Just two weeks have passed since President-elect Donald Trump won the election, and his new administration is already taking shape. Trump’s selections for his national security team indicate a stronger embrace of the more hawkish elements of the Republican Party than some observers expected, not a departure from the neo-conservatives and stalwart war hawks whom he ridiculed on the campaign trail. Indeed, Trump’s picks point to a continued ideological commitment to US military might and influence globally, and in the Middle East in particular.
Marco Rubio, Secretary of State
Perhaps most emblematic of Trump’s embrace of more traditional right-wing figures in Washington is his pick for secretary of state, Senator Marco Rubio (R-FL). Rubio currently serves as ranking member of the Senate Intelligence Committee and has been one of the most hawkish supporters of Israel in Congress. Notably, Rubio led efforts to codify the 2016 US-Israeli Memorandum of Understanding (MOU), which provides billions in military aid to Israel each year, and cosponsored legislation to block the Biden administration from withholding any weapons to Israel during its current war on Gaza.
In addition to ensuring that Israel is fully equipped to continue its current multi-front war, Rubio has sought to shield Israel from criticism. On the domestic front, he has called for investigations into pro-Palestine protests, sponsored anti-Boycott, Divestment and Sanctions legislation, and supported legislation to revoke visas of foreign students involved in pro-Palestine protests. At the international level, Rubio cosponsored a bill on November 13 that seeks to limit US participation in and funding across the United Nations system if the body downgrades Israel’s status in any way, building on previous legislation to withhold US contributions to the United Nations Relief and Works Agency and other organizations serving Palestinians. Outside of his support for Israel, Rubio has pushed for intense pressure against Iran and its affiliated militias. He has supported harsher sanctions on Iran as well as tougher and sanctions enforcement, has been a leader in congressional efforts to reinstate the Houthis’ designation as a Foreign Terrorist Organization (FTO), and has been a proponent of keeping a US military presence in Syria.
Elise Stefanik, Ambassador to the United Nations
President-elect Trump named Representative Elise Stefanik (R-NY) to be ambassador to the United Nations. Stefanik, the House Republican Conference chair, has served since 2014 in Congress, where she developed a reputation as a fierce ally of Israel. During her tenure, Stefanik introduced legislation to advance energy and defense cooperation between Israel and the United States and has supported stronger sanctions against Iran. She has also played a central role in driving Republicans’ attacks on pro-Palestine activism, including by demanding that university administrators clamp down further on students who demonstrated against the genocide in Gaza.
Stefanik’s selection as UN ambassador suggests that the Trump administration admired her reputation as an advocate for Israel. She has been a leading and a rather effective Republican voice in shielding Israel from US domestic criticism. With the ongoing international legal investigations into Israel’s conduct, and Israel’s continued attacks on UN personnel in Lebanon, Stefanik will be asked to bring this experience to the United Nations itself. Analysts expect a continuation of the confrontational style practiced by former UN ambassador to the United Nations Nicki Haley, but with closer coordination with the White House this time around.
Mike Huckabee, Ambassador to Israel
Trump named former Arkansas Republican Governor Mike Huckabee as his choice for ambassador to Israel. Huckabee will be charged with advancing Trump’s campaign promise to quickly end the war in Gaza. Notably, he holds a particularly extremist view of Israel and Palestine, having denied the existence of Palestinians and declared that a two-state solution is “never going to happen and never should happen.” Trump’s decision to reward someone espousing these views with an ambassadorship to Israel offers a clear glimpse into the way that his administration will approach the issue of Palestinian self-determination. To be sure, Huckabee’s appointment will be a repeat of the ambassadorship of David Friedman during Trump’s first term who boasted close ties with extremist Israeli rightwing settlers. Huckabee’s added value is that he brings along the direct support of the American Christian Zionist right to his position and to the overall US policy on the Palestinian-Israeli conflict.
Mike Waltz, National Security Advisor
Representative Mike Waltz (R-FL), chosen as White House national security advisor, is another solidly hawkish voice in the incoming administration. Waltz is a former Green Beret who has served as a policy official at the Pentagon during the George W. Bush administration, as an executive of a defense contracting company, and most recently as a senior member of the House Armed Services Committee, the House Foreign Affairs Committee, and the House Permanent Select Committee on Intelligence. Waltz’s policy positions resemble those of his Republican colleagues. He has consistently supported Israel’s wars, even encouraging Israel to directly strike key oil production sites and nuclear facilities in Iran, and has condemned US-led ceasefire efforts in Gaza over the last year. Waltz previously objected to the withdrawal of US troops from Syria (contrary to Trump’s demand during his first term) and supported the redesignation of the Houthis as an FTO.
The Remaining Cast
The remaining cast of Trump’s national security nominees is somewhat of a motley crew. There is Pete Hegseth, Trump’s pick for secretary of defense, who would come to the position after serving as a co-host on Fox & Friends Weekend. Prior to joining Fox, Hegseth, a combat veteran, served in the Iraq and Afghanistan wars, including deployment at Guantanamo Bay, and was active in veteran-serving organizations. Hegseth has been a key Republican foot soldier in the current culture wars, frequently criticizing diversity, equity, and inclusion initiatives (DEI) in the military. If he is confirmed, attacking DEI is likely to be at the center of his agenda at the Department of Defense. Finally, Hegseth is affiliated with Christian nationalism in the United States and is antagonistic toward Islam.
Trump’s Special Envoy to the Middle East, Steven Witkoff, is another surprising choice. Witkoff is a New York businessman with no foreign policy credentials, though Trump praised him as “an unrelenting voice for PEACE.” As the Trump foreign policy agenda takes shape, Witkoff will likely be tasked with facilitating business deals and other commercial initiatives in the region. His choice is indeed strange since what is going for him is his being Trump’s golf partner instead of his experience in the complicated affairs of the Middle East.
On the intelligence side, Trump’s pick for CIA director, John Ratcliffe, has stirred up controversy. Ratcliffe is a former Republican congressman from Texas who served as director of national intelligence at the end of Trump’s first administration, coming under scrutiny for his attempts to use intelligence to aid Trump politically in the lead-up to the 2020 election. Aside from Ratcliffe, the choice of Tulsi Gabbard as Director of National Intelligence should also give pause. Gabbard, a former Democratic congresswoman from Hawaii who now is a Republican, has been heavily criticized for her decision to secretly travel to Syria in 2017 to meet with Bashar al-Assad. At the time, Gabbard disputed multiple international investigations concluding that the Assad regime used chemical weapons against its own citizens and stood against her colleagues by leading legislation that would have prohibited the use of US funds to provide assistance to Jabhat Fateh al-Sham (al-Nusra Front), although the bill never reached the House floor for a vote. Gabbard is also close to Russian President Vladimir Putin.
Also likely to play a role in national security issues is Stephen Miller, who will serve as Trump’s deputy chief of staff for policy. One of Miller’s first orders of business could be the elimination of Temporary Protected Status (TPS), a program that he and other Republicans have often lambasted. Eliminating TPS would jeopardize the status of Sudanese, Somali, Syrian, Yemeni, and other foreign nationals from war-torn countries who are currently legally permitted to reside in the United States, potentially forcing them to return to their country of origin.
Conclusion
Heading into his second presidency, Trump will have both chambers of Congress behind him, at least until the 2026 midterm elections, which leaves plenty of time for the administration to fully implement its agenda for the Middle East. On the domestic front, the American public can expect legislative efforts (some of which will be bipartisan) to stymie pro-Palestine activism. As for foreign policy, Trump’s cabinet selections have clarified that he will not stand in the way of Israel’s prosecution of the Gaza and Lebanon wars or its policies toward the West Bank. Additionally, Trump will likely attempt to deepen Israel’s integration in the region, either through trying to expand the Abraham Accords or through a series of individual agreements.
Further down the road, another development to watch will be the renegotiation of the 2018 US-Israeli Memorandum of Understanding (MOU), which is set to expire at the end of Trump’s term in 2028. Consistent with the current MOU, the United States is committed to give Israel $3.3 billion in foreign military financing and $500 million for cooperative programs for missile defense each year from 2018-2028. Since October 7, 2023, Israel has received significantly more military aid than its typical annual allotment; a new MOU will likely reflect this growing commitment to Israel’s security and is sure to build on many of Trump’s pro-Israel policies over the next four years.
The views expressed in this publication are the author’s own and do not necessarily reflect the position of Arab Center Washington DC, its staff, or its Board of Directors.
Featured image credit: Flickr/Gage Skidmore; ODNI
