The astonishing victories of the Democratic Party in the November 3, 2026, midterm elections have rekindled hopes of curbing the Trump administration’s worst excesses of US foreign policy in the Middle East. A Democratic majority in the House and Senate offers new opportunities to use the legislative process to stymie the US-led war on Iran, restrict arms sales to Israel and the Gulf states, and impose greater scrutiny on the administration through congressional oversight and the Senate’s power to confirm presidential appointments. Progressives also see grounds for longer-term optimism in the election of candidates such as Abdul El-Sayed, whose victory in Michigan suggests that AIPAC’s influence over US politics may be waning.
Yet significant obstacles remain. Trump retains the presidential veto, while high energy prices have intensified the affordability crisis facing US households. Even if congressional pressure helps bring the war with Iran to an end, the conflict in Yemen may prove considerably more intractable. The extent to which the Democrats’ electoral success can be translated into substantive changes in US foreign policy remains uncertain.
In this Collective Analysis, Arab Center Washington DC invited its fellows to share their insights on how the midterm results will affect US foreign policy. Do the elections offer the prospect of a better future for the Middle East, or will the familiar politics of war and militarism prevail?
A Rebuke of Trumpism, But Democrats Face a Reckoning
Tamara Kharroub, Executive Director and Senior Fellow
In what many described as a “blue tsunami,” the Democrats gained control of the House and Senate—even flipping seats in traditionally Republican states like Kansas, South Carolina, and Texas for the first time in decades—and won key gubernatorial and state-level races. In the face of the US’s reckless wars and a worsening affordability crisis, bigotry and attacks on immigrant communities, widespread corruption and growing corporate influence, assaults on press freedoms and democratic institutions, and continued support for Israel’s policies of ethnic cleansing and regional aggression, the American people chose change. President Trump urged voters to act as though he were on the ballot, and that’s exactly what they did. The results represent a referendum on Trump and a clear rejection of his agenda. The 2026 midterm vote was largely driven by economic frustration, dissatisfaction with Trump, and significant shifts among younger voters, independents, and key minority groups toward the Democratic Party.
But while Democrats came together in rejecting Trumpism, divisions within the party are deeper than ever, and the impact of this electoral shift on policy is less clear. Three milestones will determine what change is possible. First, the two months before the 120th Congress is sworn in will be critical, as Trump and congressional Republicans will rush to try to cement their policy priorities and potentially take steps to preempt and constrain the incoming Democratic majority. Second, over the next two years, Democrats will face the challenge of the president’s veto power, which Trump has already threatened to use. Although Democrats lack the two-thirds supermajority needed to override a veto, they can use their congressional majorities to conduct oversight, investigate allegations of corruption involving the president and his associates, and serve as a check on the administration. Whether this period produces legislative gridlock or a degree of bipartisan cooperation remains to be seen. Thus, the third and most consequential battle lies ahead in the 2028 presidential election. The Democratic tent currently includes everyone from centrists to corporate Democrats to democratic socialists. The party must therefore confront its identity and leadership crises beyond opposition to Trump if it hopes to convert electoral victories into lasting political change.
Trump and the Iran War after the Democratic Victory
Daniel Brumberg, Non-resident Senior Fellow
The Iran war played a significant role in the defeat of the Republicans. But what Trump will do next is difficult to predict. After all, his decision to launch a war of choice against Iran was never anchored to a clear strategic goal—or even to a rational calculation. The question now is whether Trump’s grandiosity and urge to demonstrate power will lead him to revive the war with Iran or walk away from it.
The scale of the Republicans’ defeat would seem to argue for walking away. Republican leaders will surely urge Trump to find an exit strategy, knowing that they will pay a heavy political price in the 2028 elections if Trump chooses to continue the war. Trump might instead react with rage. But a brief, intense assault on Iran will not compel Iran’s leaders to reopen the Strait of Hormuz or to accept a nuclear deal. If Trump strikes Iranian oil, gas, and infrastructure targets, Iran will retaliate by attacking the oil, gas, and desalination plants of the Arab Gulf states. Any attempt to bomb Iran into submission would therefore invite a response that could cripple the entire global oil and gas market. This scenario of “mutually assured devastation” cannot deliver a US military victory.
If Trump agrees to negotiate with Iran, he might redirect his wrath at his US advisers who helped get him into the war, or at Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, who is struggling to forge a new ruling coalition after inconclusive parliamentary elections. It is ironic that the US-Israeli war to bring about regime change in Iran has set in motion a shift in government in the United States that has left Trump in a much weaker position.
The US-Israeli Relationship Is Headed for Turbulence
Yousef Munayyer, Head of Israel/Palestine Program and Senior Fellow
The historic midterm election results were not just a referendum on Donald Trump but also a protest vote against the US-Israeli war on Iran and its economic fallout, which was felt by every American voter. Foreign policy issues rarely drive electoral outcomes in the United States, largely because the average American feels far removed from policies being enacted thousands of miles away from the homeland. This time, however, Americans were reminded of the failures of the Iran war with every visit to the gas station and grocery store. The war became a domestic issue that directly impacted the pocketbooks of Americans across the political spectrum.
Israel is a central piece of this story. There is greater scrutiny than ever before of pro-Israel interest groups’ spending in US politics, as well as revulsion over Israel’s genocide in Gaza. The implications for Palestine and Israel will be significant as the US-Israeli relationship is likely headed for greater turbulence. The old electoral strategies that had delivered victories for pro-Israel candidates in the past failed spectacularly this round, especially in crucial swing states like Michigan, where an unprecedented number of candidates championing Palestinian rights were elected to Congress. This change opens the door to a new era of politics in the United States on Israel and Palestine, which will shape policymaking—and potentially the dynamics of the conflict itself—for years to come.
What Will Happen to Energy Prices?
Jim Krane, Non-resident Senior Fellow
The “blue wave” will have little effect on gasoline and diesel prices. High energy prices are a direct consequence of the unpopular war on Iran, which has seen repeated attacks on tanker ships and refineries, creating shortages and driving energy prices upward. A potential end to the war would ease price pressures, but oil demand will remain elevated for another year or two as governments and firms refill storage sites that have reached their lowest levels since 2016. As of the end of October 2026, about a tenth of global refining capacity remained offline due to the wars in Iran and Ukraine. The war on Iran has also brought about huge increases in tanker chartering costs. Oil prices are ultimately set in a global marketplace, and neither Congress nor the president has many immediate options to reduce them.
After the midterms, President Trump might also undertake actions that have the opposite effect. Reigniting the war on Iran would almost certainly increase oil and fuel prices. Congress could push back. But President Trump has already demonstrated his willingness to act without consulting the legislature.
A Democrat-led Congress might also limit the effectiveness of steps taken to relieve price pressures. Democrats might deepen their oversight of investments by US companies and the Pentagon in Venezuela’s oil and gas industry or try to eliminate sanctions waivers (with the support of many Republicans) on the sale of Russian oil products. Both initiatives would potentially undermine the Trump administration’s efforts to obtain additional oil and refined fuel from Venezuela and Russia, with the aim of lowering energy costs in the United States. In short, prices look like they are set to remain high for some time to come.
Will Trump Intervene Militarily in Yemen?
Annelle Sheline, Non-resident Senior Fellow
What the US midterms mean for Yemen and the Saudi-Houthi conflict is not yet clear. So far, Trump has refused Riyadh’s request to intervene directly against the Houthis, opting instead to send US military and intelligence advisers.
This decision likely reflects a combination of factors. Saudi Arabia has struggled to support the anti-Houthi factions in Yemen after Riyadh insisted that its regional rival, the United Arab Emirates (UAE), leave the country in January 2026. But Trump seems to favor Abu Dhabi, which delivered what he considers one of his most significant foreign policy victories, the Abraham Accords. The Trump administration may feel that Saudi Arabia should be made to suffer the consequences for its decision to oust the UAE and take on the Houthis alone. In addition, Trump is likely reluctant to open another war front while the US Navy is busy guarding oil tankers transiting the Strait of Hormuz.
Now that Trump no longer feels pressure from the elections to lower oil prices, he may have even less incentive to intervene on behalf of Saudi Arabia to bring more of the kingdom’s oil to market. However, if Trump launches another major attack on Iran, the Houthis may retaliate against US bases. In this scenario, Trump could decide to reinitiate attacks on Yemen. Yet given the US electorate’s apparent repudiation of Trump’s bellicose foreign policy, the Republican Party may try to convince the president to do everything he can to return to his popular campaign promise of “no more stupid wars.”
Corruption Allegations May Hinder Trump’s Foreign Policy Agenda
Amy Hawthorne, Non-resident Senior Fellow
Americans are outraged by the corruption of Trump and his administration. The incoming Democratic majority in Congress will no doubt aggressively use their powers to investigate the administration’s alleged wrongdoings. They will be able to order hearings, issue subpoenas for documents and testimony, and refer evidence of wrongdoing to federal prosecutors. Cases involving the Middle East will be their top targets.
Democrats are likely to probe areas such as Emirati investments in a cryptocurrency venture founded by Trump (and his sons) and his Middle East envoy, Steve Witkoff (and his son as well); Trump’s lucrative Middle East real estate deals; and Gulf financing of the private equity firm owned by Trump’s son-in-law and “peace envoy,” Jared Kushner.
Of course, Trump and his allies will fight all attempts to hold them accountable. In his first term, when a Democratic-controlled Congress pursued investigations, Trump and his associates refused to comply with subpoenas and otherwise stymied the oversight process. Now, as a lame duck who has lost Congress, Trump will likely lash out by even more brazenly flouting rules and norms.
Democrats know this about Trump and are prepared. But investigations and court battles take time, and legal accountability is slow. Therefore, Democrats’ short-term objective will be to hammer the political case against what Rep. Robert Garcia (D-CA) calls “the Trump crime family.” As the 2028 presidential race gets underway, Democrats will use corruption revelations to inflict maximum political damage on Trump and his Republican enablers.
The views expressed in this publication are the authors’ own and do not necessarily reflect the position of Arab Center Washington DC, its staff, or its Board of Directors.
Featured image credit: Howard Weiss via Shutterstock
