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EgyptConflicts and Conflict ResolutionWorrisome Competition in the Red Sea Subsystem
May 1, 2019Abdulwahab Al-QassabThe Red Sea subsystem involves many capable regional and international actors with competing agendas that, if not reconciled, could increase tensions and lead …
- Policy Analysis
EgyptDemocracy and GovernanceEgypt’s New Constitutional Amendments: Moving toward Totalitarianism
Apr 30, 2019Charles W. DunneEgypt's new constitutional amendments, passed overwhelmingly in a national referendum, drive the country further along the road to totalitarianism. In reality,…
- Policy Analysis
LibyaReligion and PoliticsHaftar’s Attempted Coup and Trump’s Collusion over Libya
Apr 23, 2019Imad K. HarbIt is doubtful that Haftar’s campaign against Tripoli will end Libya’s chaos; indeed, it is likely to exacerbate and extend the country’s civil war and increas…
- Policy Analysis
AlgeriaDemocracy and GovernanceNegotiating a Path Forward in Algeria
Apr 17, 2019Daniel BrumbergIn Algeria, as in Egypt, the single biggest obstacle to advancing a democratic transition is the military. The opposition has some hard choices—none are good, …
- Policy Analysis
North AfricaConflicts and Conflict ResolutionTunisia’s Fragmented and Polarized Political Landscape
Mar 28, 2019Daniel BrumbergIn the upcoming parliamentary and presidential elections in November 2019, if Tunisia’s politicians continue to battle under the umbrella of a largely feigned …
- Policy Analysis
LibyaDemocracy and GovernanceCorrecting Libya’s Imbalance
Mar 19, 2019Imad K. HarbThe international community must help Libya avoid renewed authoritarianism and political and military chaos by supporting UN efforts to hold elections and help…
- Policy Analysis
EgyptSecurity and DefenseThe US-Egypt Political-Military Relationship: A Critical Assessment
Mar 13, 2019Charles W. DunneOnce a pillar of American regional planning in the Middle East, Egypt’s relationship with the United States is likely to be reevaluated by the new House of Rep…
- Viewpoint
EgyptDemocracy and GovernanceA Pharaoh in the Making: Sisi Seeks Long-term Job Security
Feb 5, 2019Imad K. HarbMany Arab presidents have loved the chair and have worked hard to make it more like a throne. One wonders if Sisi would be audacious enough to just declare him…
- Policy Analysis
LevantUS Foreign PolicyThe Arab World in the 115th Congress: A Review
Jan 30, 2019Marcus MontgomeryThe 115th Congress was largely deferential to President Trump on policies related to the Arab world, but the 116th is likely to challenge him on important issu…
- Viewpoint
EgyptUS Foreign PolicyPompeo in Cairo: Not a Force for Good
Jan 10, 2019Imad K. HarbWith Trump as president and Pompeo as secretary of state, the United States has a very long way to become “a force for good” in the Middle East.
- Policy Analysis
LibyaConflicts and Conflict ResolutionLibyans Should Decide Their Own Future: An Interview with Hani Shennib
Nov 20, 2018Imad K. HarbThe failure to address the root causes of the Libyan conflict is the main reason why Libya has not arrived at a peaceful resolution to its ongoing troubles.
- Policy Analysis
LevantUS Domestic Politics and ElectionsThe 2018 Midterm Elections: What Do They Mean for the Middle East?
Nov 1, 2018Marcus MontgomeryPresident Trump is potentially days away from being handed a divided Congress; a Democratic-led House could challenge Republican orthodoxy over US policy regar…
- Viewpoint
IraqRegional Relations and GeopoliticsRussian Gains Are American Losses in the Arab World
Oct 30, 2018Imad K. HarbPutin’s assessment of a receding American international influence paves the way for an even larger Russian role in the Arab world.
- Research Paper
EgyptDemocracy and GovernanceRegional States and Egypt’s Democratic Transition
Oct 25, 2018Imad K. HarbQatar, Saudi Arabia, and the United Arab Emirates were the most influential external actors in Egypt’s transition to democracy and its reversal after the 2011 …
- Policy Analysis
MoroccoJustice, Equality, and Human RightsAssessing Morocco’s Human Rights Picture: Constitutional Reform May Not Be Enough
Oct 11, 2018Charles W. DunneWhile Morocco’s constitutional changes were meant to limit the powers of the absolute monarchy, the Moroccan king remains the final arbiter of the political sy…
- Policy Analysis
LevantInternational LawArab Leaders Return from New York with Little to Show
Oct 4, 2018Joe MacaronRepresentatives of Arab governments delivered their remarks at the United Nations General Assembly last week. A review of the 16 speeches shows that they focus…
- Policy Analysis
EgyptDemocracy and GovernanceFive Years after Sisi’s Coup: Soul Searching, Resistance, and Division
Sep 12, 2018Daniel BrumbergSisi is building a full autocracy in Egypt. He will not be intimidated by pushback from state-linked elites but by a genuine healing of the Islamist-secular br…
- Policy Analysis
LibyaDemocracy and GovernanceLibya Cries Out for More International Commitment
Sep 7, 2018Imad K. HarbDespite the UN’s efforts to assist Libya, it remains up to the country’s leaders themselves to agree to a political settlement and begin to restore the authori…
- Policy Analysis
LevantEducation and DevelopmentThe State of Education in the Arab World
Aug 6, 2018Ilham NasserWhen closely examining reports on the status of education in the Arab region, the main conclusions have pointed to the Arab states’ deficits in educational att…
- Policy Analysis
LevantRegional Relations and GeopoliticsMiddle East Concerns of American Strategic Planners
Jul 26, 2018Gregory AftandilianUS strategic planners involved in the Middle East have concentrated on protecting vital sea lanes and assisting partner countries against threats, but without …
- Viewpoint
EgyptDemocracy and GovernanceFive Years after Sisi’s Coup: More Repression and a President for Life
Jul 20, 2018Imad K. HarbFive years after the military coup of July 2013, Egypt’s domestic conditions appear to be heading toward increased authoritarianism, state repression, and regi…
- Policy Analysis
LibyaDemocracy and GovernanceLibya: Controlling Oil, Fearing Partition
Jul 16, 2018Arab Center for Research and Policy Studies (ACRPS)In light of Libya’s institutional fragmentation between east and west, control of the Oil Crescent and its revenues has become a determining factor in the coun…
- Policy Analysis
EgyptConflicts and Conflict ResolutionThe Egypt-Ethiopia Nile Water Crisis: a Cause for Regional Tensions?
Jul 5, 2018Daniel StollWhile the Ethiopian dam on the Nile could be a source of conflict in east Africa, and while relations among Egypt, Ethiopia, and Sudan will remain unsettled fo…
- Policy Analysis
EgyptDemocracy and GovernanceThe Aftermath of Egypt’s 2018 Presidential Election: Stormy Weather Ahead
Jun 26, 2018Charles W. DunneEgyptian President Abdel Fattah al-Sisi's return to office in a rigged election this March failed to provide a strong mandate for difficult economic and politi…
- Policy Analysis
LevantJustice, Equality, and Human RightsHuman Rights, Democracy, and the Changing Middle East: A Status Report
Jun 6, 2018Charles W. DunneDemands for democracy, wider political space, and guarantees of basic human rights have been turned aside by more effective authoritarian responses for now, bu…
- Policy Analysis
North AfricaRegional Relations and GeopoliticsPolitical Calculations…from the Western Sahara to the Arabian Gulf
Jun 4, 2018Mohammed CherkaouiThe timing of Morocco’s decision to sever relations with Iran and to close the Iranian embassy in Rabat “immediately” on May 1, 2018, has raised questions abou…
- Viewpoint
LibyaConflicts and Conflict ResolutionAn Accord for Libya?
Jun 1, 2018Imad K. HarbAmid the many conflicts rending the Arab world today, the one in Libya recently took a hopeful turn toward a peace process despite the violence still wracking …
- Policy Analysis
LevantUS Domestic Politics and ElectionsOne year on, Trump remains the cause of – and solution to – the Qatar crisis
May 23, 2018Andreas KriegWhen it turned out the statements released by Qatar's news agency were the product of an external cyber-attack, and not the actual words of the country's emir,…
- Viewpoint
EgyptConflicts and Conflict ResolutionDeploying Arab Forces in Syria is not Advisable, nor Possible
May 10, 2018Radwan ZiadehOver the last few months, President Donald Trump has made announcements that regional states should bear more of the burden of ridding Syria of the so-called I…
- Policy Analysis
LevantEnergy and EconomicsBetween Idealism and Realpolitik: Erdoğan’s Quest for Palestine
Apr 26, 2018Mustafa GurbuzTurkey’s active policy for Palestine enables Ankara to strengthen its ties to the Palestinian Authority and Hamas simultaneously and thus to bolster its role a…
- Policy Analysis
North AfricaDemocracy and GovernanceMajor Stakes in Tunisia’s Municipal Elections
Apr 24, 2018Charles W. DunneTunisia, the only true success story from the Arab Spring thus far, finds itself at a crossroads as it approaches major national elections over the next year a…
- ViewpointLibyaConflicts and Conflict Resolution
Haftar’s Illness and Libya’s Troubles
Apr 20, 2018Imad K. HarbLibya’s confusing political environment just became a little more so with the reported illness of strongman General Khalifa Haftar. He is commander of the so-c…
- Policy Analysis
SudanConflicts and Conflict ResolutionEgyptian-Sudanese Relations on the Mend, but Tensions Remain
Apr 16, 2018Gregory AftandilianEgyptian-Sudanese relations are currently improving although the nature of their ties over the years remains prone to rapid change. Part of their problems are …
- Policy Analysis
LevantUS Foreign PolicyPompeo Unlikely to Press for Human Rights in the Arab Region
Mar 29, 2018Gregory AftandilianIn contrast to Tillerson, who raised human rights and democracy concerns in some Arab states, Pompeo is unlikely to do so given his ideology and desire to stay…
- Policy Analysis
EgyptDemocracy and GovernanceEgypt’s Presidential Elections and the Challenges Ahead
Mar 20, 2018Charles W. DunneSisi is on his way to a second term but Egypt is set for a number of challenges after its presidential elections regarding economic development, human rights a…
- Policy Analysis
LevantUS Domestic Politics and ElectionsFiring Tillerson Leaves US Diplomacy in Limbo
Mar 15, 2018Joe MacaronTillerson’s firing comes at a critical time in US foreign policy. New dynamics are emerging in the Trump Administration and the successor Mike Pompeo should ba…
- Policy Analysis
LevantSecurity and DefenseWill Trump Further Militarize the Arab World?
Feb 28, 2018Marcus MontgomeryUnder the leadership of President Donald Trump, the Arab world may be poised for increased militarization as he pushes for military sales and it experiences nu…
- Policy Analysis
LevantConflicts and Conflict ResolutionAn Unsettling Overview of the Middle East in 2018
Feb 2, 2018Abdulwahab Al-QassabIt is clear from ongoing developments in the Middle East that the United States and Russia will continue to play a role that meets their own national interests…
- Policy Analysis
EgyptUS Foreign PolicyThe Middle East Nuclear Picture: Peaceful Programs or Not, Cause for Concern
Feb 2, 2018Charles W. DunneFocusing solely on the Iranian nuclear program has made Washington oblivious to some significant nuclear developments in other parts of the Middle East.
- Policy Analysis
EgyptDemocracy and GovernanceEgypt’s Presidential Election Shaping Up as a Non-Contest
Jan 26, 2018Gregory AftandilianPresident Sisi has an easy path to reelection in March after his two main rivals have either been pressured to halt their candidacies or have dropped out of th…
- Policy Analysis
MoroccoDemocracy and GovernanceThe Moroccan King’s “Political Earthquake”: Old Medicine in New Bottles?
Jan 17, 2018Mohammed CherkaouiThe real promise of political and economic reforms in Morocco mostly depends on whether King Mohammed VI is sincere about implementing them and if he succeeds …
- Policy Analysis
EgyptConflicts and Conflict ResolutionEgyptian and Jordanian Relations with Israel under Strain
Jan 10, 2018Gregory AftandilianGenerally cordial and cooperative, Egyptian and Jordanian relations with Israel are currently strained following provocative actions by the U.S. and Israel on …
- Policy Analysis
LevantUS Foreign PolicyThe Middle East in 2018: A Trump Administration To-Do List
Jan 9, 2018Charles W. DunneUS Middle East priorities in 2018 include Iran, the fate of the two-state solution, and managing instability in Iraq and Syria. US policy confusion and lack of…
- Policy Analysis
EgyptRegional Relations and GeopoliticsPutin in Egypt as the United States Retreats
Dec 19, 2017Gregory AftandilianFrom the perspective of President Abdel Fattah el-Sisi, warming relations with Moscow sends a signal to Washington that the US-Egyptian bilateral relationship …
- Policy Analysis
LibyaDemocracy and GovernanceLibya’s Modern Slavery and the Politics of Denial
Dec 18, 2017Mohammed CherkaouiThe treatment of refugees and migrants in Libya raises new questions about three major political, socioeconomic, and moral dilemmas for the Libyan government, …
- Policy Analysis
EgyptMedia and TechnologyPress Freedom Reversals in Post-Arab Spring Countries
Dec 18, 2017Sahar KhamisJust like the path to democratization and reform has been obstructed or derailed in most of the Arab Spring countries, so has the path to media freedom, in a p…
- Policy Analysis
LevantEnergy and EconomicsTurkey’s Policy toward a Fractured Libya
Dec 12, 2017Mustafa GurbuzTurkey is interested in being on good terms with all Libyan factions but is caught up in the complex relations between Libya’s political forces and their regio…
- Policy AnalysisEgyptReligion and Politics
Egypt Still Banking on Libya’s Haftar While Reaching Out to Other Leaders
Dec 4, 2017Gregory AftandilianEconomic and primarily security interests drive Egypt’s Sisi to support General Khalifa Haftar, strongman in eastern Libya, against Islamist movements while al…
- Policy Analysis
LevantUS Foreign PolicyMissing Considerations of the Counterterrorism Alliance
Nov 29, 2017Imad K. HarbThe first meeting of the Islamic Military Counterterrorism Coalition, which took place in Riyadh, may have provided recognition of MbS’s leadership of the Musl…
- Policy Analysis
LevantUS Foreign PolicyUS Military Planning in the Middle East: Increasing Challenges, Vague Strategies
Nov 28, 2017Charles W. DunneUncertainties about US military policy, intentions, and ambitions in the Middle East together with many political challenges and developments increase the conf…
- Policy Analysis
North AfricaDemocracy and GovernanceChallenges to Tunisia’s Transition to Democracy
Nov 21, 2017Mohammed CherkaouiRecent moves by the Tunisian executive suggest that the Jasmine Revolution is not unfolding as smoothly as expected and that the country may not be the excepti…
- Policy Analysis
EgyptDemocracy and GovernanceIs Egypt’s Population Growth a Blessing or a Curse?
Nov 20, 2017Sahar KhamisAt 98 million, Egypt’s rapid population growth is a threat to the national economy and an obstacle to the country’s prospects for development and prosperity.
- Policy Analysis
North AfricaConflicts and Conflict ResolutionEmerging Security Challenges in North and West Africa
Nov 8, 2017Mohammed CherkaouiThe appearance of stability in the countries of north and west Africa belies a dangerous reality of the existence of many extremist groups feeding on poor soci…
- Policy Analysis
EgyptIdentity Politics and SectarianizationEgypt’s Security Challenges in the Sinai Belie the Government’s Rhetoric
Oct 26, 2017Gregory AftandilianClashes in the northern Sinai Peninsula that resulted in scores of deaths of Egyptian security forces have underscored the durability of the extremist insurgen…
- Policy Analysis
LibyaConflicts and Conflict ResolutionLibya’s Complicated Search for a Leader
Oct 24, 2017Mohammed CherkaouiLibya faces an uneasy distinction between a fragile state and a failed state and has fallen between the cracks of a dispute over legitimacy, struggle for power…
- Policy Analysis
MoroccoDemocracy and GovernanceMorocco’s Rif Rises against the Makhzen’s Power
Oct 4, 2017Mohammed CherkaouiMorocco’s popular protests highlight three intersecting dilemmas: the future legitimacy of the monarchy, poor governance and widespread corruption, and the pot…
- Policy Analysis
EgyptDemocracy and GovernanceEgypt’s Role in Arab Politics: Punching Below its Weight
Oct 4, 2017Charles W. DunneEgypt’s traditional influence in the Arab world is a function of its ability to help resolve its problems. This influence is today on a downward trajectory as …
- Policy Analysis
North AfricaJustice, Equality, and Human RightsA New Tunisian Law Tackles Violence Against Women
Sep 12, 2017Sahar KhamisThe new Tunisian law against violence against women sets a new model for the Arab world to emulate and raises the bar in the struggle for women’s rights and ge…
- Policy Analysis
EgyptDemocracy and GovernanceEgypt’s Extremist Groups and the Shrinking Political Space
Aug 29, 2017Gregory AftandilianThe Egyptian government’s repressive policies have contributed to the problem of extremism by constricting political space, severely cracking down on opponents…
- Policy Analysis
EgyptJustice, Equality, and Human RightsIs the Trump-Sisi Honeymoon Over?
Aug 28, 2017Imad K. HarbThe State Department’s decision on aid to Egypt shows that the Trump Administration cannot sidestep established law or Congress’s power of appropriation despit…
- Policy Analysis
LibyaConflicts and Conflict ResolutionThe Still Elusive Libyan Peace
Aug 17, 2017Imad K. HarbThe political impasse in Libya may pave the way for a final collapse of the nearly failed Libyan state and the subsequent divorce between the eastern and weste…
- Policy Analysis
EgyptConflicts and Conflict ResolutionAn Economic Explanation for Egypt’s Alignment in the GCC Crisis
Aug 9, 2017Imad K. HarbWith Egypt heavily reliant on Saudi Arabia and the UAE for its economic stability and survival, Cairo may not find much room for independent foreign policy dec…
- Policy Analysis
AlgeriaDemocracy and GovernanceChallenges Facing Algeria’s Future
Jul 21, 2017Imad K. HarbAlgeria is challenged by a lethargic political system headed by an ailing president, a poorly performing rentier economy, and a rising Salafi Islam that is com…
- Policy Analysis
EgyptConflicts and Conflict ResolutionEgyptian-Saudi Relations: Managing a Difficult Marriage
Jun 6, 2017Gregory AftandilianSaudi Arabia and Egypt need each other at this uncertain time and this inter-dependence keeps them together in a symbiotic relationship despite occasional stra…
- Policy Analysis
EgyptConflicts and Conflict ResolutionTurkish-Egyptian Relations: Nowhere to Go but Up
May 30, 2017Charles W. DunneEgypt and Turkey, both staunch US allies, have found themselves locked in a war of words—and worse—for nearly four years since the overthrow of President Moham…
- Policy Analysis
North AfricaDemocracy and GovernanceTunisians Want a Better Economy and a Democratic System
May 1, 2017Imad K. HarbForty-nine percent of Tunisians consider improving the economy the topmost priority while 20 percent think that security is. An overwhelming majority want a de…
- Research Paper
MoroccoConflicts and Conflict ResolutionThe Four-Approach Dilemma of the Western Sahara Conflict
Apr 25, 2017Mohammed CherkaouiWhile awaiting the perennial renewal of the mandate for the UN monitoring force (MINURSO, or Mission for the Referendum in Western Sahara) in Western Sahara at…
- Policy Analysis
LevantDemocracy and GovernanceThe Quandary of Bad Governance in the Arab World
Apr 24, 2017Imad K. HarbPolling in the Arab world shows that Arabs in general have little confidence in their civilian institutions and believe that their governments are not doing en…
- Policy Analysis
LevantConflicts and Conflict ResolutionThe Outsider Diplomat: Tillerson Strives to Define his Role
Apr 6, 2017Joe MacaronAfter two months in office, Tillerson is gradually coping in his new job; his success or failure will indeed have a significant impact on US foreign policy in …
- Policy AnalysisEgyptDemocracy and Governance
Egypt’s Fragile Stability: Erosion of the Rule of Law and Institutions of Governance
Mar 30, 2017Moataz El FegieryThis paper addresses the erosion of the rule of law and institutions of governance in Egypt by discussing the significant expansion of legal repression, the cl…
- Policy AnalysisLevantJustice, Equality, and Human Rights
The Difficult Tasks for the Arab League
Mar 22, 2017Imad K. HarbAs the Arab League limps through its eighth decade, its problems increase in number and intensity while the Arab state system continues to be burdened with pol…
- Policy AnalysisNorth AfricaConflicts and Conflict Resolution
Democratization and Radicalization: Understanding Tunisia’s Model of Democratic Transition
Feb 21, 2017Tamara KharroubOn February 1, 2017, German police arrested a Tunisian asylum seeker suspected of recruiting for the Islamic State of Iraq and the Levant (ISIL) and planning a…
