On December 8, the Syrian armed resistance group Hay’at Tahrir al-Sham (HTS) brought the Assad regime to an abrupt end after more than 54 years of brutal rule. HTS’s victory came 14 years after the start of a civil war that claimed the lives of an estimated 618,000 people and displaced some 13 million, about half of whom were forced to flee Syria to escape the violence.
Now the fate of the millions of Syrians who sought refuge outside their country is in question. Since Bashar al-Assad’s fall, numerous European countries have stopped processing Syrian asylum claims, and some governments have called on those already granted asylum to be deported or given incentives to leave. And some Middle Eastern countries have issued calls for Syrians to leave or taken other steps against Syrian refugees within their borders.
Indeed, the end of the Syrian civil war has given new life to longstanding anti-immigrant rhetoric deployed against Syrians, who are, along with Afghans, the largest displaced group of people in the world. The Syrian case underscores how some states that have acceded to the 1951 Refugee Convention and other international instruments are abdicating their legal responsibility to asylum, and increasingly casting asylum seekers as burdens to be repelled or expeditiously removed. If European and other governments seeking their removal succeed, Syrians who have endured the trauma of war, faced harrowing conditions on their journeys to refuge, and built lives in destination countries may face yet another displacement and possibly violence upon return to Syria.
Forcing refugees to return to Syria is a troubling prospect in light of the decimation of Syrian infrastructure and resources by the Assad regime and international actors, through their military interventions and economic sanctions. Meanwhile, many of the same European countries rescinding or denying refugee status to Syrians express hesitancy about lifting economic sanctions on Syria, adding to the country’s uncertain future as it undergoes drastic change.
The Politics and Realities of Refuge
As news of Damascus’s fall spread, many of the more than one million Syrians who sought asylum in Germany descended into the streets to celebrate. They hoisted red-starred green-white-and-black Free Syrian flags on their shoulders, chanting, singing, and shouting in jubilation at the news of their home country’s freedom. At this moment, politicians across Germany were already debating their fate. Right-wing leaders demanded that all Syrians who sought refuge in Germany be repatriated expeditiously. Alice Weidel, a leader of the right wing Alternative for Deutschland (AfD) Party, wrote on X that “whoever in Germany celebrates a ‘free Syria’ obviously has no reason any more to have fled,” adding, “He should go back to Syria immediately.”
Germany is not the only country where politicians quickly made such statements urging Syrians to return home, despite the continuing uncertainty in Syria. On December 9, Austria’s Conservative chancellor announced that the government was preparing an “orderly repatriation and deportation to Syria,” later adding that Austria is offering a 1,000 euro bonus to any Syrian who leaves voluntarily. In Lebanon, caretaker prime minister Najib Mikati said that the 2 million Syrians in his country should return home.
More than 7.2 million people remain internally displaced in Syria.
Alongside these suggestions has come action. Egyptian authorities directed airlines to stop accepting Syrian passengers without a temporary non-tourist residence permit. Countries across Europe have stopped processing Syrian asylum claims. The German Federal Office for Migration and Refugees, for instance, has put all pending claims for Syrians on hold, a decision that affects 47,270 people, many of whom have been waiting for years for a decision. Austria’s chancellor also announced the suspension of ongoing asylum procedures for Syrian citizens. Other European countries, including Belgium, Denmark, Finland, Italy, Greece, Sweden, and the United Kingdom, have either paused or permanently stopped processing of pending asylum cases. (As of this writing, the European Commission’s official policy is that “the conditions are not met for safe, voluntary, dignified returns to Syria.”)
To understand the magnitude of these decisions is to see them from the perspective of people affected. More than a decade ago, after protests and skirmishes developed into a full-fledged war, displaced people in Syria sought refuge nearby with family or friends in the countryside or in other urban areas. Today, more than 7.2 million people remain internally displaced in Syria. The number of total displacements is just under 20 million—indicating that, on average, each displaced person has relocated between two and three times.
Most people who fled Syria went to neighboring countries such as Turkey, Jordan, and Lebanon, where many remain. By some estimates Syrians have made up over a quarter of Lebanon’s population since 2014. However, Syrians struggle in these countries. Human Rights Watch, for instance, has reported that Turkey was deporting Syrians as early as 2022. For many Syrians who had lost everything they owned, and many of their loved ones, the promise of stability lay in countries of the Global North. One possibility was resettlement, an option in which countries, mainly the United States and Canada offered safe passage to cases with high humanitarian need. It is a rare solution, however, available to less than 1 percent of all displaced people. Most Syrians who sought refuge were forced to make arduous and dangerous journeys across increasingly violent borders in pursuit of asylum. At least half a million Syrians have traveled to the European Union by boat, often from Turkey to Greece’s Aegean islands. There they faced pushbacks, including the breaking of engines and dragging back into Turkish waters. And those attempting to migrate to the United States must travel on the deadliest land route in the world, one equipped to repel and deny them because of extreme weather conditions and difficult terrain.
Upon arrival at any of these destinations, legal status is not assured. In the United States, Syrians have Temporary Protective Status (TPS), a discretionary legal category that allows for lawful employment and protects against deportation, but it must be renewed and is subject to the political whims of those in power. The current protection expires on September 30, 2025. Those wanting to apply for asylum, whether in the United States or in Europe, enter years of difficult procedures, including providing proof that they could not have applied for asylum elsewhere and evidence that they face a credible fear of persecution in their home country. Despite recognizing the conditions of war, the United Nations High Commissioner for Refugees (UNHCR) never granted Syria prima facie refugee status, meaning “recognized on the basis of readily apparent, objective circumstances in the country of origin.” It only recognized a “refugee movement,” meaning that each person and family had to advocate for their own case and prove their persecution.
The end of the Syrian civil war has given new life to anti-immigrant rhetoric against Syrians.
By the time Syrian asylum-seekers arrive in the west and their asylum claims enter adjudication, they have experienced unfathomable losses. Their stable lives had been destroyed by war and they lost loved ones and their homes and communities. The sights and sounds of their birthplaces would never be the same. Often people sold possessions to finance these journeys. Many became indebted to family members, friends, or loan sharks that profit from their vulnerability. From this position they rebuild: finding places to live, putting their children in school, gaining employment, and making community. By every account Syrians have been productive members of the countries to which they have arrived. They have filled gaps in labor markets, despite obstacles related to credentialization. German commentators who have studied Syrians’ labor market contributions warn that repatriations would negatively affect the German economy.
The pursuit of refuge is not a quick affair. It involves human beings enduring unspeakable trauma, moving, finding a new place to rebuild. To forcibly remove them, to deny them refuge, is an immense cruelty. This is particularly the case because the situation inside Syria remains uncertain as the country continues to grapple with the injuries of war, sanctions, and ongoing Israeli aggression.
Syria Today
Despite the war and the horrific conditions in the country, many Syrians—those who were unwilling to continue to grapple with realities of displacement, were deported from other countries, or who felt that it was safe to return home—have done so. UNHCR reported that between 2016 and 2023, while the war was still ongoing, 391,488 people returned to Syria. Since December 8, 2024, according to the United Nations, some 115,000 Syrians have made the choice to return home. More Syrians are likely to do so. These returnees are arriving to a country that has immense potential but remains in the throes of an immense humanitarian crisis.
Even before the war, life in Syria was difficult. Economic prospects were limited. The climate crisis had hit Syria’s agricultural sector with a series of droughts. Liberalization by the Asaad regime privatized what were once public assets and reduced state subsidies for agriculture. This led Syrians to leave for work outside of the country; before the war 3 percent of the nation’s GDP came from labor remittances.
Syria’s economy reportedly shrank by 85 percent between 2011 and 2023.
The war, along with international sanctions, made the situation markedly worse: Syria’s economy reportedly shrank by 85 percent between 2011 and 2023. This led some to describe the war in Syria as a conflict that divided rich and poor. UNHCR estimates that 70 percent of the people within Syria need humanitarian assistance and that 90 percent of all Syrians live below the poverty line. Rising inflation, in which the cost of food baskets quadruple year to year, has left more than 12.9 million people food insecure. The war has cost people their livelihoods, and more than a third of Syrian children do not have access to education. Early marriage has become more common because of the economic insecurity that families face. What is more, a decimated infrastructure means that access to shelter, healthcare, and other services is severely hindered. Back in 2019, experts estimated the cost of rebuilding the country at between $250 and $400 billion—a cost that has surely risen significantly in the ensuing five years.
But adequate aid does not seem to be forthcoming. The same countries quick to arbitrate Syrians’ continuing right to residency and to suspend their asylum claims have not actively committed to economically supporting Syria’s transition. In fact, many of these countries are maintaining their sanctions in whole or in part, claiming to be holding off until they can be assured that HTS will commit to “no radicalization.” European officials have further said that sanctions will not be lifted until HTS proves that they will share power and governing inclusively, a restriction that imposes power and implies a position of moral superiority. The United States similarly eased some of its sanctions to allow humanitarian aid to enter but maintained the sanctions that have helped debilitate Syria’s economy, despite the end of the very regime that these sanctions were established to target.
What is more, Israeli aggression has repeatedly impacted Syria. Israel’s bombing of Lebanon last fall resulted in Syria receiving an estimated half a million displaced people, approximately 63 percent of whom are Syrian, while the remainder are either Lebanese or from other nationalities. Over half of those who fled into Syria were children. Within mere hours of HTS’s toppling of the Asaad regime, Israel carried out attacks on Syria’s military capabilities, destroying more than 70 percent of its naval and radar capacity. Israel also encroached on the Golan Heights buffer zone, capturing additional Syrian territory within it. Syria’s nascent leaders have little capacity to withstand this aggression from a country that has engaged in a belligerent and unfettered destruction of Gaza for the last fifteen months, funded by the United States.
Uncertain Futures
The future of Syria is uncertain. So too are the futures of the Syrians who traveled far from home, creating a diaspora of people who have, for the last 14 years, tried to rebuild a semblance of a life that they had lost. Today, countries simultaneously claim that it is too early to lift sanctions on Syria due to political uncertainty there and that it is time for Syrian asylees to return home.
These are the wrong political strategies. A stable, prosperous Syria requires investment in its future, a lifting of all sanctions, and aid, not just for humanitarian needs, but for rebuilding. Syria also needs remittances from people who have been able to build their lives abroad and are able to help support their loved ones back home.
In the meantime, asylum and TPS protections in the United States and Europe must stand. Syrians who have pending asylum and resettlement procedures must be allowed to continue paths that they set out on years earlier, on which they expended what little resources they had. People should not be deported or removed from the homes that they have built. They cannot be forced to travel back to a country that does not have the infrastructure to receive them, that is still under sanctions and just beginning to nurse the wounds of decades of dictatorship and unjust war. Syrians and Syria need international support, not more apathy and sanction.
The views expressed in this publication are the author’s own and do not necessarily reflect the position of Arab Center Washington DC, its staff, or its Board of Directors.
Featured image credit:Shutterstrock/kardinal41
