In front of a packed hall hosting an investment forum in Riyadh, Saudi Arabia, US President Donald Trump spoke of an ironclad American-Saudi relationship that spans decades and that will be strengthened with deals across military, economic, security, and technological sectors. Both he and his host, Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman bin Abdul-Aziz Al Saud, spoke of Saudi investments worth $600 billion in deals with the United States. Bin Salman said he hoped that the US-Saudi relationship will one day reach the $1 trillion mark. President Trump was effusive in his praise of domestic development in the kingdom today and of the leadership its crown prince is providing for its modernization. Trump spoke of Saudi Arabia as a model for the new Middle East, a “modern miracle the Arabian way,” in a clear reference to the many physical changes the kingdom has seen as part of the Vision 2030 development agenda aimed at diversifying its economy away from reliance on the energy sector.
Among the largest bilateral deals that the president signed with Mohammed bin Salman was a $142 billion agreement for the purchase of state-of-the-art US military equipment and services. Another was worth billions more for artificial intelligence data centers and development. Taken together, the signed deals and the promises of more future Saudi investment in the United States point to a decision that the Trump administration has made regarding a new direction in its relationship with the Middle East, and specifically the Gulf region. But this new direction is not necessarily a stark change from the previous orientation. It contains a specific commitment to a special relationship that secures for the United States a primacy over whatever deals Saudi Arabia, and arguably all the nations of the Gulf Cooperation Council, make with such regional newcomers China, India, or Russia.
In his speech, and in addition to the praise he heaped on the ‘new’ Saudi Arabia, President Trump spoke briefly on other issues at the center of the US relationship with the Middle East and of the Gulf states as important players in the region’s developments. First, there was nothing new in what the president said regarding Gaza and Israel’s war on the Strip. Trump extolled American efforts to release the hostages in Gaza, taking credit for the release of American-Israeli Edan Alexander. Where he showed a bit of sunlight between him and Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu was in declaring his preference for an end to the war “as quickly as possible.” He also showed some sympathy for the Palestinians of Gaza, declaring that they “deserve a much better future.” The problem, however, is that the president just a few months ago called for dispossessing the same Palestinians whose present he now laments, and sending them into exile to live in Egypt, Jordan, and elsewhere as the United States helps make the Gaza Strip a Riviera of the Middle East.
Second, the president appeared to have accepted, grudgingly, that Saudi Arabia is not ready today to join his ‘normalization with Israel’ project. Trump said that it was his dream that this step be taken but that he respects the kingdom’s decision to do so on its own time. Considering the complications of said normalization as Israel continues its genocide against the Palestinians and its military operations against Lebanon, Syria, and Yemen, the US president may have finally come to grips with the difficulty of convincing Riyadh to normalize relations with the Zionist state.
Third, as the Saudi crown prince was absorbing the president’s comments about Iran and its malign activities and threats of becoming a nuclear-armed state, Trump could not help but repeat what US presidents before him and other US officials know as “truths” about the Islamic Republic. By helping and funding terrorist groups like Hamas and Hezbollah, Iran is the “most destructive force” in the Middle East, Trump said. He pledged that Iran will never acquire a nuclear weapon, but he kept open the possibility of reaching a compromise deal with Tehran that can preserve the peace and stability in the region. What was noteworthy was his avoidance of threatening military force; instead, he spoke of maximum pressure that would prevent the Islamic Republic from selling any of its oil. At the same time, it was interesting that the US president was lambasting Iran and its policies and behavior while Saudi Arabia and other Gulf states are making serious efforts to deescalate tensions with Tehran. In other words, in this aspect, it is unlikely that President Trump will get his wish if his maximum pressure policy toward Iran will require that he ask the Gulf states to participate in applying it.
Fourth, in a surprise announcement, the president declared that the United States will be lifting all sanctions on Syria to “give them a chance at greatness.” His hope is that the new authorities in Damascus will be able to stabilize the country after a chaotic period. Such a decision is a welcome gesture that will help Syria begin to rebuild after the long years of civil war and the decades of bad governance and authoritarianism under the Baathist regime. However, this step will be wasted if the new authorities in Damascus do not strive to ensure security for all and build an inclusive and just political system.
Finally, President Trump’s speech in Riyadh today was a pitch for more extravagant economic, security, and military cooperation between the United States and Saudi Arabia that can justify more American commitment to the Gulf kingdom, as well as the other Gulf states. The most pressing question, however, remains how ready and able Saudi Arabia is to provide the needed assurance that the US president craves regarding extravagant investments in the United States. Saudi Arabia today is committed to an extremely expensive diversification agenda within Vision 2030 while energy prices are much lower than the kingdom wishes them to be. How exactly Mohammed bin Salman will deliver on his promises to President Trump at the Riyadh forum of massive investment in the United States remains to be seen.
The views expressed in this publication are the author’s own and do not necessarily reflect the position of Arab Center Washington DC, its staff, or its Board of Directors.
