morocco’s decision to sever relations with Iran and to close the Iranian embassy in Rabat “immediately” on May 1, 2018, has raised questions abou…

  • Policy Analysis
    QatarSecurity and Defense

    Measures of Stalemate in the Gcc Crisis

    Jun 1, 2018Imad K. Harb

    The current existential crisis in the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) began in May 2017 with a hacking operation of the Qatar News Agency website and the public…

  • Policy Analysis
    JordanConflicts and Conflict Resolution

    Jordan’s Four Worst-case Scenarios on Its Syrian Border

    Mar 30, 2018Joe Macaron

    Jordan faces four worst-case scenarios as the US-Russia ceasefire agreement is gradually collapsing in southwestern Syria. Amman’s options to limit the damage …

  • Policy Analysis
    IranSecurity and Defense

    Who is John Bolton? A Political Profile of the Next National Security Advisor

    Mar 23, 2018Marcus Montgomery

    With the appointment of John Bolton as national security advisor, the United States risks turning the National Security Council into an echo chamber of hyper-n…

  • Policy Analysis
    Saudi ArabiaSecurity and Defense

    Saudi Arabia, the UAE, and the Yemeni Hemorrhage

    Mar 20, 2018Imad K. Harb

    It is necessary to point out that the Saudi-led intervention in March 2015 has exacerbated human suffering and underscored the differences between Yemen’s elit…

  • Policy Analysis
    LebanonEnergy and Economics

    A Saudi Comeback to Lebanese Politics?

    Mar 14, 2018Joe Macaron

    Nearly 100 days after his mysterious “captivity” in the Saudi capital, Lebanese Prime Minister Saad al-Hariri visited Riyadh again on February 28. The timing c…

  • Policy Analysis
    LevantSecurity and Defense

    US Syria Policy: Juggling Contradictory Interests

    Mar 13, 2018Gregory Aftandilian

    US policy in Syria, as articulated by Secretary of State Rex Tillerson, remains focused on the Islamic State, but it does little to bring about other stated go…

  • Policy Analysis
    The Arabian Peninsula and The GulfSecurity and Defense

    Strategic Considerations of the UAE’s Role in Yemen

    Mar 9, 2018Abdulwahab Al-Qassab

    There are legitimate questions about whether the UAE is interested in keeping Yemen unified and sovereign under a national government recognized by the interna…

  • Policy Analysis
    LevantSecurity and Defense

    Will Trump Further Militarize the Arab World?

    Feb 28, 2018Marcus Montgomery

    Under the leadership of President Donald Trump, the Arab world may be poised for increased militarization as he pushes for military sales and it experiences nu…

  • Policy Analysis
    LevantEnergy and Economics

    Turkey’s Challenge to Arab Interests in the Horn of Africa

    Feb 22, 2018Mustafa Gurbuz

    Turkey’s policies and many activities around the Red Sea and the Horn of Africa have added complications to the already complex strategic picture of the Middle…

  • Policy Analysis
    LevantSecurity and Defense

    The War of Others on Syria’s Soil

    Feb 20, 2018Radwan Ziadeh

    The late diplomat, politician, and publisher of the influential Lebanese daily An-Nahar, Ghassan Tueni, characterized the 15-year Lebanese civil war as “a war …

  • Policy Analysis
    IranConflicts and Conflict Resolution

    Can Iran’s Minorities Be Used against the Regime?

    Feb 9, 2018Mustafa Gurbuz

    The heightened tension and antagonistic discourse between Saudi Arabia and Iran help Tehran legitimize its security policies in the country and to “alert” its …

  • Policy Analysis
    QatarSecurity and Defense

    The US-Qatar Strategic Dialogue: Messages and Implications

    Feb 8, 2018Marwan Kabalan

    The most consequential outcome of the US-Qatar strategic dialogue is the US official declaration of “readiness to work jointly with Qatar to deter and confront…

  • Policy Analysis
    IraqEnergy and Economics

    Jordanian-Iraqi Relations on the Mend, but Problems Remain

    Feb 8, 2018Gregory Aftandilian

    Economic necessities and opposition to the so-called Islamic State have brought Jordan and Iraq closer together, but Amman remains concerned about Baghdad’s li…

  • Policy Analysis
    The Arabian Peninsula and The GulfSecurity and Defense

    The Aden Battle and Yemen’s De Facto Partition

    Feb 2, 2018Joe Macaron

    It is clear from ongoing developments in the Middle East that the United States and Russia will continue to play a role that meets their own national interests…

  • Policy Analysis
    LevantSecurity and Defense

    The Battle of Afrin and the Future of the Free Syrian Army

    Feb 2, 2018Radwan Ziadeh

    Low levels of mutual confidence between Washington and Ankara have subjected the American-Turkish strategic relationship to unwarranted dangers and challenges.

  • Policy Analysis
    LevantConflicts and Conflict Resolution

    Using Its Syrian Foothold, Russia Expands in the Middle East

    Dec 14, 2017Charles W. Dunne

    Russia’s victory in Syria does not merely prop up the Assad regime but, more broadly, helps propel Moscow’s strategic interests in the wider Middle East.

  • Policy Analysis
    North AfricaConflicts and Conflict Resolution

    Emerging Security Challenges in North and West Africa

    Nov 8, 2017Mohammed Cherkaoui

    The appearance of stability in the countries of north and west Africa belies a dangerous reality of the existence of many extremist groups feeding on poor soci…

  • Policy Analysis
    EgyptIdentity Politics and Sectarianization

    Egypt’s Security Challenges in the Sinai Belie the Government’s Rhetoric

    Oct 26, 2017Gregory Aftandilian

    Clashes in the northern Sinai Peninsula that resulted in scores of deaths of Egyptian security forces have underscored the durability of the extremist insurgen…

  • Policy Analysis
    IraqConflicts and Conflict Resolution

    The Kirkuk Battle Is a Watershed Event for Iraq

    Oct 19, 2017Abdulwahab Al-Qassab

    The Iraqi central government harnessed domestic and international support to abort the Kurdish referendum for independence, in the process weakening the KRG’s …

  • Policy Analysis
    LevantMigrants, Refugees, and IDPs

    The Challenges of Turkey’s Operation in Syria’s Idlib

    Oct 19, 2017Mustafa Gurbuz

    Turkey is concerned about who controls neighboring Idlib Province in Syria but is equally interested in thwarting the Syrian Kurds’ plans for autonomy south of…

  • Policy Analysis
    IranSecurity and Defense

    The Art of (Decertifying) the Deal: Trump’s Iran Strategy and the Nuclear Agreement’s Future

    Oct 17, 2017Charles W. Dunne

    The president’s decertifying the Iran nuclear deal does not terminate US participation in the JCPOA but opens the door to such a move, roils US relations with …

  • Policy Analysis
    The Arabian Peninsula and The GulfSecurity and Defense

    The US and the GCC: A Steep Learning Curve for President Trump

    Sep 18, 2017Imad K. Harb

    In its first year in office, the Trump Administration must work on remedying its shortcomings on Gulf affairs and strive to safeguard the GCC’s unity as a stra…

  • Policy Analysis
    IraqSecurity and Defense

    The Realities and Challenges of a New US SOFA with Iraq

    Aug 15, 2017Gregory Aftandilian

    The United States and Iraq are currently negotiating a new Status of Forces Agreement that is contingent upon numerous domestic, regional, and American conditi…

  • Policy Analysis
    The Arabian Peninsula and The GulfSecurity and Defense

    Foreign Policy Aspects of US Weapons Sales in the Gulf: What Does the United States Get Out of It?

    Jun 22, 2017David B. Des Roches

    US government policy in the Arabian Peninsula is often maddeningly inconsistent to outside— and inside—observers.  A republic such as the United States, which …

  • Policy Analysis
    LevantConflicts and Conflict Resolution

    The Middle East in Trump’s First 100 Days in Office

    May 3, 2017Joe Macaron

    Projecting the image of political stability and steadiness in Washington is paramount for US policy in the Middle East. There is no room for second-guessing th…

  • Policy Analysis
    IranConflicts and Conflict Resolution

    Trump Ponders Renewing America’s Longest War in Afghanistan

    Apr 26, 2017Joe Macaron

    The Pentagon has in recent weeks flexed its muscles in Afghanistan but the US continues to navigate a difficult environment in that country as the Taliban rema…

  • Policy Analysis
    The Arabian Peninsula and The GulfSecurity and Defense

    The US Military Posture in the Gulf: Future Possibilities

    Apr 4, 2017Imad K. Harb

    Since former President Jimmy Carter announced the establishment of the Rapid Deployment Joint Task Force in the Middle East in 1980—which later became Central …

  • Research Paper
    Democracy and Governance

    The Army and Political Power in the Arab Context: Theoretical Problems

    Mar 31, 2017Azmi Bishara

    A significant question has arisen about how, over recent decades, military coups have stopped occurring in states considered to be coup countries, such as Syri…

  • Policy Analysis
    IranConflicts and Conflict Resolution

    Obstacles to President Trump’s Options on Iran

    Mar 14, 2017Imad K. Harb

    Almost two months into his presidency, Donald Trump has charted a clear path to tense relations between the United States and the Islamic Republic of Iran. Thi…

  • Policy Analysis
    International Law

    Trump’s Defense Budget Militarizes US Foreign Policy

    Mar 7, 2017Joe Macaron

    The signature blueprint of any US president is the federal budget. Donald Trump is giving us an insight into how he views the world and what resources he inten…

  • Policy Analysis
    Regional Relations and Geopolitics

    How Will Trump Run Washington’s Favorite Killing Machine?

    Mar 2, 2017Joe Macaron

    In 2016, US unmanned aerial vehicles (UAVs) dropped on average three bombs every 60 minutes in the global fight against radical extremists. Nothing defined Pre…

  • Policy Analysis
    EgyptSecurity and Defense

    Going Forward on Egyptian-American Relations

    Feb 21, 2017Imad K. Harb

    Egypt recently marked the sixth anniversary of the resignation of former President Hosni Mubarak and his handover of power to the Supreme Council of the Armed …

  • Policy Analysis
    Security and Defense

    General Flynn, We Hardly Knew You

    Feb 15, 2017Roxanne Perugino

    After serving only 24 days as President Donald Trump’s National Security Advisor, Lt. General Michael Flynn has resigned, leaving behind chaos within the Natio…

  • Policy Analysis
    Security and Defense

    “America First” Will Compromise Homeland Security and Disrupt American Soft Power

    Feb 7, 2017Mustafa Gurbuz

    The Trump Administration’s two promises—pursuing an “America first” policy and exterminating radical jihadism—require an investment in American soft power that…

  • Policy Analysis
    JordanSecurity and Defense

    Jordan’s King Abdallah in Washington: ISIL and Jerusalem

    Feb 1, 2017Joe Macaron

    In what was described as a working visit, Jordan’s King Abdullah II arrived on January 30, 2017, and became the first Arab leader to come to Washington since t…

  • Policy Analysis
    LevantConflicts and Conflict Resolution

    What is Next for Turkey after the Fall of Aleppo?

    Dec 15, 2016Mustafa Gurbuz

    After the fall of Aleppo, Turkey’s capacity to maneuver in the region will suffer tremendously. Indeed, the fall of Aleppo has increased tensions among Syrian …

  • Policy Analysis
    EgyptSecurity and Defense

    Future US-Egyptian Relations: The Old Status Quo Redux

    Oct 13, 2016Imad K. Harb

    A long time ago, there appeared to be a symbiotic relationship between the United States and Egypt. The former was a strategic benefactor that understood the i…

  • Policy Analysis
    LevantSecurity and Defense

    New US-Israeli Military Aid Package Reflects Shifts in Relationship

    Sep 15, 2016Yousef Munayyer

    On September 14, 2016 the United States and Israel signed a new 10-year Memorandum of Understanding (MOU) on military aid, which replaces a previous MOU set to…

  • Policy Analysis
    IranSecurity and Defense

    The Emergence of a New Triangular Relationship in the Middle East

    Jan 29, 2016Joe Macaron

    The implementation of the Iran nuclear deal on January 16 reinforced the emergence of a new triangular relationship in the Middle East involving the United Sta…

  • Policy Analysis
    SyriaSecurity and Defense

    Russia’s Middle East Moves and US Options

    Oct 15, 2015Yousef Munayyer

    BackgroundIn recent weeks, Russia has taken quite significant and surprising steps to deepen and strengthen its support for the Assad regime in Syria. Russia h…

  • Research Paper
    Identity Politics and Sectarianization

    Understanding Violent Extremism: The Social Psychology of Identity and Group Dynamics

    Sep 25, 2015Tamara Kharroub

    The issue of violent extremism has been the center of media and policy attention in the United States especially since 9/11. Numerous research and analysis pap…

  • Policy Analysis
    IranRegional Relations and Geopolitics

    The Iran Nuclear Deal and its Implications for the Region

    Jul 31, 2015Yousef Munayyer

    The agreement reached by the P5+1 (China, France, Germany, Russia, the UK, and the US), the EU and the Islamic Republic of Iran over the latter’s nuclear progr…