Speakers
Yasmine Farouk
Project Director, Gulf and Arabian Peninsula, International Crisis Group
Shana Marshall
Assistant Research Professor of International Affairs; Associate Director of the Institute for Middle East Studies, Elliott School of International Affairs
Trita Parsi
Executive Vice President, Quincy Institute for Responsible Statecraft
Moderator
About the Webinar
Since February 28, the US-Israel war on Iran has reshaped the Middle East’s security landscape, intensifying longstanding questions about regional security arrangements and reliance on US security guarantees, especially among the Gulf states. Israel’s September 2025 attack on Qatar had already heightened concerns about the limits of those guarantees, and Saudi Arabia and Pakistan later formalized a bilateral mutual defense agreement. Egypt also reportedly proposed, albeit unsuccessfully, a NATO-style Arab defense force. Iranian attacks on Gulf states and US military bases have since exposed vulnerabilities in the region’s existing security framework and the limits of dependence on the United States, raising further questions about the future role of the US military presence in the Middle East. In July, Saudi Arabia and 13 other countries announced the creation of a maritime military alliance to safeguard freedom of navigation through vital waterways like the Bab al-Mandeb Strait, the Red Sea, the Strait of Hormuz, Arabian Sea, and the Gulf of Aden. On August 7, Saudi Arabia, Turkey, and Pakistan signed the Mecca Joint Defense Agreement, under which an armed attack on one country would be considered an attack on all three. The pact signals the beginning of a new regional security architecture, and may eventually include other regional states, with Egypt now considering joining.
Arab Center Washington DC and the Quincy Institute for Responsible Statecraft are convening a panel of experts to examine these developments and their implications for the region’s evolving security architecture. The panel will address several key questions, including: How has the Iran war changed the balance of power in the Middle East and North Africa? What foreign policy calculations and security repositioning are taking place by different states in the region? How significant is the Mecca agreement beyond symbolism and what could it mean for future conflicts? Can this new order restrain both Iran and Israel’s military postures across the region? Is a new order emerging with Saudi Arabia as its center of gravity? How might other states, including Egypt and Jordan, respond to these shifting alignments? Will these emerging arrangements reduce countries’ dependence on US security guarantees, or will they primarily supplement existing partnerships with Washington? And what strategic calculations is the United States considering, including the future of US military bases in the region?
Featured image credit: SPA
