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Saudi ArabiaRegional Relations and GeopoliticsSaudi Reasons for a Rapprochement with Turkey
May 31, 2022Kristian Coates UlrichsenReports that Saudi Arabian Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman may be planning to visit Turkey as part of an international trip in June, one of his first outside …
- Policy Analysis
North AfricaRegional Relations and GeopoliticsMaghreb-France Relations as Macron Begins Second Term
May 26, 2022Zeidon AlkinaniFor France to remain on good terms with North Africa, it has to be ready to offer concrete assistance and avoid what in many respects have been Macron’s symbol…
- Policy Analysis
YemenConflicts and Conflict ResolutionYemen’s Presidential Leadership Council Offers Hope Amid Uncertainty
May 24, 2022Gregory AftandilianThe surprise resignation of Yemeni President Abdrabbu Mansour Hadi in early April and his immediate replacement by an eight-member Presidential Leadership Coun…
- Policy Analysis
Palestine/IsraelRegional Relations and GeopoliticsMiddle East Leaders Contend with Strains in an Evolving Regional Entente
May 13, 2022Daniel BrumbergIn its unfolding bid to expand ties with Middle East governments, Israel must grapple with a basic challenge: how to ensure that events in the Palestinian-Isra…
- Policy Analysis
EgyptEnergy and EconomicsGulf Countries’ Aid to Egypt: It Is Politics, Not the Economy, Stupid!
May 5, 2022Khalil Al-AnaniOn April 4, 2022, Gulf Arab countries pledged $22 billion to help Egypt avert a currency crisis resulting from the Russian war on Ukraine. The Egyptian pound l…
- Policy Analysis
EgyptThe War in UkraineRussia’s War on Ukraine: Egypt’s Limited Room for Maneuver
Apr 6, 2022Khalil Al-AnaniThe Russian war on Ukraine will have significant impacts on countries in the Middle East, ranging from strategic realignments to energy security and food suppl…
- Policy Analysis
TurkeyThe War in UkraineThe Syrian Connection in the Turkish-Russian Tango
Apr 4, 2022Mustafa GurbuzLeveraging its close relations with both sides of the Ukraine conflict, Turkey has seized the opportunity to highlight its strategic importance. The latest Rus…
- Policy Analysis
IranSecurity and DefenseIsrael-Iran Shadow War in Syria intensifies Amid International Developments
Mar 23, 2022Gregory AftandilianThe ongoing military conflict between Israel and Iran (along with Iran-backed Shia forces like Hezbollah) in Syria show no signs of easing despite the Russia-U…
- Policy Analysis
IraqRegional Relations and GeopoliticsCurrent Iraq-Gulf Relations: Economics over Politics?
Mar 23, 2022Zeidon AlkinaniThe Gulf Arab states practiced an almost unified approach to post–2003 Iraq, which was generally derived from their established alliance following the 1990–199…
- Policy Analysis
The Arabian Peninsula and The GulfThe War in UkraineThe GCC and the Russia-Ukraine Crisis
Mar 22, 2022Kristian Coates UlrichsenThe six countries of the Gulf Cooperation Council have responded to the Russian invasion of Ukraine according to their interests and preferences. While the fig…
- Policy Analysis
IranConflicts and Conflict ResolutionIran and Israel Deal with the Rampaging Russian Bear
Mar 16, 2022Daniel BrumbergRussia’s invasion of Ukraine has produced some unusual bedfellows, the strangest of whom are Iran and Israel. Perhaps the term “bedfellows” is an exaggeration,…
- Policy Analysis
EgyptRegional Relations and GeopoliticsSisi Intensifies Arms Imports to Secure External Support for His Policies
Feb 28, 2022Khalil Al-AnaniEgypt has become the third largest arms importer in the world, according to Stockholm International Peace Research Institute (SIPRI). The institute’s “Trends i…
- Policy Analysis
TurkeyRegional Relations and GeopoliticsIsrael and Turkey Ponder the Costs and Benefits of Rapprochement
Feb 25, 2022Daniel BrumbergOn February 6, Haaretz reported that Israeli President Isaac Herzog called to wish Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan and his wife a speedy recovery, after…
- Policy Analysis
TurkeyRegional Relations and GeopoliticsTurkey’s Evolving Policy toward Iran
Feb 16, 2022Mustafa GurbuzTurkish Foreign Minister Mevlut Cavusoğlu’s official call to his Israeli counterpart was a rarity since the Erdoğan-Peres confrontation in Davos in January 200…
- Policy Analysis
QatarUS Foreign PolicyQatar’s New Designation as US Non-NATO Ally Serves Multiple Purposes
Feb 4, 2022Imad K. HarbLess than five years after the eruption of the Gulf crisis of June 2017 that seriously threatened Qatar’s security, President Joe Biden designated the Gulf Ara…
- Policy Analysis
Saudi ArabiaRegional Relations and GeopoliticsAfter Parting Ways: The Coming Frosty Entente in Saudi-Turkish Relations
Feb 2, 2022Jana J. JabbourThis is likely to be Turkey’s year of normalization with regional counterparts, as 2021 was one of diplomatic restoration for Turkish foreign policy. While in …
- Policy Analysis
US Foreign PolicyBiden’s Non-Doctrine in the Middle East: One Year On
Jan 27, 2022Daniel BrumbergTo understand the actual forces shaping US foreign policy, it is imperative to put aside the alluring but misleading notion that a “doctrine” provides a useful…
- Policy Analysis
IranRegional Relations and GeopoliticsUkraine’s Geostrategic Tremors Reach into the Middle East
Jan 13, 2022Daniel BrumbergDaniel Brumberg disentangles the complications arising from the current tensions between Ukraine and Russia and their impact on US-Russian relations as well as…
- Policy Analysis
LebanonDemocracy and GovernancePolitics, Geopolitical Conditions Pushing Lebanon into a Death Spiral
Dec 22, 2021Imad K. HarbConditions in Lebanon today betray a slide toward the total failure of state institutions amid a precipitous downturn of the country’s economic and social indi…
- Policy Analysis
Saudi ArabiaRegional Relations and GeopoliticsMohammed bin Salman’s Regional Rebranding Campaign
Dec 16, 2021Kristian Coates UlrichsenSaudi Arabian Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman (MbS) toured the five smaller Gulf states between December 6, when he visited Oman, and December 10, when he arr…
- Policy Analysis
SyriaRegional Relations and GeopoliticsRehabilitation of the Assad Regime
Dec 15, 2021Radwan ZiadehWith the approaching date of the next Arab Summit to be hosted by Algeria in March 2022, some member countries of the League of Arab States have become more vo…
- Policy Analysis
SudanRegional Relations and GeopoliticsSudan Coup: The Regional Interference behind a Faltering Transition
Dec 11, 2021Khalil Al-AnaniOn October 25, 2021, Sudan’s General Abdel-Fattah al-Burhan staged a coup, declared a state of emergency, dissolved the power-sharing Sovereign Council, sacked…
- Policy Analysis
IranUS Foreign PolicyHigh Stakes at the Vienna Nuclear Talks with Iran
Dec 8, 2021Daniel BrumbergThe ongoing indirect US-Iran negotiations in Vienna on the future of the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA) have thus far made little progress. Already…
- Policy Analysis
The Arabian Peninsula and The GulfRegional Relations and GeopoliticsTurkey and the Gulf States: A New Era of Détente
Dec 8, 2021Mustafa GurbuzTurkish officials celebrated the November 24 visit of Abu Dhabi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Zayed Al Nahyan to Ankara as the beginning of “a new era” between Tur…
- Policy Analysis
Regional Relations and GeopoliticsIs There a Macron Doctrine in the Middle East?
Dec 2, 2021Joe MacaronUnder President Emmanuel Macron, French foreign policy in the Middle East went through a transformative shift, revealing a clear break with his two predecessor…
- Policy Analysis
SyriaRegional Relations and GeopoliticsRussia’s Multifaceted Policy in Syria
Nov 23, 2021Gregory AftandilianMore than six years after Russia began its military intervention in the Syrian civil war, President Vladimir Putin has chalked up some important victories amid…
- Policy Analysis
LebanonIdentity Politics and SectarianizationSaudi Arabia’s Third “Shock and Awe” Move in Lebanon
Nov 9, 2021Joe MacaronOn October 29th, Riyadh cut diplomatic ties with Beirut and suspended Lebanon’s imports into Saudi Arabia. These actions were aimed to force the resignation of…
- Policy Analysis
North AfricaConflicts and Conflict ResolutionWestern Sahara Figures Prominently in Algeria-Morocco Tensions
Nov 4, 2021Hasni Abidi Aboubakr JamaiAlgeria’s Reasons for Its Dispute with MoroccoHasni Abidi is Senior Lecturer at Geneva University and Director of the Centre d’Étude et de Recherche sur le Mon…
- Policy Analysis
Saudi ArabiaRegional Relations and GeopoliticsThe Limits of Saudi-Iranian Détente
Oct 29, 2021Daniel BrumbergDuring his years in the Nixon White House in the 1970s, former Secretary of State Henry Kissinger sought to manage the US-Soviet rivalry by creating arenas of …
- Policy Analysis
JordanRegional Relations and GeopoliticsJordan: Uptick in Diplomacy amid Pandora Papers Revelations
Oct 20, 2021Gregory AftandilianRevelations in the so-called Pandora Papers about King Abdullah II’s substantial real estate acquisitions of luxury homes in the United States and United Kingd…
- Policy Analysis
TurkeySecurity and DefenseDrumbeats of Turkey’s Next Military Invasion of Syria
Oct 20, 2021Mustafa GurbuzTurkish officials continue to repeat their warning that a military operation in northern Syria may be imminent, blaming both Washington and Moscow for not fulf…
- Policy Analysis
LebanonDemocracy and GovernanceForeign Influence in Lebanon and the Third Miqati Premiership
Oct 13, 2021Joe MacaronFor the third time in 16 years, Prime Minister Najib Miqati comes to office as a consensus candidate in a country with deep divisions within the Lebanese polit…
- Policy Analysis
Palestine/IsraelRegional Relations and GeopoliticsThe Erbil Conference: Iraq Rejects Normalizing with Israel
Oct 12, 2021Abdulwahab Al-QassabOn September 24th, some 300 Iraqi tribal and political leaders, mostly from Iraq’s six Sunni-majority governorates, met at a conference in Erbil, capital of th…
- Policy Analysis
Justice, Equality, and Human RightsA “Crisis of Relevance”: UN Failures in the MENA Region
Oct 5, 2021Yara M. AsiOn September 21, 2021, in front of the same green marble tile where many of his predecessors and other prominent world leaders have spoken, US President Joe Bi…
- Viewpoint
SyriaRegional Relations and GeopoliticsSyria’s Return to the Arab League Is Imminent
Oct 5, 2021Imad K. HarbA decade after the start of the Syrian revolution against authoritarian rule and the suspension of Syria’s membership in the League of Arab States, the country…
- Policy Analysis
EgyptSecurity and DefenseGrowing Relations between Egypt and Russia: Strategic Alliance or Marriage of Convenience?
Sep 27, 2021Khalil Al-AnaniOn August 22nd, Egypt’s Minister of Defense and Military Production Mohammad Zaki made a trip to Russia with a high-level military delegation. Zaki attended th…
- Policy Analysis
The Arabian Peninsula and The GulfRegional Relations and GeopoliticsA New Strategic Architecture Is Emerging in the Gulf
Sep 24, 2021Imad K. HarbAs the Gulf crisis of 2017 recedes into memory, following the reconciliation in January at the “solidarity and stability” summit in Saudi Arabia’s al-Ula on th…
- Policy Analysis
IranRegional Relations and GeopoliticsIran’s Hard-liners Pursue a Complex Resistance Strategy
Sep 23, 2021Daniel BrumbergWhile the election of Ebrahim Raisi to the Iranian presidency and the appointment of Hossein Amir-Abdollahian as foreign minister signal a clear victory for th…
- Policy Analysis
SyriaConflicts and Conflict ResolutionSouthwestern Syria Tests US-Russia Cooperation
Sep 22, 2021Joe MacaronThe US-Russian agreement of July 2017 that led to a fragile stability in southwestern Syria has recently unraveled, testing President Joe Biden’s approach in S…
- Policy Analysis
Saudi ArabiaRegional Relations and GeopoliticsA Saudi-Iranian Rapprochement Still Has a Long Way to Go
Sep 21, 2021Gregory AftandilianTalks in Baghdad between officials of Saudi Arabia and Iran, which have been held periodically since April, have fueled speculation that these two regional pow…
- Policy Analysis
IranRegional Relations and GeopoliticsIran Prepares for a New “Great Game” in Afghanistan
Sep 2, 2021Daniel BrumbergUntil the horrific August 26 attack outside Kabul’s Hamid Karzai International Airport, Iran’s bottom line on a new Afghan political order was in fact similar …
- Policy Analysis
IraqRegional Relations and GeopoliticsKadhimi Tries to Boost His Domestic Standing
Sep 1, 2021Imad K. HarbAs a basic principle, foreign policy serves as an extension of a country’s domestic politics and an instrument wielded by policy-makers to enhance their domest…
- Policy Analysis
TurkeyRegional Relations and GeopoliticsTurkey’s Relentless Bid for Afghanistan
Aug 31, 2021Mustafa GurbuzThe Taliban’s astonishing seizure of all of Afghanistan dashed the Turkish government’s earlier hope to take charge of Kabul Airport. Turkey’s President Recep …
- Policy Analysis
TunisiaRegional Relations and GeopoliticsRisky Business: Kais Saied’s Regional Alliances
Aug 20, 2021Daniel BrumbergThree weeks after President Kais Saied used Article 80 of the constitution to impose what can be called a ‘state of exceptionalism,’ Tunisians are waiting for …
- Policy Analysis
EgyptEnergy and EconomicsWill Egypt Live with GERD as a Bitter Reality?
Aug 19, 2021Khalil Al-AnaniOn July 19, Ethiopia announced that it had completed the second filling of the Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam (GERD). This unilateral step had been rejected b…
- Policy Analysis
Palestine/IsraelRegional Relations and GeopoliticsHamas and Its Regional Role Post-Gaza War
Jul 21, 2021Joe MacaronAs the Palestinian Authority, with Fatah at its core, is struggling to redefine its legitimacy and mandate, Hamas is emerging as a key player in the post-Gaza …
- Policy Analysis
Palestine/IsraelRegional Relations and GeopoliticsMoroccan Normalization with Israel: Temporary Deal or Permanent Peace?
Jul 8, 2021Khalil Al-AnaniOn June 16, 2021, King Mohammed VI of Morocco sent a congratulatory letter to Israel’s new prime minister, Naftali Bennett. This might not have been surprising…
- Viewpoint
Saudi ArabiaRegional Relations and GeopoliticsIs a Saudi-Emirati Rift on the Horizon?
Jul 7, 2021Imad K. HarbThe Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) appears to be approaching another unwelcome rift, this time between its two most vocal and influential members, Saudi Arabia…
- Policy Analysis
Regional Relations and GeopoliticsUS-Russian Cooperation in the Middle East after the Biden-Putin Summit
Jun 24, 2021Joe MacaronThe June 16 summit between President Joe Biden and his Russian counterpart, Vladimir Putin, was meant to defuse tensions between the United States and Russia, …
- Policy Analysis
EgyptRegional Relations and GeopoliticsExplaining Egypt’s Role during the Gaza War
Jun 3, 2021Khalil Al-AnaniOn May 21, 2021, a cease-fire agreement was reached between Israel and Hamas after an 11-day military confrontation. Egypt played a vital role in securing the …
- Policy Analysis
SyriaUS Foreign PolicyThe Biden Administration and the GCC Rapprochement with Damascus
May 27, 2021Joe MacaronWith Syrian President Bashar al-Assad on his way to a fourth term in the Syrian presidential election held this week, Moscow is expected to resume its diplomat…
- Policy Analysis
IranRegional Relations and GeopoliticsIran Plays a Diplomatically Cautious (and Smart) Game on Gaza
May 22, 2021Daniel BrumbergIt’s not every day that Hamas leaders openly plead for Tehran’s support. But this is apparently what happened when, as the battle between Gaza’s militant grou…
- Policy Analysis
Saudi ArabiaRegional Relations and GeopoliticsContingencies Undergird Saudi Foreign Policy
May 18, 2021Kristian Coates UlrichsenA flurry of diplomatic outreach involving Iran, Syria, and Turkey, and a continuing warming of relations with other Gulf countries, have sparked questions over…
- Policy Analysis
Palestine/IsraelUS Foreign PolicyWill the Natanz Incident Produce Maximum Diplomacy?
Apr 23, 2021Daniel BrumbergJust two days after what appeared to be an Israeli-backed sabotage of Iran’s Natanz enrichment facilities, The Washington Post’s editorial board declared that …
- Policy Analysis
LebanonIdentity Politics and SectarianizationHezbollah in Moscow: Russia Flexes Its Diplomatic Muscles
Apr 14, 2021Joe MacaronIn a medium-sized van with no bodyguards, on a rainy March 15, 2021, a Hezbollah delegation quietly walked into the Russian Foreign Ministry building in Moscow…
- Policy Analysis
TurkeyRegional Relations and GeopoliticsTurkish-Egyptian Reconciliation Efforts Echo a Shifting Regional Order
Mar 26, 2021Daniel BrumbergOver the past month, Turkey has taken steps to restore diplomatic relations with Egypt. That President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan has spearheaded this effort is para…
- Policy Analysis
EgyptRegional Relations and GeopoliticsEgyptian-Saudi Relations: Strategic Ties with Some Political Strains
Feb 9, 2021Gregory AftandilianEgypt and Saudi Arabia continue to be strategic partners in the Middle East, buoyed by shared interests and certain threat perceptions. Saudi Arabia values Egy…
- Policy Analysis
EgyptRegional Relations and GeopoliticsEgypt’s Changing policy in Libya: Opportunities and Challenges
Jan 21, 2021Khalil Al-AnaniOn December 27, 2020, a high-ranking Egyptian diplomatic and security delegation visited the Libyan capital of Tripoli to hold talks with the United Nations-ba…
- Policy Analysis
Palestine/IsraelConflicts and Conflict ResolutionWhere Can Palestinian Leaders Turn as Gulf Arabs Turn Away?
Oct 15, 2020Yousef MunayyerThe recent normalization agreements between the United Arab Emirates and Bahrain with Israel have sent shock waves throughout the Arab and Muslim worlds and ha…
- Policy Analysis
Regional Relations and GeopoliticsThe Arab League’s Many Failures
Oct 8, 2020Abdulwahab Al-Qassab Khalil E. Jahshan Tamara Kharroub Imad K. Harb Radwan Ziadeh Nabeel A. Khoury Sheila CarapicoOver its 75-year history, the 22-member League of Arab States (LAS) has declined as an organization—from one that represents and pushes for collective, purpose…
- Policy Analysis
LebanonRegional Relations and GeopoliticsThe French Initiative in Lebanon: Endgame and Challenges
Sep 16, 2020Joe MacaronFrench President Emmanuel Macron has been leading a charm offensive in Lebanon since the August 4th Beirut explosion as Paris seeks to reinvigorate its role in…
- Policy Analysis
JordanRegional Relations and GeopoliticsEgypt-Iraq-Jordan Alliance Tries to Change Middle East Dynamics
Sep 16, 2020Curtis R. RyanOn August 25, 2020, the leaders of Egypt, Iraq, and Jordan met in Amman for the third in a succession of meetings marking ever-closer relations between the thr…
- Policy Analysis
SyriaRegional Relations and GeopoliticsRussian-Turkish-Iranian Cross-Purposes on Syria’s Future
Sep 8, 2020Daniel BrumbergOn August 24, the United Nations-sponsored Syrian Constitutional Committee meetings reconvened in Geneva. UN Envoy Geir Peterson, the chair of the meeting, dec…
- Policy Analysis
LebanonRegional Relations and GeopoliticsAfter the Beirut Blast: Hezbollah and Iran Walk a Tricky Line
Aug 26, 2020Daniel BrumbergDaniel Brumberg argues that Hezbollah and Iran are vested in preserving the current political system in Lebanon whose confessional institutions enable the part…
- Policy Analysis
LevantRegional Relations and GeopoliticsLebanon’s Other Problem: Neutrality in Regional Affairs
Aug 3, 2020Imad K. HarbExamining Lebanon’s traditional neutrality in regional affairs, Imad K. Harb writes that Hezbollah’s push to follow Iran’s policies is placing the country in a…
- Policy Analysis
EgyptRegional Relations and GeopoliticsThe Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam and Egypt’s Military Options
Jul 30, 2020Charles W. DunneWith talks between Egypt and Ethiopia failing to break the impasse over the Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam, Charles W. Dunne evaluates Cairo’s military option…
- Policy Analysis
TurkeyRegional Relations and GeopoliticsTurkey’s Activist Regional Policies Are a Double-Edged Sword
Jul 21, 2020Gregory AftandilianGregory Aftandilian explains that although Turkey has scored points in the Arab world with its support for the Palestinians, its activist posture and intervent…
- Policy Analysis
IranRegional Relations and GeopoliticsIran’s Hard-liners Grapple with the Trap of Securitizing the State
Jul 13, 2020Daniel BrumbergDaniel Brumberg argues that Iran's hard-liners have savored the victory of last February's parliamentary elections and are now preparing for the 2021 president…
- Policy Analysis
EgyptRegional Relations and GeopoliticsUnderstanding Egypt’s Strategy in Libya
Jul 8, 2020Khalil Al-AnaniKhalil al-Anani discounts the chances for a direct Egyptian military intervention in Libya despite the dangers of instability and chaos there and their impact …
- Policy Analysis
Regional Relations and GeopoliticsThe Middle East Settles in for a Long, Hot, and Dangerous Summer
Jun 24, 2020Daniel BrumbergDaniel Brumberg examines the conditions that could make this summer a dangerous period in the Middle East as contentious issues weigh heavily on competing regi…
- Policy Analysis
SyriaEnergy and EconomicsUS-Russian Competition and the M4 Highway in Syria
Jun 23, 2020Joe MacaronJoe Macaron argues that in Syria, implementing the Caesar Act sanctions and opening the east-west M4 Highway reflect intensified US-Russian competition while t…
- Policy Analysis
JordanConflicts and Conflict ResolutionThe Israeli Annexation Plan and Jordan’s West Bank Moment
Jun 3, 2020Joe MacaronJoe Macaron argues that as Netanyahu makes plans to annex parts of the occupied West Bank, Jordan faces difficult choices in appeasing domestic critics and pre…
- Policy Analysis
JordanThe GCCJordan Maneuvers in GCC Politics to Protect Its Interests
May 27, 2020Gregory AftandilianDespite its heavy dependence on the GCC for economic aid and employment for its workforce, Jordan has been able to pursue political positions not always in syn…
- Policy Analysis
SyriaDemocracy and GovernanceA Fracture That Will Not Threaten the Assad Regime in Syria
May 18, 2020Radwan ZiadehRadwan Ziadeh discounts the long-term political repercussions of the Assad-Makhlouf dispute and writes that if the regime gets in serious trouble, the cousins …
- Policy Analysis
IranRegional Relations and GeopoliticsIran Is Running a Custom-Made Strategy in the Levant
May 18, 2020Joe MacaronAlthough economic pressures are forcing the Iranian regime to cut its losses in the Levant, it would be a mistake for the Trump Administration and its allies t…
- Policy Analysis
IranUS Foreign PolicyWorrisome American Response to Iran in the Gulf
May 5, 2020Abdulwahab Al-QassabAbdulwahab Al-Qassab examines the muted US response to Iranian provocations in the Arabian Gulf, surmising that it reflects poorly on the reputation of the Uni…
- Viewpoint
YemenConflicts and Conflict ResolutionA Unified Yemen May Soon Cease to Exist
Apr 27, 2020Imad K. HarbWith President Hadi too weak to respond to the self-rule declaration by the UAE- supported Southern Transitional Council, and Saudi Arabia too economically tro…
