After nearly two months of ceasefire, the Israeli government resumed its genocidal campaign in Gaza in March 2025. The Israeli government’s decision was not surprising. Since the start of the ground invasion of Gaza in November 2023, Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu aimed for two interconnected objectives: First, to prolong the war as a tactic to remain in power, and second, to reshape the reality in Gaza in a manner consistent with his (and his allies’) ideological beliefs.
The prolongation of the war has served a dual purpose for the prime minster: to maintain his grip on power, considering his uncertain political prospects in a future election, and to provide a public distraction and delay to the pending corruption cases against him. While under Israeli law a sitting prime minister does not have immunity from prosecution, during his ongoing trial Netanyahu can use the powers of his office and national security claims to delay legal proceedings and possibly to stay out of prison if he is convicted. In addition, reshaping the Gaza Strip both geographically and demographically—carving out territory for Israel, shrinking the population through war, and forcing Gazans to relocate within and perhaps outside of the enclave—serves Netanyahu’s survival interests as well as his ideological priorities and, crucially, those of his coalition partners. Israel’s most right-wing government ever has never given up on its intention of resettling Israelis in the Strip or, at the very least, of permanently occupying parts of Gaza.
Corruption Cases
Netanyahu’s most immediate concern is delaying or ending the court cases against him for breach of trust, fraud, and bribery. Since the start of these legal proceedings in May 2020, his central focus has been evading judicial accountability. The current Gaza war afforded the prime minister a unique strategic opening, which he has leveraged effectively. The war forced the court to postpone his hearings for more than 14 months. In February of 2025, Netanyahu asked the court to reduce his testimony from three to two days per week, citing “changing security circumstances for the country’s very future.” The courts accepted his request. When Israel broke the ceasefire in March 2025, the judicial proceedings were postponed again. Lawyers in the case say that Netanyahu’s testimony could be extended until 2026. Thus, to analyze Netanyahu’s behavior, one must understand his priorities and the lenses through which he sees reality. Netanyahu is convinced that a “deep state” cabal made up of bureaucrats, jurists, and other supposed agitators want to bring him down prosecuting him on trumped-up charges because they cannot defeat him at the ballot box.
The Judicial Overhaul
Netanyahu’s maneuvering around his corruption cases, his paranoia about a “deep state witch hunt,” and the return to war propelled him to continue his pre-October 7 push to reshape Israel’s judicial branch. For more than two years, the Netanyahu government has aimed to introduce a series of laws that would limit the power of the judicial branch and increase the responsibilities of the executive. The “judicial overhaul,” as it became known, captured the attention of Israelis from January 2023 until the start of the war. What some people may have forgotten is that the judicial overhaul was put into full gear after Netanyahu was out of power between 2021 and 2022. Upon his return to office in December 2022, Netanyahu decided he would not risk losing office while under investigation again.
To make sure he will not be vulnerable to such prosecution, he began passing controversial laws and, more important for him, replacing high-ranking bureaucratic officials in sensitive roles—referred to in Israel as “the gatekeepers of democracy”—with more ideologically friendly and politically amenable appointees. This strategy reached new heights in March 2025 when the prime minister announced the ousting of the head of internal intelligence (Shin Bet) and made his intention clear to fire the attorney general in the coming weeks. The previous government of Naftali Bennett and Yair Lapid had appointed both “gatekeepers.” Additionally, the prime minister’s parliamentary coalition is preparing a bill that would make voter suppression of Palestinian citizens of Israel much easier, making the rise of any real alternative to Netanyahu more difficult, as any such candidate would need the votes of Palestinian citizens to win.
The return to war last month allowed Netanyahu to rid himself of some bureaucrats in his war cabinet and replace them with ideological allies who would not push back against his war aims. The dismissal of the head of Shin Bet, which occurred after the resignation of the Israel Defense Forces (IDF) chief of staff, is the beginning of a series of appointments of officials that will pursue Netanyahu’s Gaza goals.
The Far-Right Element
Netanyahu’s rejectionist and colonialist outlook towards Palestinian existence in historic Palestine is not new. But the events of October 7, 2023, presented him with a unique opportunity to fulfill as many of his and his political allies’ ideological aims as possible. Netanyahu has always presented himself as a stalwart hawk and an ideologue. He has also situated himself as a prime minister who would never “give up territory”—an Israeli euphemism for rejecting compliance with international law regarding the occupation. For Netanyahu, the war will conclude with either the permanent occupation of Gaza territory or the re-establishment of Israeli settlements there, or both.
Far-right political calculations are behind Netanyahu’s refusal to reach a permanent ceasefire in Gaza.
The fact that Netanyahu’s current government includes the most extremist elements of the settler movement reinforces the belief in Israel that far-right political calculations are behind Netanyahu’s refusal to reach a permanent ceasefire in Gaza. Throughout the war, Netanyahu has been very attentive to his two far-right partners: Finance Minister Bezalel Smotrich from the Religious Zionist Party and National Security Minister Itamar Ben-Gvir from the Jewish Power Party. Both Smotrich and Ben-Gvir have been clear in their intention to reject any ceasefire deal in Gaza that does not give Israel full military control of the Strip and the chance to rebuild settlements and ethnically cleanse Palestinians. This is the main reason the Israeli government has not presented a cohesive “day after” plan to accommodate the interests of the previous American administration, European allies, and Arab countries.
In fact, the ceasefire signed in January 2025 was similar to the deal that President Joe Biden proposed in May 2024, yet due to Netanyahu’s dependence on his far-right partners, he postponed accepting it for many months, during which time Israel destroyed southern Gaza and killed thousands of civilians. Netanyahu’s dependence on his coalition partners was even more evident in March 2025, when Israel broke the ceasefire, allowing Ben-Gvir to return to the coalition after he left it in January in protest against the signing of the ceasefire and captive-exchange agreement. Netanyahu cannot form an alternative coalition without Smotrich and Ben-Gvir, who jointly control the third-largest caucus in the Knesset. Smotrich in particular has been clear since the signing of the ceasefire deal in January that Israel will eventually return to war. He has also stated that the war will not end without a permanent Israeli presence in Gaza.
The Regional Dynamics
Netanyahu’s survival calculations and his dependence on Smotrich and Ben-Gvir have frustrated
Israel’s relationship with many of the “moderate Sunni states,” as they are known in the Hebrew-language media. Israeli governments of the last 15 years built their entire regional strategy on closer ties with a select number of “moderate” Arab states: Bahrain, Egypt, Jordan, Morocco, Saudi Arabia, and the United Arab Emirates. These nations and Israel share an interest in opposing political Islam. The Arab nations, however, see the Palestinian Authority as the sole viable alternative to Hamas rule in Gaza, a solution Netanyahu strongly rejects. Netanyahu’s decision to keep the IDF in parts of southern Lebanon and to occupy additional Syrian territory in the Golan Heights in February 2025Israel’s attempts to destabilize Syria by fomenting sectarian strife, have also angered many Arab government, who prioritize stability in Damascus. By antagonizing “moderate” Arab rulers, Netanyahu jeopardizes his greatest success as prime minister: strengthening ties with regional actors through the US-brokered Abraham Accords.
Indeed, Netanyahu’s actions are further destabilizing the region. In addition to the occupation of Palestine and the Golan Heights, as of April 2025, Israeli occupation forces have an active presence in southern Syria. And Israel is expected to allow provocative “tourist visits” for Israeli civilians in Syrian territory seized after the fall of the Assad regime. While many of Israel’s Arab allies may consider these stances unnecessary provocations, Netanyahu apparently believes that such moves will help shore up his supporters and coalition partners and thus advance his political survival.
The Global Order
The last year and a half may have been a geopolitical challenge for Israel, but for its prime minister, it has been an opportunity for pursuing long-desired strategies in Gaza and the broader region and boosting his chances of political survival. An end to the war would force an unpopular prime minister to stand the test of the ballot box, because ending the fighting without achieving the far-right’s strategic aims for Gaza likely would cause key coalition partners to defect, bringing down his government and causing him to risk an election. Thus, to prevent any movement towards a lasting ceasefire, Netanyahu has used every opportunity to prolong the negotiations and to keep the war going. For example, he chose to dismiss a December 2023 regional initiative aimed at restoring Palestinian Authority rule in Gaza. In May 2024, he prioritized the Rafah invasion over a ceasefire whose terms closely resembled the eventual January 2025 agreement.
Netanyahu’s criminal behavior in Gaza and his Machiavellian maneuvers on the domestic front may seem desperate. In truth, Israel’s behavior over the last year and a half is reflective of the country’s historic policy towards the Palestinians and their attempts at exercising their own agency. The gross disregard for human life, the intentional war crimes, and the attacks against international organizations such as the United Nations, the International Criminal Court, and humanitarian aid organizations have been at the center of Israel’s policies for decades.
The main change that Netanyahu brought is his sheer disregard for Israel’s standing in the world
The main change that Netanyahu brought is his sheer disregard for Israel’s standing in the world. Just as he dismisses domestic dissent, he also dismisses the concerns of Israel’s allies in the West and the Arab world. As a right-wing ideologue, Netanyahu aims to bring down the remnants of “liberal institutions” that he believes weaken Israel. The proposal to ethnically cleanse the Gaza Strip promoted by US President Donald Trump—and enthusiastically endorsed by the prime minister—serves both a short-term survival interest for Netanyahu and a long-term ideological goal.
Ethnic cleansing and demographic reengineering have been at the center of Zionist policies for the past 77 years. From a Zionist perspective, Trump’s ethnic cleansing proposal is a historic opportunity to reshape the dynamics of Israel’s rule both geographically and demographically. The Israeli defense minister has already established an agency to deal with the matter, and the Israeli government is expected to continue with the efforts despite its seeming improbability and illegality. As such, the Israeli government’s assertion that it will not build settlements in Gaza should be viewed with doubt. While the prime minister realizes that such a move could destabilize relationships with allies and lead to internal strife with the liberal-Zionist opposition, building settlements in Gaza would guarantee Netanyahu’s alliance with Ben-Gvir and Smotrich and allow Netanyahu to reshape his legacy among his right-wing camp after the failures of October 7.
The One-Man Obstacle
Since the start of the Gaza war, Netanyahu has failed to achieve most of his stated objectives. He failed to destroy Hamas’s rule or even to prevent it from being a viable security threat. He has also failed to present an acceptable alternative “day after” plan to Israel’s allies. Most important, he has failed so far to accommodate the interests of his more extremist partners regarding permanent Israeli military and civilian presence in the Gaza Strip. That being said, Netanyahu has succeeded for now in his ultimate goal of political survival.
In his quest to survive in office, Netanyahu will continue to kill Gazans and to destabilize the region and the world. Arab countries cooperating with Israel must come to understand that Netanyahu is not interested in accommodating their national interests. The continued slaughter of Palestinians in Gaza, the attempts to destabilize Egypt and Jordan through continued insistence on ethnic cleansing, and the military incursions into and occupations of Syria and Lebanon do not contribute to the Abraham Accords’ aims of regional stability and prosperity.
As long as Arab and western states do not confront Israel assertively on the international stage, Netanyahu will only intensify his destabilizing policies in the region. French President Emmanuel Macron’s recent hint at France’s potential recognition of a Palestinian state is a good start, but is nowhere near assertive enough. Palestinians in the occupied territories need international protection as Israel seeks to obliterate both the Gaza Strip and the West Bank especially the refugee camps in the north.
Furthermore, Netanyahu’s recent visits to Hungary and the United States served to undermine the ICC and its arrest warrant against him. Keeping Netanyahu as a “pariah” in most world capitals could help limit his maneuvering abilities and force him to accept a ceasefire deal. Global and regional powers striving for stability and prosperity should aim for the implementation of international law.
With Donald Trump back in the White House, Netanyahu may believe that unlimited US support for his expansionist aims in Gaza, the West Bank, Lebanon, and Syria will bolster his rule and perhaps even deliver the ultimate prize to secure his power and legacy and deliver an Israel-Saudi peace accord. Netanyahu, Israel’s longest-serving prime minister and the dominant leader of the country’s last three decades, has so far succeeded at what some thought was an improbable political survival after the catastrophe of October 7 and his corruption cases. But there is still room for unpredictably. Any number of factors—Israeli public opinion overwhelmingly demanding the hostages returned and the Gaza war over; Netanyahu’s aggressive policies in Syria, Lebanon, Gaza, and the West Bank backfiring on Israel; a US-Iran deal that his coalition opposes; an erosion of Trump’s blank-check support, or more—could reverse the prime minister’s fortunes and trigger a long-overdue reckoning.
Thair Abu Ras completed his PhD in the Department of Government and Politics at University of Maryland in February 2025. His research focuses on Palestinian politics in Israel.
The views expressed in this publication are the author’s own and do not necessarily reflect the position of Arab Center Washington DC, its staff, or its Board of Directors.
Featured image credit: Avi Ohayon, GPO
