With just a few days until Election Day, the 2024 presidential race between former President Donald Trump and Vice President Kamala Harris appears to be extraordinarily close. After enjoying a rapid initial ascent in the polls, Harris has lost some steam over the last couple of months. As of now, national polling data suggest that the race is too close to call:
- 25-27 TIPP Insights Poll: Harris 48 percent – Trump 48 percent
- 23-25 CBS YouGov Poll: Harris 50 percent – Trump 49 percent
- 23-24 Emerson College Poll: Harris 49 percent – Trump 49 percent
- 20-23 CNN/SSRS Poll: Harris 47 percent – Trump 47 percent
- 20-23 NYT/Siena College: Harris 48 percent – Trump 48 percent
- 19-24 ActiVote Poll: Harris 50 percent – Trump 50 percent
The candidates have squared off on issues relating to the economy, immigration, national security, women’s reproductive rights, and foreign policy. The last, particularly the situation in the Middle East, has taken a relative backseat recently, as neither candidate has meaningfully distinguished herself or himself from the other. In fact, both have committed to continuing US “ironclad” support for Israel, a stable principle in both the Republican and Democratic Party platforms.
The Biden administration’s support for Israel’s multi-front war in Gaza, the occupied West Bank, and Lebanon has alienated a key demographic in this year’s election: Arab-American voters. Horrified by the ongoing devastation, Arab-Americans played an integral role during the primary season last spring in launching the Uncommitted Movement, among other adjacent protest movements, to challenge the Democratic Party’s silence over genocide in Gaza. In the Democratic primary in Michigan, a key battleground state in this year’s election, more than 100,000 people voted “uncommitted.” Notably, this number was only 50,000 votes less than the margin of victory in President Joe Biden’s 2020 performance in Michigan, and it is greater than Trump’s win over Hillary Clinton in the state in 2016. Similar protest campaigns took place in other key states, such as Pennsylvania and North Carolina, both of which drew tens of thousands of “Uncommitted” votes. After primary season, Arab-Americans continued their plea for a change in US policy during the August 2024 Democratic National Convention (DNC) in Chicago. But with protests surrounding the convention center, DNC organizers rejected requests to feature a Palestinian-American speaker on stage.
By all accounts, Harris has sought to appeal to undecided moderate and conservative voters more than to Arab-American voters. However, she has gone a step beyond centrism by aligning herself with the likes of former Wyoming Representative Liz Cheney and her father, former Vice President Dick Cheney. The Cheney name is inextricably tied to a legacy of American devastation in the region, making Harris’s decision to associate with them now almost a sardonic one. While cozying up to war hawks like the Cheneys may prove to be an effective enough electoral strategy this year, it is a harrowing reminder of how (un)serious the Democratic Party is about ending the cycle of US-funded wars in the Middle East.
The continued peripheralization of Arab-American voices has made it clear that to Harris and her campaign, just as Palestinian lives may not matter as much as others do in this election, Arab American votes may matter less, too. As a result, we are seeing a remarkable shift in the polling data ahead of the election. This year, Arab-Americans may come out in equal numbers for Trump as they do for Harris. According to polling from the Arab American Institute (AAI), Harris (41 percent) sits at 18 points below Biden’s 2020 level of support with Arab-American voters (59 percent). AAI’s recent polls found that Trump and Harris are practically tied at 42 percent and 41 percent, respectively, with 12 percent supporting third-party candidates. In a separate poll from Arab News/YouGov, Trump was even found to be leading Harris 45 percent to 43 percent.
The Harris campaign’s decision not to make a dramatic break away from the Biden administration’s policies toward Israel is perhaps not surprising. Harris was not expected to deviate significantly from Biden upon her nomination as Democratic candidate for president. But there were modest hopes that she would be more receptive to Americans’ outcry against Israel’s wars. To the disappointment of many, this has not been the case, and Americans are about to find out how much that will hurt her come November 5.
The views expressed in this publication are the author’s own and do not necessarily reflect the position of Arab Center Washington DC, its staff, or its Board of Directors.
Featured image credit: Shutterstock/Lev Radin
