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EgyptRegional Relations and GeopoliticsUnderstanding Egypt’s Strategy in Libya
Jul 8, 2020Khalil Al-AnaniKhalil al-Anani discounts the chances for a direct Egyptian military intervention in Libya despite the dangers of instability and chaos there and their impact …
- Policy Analysis
Regional Relations and GeopoliticsThe Middle East Settles in for a Long, Hot, and Dangerous Summer
Jun 24, 2020Daniel BrumbergDaniel Brumberg examines the conditions that could make this summer a dangerous period in the Middle East as contentious issues weigh heavily on competing regi…
- Policy Analysis
SyriaEnergy and EconomicsUS-Russian Competition and the M4 Highway in Syria
Jun 23, 2020Joe MacaronJoe Macaron argues that in Syria, implementing the Caesar Act sanctions and opening the east-west M4 Highway reflect intensified US-Russian competition while t…
- Policy Analysis
JordanConflicts and Conflict ResolutionThe Israeli Annexation Plan and Jordan’s West Bank Moment
Jun 3, 2020Joe MacaronJoe Macaron argues that as Netanyahu makes plans to annex parts of the occupied West Bank, Jordan faces difficult choices in appeasing domestic critics and pre…
- Policy Analysis
JordanThe GCCJordan Maneuvers in GCC Politics to Protect Its Interests
May 27, 2020Gregory AftandilianDespite its heavy dependence on the GCC for economic aid and employment for its workforce, Jordan has been able to pursue political positions not always in syn…
- Policy Analysis
SyriaDemocracy and GovernanceA Fracture That Will Not Threaten the Assad Regime in Syria
May 18, 2020Radwan ZiadehRadwan Ziadeh discounts the long-term political repercussions of the Assad-Makhlouf dispute and writes that if the regime gets in serious trouble, the cousins …
- Policy Analysis
IranRegional Relations and GeopoliticsIran Is Running a Custom-Made Strategy in the Levant
May 18, 2020Joe MacaronAlthough economic pressures are forcing the Iranian regime to cut its losses in the Levant, it would be a mistake for the Trump Administration and its allies t…
- Policy Analysis
IranUS Foreign PolicyWorrisome American Response to Iran in the Gulf
May 5, 2020Abdulwahab Al-QassabAbdulwahab Al-Qassab examines the muted US response to Iranian provocations in the Arabian Gulf, surmising that it reflects poorly on the reputation of the Uni…
- Viewpoint
YemenConflicts and Conflict ResolutionA Unified Yemen May Soon Cease to Exist
Apr 27, 2020Imad K. HarbWith President Hadi too weak to respond to the self-rule declaration by the UAE- supported Southern Transitional Council, and Saudi Arabia too economically tro…
- Policy Analysis
LibyaRegional Relations and GeopoliticsLibya: Between Proxy War and International Failure
Apr 14, 2020Khalil Al-AnaniThe domestic, regional, and international players of the Libyan conflict continue to fuel the civil war nine years after the toppling of Muammar Qadhafi.
- Policy Analysis
IraqDemocracy and GovernanceConfusion in Iraq: A Fractious Political Process and Free-Wheeling Militias
Mar 30, 2020Abdulwahab Al-QassabAbdulwahab al-Qassab highlights Iraq's current political problems and calls upon Iraqi politicians to put aside their differences and concentrate on how to avo…
- Policy Analysis
JordanUS Foreign PolicyJordan and Trump’s Peace Plan
Mar 24, 2020Gregory AftandilianJordan’s relations with Israel have hit a low point following the unveiling of the Trump peace plan because of fears over annexation of Israeli settlements in …
- Policy Analysis
SyriaRegional Relations and GeopoliticsRussian-Turkish Tensions in Syria May Help Mend the US-Turkish Divide
Mar 20, 2020Daniel BrumbergDaniel Brumberg studies the intricacies of Turkey's involvement in Syria and accommodation with Russia as it simultaneously hopes to enlist the assistance of t…
- Policy Analysis
SyriaRegional Relations and GeopoliticsThe Muted Arab Attempt to Restore Influence in Syria
Mar 18, 2020Joe MacaronWill Arab countries be able to renew their influence in Syria given the ever-present inter-Arab rivalry and unfavorable geopolitical factors?
- Policy Analysis
EgyptRegional Relations and GeopoliticsEgypt-Turkey Strained Relations: Implications for Regional Security
Mar 18, 2020Khalil Al-AnaniEgyptian-Turkish tensions over influence, Libya, the eastern Mediterranean, and the Gulf region have increased regional insecurity and require de-escalation an…
- Policy Analysis
SyriaRegional Relations and GeopoliticsComplications for Turkey in Idlib
Mar 17, 2020Mustafa GurbuzAnkara’s options in Idlib are extremely limited as it must enforce moderation on the part of the extremists as well as address the refugee crisis.
- From our Affiliates
SyriaConflicts and Conflict ResolutionThe Moscow Summit: Will the Ceasefire Hold in Idlib?
Mar 11, 2020Arab Center for Research and Policy Studies (ACRPS)The failure of previous arrangements regarding Syria suggests that the latest ceasefire agreement between Turkey and Russia may only be temporary. Read this an…
- Policy Analysis
SyriaRegional Relations and GeopoliticsRussia Has Limits on Its Influence in the Middle East
Mar 10, 2020Charles W. DunneCharles W. Dunne argues that despite Russia’s success in Syria and stealthy gains in the Middle East since 2015, the limits on its capabilities have become inc…
- Policy Analysis
IraqRegional Relations and GeopoliticsThe United States and Iran Continue to Maneuver in Iraq
Feb 21, 2020Gregory AftandilianGregory Aftandilian contends that after the very tense period of December 2019-January 2020, the United States and Iran are seeking to restore their credibilit…
- Policy Analysis
Regional Relations and GeopoliticsThe Dangerous Consequence of Marginalizing the Arab “Moderates”
Feb 18, 2020Joe MacaronBy prioritizing Arab-Israeli normalization in order to deter Iran, the Trump Administration is enabling Arab authoritarians and reinforcing the dangerous possi…
- Policy Analysis
YemenConflicts and Conflict ResolutionYemen: Order of Battle Trumps Peace
Feb 3, 2020Nabeel A. KhouryMilitary clashes in Yemen will not advance the interests of the warring parties, cautions Nabeel Khoury, who sees that victory there is only pyrrhic amid the d…
- Policy Analysis
LebanonUS Foreign PolicyUS, Iran Prolong Détente in Lebanon with a Status Quo Cabinet
Jan 29, 2020Joe MacaronJoe Macaron contends that the new Lebanese government of Hassan Diab is a continuation of the old oligarchic status quo and appears to prolong the US-Iran déte…
- From our Affiliates
LibyaRegional Relations and GeopoliticsTurkey’s Growing Role in Libya: Motives, Background, and Responses
Jan 9, 2020Arab Center for Research and Policy Studies (ACRPS)There are fears that external interventions in Libya may prolong its conflict and threaten the future and territorial integrity of the country. Read this analy…
- Policy Analysis
LibyaRegional Relations and GeopoliticsIs Turkey Playing with Fire in Libya?
Jan 6, 2020Mustafa GurbuzTurkish troops aim to buttress Libya's Government of National Accord, but escalating tensions in the Mediterranean may actually harm both Ankara and Tripoli.
- Policy Analysis
LibyaRegional Relations and GeopoliticsThe Libya-Turkey Memorandum of Understanding: Local and Regional Repercussions
Jan 2, 2020Arab Center for Research and Policy Studies (ACRPS)The signing of the Libyan-Turkish memorandum of understanding on maritime sovereignty in the Eastern Mediterranean has coincided with increased tensions both w…
- Policy Analysis
IranRegional Relations and GeopoliticsThe United States and Iran Readjust to New Realities in Iraq and Lebanon
Dec 18, 2019Joe MacaronAfter 15 years of rivalry in Iraq and Lebanon, the United States and Iran are adjusting their policies based on a new reality of popular uprisings that challen…
- Policy Analysis
Palestine/IsraelConflicts and Conflict ResolutionBurgeoning Arab-Israeli Normalization? Not Quite What You Think
Dec 11, 2019Yousef MunayyerEfforts to normalize relations between Arab leaders and Israel will continue to collide with the overwhelming rejection of normalization by the peoples of the …
- Policy Analysis
The Arabian Peninsula and The GulfThe GCCGCC Reconciliation Is Coming, but Pesky Issues Remain
Dec 8, 2019Imad K. HarbA limited reconciliation between parties to the GCC crisis is likely to take place during the upcoming summit in Riyadh. However, certain thorny and serious po…
- Viewpoint
The Arabian Peninsula and The GulfThe GCCChallenges to Resolving the GCC Crisis
Dec 4, 2019Khalil E. JahshanKhalil E. Jahshan discusses the challenges inherent in a reconciliation between Qatar and the neighboring countries that embargoed it and precipitated the unse…
- Policy Analysis
IranDemocracy and GovernanceIs Iran on the Edge of a Precipice?
Nov 27, 2019Daniel BrumbergDaniel Brumberg questions whether the latest protests in Iran will produce a wider political movement, one that has the support of an urban professional and bu…
- Policy Analysis
IraqDemocracy and GovernanceWith Iraq’s Mounting Chaos Spreading, Time for a US Policy Reboot
Nov 27, 2019Charles W. DunneCharles W. Dunne argues that in light of Iraq’s current crisis, the United States must take bold steps to help stabilize the country, enhance anti-corruption a…
- Policy Analysis
EgyptRegional Relations and GeopoliticsCloser Egyptian-Russian Relations Causing a Headache in Washington
Nov 26, 2019Gregory AftandilianGregory Aftandilian states that US officials are warning Egypt not to move ahead with the purchase of advanced Russian jet fighters; however, developing ties b…
- From our Affiliates
YemenRegional Relations and GeopoliticsThe Riyadh Agreement on Yemen: Arrangements and Chances of Success
Nov 18, 2019Arab Center for Research and Policy Studies (ACRPS)The Riyadh Agreement’s success will depend in large part on the local parties’ conviction that it serves their purposes at this time more than continued war do…
- Policy Analysis
SyriaRegional Relations and GeopoliticsRussia’s Gains in Syria Could Be a Blessing in Disguise
Nov 6, 2019Joe MacaronJoe Macaron argues that while Russia may fill the vacuum left by the withdrawal of American troops from the Turkish-Syrian border, it could have challenges dea…
- Policy Analysis
SyriaRegional Relations and GeopoliticsThe Russia-Turkey Deal for Syria Will Go Nowhere
Nov 5, 2019Mustafa GurbuzMustafa Gurbuz analyzes the problems in implementing the initial phase of the latest Turkish-Russian agreement in Syria, concluding they indicate that the deal…
- Policy Analysis
LevantDemocracy and GovernanceBy Electing Kais Saied, Tunisians Recast Their National Politics
Oct 17, 2019Daniel BrumbergThe Tunisian electorate has handed the independent candidate Kais Saied a huge victory. With 73 percent of the vote against Nabil Karoui’s 27 percent, he now h…
- Policy Analysis
LevantConflicts and Conflict ResolutionConfusion in Turkey’s Regional Foreign Policy
Oct 8, 2019Mustafa GurbuzTurkish foreign policy choices in Syria, Sudan, Libya, and Somalia are plagued with contradictions that may lead to self-defeating outcomes.
- Viewpoint
IraqRegional Relations and GeopoliticsDisturbing Developments in Iraq’s Security Establishments
Oct 1, 2019Abdulwahab Al-QassabInterference by Iran and Iraqi political groups in the functioning of the Iraqi armed forces and security services has resulted in deteriorating discipline amo…
- Policy Analysis
North AfricaDemocracy and GovernanceTunisia Struggles to Project Foreign Policy Independence
Aug 22, 2019Daniel BrumbergTunisia’s leaders would do well to balance their hopes for democracy and human rights with the pragmatic exigencies of an independent foreign policy that prote…
- Viewpoint
IranConflicts and Conflict ResolutionIraq Enters the Israel-Iran Proxy War
Aug 20, 2019Abdulwahab Al-QassabIsraeli strikes against the Popular Mobilization Units in Iraq may have created another battleground in the proxy war between Israel and the Islamic Republic o…
- Policy Analysis
LevantIdentity Politics and SectarianizationPartition and Spheres of Influence in Syria
Aug 5, 2019Radwan ZiadehRadwan Ziadeh opines that Syria can no longer be considered a homeland for all Syrians and that its partition has become a reality. Restoring its societal make…
- Policy Analysis
North AfricaDemocracy and GovernanceTunisia’s Fragile Democracy after Essebsi
Aug 2, 2019Daniel BrumbergDaniel Brumberg argues that Tunisia’s Essebsi leaves behind a political crisis that is partly rooted in a convoluted constitutional language that does not clea…
- Policy Analysis
IranRegional Relations and GeopoliticsHamas Plans a Comeback to Damascus: US and Regional Implications
Jul 31, 2019Joe MacaronHamas is looking to realign itself with Syria as the Trump Administration floats ideas about Palestinian-Israeli peace; however, it appears that the Syrian reg…
- Policy Analysis
LevantConflicts and Conflict ResolutionVarious Players Maneuver for an Uncertain Future in Syria
Jul 24, 2019Gregory AftandilianRussia, Iran, Turkey, and Israel are positioning themselves to play a role in Syria’s uncertain future now that the Assad regime is defeating the opposition in…
- Policy Analysis
IranRegional Relations and GeopoliticsHard Choices Facing Tehran and Washington
Jul 10, 2019Daniel BrumbergIf the Trump Administration decides to adhere to a strategy of pushing for regime change in Tehran, Iran’s leaders might eventually embrace a fraught nucleariz…
- Policy Analysis
EgyptRegional Relations and GeopoliticsSaudi-Emirati-Egyptian Alliance Steering US Middle East Policy
Jun 26, 2019Charles W. DunneWith the American retreat from the Middle East, Saudi Arabia, the UAE, and Egypt are presenting themselves as reliable allies. However, they are pursuing an ag…
- Policy Analysis
IranIdentity Politics and SectarianizationIraq’s Militias and the US-Iran Impasse
Jun 6, 2019Abdulwahab Al-QassabThe Iraqi government has a difficult time managing its mutual relations with Iran and the United States because of the influence of Iran-supported militias in …
- Policy Analysis
The Arabian Peninsula and The GulfJustice, Equality, and Human RightsIs Partition Becoming a Reality in Yemen?
May 22, 2019Imad K. HarbIf Yemen’s southern secessionists succeed in establishing a UAE-controlled rump state, Saudi Arabia will have to contend with either continuing the conflict in…
- Policy Analysis
EgyptConflicts and Conflict ResolutionWorrisome Competition in the Red Sea Subsystem
May 1, 2019Abdulwahab Al-QassabThe Red Sea subsystem involves many capable regional and international actors with competing agendas that, if not reconciled, could increase tensions and lead …
- Policy Analysis
LebanonDemocracy and GovernanceThe Trickiness of Syria’s Return to the Arab League
Mar 29, 2019Imad K. HarbIt is important for Arab states to continue to withhold Syria’s membership until Damascus agrees to a political process that leads to a transition from Assad’s…
- Policy Analysis
LebanonEnergy and EconomicsThe Eastern Mediterranean Gas Forum Reinforces Current Regional Dynamics
Jan 25, 2019Joe MacaronThe recently announced Eastern Mediterranean Gas Forum is not likely to aid cooperation or economic integration because the policies of its member states mirro…
- Policy Analysis
LebanonDemocracy and GovernanceThe Arab Rehabilitation of the Assad Regime
Jan 16, 2019Radwan ZiadehAssad will be able to regain his political legitimacy after winning his battle militarily only if he rehabilitates his regime’s standing in the Arab world.
- Viewpoint
QatarEnergy and EconomicsQatar Withdraws from OPEC: Business, Politics, or Both?
Dec 6, 2018Khalil E. JahshanIt strains credulity to believe that Qatar’s decision to withdraw from OPEC was taken in total isolation from the regional conflict and tensions with neighbors.
- Policy Analysis
Palestine/IsraelConflicts and Conflict ResolutionIsrael and Gaza: From the Brink of War to the Brink of Elections
Nov 27, 2018Yousef MunayyerAfter new elections in Israel, there is little reason to expect anything other than another right-wing Israeli government led by Benjamin Netanyahu.
- Viewpoint
IraqRegional Relations and GeopoliticsRussian Gains Are American Losses in the Arab World
Oct 30, 2018Imad K. HarbPutin’s assessment of a receding American international influence paves the way for an even larger Russian role in the Arab world.
- Research Paper
EgyptDemocracy and GovernanceRegional States and Egypt’s Democratic Transition
Oct 25, 2018Imad K. HarbQatar, Saudi Arabia, and the United Arab Emirates were the most influential external actors in Egypt’s transition to democracy and its reversal after the 2011 …
- Policy Analysis
LevantRegional Relations and GeopoliticsThe Trump Administration’s Objectives in Syria
Aug 28, 2018Imad K. HarbAmerican officials’ latest pronouncements on Syria are intended to help insinuate some important preferences as the conflict there arguably nears its end on Ru…
- Policy Analysis
BahrainRegional Relations and GeopoliticsThe Exclusionary Turn in GCC Politics
Aug 21, 2018Kristian Coates UlrichsenThe emergence of a hyper-hawkish geopolitical axis running from Riyadh to Abu Dhabi has widened existing fractures within the GCC and inflicted potentially lon…
- Policy Analysis
LevantInternational LawIsrael Returns to Basics in Syria: “Better the devil you know”
Aug 15, 2018Joe MacaronAfter nearly seven years of unrest next door, Israel opted to coexist with the Assad regime and to return to the stability in the occupied Golan Heights that l…
- Policy Analysis
IranConflicts and Conflict ResolutionPutin Arbitrates Iran’s Presence in Syria
Aug 10, 2018Daniel BrumbergRumors of a rocky Russian-Iranian alliance have been greatly exaggerated. Putin as arbiter in Syria will only do what serves Russia’s influence there.
- Viewpoint
Saudi ArabiaJustice, Equality, and Human RightsThe Latest Example of Erratic Saudi Foreign Policy
Aug 9, 2018Imad K. HarbOnce again, impulsive, ill-advised, and harmful foreign policy decisions are negatively impacting Saudi Arabia’s global standing. The kingdom has expelled the …
- Policy Analysis
LevantRegional Relations and GeopoliticsMiddle East Concerns of American Strategic Planners
Jul 26, 2018Gregory AftandilianUS strategic planners involved in the Middle East have concentrated on protecting vital sea lanes and assisting partner countries against threats, but without …
- Policy Analysis
IraqDemocracy and GovernanceThe Dangerous Dynamics of Iraq’s Constitutional Vacuum
Jul 12, 2018Abdulwahab Al-QassabWith parliamentary results unfinished and a caretaker government barely running the affairs of state, Iraq is facing a dangerous constitutional vacuum at a ver…
- Viewpoint
LevantConflicts and Conflict ResolutionThe Raging—and Surprising—Battle for Southern Syria
Jul 5, 2018Radwan ZiadehThe Syrian regime began its assault on the southern city of Daraa toward the end of June, assisted as elsewhere in Syria by Russian warplanes and Iran-supporte…
- Policy Analysis
North AfricaRegional Relations and GeopoliticsPolitical Calculations…from the Western Sahara to the Arabian Gulf
Jun 4, 2018Mohammed CherkaouiThe timing of Morocco’s decision to sever relations with Iran and to close the Iranian embassy in Rabat “immediately” on May 1, 2018, has raised questions abou…
- Viewpoint
IranConflicts and Conflict ResolutionA Crack in the Russian-Iranian Alliance in Syria?
May 23, 2018Joe MacaronIn a rare instance since the Russian intervention in Syria in September 2015, the policy differences between Moscow and Tehran have become public. This raised …
- Viewpoint
IranConflicts and Conflict ResolutionA Dangerous Israeli-Iranian Escalation in Syria
May 11, 2018Joe MacaronIn the most dangerous escalation since the establishment of the Golan Heights ceasefire line in 1973, Israel and Iran exchanged fire in southwestern Syria unde…
- ViewpointLebanonIdentity Politics and Sectarianization
Lebanon’s Elections Provide No Serious Change
May 10, 2018Imad K. HarbLebanon has just finished a feverish election campaign for its 128-seat Chamber of Deputies. This round followed a nine-year period in which this basic democra…
- ViewpointEgyptConflicts and Conflict Resolution
Deploying Arab Forces in Syria is not Advisable, nor Possible
May 10, 2018Radwan ZiadehOver the last few months, President Donald Trump has made announcements that regional states should bear more of the burden of ridding Syria of the so-called I…
- ViewpointLevantJustice, Equality, and Human Rights
Mohammed bin Salman Is Wrong on Palestine
May 2, 2018Imad K. HarbCritics allege that impetuousness and impatience are driving Saudi Arabia’s Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman’s actions and statements. What could also be drivi…
- ViewpointLibyaConflicts and Conflict Resolution
Haftar’s Illness and Libya’s Troubles
Apr 20, 2018Imad K. HarbLibya’s confusing political environment just became a little more so with the reported illness of strongman General Khalifa Haftar. He is commander of the so-c…
