On May 13, US President Donald Trump began a four-day tour of Gulf countries, during which he traveled to Saudi Arabia, Qatar, and the United Arab Emirates (UAE). The visit featured the announcement of commercial deals worth hundreds of billions of dollars in each country. Trump’s May 13-14 visit to Riyadh echoed his May 2017 first-term trip to the kingdom, while this year he added Qatar and the UAE to the itinerary. Notably, unlike in 2017, Israel was excluded from the regional tour, a decision that raised eyebrows, particularly in light of recent reports of tensions between Trump and Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu. The omission led to speculation about Israel being sidelined by Trump, an impression that was reinforced by its relatively minimal mention during the visit.
The Saudi-Israeli normalization issue, aside from a brief reference in Trump’s May 13 speech in Riyadh, was conspicuously absent from the agenda. Instead, the spotlight was on the announcement of large-scale bilateral commercial deals and the warm rhetoric exchanged between Gulf leaders and the US president. Trump focused on strengthening ties with the Gulf states and correcting what he described as the Biden administration’s initial misstep of downplaying relations with Saudi Arabia. He aimed to spotlight the economic achievements symbolized by these deals.
In a surprising move that caught even his own administration off guard, Trump in Riyadh announced a US plan to lift economic sanctions on Syria, crediting Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman (MBS) and Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan for helping to shape his decision. The Syria news was seen as a significant gesture aimed to elevate the Saudi and Gulf roles in rebuilding the war-torn country. But the news displeased Israeli officials, who oppose the rapid removal of sanctions without accommodating their demands regarding developments in that country.
While the media portrayal of the visit and the flattering exchanges suggest strong ties between Riyadh and the Trump administration, the tangible outcomes for Saudi Arabia may fall short of the dazzling optics. Several challenges persist, particularly on the economic front. For one thing, Trump’s continued pressure for lower oil prices directly threatens Saudi Arabia’s economic diversification plans. For another, Saudi ambitions to develop a civilian nuclear program with US support remain entangled with the Saudi Arabian-Israeli normalization issue. Although prior to the visit there was talk of reaching a stand-alone agreement on nuclear cooperation, no such deal materialized during the visit. Nor were there signs of progress on the defense pact long sought by Saudi Arabia. For Washington, such a deal remains contingent upon the kingdom’s agreement to establish formal relations with Israel.
No Rush Toward Normalization
In his Riyadh speech, Trump reiterated his hope that Saudi Arabia would eventually join the Abraham Accords, but emphasized that it should happen “ on [the Saudis’] own time.” This phrasing indicates an understanding of Riyadh’s reluctance to move toward normalization, particularly amid the ongoing Israeli destruction of Gaza and with the absence of any roadmap for a Palestinian state. Trump has taken a controversial stance on Gaza, suggesting that the area be cleared of its population, an idea that he has repeated recently, adding that he wants to make Gaza a “freedom zone,” revealing his indifference toward a two-state solution and unwillingness to pressure Israel in that direction. This reinforces the likelihood that normalization will be postponed until Israel, or the kingdom, shifts its stance on the Palestinian issue.
Saudi officials had hoped that Trump’s flexibility on normalization would be accompanied by a delinking of its other key demands from any Saudi-Israeli deal.
Saudi officials had hoped that Trump’s flexibility on normalization would be accompanied by a delinking of its other key demands (such as US support for the civilian nuclear program to which Saudi Arabia aspires) from any Saudi-Israeli deal. The issue was raised during the April 2025 visit of the US Secretary of Energy, Chris Wright, to Riyadh, and speculation mounted that a nuclear deal would be announced during Trump’s visit. But no agreement emerged. The same dynamic applies to the proposed defense treaty between the two countries. While Saudi Arabia is eager for such a pact, there appears to be little interest at present in the US Congress, even among Republicans, to move forward without linking it to normalization with Israel.
During the visit, a record $142 billion in Saudi arms purchases from the United States was announced. Yet doubts persist about whether these deals will materialize at the stated scale, and some experts say that the eye-popping figure may include re-purposed previous agreements. There has also been no clarity on whether these include certain advanced weapons Saudi Arabia desires, such as F-35 fighter jets, which Israel may oppose due to concerns over maintaining its qualitative military edge in the region.
The visit yielded no significant developments on the Palestinian issue. There appears to be no substantial shift in the US position on the Gaza conflict, despite reports of alleged American pressure to halt the war, claims that a US official denied. However, Trump did grant Saudi Arabia a political win by announcing that the United States would lift sanctions on Syria and by meeting in Riyadh with Syrian President Ahmed al-Sharaa, whom he praised afterward. The surprise sanctions move offers Saudi Arabia a gateway to a major role in Syria and the broader Levant. And Trump’s public endorsement of the crown prince as a key regional actor gives Riyadh an opportunity to expand its influence in Syria, particularly by leveraging its economic capabilities to counterbalance Turkish military and intelligence power there. Still, key obstacles remain, not least of which is Israel’s growing military presence in southern Syria, which limits the new Syrian government’s reach. Other ongoing concerns include the role of armed groups in the country and the Kurdish issue.
Massive but Uncertain Deals
The centerpiece of Trump’s visit was the announcement of a promised $600 billion in commercial deals, mostly for Gulf investment in the US economy, with a potential to grow to $1 trillion. These covered sectors such as defense and security, energy, and artificial intelligence, mainly in the form of pledges for major Saudi investments in and purchases from American companies. Trump claimed the Saudi investments could generate up to two million jobs in the United States. However, these deals resemble the $400 billion in memorandums of understanding (MOUs) announced during his 2017 Riyadh visit, many of which never came to fruition. The nature of these MOUs, non-binding and requiring extensive follow-up, means that translating them into actionable agreements will be complex.
Trump’s announcements may be more of a public relations victory than a serious economic breakthrough.
In reality, Saudi Arabia lacks the capacity to invest such vast sums in the United States. Its annual spending rarely exceeds $350 billion, and its sovereign wealth fund has assets of approximately $925 billion only. Furthermore, the kingdom is facing a projected budget deficit exceeding $67 billion in 2025, having already recorded a $15 billion deficit in the first quarter of the year, up significantly from $3.3 billion in the same period last year. Saudi Arabia must prioritize heavy spending to meet domestic needs and to fund mega-projects aimed at diversifying its economy away from oil. Thus, Trump’s announcements may be more of a public relations victory than a serious economic breakthrough.
Interestingly, the deals included cooperation in artificial intelligence (AI), a field in which Saudi Arabia is eager to assert itself as a global leader. The United States has shown a willingness to provide AI chips to the kingdom, and partnerships have been announced between American firms such as Amazon and the newly established AI firm, HUMAIN, backed by the Saudi government. Saudi Arabia aspires to become the region’s AI hub, while the United States seeks to redirect Gulf investments away from China and into its own tech sector.
Still, Riyadh hopes for greater American investment in its Vision 2030 projects, which have faced downsizing and rescheduling due to a drop in foreign investment and falling oil prices. These challenges also hinder Saudi efforts to create employment opportunities for its youth, whom the government can no longer absorb into the public sector. In 2024, foreign direct investment in Saudi Arabia hit its lowest level in three years. Meanwhile, oil prices dropped below $60 per barrel in April 2025, while the kingdom’s breakeven price for funding its development projects is estimated at $96. To cope, Saudi Arabia is relying more on borrowing and delaying or scaling back initiatives, such as the NEOM project on the Red Sea, which is undergoing a comprehensive review and timeline adjustment.
Currently, Saudi Arabia insists on maintaining its market share in the face of rising production by other OPEC+ countries such as Kazakhstan, Iraq, and the UAE. This has pushed the kingdom to increase production recently. Some analysts suggest that this may also reflect a gesture to Trump, who continues to call for lower oil prices. Trump’s policies, particularly tariff measures targeting China, are expected to dampen global oil demand by slowing Chinese economic growth and further suppressing prices. This could complicate Saudi efforts to meet the requirements of its economic plans.
The Future of the Relationship
Trump’s visit highlighted the personal nature of his relationship with the Saudi leadership, a dynamic that Riyadh appears to favor. Personal, direct ties, unencumbered by bureaucratic hurdles, offer Saudi Arabia a pathway to secure strategic gains from Trump and the United States. The Saudi government appreciates Trump’s unwillingness to exert any form of pressure on the kingdom to improve its human rights record, as well as his conviction, expressed in Riyadh. The Saudi leadership seems to understand Trump’s worldview, shaped by a deal-making, business oriented mindset, and his appreciation for those who flatter him or validate his self-image. Trump emphasized the strength and resilience of the American-Saudi relationship during his visit, suggesting that it can withstand policy disagreements and maintain a cooperative spirit.
Trump’s pivot on the Syrian issue offers Saudi Arabia a renewed opportunity to assert its regional role in the Levant.
Yet this personal rapport does not guarantee that Saudi Arabia will achieve all its strategic goals through its relationship with Trump. Despite the effusive praise he directed at his hosts in Riyadh, Trump has yet to offer concrete commitments on the defense treaty or nuclear cooperation issues that are so important to the kingdom. There are also no assurances of a boost in American investment in the kingdom, despite the presence of some three dozen top US CEOs who flew to Riyadh to join Trump. Moreover, Trump’s emphasis on “fair trade” and his desire to lower oil prices remain fundamentally misaligned with Saudi interests to finance its flagship projects and achieve its economic diversification goals.
Nevertheless, Trump’s pivot on the Syrian issue offers Saudi Arabia a renewed opportunity to assert its regional role in the Levant. Whether this translates into tangible influence will depend upon how Riyadh navigates the ongoing challenges in the Syrian theater and how Washington manages the conflicts of interests between its regional allies, most notably Saudi Arabia and Israel.
The views expressed in this publication are the author’s own and do not necessarily reflect the position of Arab Center Washington DC, its staff, or its Board of Directors.
Featured image credit: SPA
