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  • Policy Analysis
    LebanonConflicts and Conflict Resolution

    Assessing the Latest Conflagrations between Israel and Hezbollah

    Sep 11, 2019Joe Macaron

    The latest conflagrations between Israel and Hezbollah were an attempt to dictate new rules of engagement. Nevertheless, both sides appear to be committed to t…

  • Policy Analysis
    IranIdentity Politics and Sectarianization

    Trump’s Sanctions on Hezbollah Threaten Lebanon’s Stability

    Jul 30, 2019Nabeel A. Khoury

    Current conditions in the Middle East and American sanctions against Hezbollah could upset the delicate balance of power in Lebanon and potentially lead to an …

  • Policy Analysis
    IranIdentity Politics and Sectarianization

    The Symbolism behind the Latest US Sanctions against Hezbollah

    Jul 17, 2019Joe Macaron

    The latest US sanctions against Hezbollah--and their impact on domestic Lebanese politics--are largely symbolic. In reality, the Trump Administration may have …

  • Policy Analysis
    IranInternational Law

    On the Lebanese-Israeli Border, US and Iran Are Negotiating

    Jun 5, 2019Joe Macaron

    A breakthrough in Beirut is helping American mediation in the land and maritime border dispute between Lebanon and Israel, but many obstacles still prevent a q…

  • Policy Analysis
    LebanonDemocracy and Governance

    Avoiding Punishing Lebanon Because of Hezbollah

    Apr 16, 2019Khaldon Roukie

    The United States continues to ostracize and pressure Hezbollah in Lebanon which is inadvertently helping the party grow and become more influential in the cou…

  • Policy Analysis
    LebanonDemocracy and Governance

    The Trickiness of Syria’s Return to the Arab League

    Mar 29, 2019Imad K. Harb

    It is important for Arab states to continue to withhold Syria’s membership until Damascus agrees to a political process that leads to a transition from Assad’s…

  • Policy Analysis
    LebanonDemocracy and Governance

    Syria’s Demographic Changes Buttress Assad’s Authoritarianism

    Mar 1, 2019Radwan Ziadeh

    The Syrian regime violated international prohibitions on the conduct of war by forcing millions of people to flee their homes in order to spur demographic chan…

  • Policy Analysis
    LebanonIdentity Politics and Sectarianization

    Lebanon’s New Government: No Need for Washington to Panic

    Feb 6, 2019Joe Macaron

    Lebanon’s new cabinet is not that different from the previous one. An American overreaction to Hezbollah’s role in it is likely to strengthen the party’s hold.

  • Policy Analysis
    LebanonEnergy and Economics

    The Eastern Mediterranean Gas Forum Reinforces Current Regional Dynamics

    Jan 25, 2019Joe Macaron

    The recently announced Eastern Mediterranean Gas Forum is not likely to aid cooperation or economic integration because the policies of its member states mirro…

  • Policy Analysis
    LebanonDemocracy and Governance

    The Arab Rehabilitation of the Assad Regime

    Jan 16, 2019Radwan Ziadeh

    Assad will be able to regain his political legitimacy after winning his battle militarily only if he rehabilitates his regime’s standing in the Arab world.

  • Policy Analysis
    LebanonDemocracy and Governance

    Cabinet Stalemate in Lebanon May Be Delaying a Political Confrontation

    Sep 24, 2018Joe Macaron

    Four months after Lebanese Prime Minister Saad Hariri was designated to lead a national unity government on May 24, there appears to be no end in sight for the…

  • Policy Analysis
    JordanMigrants, Refugees, and IDPs

    Syrian Refugees in Jordan and Lebanon: The Politics of their Return

    Jun 28, 2018Joe Macaron

    Overwhelmed by their own economic woes, Jordan and Lebanon are employing different tactics to achieve the same objective: to secure the return of Syrian refuge…

  • Viewpoint
    LebanonIdentity Politics and Sectarianization

    Lebanon’s Elections Provide No Serious Change

    May 10, 2018Imad K. Harb

    Lebanon has just finished a feverish election campaign for its 128-seat Chamber of Deputies. This round followed a nine-year period in which this basic democra…

  • Policy Analysis
    LebanonDemocracy and Governance

    Lebanon’s Elections to Rearrange the Country’s Political Landscape

    May 3, 2018Joe Macaron

    For the first time since 2009, Lebanese will elect a new parliament on May 6, a decisive election that will redraw the representation of powers of the ruling c…

  • Policy Analysis
    LebanonDemocracy and Governance

    Where Is Syria Headed?

    Apr 3, 2018Radwan Ziadeh

    The scenarios for Syria’s future after the fall of Eastern Ghouta now look very different from those drawn in 2012 or 2013, which depicted a peaceful political…

  • Policy Analysis
    LebanonEnergy and Economics

    A Saudi Comeback to Lebanese Politics?

    Mar 14, 2018Joe Macaron

    Nearly 100 days after his mysterious “captivity” in the Saudi capital, Lebanese Prime Minister Saad al-Hariri visited Riyadh again on February 28. The timing c…

  • Policy Analysis
    LebanonConflicts and Conflict Resolution

    Like Quicksand, Many Issues Threaten to Engulf Lebanon

    Feb 13, 2018Imad K. Harb

    As it approaches the highly anticipated round of legislative elections on May 6, Lebanon finds itself bereft of a cohesive political center that can withstand …

  • Policy Analysis
    LebanonDemocracy and Governance

    US Curbs Saudi Arabia’s Surge in Lebanon

    Nov 14, 2017Joe Macaron

    Clear statements from the White House and the Department of State appear to have curbed the Saudi surge in Beirut and toned down Riyadh’s rhetoric against the …

  • Policy Analysis
    LebanonDemocracy and Governance

    Will US, Saudi Pressure Deter Hezbollah in Lebanon?

    Oct 12, 2017Joe Macaron

    Given the current status quo in Lebanon, the best American and Saudi pressure can do is to make the country’s political environment unbearable for Hezbollah.

  • Policy Analysis
    LebanonConflicts and Conflict Resolution

    Stretched over Two Borders, Hezbollah is Making Israel Anxious

    Aug 8, 2017Joe Macaron

    In the long run, the risks of confrontation between Israel and Hezbollah may largely depend on how the US-Russia deal will unfold in southern Syria.

  • Policy Analysis
    LebanonDemocracy and Governance

    Hariri Comes to Washington in the Shadow of Hezbollah’s Wars

    Jul 25, 2017Joe Macaron

    The measure of success for Hariri’s visit to Washington is his ability to convince US officials that the status quo is the best Lebanon can do considering the …

  • Policy Analysis
    LebanonDemocracy and Governance

    Once Again, Lebanon Faces the Ghost of a Political Vacuum

    May 17, 2017Joe Macaron

    Lebanon’s sectarian consensus rule raises questions about the functionality of the country’s political system. An agreement on its new electoral law is needed …

  • Policy Analysis
    LebanonDemocracy and Governance

    Lebanon’s Oligarchy Consolidates Control over the Security Establishment

    Mar 22, 2017Joe Macaron

    After an impasse of nearly four years, on March 8 the Lebanese government announced a sectarian quota deal to fill the security establishment's leadership posi…

  • Policy Analysis
    LebanonUS Foreign Policy

    The Trump Administration’s Hezbollah Problem

    Mar 2, 2017Imad K. Harb

    As paramilitary organizations go, Lebanon’s Hezbollah has achieved resounding success since its establishment by the revolutionary Iranian regime, which was ne…

  • Policy Analysis
    LebanonDemocracy and Governance

    Aoun in Riyadh: A Test for Lebanon’s Foreign Policy

    Jan 25, 2017Joe Macaron

    In November 2014, General Michel Aoun told the Lebanese daily newspaper, As-Safir, that the late Saudi foreign minister Saud al-Faisal was behind a veto to ele…

  • Policy Analysis
    LebanonDemocracy and Governance

    The Misplaced Hope of Lebanon’s Presidential Election

    Dec 1, 2016Imad K. Harb

    Developments in Lebanon during November 2016 made it increasingly evident that the election as president of Michel Aoun, former general and leader of the Refor…

  • Policy Analysis
    LebanonDemocracy and Governance

    End of Stalemate: A Loose Power-Sharing Agreement in Lebanon

    Oct 28, 2016Joe Macaron

    After a 30-month impasse that paralyzed the country’s governing institutions and questioned the legitimacy of the confessional system, the Lebanese Parliament …

  • Policy Analysis
    IranConflicts and Conflict Resolution

    Hezbollah, Iran, and the Politics of Obstructionism

    Sep 23, 2016Imad K. Harb

    On September 7, Lebanon’s Parliament failed for the forty-third time to convene a session to elect a president. Since the expiration of former president Michel…

  • Policy Analysis
    LebanonDemocracy and Governance

    New Rules of Engagement for US-Hezbollah Arm Wrestling in Lebanon

    Jul 6, 2016Joe Macaron

    Lebanon is the only country in the Middle East where US policy is actively seeking to deter Iran’s regional influence. Washington is directly targeting Hezboll…

  • Policy Analysis
    LebanonDemocracy and Governance

    What Municipal Elections Mean for Lebanon

    May 17, 2016Joe Macaron

    Lebanon is holding this month municipal elections across the country, the first electoral test since the start of the Syrian war. The ruling traditional partie…

  • Policy Analysis
    LebanonIdentity Politics and Sectarianization

    Saudi Arabia Goes on the Offensive against Hezbollah

    Mar 8, 2016Joe Macaron

    Saudi Arabia’s explicit identification of the Iranian-backed Hezbollah as a strategic threat is a tipping point in the underlying tensions between both sides. …