Many Americans are worried that if former President Donald Trump loses to Vice President Kamala Harris in the November 5 election, he and his Make American Great Again (MAGA) supporters will cry foul, and some may engage in violence. Almost two-thirds of Republicans believe that Trump won four years ago, and they may say the same thing this year if Harris wins. Trump himself has fed this red meat to his base, saying on several occasions that the only way he will lose is if the election is rigged.
A repeat of the violence at the US Capitol building on January 6, 2021, when legislators met to formally approve the electoral college results of President Joe Biden’s victory, is unlikely to occur because Biden will still be in office for the January 6, 2025 counting and certification of the 2024 results. Unlike Trump’s actions as president in January 2021, Biden is already overseeing heightened security measures for January 6 and will move quickly to provide security around this venerable institution and denounce and shut down violence. But there is a good chance that sporadic acts of violence could occur against other individuals and institutions. Violence is possible against Harris supporters, immigrants, minorities, and others if Trump loses and refuses to accept the results, and his diehard supporters vent their anger in dangerous ways.
The Erosion of Norms, Standards, and Decorum
One of the hallmarks of American democracy has been the peaceful transfer of power after elections. Although no politician likes to lose, for nearly two and a half centuries, with the exception of the events leading up to the Civil War in the early 1860s, the defeated presidential candidate has conceded the race to his opponent after most of the votes have been counted, often in a gracious way, as former Republican candidate John McCain did in 2008. Even when a candidate and his supporters have suspected foul play—for example, in the very tight 1960 presidential election, some of Richard Nixon’s Republican party supporters believed that Democratic Mayor Richard Daley rigged the vote count in Chicago in order for John F. Kennedy to carry the state of Illinois—there was no violence in the election aftermath. Indeed, none other than Nixon himself, who was known as “Tricky Dick” to his detractors and later had to resign in disgrace in 1974 because of the Watergate scandal, told a close confidant at the time that he would not contest the 1960 election outcome because “our country cannot afford the agony of a constitutional crisis.” Nixon seemed to believe that, in the interests of preserving American democracy, it was better to concede to Kennedy than to challenge the results.
Trump has thrown such commendable behavior out the window. Not only did he refuse to concede to Biden after the 2020 contest, in an election that was deemed not fraudulent by his own attorney general, William Barr, he even tried to pressure Georgia state officials shortly after the election to “find” him the necessary votes to win that state. Trump’s campaign filed scores of lawsuits to contest the results in various states, but they were all dismissed by the courts. Nonetheless, Trump and most of his supporters refused to accept the fact that Biden won the election, and Trump did not even attend Biden’s inauguration ceremony as is customary.
But the most egregious post-election action was the storming of the US Capitol by thousands of Trump’s supporters on January 6, 2021, to disrupt the formal count of the electoral college vote and to prevent the peaceful transfer of power to Biden. Trump had urged them on, even knowing that some were armed. It later came to light in congressional hearings that Trump watched television in the White House for several hours while his supporters were engaged in violence, and did not seem to care that his own Vice President Mike Pence, who had a constitutional duty to certify the electoral college results, was in danger from a mob chanting “hang Mike Pence.”
In the current election cycle, Trump has said repeatedly he would pardon the January 6 rioters, hundreds of whom have already been convicted by the courts, with many still serving jail time, and has called them “warriors.” Trump has even referred to January 6, 2021, a “day of love.”
In addition, Trump has lowered the bar on speech, charging that Harris has low intelligence and has been a “[expletive] vice president.” It is not surprising, therefore, that Trump’s supporters have echoed this and other profanities at his rallies and have demonized Harris and her supporters. Trump has mentioned that some religious leaders, who are part of his support base, have urged him to stop using such profanity, but suggested that his speeches would not be as effective, which his crowds love to hear. Trump also engages in ludicrous and harmful rhetoric by claiming that Haitian immigrants in Springfield, Ohio, are eating the pets of the residents of that town. Trump seems to have special animus for migrants from poor, non-white majority countries which, he claims, are emptying their societies of criminals and mentally impaired people and sending them to the United States.
Trump seems to have special animus for migrants from poor, non-white majority countries.
For her part, Harris has stated that she agrees with Trump’s former White House chief of staff, retired General John Kelly, that Trump fits the definition of a “fascist.” Even the democratic socialist US senator from Vermont, Bernie Sanders, has said he prefers not to use the word fascist when describing Trump. The derogatory labeling by Trump and Harris of each other is indicative of how nasty this close election has become.
Repeat of the January 6 Attack Is Unlikely…
Because Biden will still be president on January 6, 2025, he will be in charge, as head of the executive branch, of providing the necessary security to protect the Capitol building in case Trump loses and his supporters again try to pressure lawmakers not to certify the electoral college results. Already, there have been practice drills of 12 helicopters landing on US Capitol grounds to boost security in case rioters attempt to storm the Capitol again. But because so many of the January 6 insurrectionists have been sentenced to jail, and knowing that they would face a formidable security presence this time around, Trump’s diehard supporters are unlikely to repeat their 2021 actions.
…But Violence is Likely in Other Places
Nonetheless, emotions are so raw in this very tight presidential election (the polls suggest a dead heat, nearly all of which are within the margin of error) that if Trump loses, many of his supporters may claim that it was rigged and will demand “justice.” According to a January 2024 poll, about 66 percent of Trump supporters believed he won in 2020, implying that Biden is not a legitimate president. Teams of lawyers have been assembled by the Trump and Harris campaigns to report violations of the vote or to challenge the other side’s claims of fraud. In early August, the Republican-controlled state election board of Georgia adopted a rule that requires local election board members to conduct an undefined “reasonable inquiry” into any discrepancies before they can certify an election. The rule is so broad that the final election tally for the state could be held up for days.
Trump has stirred up his base into believing that he would only lose if the other side cheats.
In addition to such legal maneuvers is Trump’s inflammatory rhetoric in which he claims that the only way he will lose the election is if it is fraudulent. In a prerecorded video that was shown every night of the 2024 Republican convention, Trump said,“ The most important thing we have to do is protect the vote. You have to keep your eyes open because these people [Democrats] want to cheat and they do cheat, and frankly, it’s the only thing they do well.” Not surprisingly, even in the state of Virginia, which both Democrats and Republicans have won in recent years, only a little less than half of Trump supporters (48 percent) say they would be willing to accept a Harris presidency if she wins the election.
Trump has stirred up his base into believing that he would only lose if the other side cheats, frequently using an undefined “they,” such as “they are coming after you.” Trump’s MAGA supporters could attack election poll workers, those involved in the counting of ballots, and state elections officials who would certify a Harris victory.
In addition, immigrants could be targeted, and not just those who have entered or stayed in the country illegally. During the presidential debate, Trump claimed without evidence that “our elections are bad, and a lot of these illegal immigrants coming in, they’re trying to get them to vote.” Trump’s previous comments about immigrants “poisoning the blood” of the country as well as more recent comments that he (and his supporters) have made claiming falsely that funds for the victims of Hurricane Helene that severely affected the southern parts of Appalachia were being diverted to services for illegal immigrants may also encourage violence. In addition, because many minority group voters, like Black and Latino voters, may favor Harris over Trump, sporadic acts of violence directed at some of them could occur if Trump loses.
Warnings by Biden and Experts on Extremism
The past October, when Biden was asked about the upcoming election, he said he was confident it would be free and fair but added, “I don’t know whether it’ll be peaceful.” This comment was partly political, reflecting his belief that Trump is ginning up his base to contest the election result if he loses to Harris. But it also may reflect briefings that the president has received from law enforcement agencies about the potential for violence.
Indeed, experts who have been monitoring extremist groups ahead of the election, such as those from the Global Project Against Hate and Extremism (GPAHE), have highlighted a boost in online chatter that mirrored the situation in the run-up to the 2020 vote and the January 6 attack. In October, GPAHE noted that violent rhetoric related to election denialism has increased significantly on extremist online platforms.
There is boost in online chatter that mirrors the situation in the run-up to the 2020 vote and the January 6 attack.
On one such platform, Gab, users have threatened those alleged to have engaged in election fraud with treason, and called for “firing squads” or “the rope” to deal with them. Other extremist posts on Telegram have used election denialism to justify acts of violence, for example urging users to “shoot to kill any illegal voters.” Although organized extremist groups undoubtedly know that they are being monitored by law enforcement agencies, rhetoric on such platforms may inspire so-called lone wolves to commit individual acts of violence.
And Worry by Ordinary Americans
According to recent polling, about 57 percent of Americans in battleground states are very or somewhat worried that Trump supporters will turn to violence if he loses. These sentiments and threats have led to increased security for voters, election workers, and election infrastructure in these and other states. The Dean of the Schar School of Policy and Government at George Mason University, Mark Rozell, has said that these polling numbers underscore that “we cannot assume that people will accept the legitimacy of the election, and that a peaceful transfer of power is something that just automatically happens here.”
That indeed is a sad reflection of politics in the United States at present. It is hoped that government institutions will not only work to protect citizens in this highly charged atmosphere but also will be a hedge against dubious charges of fraud such as the claim that illegal immigrants are voting. But it will also take courageous individual public servants to stand their ground. Some of them did so last time, and the hope is that they will do so again. A presidential election marred by intimidation and violence will not only be a blight on America’s democracy at home but also will hurt its standing abroad.
The views expressed in this publication are the author’s own and do not necessarily reflect the position of Arab Center Washington DC, its staff, or its Board of Directors.
Featured image credit: Shutterstock/Sebastian Portillo
