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- Policy Analysis
LevantConflicts and Conflict ResolutionBeyond the Trump-Erdoğan Meeting: The Rise of Eurasianists and Turkey’s Syria Policy
May 23, 2017Mustafa GurbuzA structural change in Turkey’s political system is gradually forcing serious changes in the country’s foreign policy toward Syria, the Gulf countries, Russia,…
- Policy Analysis
LebanonDemocracy and GovernanceOnce Again, Lebanon Faces the Ghost of a Political Vacuum
May 17, 2017Joe MacaronLebanon’s sectarian consensus rule raises questions about the functionality of the country’s political system. An agreement on its new electoral law is needed …
- Policy Analysis
IraqIdentity Politics and SectarianizationIraq Beyond the Islamic State
May 17, 2017Charles W. DunneAfter the defeat of ISIL and the reconquest of Mosul, how will Iraq’s government address the lingering issues of national identity, minorities, and Kurdish asp…
- Policy Analysis
Saudi ArabiaConflicts and Conflict ResolutionCautionary Notes to the GCC about Trump’s Visit
May 15, 2017Imad K. HarbPresident Trump’s erratic behavior and lack of knowledge and his administration’s institutional problems require great caution from GCC leaders when he visits …
- Policy Analysis
LevantConflicts and Conflict ResolutionAbbas’s Inconclusive Washington Visit and Netanyahu’s Tactics
May 9, 2017Yousef MunayyerThe outcome of President Abbas’s visit to Washington was inconclusive but it was a reminder that President Trump is an unpredictable partner in peace.
- Policy Analysis
IranDemocracy and GovernanceChallenges Facing Iran’s Presidential Contenders
May 9, 2017Imad K. HarbIran’s presidential candidates are acutely aware that if elected, they would have to hew to the wishes and ultimate desires of the Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei.
- Policy Analysis
LevantConflicts and Conflict ResolutionThe Middle East in Trump’s First 100 Days in Office
May 3, 2017Joe MacaronProjecting the image of political stability and steadiness in Washington is paramount for US policy in the Middle East. There is no room for second-guessing th…
- Policy Analysis
LevantConflicts and Conflict ResolutionPresident Abbas Spins the Wheel in Washington
May 2, 2017Imad K. HarbRealities on the ground in the occupied Palestinian territories and an obvious pro-Israel American bias dash any hope for an equitable peace deal from the Trum…
- Policy Analysis
North AfricaDemocracy and GovernanceTunisians Want a Better Economy and a Democratic System
May 1, 2017Imad K. HarbForty-nine percent of Tunisians consider improving the economy the topmost priority while 20 percent think that security is. An overwhelming majority want a de…
- Policy Analysis
LevantConflicts and Conflict ResolutionIs Enforced Displacement the New Reality in Syria?
Apr 28, 2017Radwan ZiadehIt is feared that forced displacement of Syrians as a way of protecting vulnerable civilians may result in creating pure sectarian enclaves, making partition e…
- Policy Analysis
IranConflicts and Conflict ResolutionTrump Ponders Renewing America’s Longest War in Afghanistan
Apr 26, 2017Joe MacaronThe Pentagon has in recent weeks flexed its muscles in Afghanistan but the US continues to navigate a difficult environment in that country as the Taliban rema…
- Policy Analysis
LevantMigrants, Refugees, and IDPsWill Erdogan’s Victory Usher Dramatic Changes in Turkish Foreign Policy?
Apr 25, 2017Mustafa GurbuzSince becoming Turkey’s president in July 2014, Recep Tayyip Erdoğan has pursued a protracted campaign to win constitutional changes that would grant him more …
- Research Paper
MoroccoConflicts and Conflict ResolutionThe Four-Approach Dilemma of the Western Sahara Conflict
Apr 25, 2017Mohammed CherkaouiWhile awaiting the perennial renewal of the mandate for the UN monitoring force (MINURSO, or Mission for the Referendum in Western Sahara) in Western Sahara at…
- Policy Analysis
LevantDemocracy and GovernanceThe Quandary of Bad Governance in the Arab World
Apr 24, 2017Imad K. HarbPolling in the Arab world shows that Arabs in general have little confidence in their civilian institutions and believe that their governments are not doing en…
- Policy Analysis
IranConflicts and Conflict ResolutionNext Challenge for Trump: The Islamic Republic of Iran
Apr 24, 2017Charles W. DunneAs the new administration of President Donald J. Trump struggles to find its foreign policy footing, with early tests emerging in the Middle East, Asia, Europe…
- Policy Analysis
LevantConflicts and Conflict ResolutionIsrael’s “New” Settlement Policy Ploy
Apr 21, 2017Yousef MunayyerTo reach a peace deal between Israelis and Palestinians, President Trump has to press the former to end violations of international law and settlement building.
- Policy Analysis
IranConflicts and Conflict ResolutionDeterring Iran in Yemen: Will the United States Join the Hodeida Operation?
Apr 19, 2017Joe MacaronThe United States debates whether it wants to assist in evicting the Houthis out of Yemen's Hodeida.
- Policy Analysis
LevantIdentity Politics and SectarianizationPerceptions of ISIL in the Arab World
Apr 14, 2017Radwan ZiadehArab autocrats can no longer argue that Arabs are satisfied with authoritarian rule. New social movements have emerged after the Arab Spring advocating for hum…
- Policy Analysis
LevantDemocracy and GovernanceThe Trump Administration’s Complicated Middle East Map
Apr 12, 2017Charles W. DunneAs the 2016 US presidential campaign wound its way through a long string of primaries, fundraisers, and an almost unimaginable marathon of candidate debates, d…
- Policy Analysis
LevantConflicts and Conflict ResolutionA Dramatic American Change on Syria, but Will It Be Consequential?
Apr 7, 2017Imad K. HarbAs a limited attack on a Syrian military base, the American operation is not likely to rise to the status of being a game changer in Syria.
- Policy Analysis
LevantConflicts and Conflict ResolutionThe Outsider Diplomat: Tillerson Strives to Define his Role
Apr 6, 2017Joe MacaronAfter two months in office, Tillerson is gradually coping in his new job; his success or failure will indeed have a significant impact on US foreign policy in …
- Policy Analysis
LevantConflicts and Conflict ResolutionThe Turkey-Russia Rift Heralds an Autonomous Kurdistan in Syria
Apr 5, 2017Mustafa GurbuzAs the Syrian civil war grinds on into a seventh year, a Kurdish autonomous region controlled by the People’s Protection Units becomes more probable in norther…
- Policy Analysis
The Arabian Peninsula and The GulfSecurity and DefenseThe US Military Posture in the Gulf: Future Possibilities
Apr 4, 2017Imad K. HarbSince former President Jimmy Carter announced the establishment of the Rapid Deployment Joint Task Force in the Middle East in 1980—which later became Central …
- Policy Analysis
IranConflicts and Conflict ResolutionGenocide in Mosul: The Repercussions of Targeting Civilians
Apr 4, 2017Abdulwahab Al-QassabThere have been widespread allegations that the destruction of Mosul, the major Sunni Iraqi city after Baghdad, is the aim of the Iranian-backed Shiite militia…
- Research Paper
The Army and Political Power in the Arab Context: Theoretical Problems
Mar 31, 2017A significant question has arisen about how, over recent decades, military coups have stopped occurring in states considered to be coup countries, such as Syri…
- Policy Analysis
Egypt’s Fragile Stability: Erosion of the Rule of Law and Institutions of Governance
Mar 30, 2017This paper addresses the erosion of the rule of law and institutions of governance in Egypt by discussing the significant expansion of legal repression, the cl…
- Policy Analysis
The US at the UN and the Apartheid Report on Palestine
Mar 29, 2017Yousef MunayyerEarlier this month and for the first time in the history of the United Nations, the Economic and Social Commission for Western Asia (ESCWA)—a UN institution—is…
- Policy Analysis
The Last of a Dying Breed: The 2016 Referendum on Clintonism
Mar 29, 2017Marcus MontgomeryFor many young voters, the Democratic Party’s nomination of Hillary Clinton for the US presidency in 2016 seemed surprising, considering she was a problematic …
- Policy Analysis
Why Is the Battle against ISIL not Going Well?
Mar 28, 2017Radwan ZiadehOn March 22nd, the foreign ministers of the Global Coalition to defeat the Islamic State in Iraq and the Levant (ISIL) concluded their meeting in Washington, D…
- Policy Analysis
Syria Peace Talks in Geneva: A Road to Nowhere
Mar 27, 2017Radwan ZiadehOn March 3, 2017, the United Nations’ Special Envoy for Syria, Staffan de Mistura, concluded the last round of Syria peace negotiations in Geneva by saying tha…
- Policy Analysis
The American-Russian Strategic Competition in the Arab Middle East
Mar 23, 2017Abdulwahab Al-QassabThe Historical ContextThe presence of global powers in the Arab Middle East region is not new. American and Russian involvement goes back to the 18th and 19th …
- Policy Analysis
The Difficult Tasks for the Arab League
Mar 22, 2017Imad K. HarbAs the Arab League limps through its eighth decade, its problems increase in number and intensity while the Arab state system continues to be burdened with pol…
- Policy Analysis
LebanonDemocracy and GovernanceLebanon’s Oligarchy Consolidates Control over the Security Establishment
Mar 22, 2017Joe MacaronAfter an impasse of nearly four years, on March 8 the Lebanese government announced a sectarian quota deal to fill the security establishment's leadership posi…
- Policy Analysis
Turkey-Europe Tensions: Where are They Headed?
Mar 21, 2017Mustafa GurbuzThe escalation of tensions between Turkish and Dutch authorities seems to have played well in domestic political calculations in Turkey and the Netherlands. Tu…
- Policy Analysis
The Arab World after ISIL’s Defeat
Current efforts to defeat the Islamic State in Iraq and the Levant (ISIL) will, with time and sustained commitment, eventually lead to the physical destruction…
- Policy Analysis
Turnover: What Are the Implications of Recent and Upcoming Changes in Hamas?
Mar 15, 2017Yousef MunayyerBackgroundSince its establishment in the 1980s, the Palestinian Islamic Resistance Movement, or Hamas, has increasingly become an important player in domestic …
- Policy Analysis
Obstacles to President Trump’s Options on Iran
Mar 14, 2017Imad K. HarbAlmost two months into his presidency, Donald Trump has charted a clear path to tense relations between the United States and the Islamic Republic of Iran. Thi…
- Policy Analysis
Why Federalism Is a Bad Idea for Syria
Mar 13, 2017Radwan ZiadehIn the middle of the discussion about transition in Syria, Russia proposed the idea of a federal republic, according to deputy foreign minister Sergei Ryabkov.…
- Policy Analysis
Turkey-Iran Relations: A Sectarian Future?
Mar 8, 2017Mustafa GurbuzThe Syrian war and ensuing crisis in Iraq have put Turkey and Iran in an unprecedented sectarian rivalry. Competition over Iraqi Kurdistan will be a major test…
- Policy Analysis
J Street Annual Conference: “Defending Our Values: Fighting for Our Future”
Mar 8, 2017Roxanne PeruginoJ Street, the liberal left-of-center Jewish pro-peace, pro-Israel organization held its sixth annual conference at the end of February in Washington, DC. Over …
- Policy Analysis
Trump’s Defense Budget Militarizes US Foreign Policy
Mar 7, 2017Joe MacaronThe signature blueprint of any US president is the federal budget. Donald Trump is giving us an insight into how he views the world and what resources he inten…
- Policy Analysis
Regaining Western Mosul: Consequences and Implications
Mar 2, 2017Abdulwahab Al-Qassabimg { margin: 5px; padding: 5px;}Since October 2016, the Iraqi government, supported by the US military, has waged one of its most difficult battles to…
- Policy Analysis
How Will Trump Run Washington’s Favorite Killing Machine?
Mar 2, 2017Joe MacaronIn 2016, US unmanned aerial vehicles (UAVs) dropped on average three bombs every 60 minutes in the global fight against radical extremists. Nothing defined Pre…
- Policy Analysis
The Trump Administration’s Hezbollah Problem
Mar 2, 2017Imad K. HarbAs paramilitary organizations go, Lebanon’s Hezbollah has achieved resounding success since its establishment by the revolutionary Iranian regime, which was ne…
- Policy Analysis
Netanyahu and Trump Chart New US-Israel Relationship
Feb 26, 2017Yousef MunayyerBackgroundOn February 15, 2017, Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu and President Donald Trump met in the White House for the first time since America’s …
- Policy Analysis
Democratization and Radicalization: Understanding Tunisia’s Model of Democratic Transition
Feb 21, 2017Tamara KharroubOn February 1, 2017, German police arrested a Tunisian asylum seeker suspected of recruiting for the Islamic State of Iraq and the Levant (ISIL) and planning a…
- Policy Analysis
Going Forward on Egyptian-American Relations
Feb 21, 2017Imad K. HarbEgypt recently marked the sixth anniversary of the resignation of former President Hosni Mubarak and his handover of power to the Supreme Council of the Armed …
- Policy Analysis
Libya after ISIL: What Will Trump Do?
Feb 15, 2017Joe MacaronIt is safe to say that at present, Libya might not be high on the agenda of President Donald Trump’s Administration. In December 2016, the Islamic State in Ira…
- Policy Analysis
General Flynn, We Hardly Knew You
Feb 15, 2017Roxanne PeruginoAfter serving only 24 days as President Donald Trump’s National Security Advisor, Lt. General Michael Flynn has resigned, leaving behind chaos within the Natio…
- Policy Analysis
Receiving Netanyahu, Trump Must Emphasize America’s Interests
Feb 14, 2017Imad K. HarbPrime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu comes to Washington this week to officially reset US-Israeli relations after the chill of the last few years of the Obama Adm…
- Policy AnalysisThe Arabian Peninsula and The GulfThe GCC
Developments in Yemen and American Strategic Calculations
Feb 8, 2017Imad K. HarbIt has been three years since Yemen’s National Dialogue Conference concluded its work to set the stage for a constitution for a six-region federated state. Thi…
- Policy Analysis
Iran and Trump’s Strategy in the Gulf Region: What’s Next?
Feb 8, 2017Abdulwahab Al-QassabIran’s recent launch of a medium range ballistic missile played to the Trump Administration’s expectations of Iranian behavior regarding strategic weaponry in …
- Policy Analysis
“America First” Will Compromise Homeland Security and Disrupt American Soft Power
Feb 7, 2017Mustafa GurbuzThe Trump Administration’s two promises—pursuing an “America first” policy and exterminating radical jihadism—require an investment in American soft power that…
- Policy Analysis
General Mattis and Iraq: Motivations and Apprehensions
Feb 3, 2017Abdulwahab Al-QassabThe appointment of retired US General James Mattis as Secretary of Defense comes during cautious times for both Iraqis and Americans. The Iraqis are anticipati…
- Policy Analysis
Netanyahu Unrestrained: The Trump Effect on Israeli Politics
Feb 3, 2017Yousef MunayyerBackgroundSince 2009, there have been two constants in the American-Israeli relationship: Barack Obama was President of the United States and Benjamin Netanyah…
- Policy Analysis
Jordan’s King Abdallah in Washington: ISIL and Jerusalem
Feb 1, 2017Joe MacaronIn what was described as a working visit, Jordan’s King Abdullah II arrived on January 30, 2017, and became the first Arab leader to come to Washington since t…
- Policy Analysis
Ten Days of Trump: Prospects for Democracy and Human Rights vis-à-vis the Arab World
Feb 1, 2017In his first 10 days in office, President Trump signed executive orders and made statements that greatly influence US foreign policy, from suspending refugee r…
- Policy Analysis
Strategic Costs of the Muslim Ban
Jan 30, 2017Imad K. HarbThe Trump Administration’s first week has clearly exposed both its limited depth in strategic thinking and, worse, its lack of commitment to US leadership arou…
- Policy Analysis
A World Between bin Laden and Breivik: Supremacist Ideologies Shaping the 21st Century
Jan 26, 2017Yousef MunayyerFrom Austria, Hungary, Poland, Switzerland, and elsewhere on the European continent, right-wing political parties are on the rise. Nationalism, protectionism, …
- Policy Analysis
Iraqi Kurdistan’s Bid for Independence: Challenges and Prospects
Jan 26, 2017Mustafa GurbuzMasoud Barzani, the leader of the Kurdistan Regional Government (KRG) in Iraqi Kurdistan, has expressed his expectation for “a big change” in US policy under P…
- Policy Analysis
Forget Paris. It Won’t be Hard
Jan 25, 2017Yousef MunayyerThe Paris Peace Conference of January 15, 2017, barely amounted to a singular blip on radar. Some 70 countries participated in what was among the largest inter…
- Policy Analysis
Syria and Iraq in the Age of Trump: Challenges to American Interests
Jan 25, 2017Imad K. HarbNow that the Trump Administration has taken over the reins of American diplomatic and military power, questions arise about how it intends to preserve America’…
- Policy Analysis
President Trump and the Republican Congress: Smooth Sailing or Choppy Waters?
Jan 25, 2017Roxanne PeruginoFor only the third time since 1929, the Republican Party will control the House, Senate and the White House and have the opportunity to choose a Supreme Court …
- Policy Analysis
Aoun in Riyadh: A Test for Lebanon’s Foreign Policy
Jan 25, 2017Joe MacaronIn November 2014, General Michel Aoun told the Lebanese daily newspaper, As-Safir, that the late Saudi foreign minister Saud al-Faisal was behind a veto to ele…
- Policy Analysis
Oman’s Needed Adjustment During the Trump Presidency
Jan 18, 2017Imad K. HarbThe Sultanate of Oman has arguably always been an outlier regarding unified Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) action since the organization’s establishment in 198…
- Policy Analysis
Turkish-Iraqi Relations: Old Trends and Future Possibilities
Jan 17, 2017Abdulwahab Al-QassabRelations between Iraq and Turkey have been cordial and cautious since Iraq became independent of Ottoman suzerainty after WWI, when British forces invaded and…
- Policy Analysis
The Battle for DNC Chair: Palestine and Democratic Party Politics after Trump’s Election
Jan 17, 2017Tamara Kharroub2016 was a tumultuous year for the Democratic Party. Democrats lost the White House, both houses of Congress, and a large number of gubernatorial races (two-th…
- Policy Analysis
Turkey at “the Gate” of Victory at Al-Bab: What’s Next?
Jan 12, 2017The New Year’s Eve attack in Istanbul represents a significant change in relations between Turkey and the Islamic State in Syria and the Levant (ISIL). Althoug…
- Policy Analysis
Washington Rebalancing Away from the Middle East? Realities and Difficulties
Jan 9, 2017Imad K. HarbIn a speech to the Australian parliament in November 2011, President Barack Obama declared that the Asia-Pacific region had become a “top priority” in US secur…
- Policy Analysis
Rafsanjani’s Death and Its Impact on Iran’s Political Bazaar
Jan 9, 2017Imad K. HarbThe death of former Iranian President Ali Akbar Hashemi Rafsanjani comes at a critical time in the Islamic Republic’s political history. As one of the founders…
- Policy Analysis
Recalculating Route: America and Israel on Divergent Paths
Jan 3, 2017Yousef MunayyerIn May 2016, I wrote that the Obama Administration should carefully weigh options for how to address the Israeli/Palestinian issue during its last months in of…
- Policy Analysis
US President-elect Donald J. Trump and his Foreign Policy Cabinet Choices: Focus on Middle East Issues
Dec 29, 2016In the last few weeks, President-elect Donald Trump has been building his team of senior officials. The team selected as his foreign policy appointees presents…
- Policy Analysis
After Aleppo: The Political and Regional Implications of the New Middle East “Troika”
Dec 28, 2016Joe MacaronSince August 2016, new regional power dynamics have been emerging in the wars in Syria. The trend has manifested itself in the fall of Aleppo and the December …
- Policy Analysis
Sidelining Asad: Questioning the Future of Russian-Iranian-Turkish Convergence in Syria
Dec 27, 2016Imad K. HarbThe battle of Aleppo has finally been decided in favor of the Syrian regime and its Russian, Iranian, and militia cohorts. But for all intents and purposes, th…
- Policy Analysis
UN Security Council Passes Resolution Against Israeli Settlements
Dec 23, 2016On Wednesday, December 21, 2016, Egypt circulated a draft resolution calling for an end to Israeli settlements and demanding Israel to “immediately and complet…
- Policy Analysis
Breaking Ground in Jerusalem
Dec 22, 2016Yousef MunayyerSome things are utterly predictable. The sun will always rise in the east, rain will always be wet, and US presidential candidates who promise to move the Amer…
