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- Policy AnalysisTurkeyRegional Relations and Geopolitics
Turkey Is Not an Actor in the Gaza Conflict
Aug 21, 2024Salim ÇevikPrior to the Hamas attack on October 7, Turkey was in the process of political reconciliation with Israel. Israeli President Isaac Herzog visited Turkey in 202…
- Policy AnalysisTurkeyRegional Relations and Geopolitics
Erdoğan’s Renewed Push for Syria Reconciliation: Domestic Pressures and Regional Dynamics
Jul 25, 2024Salim ÇevikTurkish President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan made his most explicit appeal yet to Syrian President Bashar al-Assad. Setting a high bar for the future of relations, E…
- Policy AnalysisJordanRegional Relations and Geopolitics
The Gaza War and Threats to Jordan’s Domestic and Regional Stability
Jul 9, 2024Curtis RyanJordanians of all walks of life have watched the relentless war in Gaza with deepening alarm. By latest count, at least 38,000 Palestinians have been killed, m…
- Policy AnalysisUAERegional Relations and Geopolitics
UAE Restricts US Military Strikes from Its Territory
May 22, 2024Gregory AftandilianFearing an attack by Iran or its allied militias in the region, the United Arab Emirates (UAE) has restricted US military aircraft from targeting these proxy g…
- Policy AnalysisPalestine/IsraelRegional Relations and Geopolitics
Seven Months of War on Gaza, Israel Is in International Distress
May 17, 2024Mtanes ShihadehThe Israeli government has described the war on Gaza since last October as an “existential war and a second war of independence.” Israel’s official and public …
- Policy AnalysisYemenConflicts and Conflict Resolution
Divergent Saudi-Emirati Agendas Cripple Yemen’s Presidential Leadership Council
May 15, 2024Afrah NasserTwo years into its existence, Yemen’s Presidential Leadership Council (PLC) still has not effectively addressed critical problems facing the country: a dire ec…
- Policy AnalysisPalestine/IsraelConflicts and Conflict Resolution
Middle East Trajectories Emanating from the War on Gaza
May 2, 2024Nabeel A. KhouryIsrael’s still unfolding war on Gaza is finishing its seventh month with no let-up in sight. The Palestinian death toll from Israeli operations has surpassed 3…
- Policy AnalysisThe Arabian Peninsula and The GulfConflicts and Conflict Resolution
Gulf Arab States Avoid Iran-Israel Tensions
Apr 25, 2024Kristian Coates UlrichsenYears of shadow conflict between Israel and Iran, which included targeted assassinations as well as cyberattacks, gave way in April to direct confrontation and…
- Policy AnalysisPalestine/IsraelConflicts and Conflict Resolution
Iran’s Resistance Strategy After Israel’s Damascus Attack
Apr 12, 2024Daniel BrumbergDaniel Brumberg discusses whether Iran and Israel are on their way to a direct confrontation after the latter’s attack on the Iranian consulate’s annex in Dama…
- ViewpointPalestine/IsraelRegional Relations and Geopolitics
Whither the Arab World from What is Happening in Gaza?
Mar 20, 2024Imad K. HarbIsrael’s war on Gaza has recently entered its sixth straight month with no respite or apparent possibility of a permanent ceasefire that could spare the lives …
- Policy AnalysisSaudi ArabiaRegional Relations and Geopolitics
Saudi Arabia May Be Taking Center Stage in Post-Gaza Peace
Feb 28, 2024Kristian Coates UlrichsenWith Israel’s war on Gaza in its fifth month amid ongoing international pressure for a ceasefire, Saudi Arabia has become the focus of much attention over what…
- Policy AnalysisPalestine/IsraelConflicts and Conflict Resolution
Arab States Have Supported and Shunned Hamas in the Gaza War
Feb 21, 2024Rami G. KhouriFour months of warfare between Israel and Hamas have generated regional and global dynamics that will shape the Middle East for decades. But the war in Gaza ha…
- ViewpointSomaliaRegional Relations and Geopolitics
The Dangerous Chipping Away of Somalia’s Sovereignty
Feb 16, 2024Imad K. HarbOn New Year’s Day, Ethiopia’s Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed and the president of Somalia’s breakaway federated state of Somaliland Muse Bihi Abdi signed a Memorand…
- Policy AnalysisTurkeyRegional Relations and Geopolitics
Turkish-Gulf Relations in the Context of Regional Reconciliation
Feb 14, 2024Salim ÇevikSince 2021, Turkey has been resetting its policies in the Middle East and has started to reconcile with its rivals in the previous decade—Egypt, Israel, Saudi …
- Policy AnalysisJordanRegional Relations and Geopolitics
From Gaza to the Syrian Border, Jordan Is Increasingly in the Line of Fire
Feb 9, 2024Curtis RyanSince Israel launched its current war on Gaza last October, Jordanians have been closely watching the enclave, and the rising tensions in the region, with deep…
- Policy AnalysisPalestine/IsraelRegional Relations and Geopolitics
Normalization Survives Despite the Gaza War
Jan 11, 2024Imad K. HarbThe current Israeli war on Gaza, now well into its fourth deadly month, has cast a calamitous shadow over the lives of Palestinians and Israelis, as well as ov…
- Policy AnalysisThe Arab WorldRegional Relations and Geopolitics
Important Considerations for the Middle East in 2024
Jan 10, 2024Yara M. Asi Daniel Brumberg Imad K. Harb Khalil E. Jahshan Tamara Kharroub Laurie King Dana El Kurd Yousef MunayyerThe October 7 Hamas attack on Israel and Israel’s subsequent invasion of the Gaza Strip will play a major role in shaping what unfolds in the Middle East in 20…
- Policy AnalysisRegional Relations and Geopolitics
The Far East Pivots to the Middle East
Jan 3, 2024Nabeel A. KhouryThe phrase “Pivot to the East,” popularized during the Obama administration, signified a realization of the rising importance of China and of growing US intere…
- Policy AnalysisPalestine/IsraelRegional Relations and Geopolitics
Russia and China on Gaza: Sidelined, Lurking—or Winning?
Dec 22, 2023Charles W. DunneIt wasn’t that long ago that Russia and China seemed to dominate the Middle East, and the United States was on the brink of relegation to the sidelines.Russia …
- ViewpointPalestine/IsraelConflicts and Conflict Resolution
Expand the Arab Peace Initiative to Increase Its Chances of Success
Dec 7, 2023Rami G. KhouriSome in the Arab region and the international community seem to expect that after the Israeli war on Gaza and the destruction of most life systems in the Strip…
- Policy AnalysisTurkeyRegional Relations and Geopolitics
Erdoğan, Gaza, and Turkey’s Regional Reconciliation
Nov 30, 2023Salim ÇevikTurkish President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan's first statements following the October 7 Hamas attack on Israel and the subsequent Israeli war on the Gaza Strip were …
- Policy AnalysisIranRegional Relations and Geopolitics
Hamas’s “Al-Aqsa Flood” Challenges Iran’s Axis of Resistance
Nov 27, 2023Daniel BrumbergWhile the Biden administration, with Qatar’s support, has succeeded in securing a deal with Israel and Hamas for a combat “pause,” it remains to be seen if thi…
- Policy AnalysisThe Arabian Peninsula and The GulfRegional Relations and Geopolitics
GCC States and the War on Gaza: Positions, Perceptions, and Interests
Nov 22, 2023Kristian Coates UlrichsenThe war on Gaza has for all intents and purposes reinstated the centrality of the Palestinian issue to the regional and international politics of the Middle Ea…
- ViewpointLebanonConflicts and Conflict Resolution
Hezbollah Reluctantly Awaits Israel’s Decision on War
Nov 17, 2023Imad K. HarbThe frontline on the Lebanese-Israeli border continues to witness the real skirmishes of an undeclared war between Israel and Hezbollah. Reciprocal attacks bet…
- Policy AnalysisSyriaRegional Relations and Geopolitics
Does Syria Have a Role in the Israel-Hamas Conflict?
Nov 6, 2023Patricia KaramAs the war between Israel and Hamas rages, the Middle East is bracing for a wider, multi-front regional conflict that will have serious repercussions for the g…
- Policy AnalysisLevantRegional Relations and Geopolitics
Erdoǧan’s Calculations as the Israel-Gaza Conflict Escalates
Oct 25, 2023Mustafa GurbuzOn October 20, during Friday prayers at the historic Hagia Sophia Mosque in Istanbul, Ali Erbas, the head of Turkey's state-run religious affairs directorate, …
- Policy AnalysisLevantConflicts and Conflict Resolution
Will Saudi Arabia Renew the “Arab Peace Initiative” as the Middle East Seethes?
Oct 23, 2023Daniel BrumbergWhether Hamas’s October 7 assault has ended whatever prospects existed for forging diplomatic relations between Israel and Saudi Arabia remains to be seen. The…
- Policy AnalysisIranRegional Relations and Geopolitics
On the Limits of Iran’s Policy of “Maximum Tactical Flexibility”
Oct 13, 2023Daniel BrumbergAt some point, the tactical balls Tehran has been juggling could fall to the ground with unpredictable or dangerous strategic results.
- Policy AnalysisPalestine/IsraelRegional Relations and Geopolitics
Saudi-Israeli Normalization and the Hamas Attack
Oct 11, 2023Kristian Coates UlrichsenWhen Saudi Arabian Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman (MBS) sat down on September 20 with Brett Baier of Fox News for his first English-language television inter…
- Policy AnalysisLibyaRegional Relations and Geopolitics
The Recent Libya-Israel Debacle Is Symptomatic of Larger Problems
Sep 13, 2023Gregory AftandilianThe controversy and severe public backlash surrounding news of a late-August meeting between the Libyan and Israeli foreign ministers in Rome is symptomatic of…
- Policy AnalysisPalestine/IsraelUS Foreign Policy
Assessing the Abraham Accords, Three Years On
Aug 31, 2023Dana El KurdArab-Israeli normalization is one of those curious policy areas where the Biden administration has enthusiastically pursued its predecessor’s positions, even i…
- Policy AnalysisSaudi ArabiaUS Foreign Policy
The Saudi-Israeli Normalization Gambit: Deal or No Deal?
Aug 30, 2023Khalil E. JahshanAfter weeks of conflicting accounts from columnists and journalists about the outcome of the Biden administration’s intensive shuttle diplomacy aimed at convin…
- Policy AnalysisSaudi ArabiaUS Foreign Policy
US Negotiations for a Tripartite Agreement with Saudi Arabia and Israel: Context and Calculations
Aug 14, 2023Arab Center for Research and Policy StudiesSaudi Arabia and the United States are conducting complex negotiations in order to achieve a tripartite agreement that would include normalization between the …
- Policy AnalysisTurkeyRegional Relations and Geopolitics
Erdoğan Seeks Better Relations with the West after His Reelection
Aug 7, 2023Salim ÇevikTurkish President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan seems to have changed course on his country’s foreign relations. At the last NATO summit in Vilnius, Lithuania, he final…
- Policy AnalysisIraqDemocracy and Governance
Iran’s Hardliners on the March: The Quiet Before the Storm?
Aug 3, 2023Daniel BrumbergThe recent redeployment of Iran’s dreaded “morality police” signals much more than a victory for the country’s hardliners. Instead, it seems to be part and par…
- Policy AnalysisSaudi ArabiaRegional Relations and Geopolitics
The UAE-Saudi Arabia Rivalry Becomes a Rift
Jul 6, 2023Charles W. DunneSaudi Arabia and the UAE are waging a quiet struggle to determine who will emerge as the Arabian Gulf’s—and maybe the Arab world’s—preeminent power.
- Policy AnalysisSaudi ArabiaUS Foreign Policy
Saudi-US Relations in a Changing Global and Regional Landscape
Jun 29, 2023Kristian Coates UlrichsenKristian Coates Ulrichsen discusses the current state of Saudi-US relations as Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman seeks to chart a new course in domestic and for…
- Policy AnalysisPalestine/IsraelInternational Law
Israel’s Practices and Its “Respect” for Jordan’s Role in Jerusalem: A Legal Study
Jun 27, 2023Anis Fawzi KassimMany observers have objected to the Abraham Accords that were signed between Israel and various Arab states, each for their own reasons. I myself staunchly opp…
- Policy AnalysisIranRegional Relations and Geopolitics
Despite US Efforts, Iran is Ascendant
Jun 21, 2023Charles W. DunneIran today is not nearly as isolated as Washington had hoped and it has scored some impressive successes in advancing its regional agenda.
- Policy AnalysisEgyptRegional Relations and Geopolitics
Egypt and Iran: A Quest for Normalized Ties Amid Significant Obstacles
Jun 9, 2023Khalil Al-AnaniEgypt and Iran appear to be moving toward a closer relationship and a mending of ties. In recent months, officials from both countries have engaged in multiple…
- Policy AnalysisMoroccoDemocracy and Governance
Morocco’s Concerning Domestic and Foreign Policies
Jun 7, 2023Imad K. HarbAs Morocco works to become a pivotal power in northwest Africa’s security sphere, it continues to suffer from what can be seen as self-inflicted wounds caused …
- Policy AnalysisSaudi ArabiaRegional Relations and Geopolitics
The Jeddah Arab League Summit: MBS’s Final Crowning
May 31, 2023Imad K. HarbThe 32nd Arab League Summit was little more than the final crowning of Saudi Arabia’s Crown Prince as the leader of the current Arab political order.
- Policy AnalysisSudanConflicts and Conflict Resolution
The Sudan Crisis: How Regional Actors’ Competing Interests Fuel the Conflict
May 11, 2023Khalil Al-AnaniThe outbreak of military clashes between the Sudanese Army and the paramilitary Rapid Support Forces (RSF), which have resulted in the deaths of hundreds and t…
- Policy AnalysisYemenConflicts and Conflict Resolution
The Thorny Relationship between Yemen’s Government and the Southern Transitional Council
May 3, 2023Afrah NasserIn Yemen, the Southern Movement calling for separation between the North and South of Yemen is controversial. For those who oppose it, it is a simple secession…
- Policy AnalysisPalestine/IsraelRegional Relations and Geopolitics
Israel’s Normalization with Arab States Slows as Repression of Palestinians Rises
Apr 19, 2023Gregory AftandilianIsrael’s extreme right-wing government and its draconian policies toward the Palestinians have slowed down efforts to expand the so-called Abraham Accords, a p…
- Policy AnalysisSyriaJustice, Equality, and Human Rights
What Does Normalization with Assad Mean for Accountability and a Political Resolution?
Apr 18, 2023Patricia KaramAgainst the backdrop of Syria’s impending return to the Arab fold, French judges this month ordered three high-ranking Syrian intelligence officers to stand tr…
- ViewpointSudanDemocracy and Governance
Sudan’s Transitional Process Is Dead and Buried
Apr 17, 2023Imad K. HarbIt would be very difficult to consider the ongoing intra-military conflict in Sudan as a struggle to advance the cause of democratic development in the country…
- ViewpointEgyptThe War in Ukraine
The Fallout of Sisi’s Gambit with Russia
Apr 14, 2023Khalil Al-AnaniA leaked US intelligence document has revealed that Egypt's President Abdel Fattah el-Sisi allegedly instructed officials to secretly produce and ship rockets,…
- Policy AnalysisEgyptRegional Relations and Geopolitics
Geopolitics of Small Islands: The Stalemate of Tiran and Sanafir’s Transfer Impacts Egypt-Saudi Relations
Mar 29, 2023Khalil Al-AnaniIn June 2017, Egyptian President Abdel Fattah el-Sisi consented to ceding sovereignty over the islands of Tiran and Sanafir to Saudi Arabia. However, nearly si…
- Policy AnalysisTurkeyConflicts and Conflict Resolution
Obstacles to a Turkey-Syria Reconciliation
Mar 29, 2023Salim ÇevikSyrian President Bashar al-Assad paid an important visit to Moscow in mid-March 2023. One of the main agenda items was the Turkish-Syrian reconciliation that R…
- Policy AnalysisSyriaRegional Relations and Geopolitics
Arab States Are Normalizing with Syria’s Assad Regime
Mar 28, 2023Gregory AftandilianTaking advantage of the devastating earthquake that ravaged parts of northwestern Syria in February, Syrian President Bashar al-Assad has tried to use the trag…
- Policy AnalysisThe Arabian Peninsula and The GulfRegional Relations and Geopolitics
The GCC Is On Board with the Saudi-Iran Agreement
Mar 27, 2023Kristian Coates UlrichsenThe signing of a joint trilateral statement by senior national security officials from Saudi Arabia and Iran in the presence of Chinese officials in Beijing on…
- Policy AnalysisYemenConflicts and Conflict Resolution
Yemen and the Saudi-Iran Rapprochement
Mar 22, 2023Nabeel A. KhouryIn the closing scene of the 1942 film Casablanca, Humphrey Bogart, walking off into the fog with his occasional nemesis as they plan their next move together, …
- Policy AnalysisLebanonRegional Relations and Geopolitics
Lebanon and Syria and the Saudi-Iran Detente
Mar 21, 2023Imad K. HarbThe recent China-brokered agreement between Saudi Arabia and the Islamic Republic of Iran is expected to have a de-escalating effect on many issues in the Midd…
- Policy AnalysisThe Arabian Peninsula and The GulfRegional Relations and Geopolitics
China as Middle East Matchmaker
Mar 16, 2023Daniel BrumbergWhile the central role that China recently played in renewing diplomatic relations between Iran and Saudi Arabia underscores the United States’ declining influ…
- Policy AnalysisOmanRegional Relations and Geopolitics
Walking a Tightrope: Oman and Normalization with Israel
Mar 7, 2023Imad K. HarbAs the mechanisms of normalization between Israel and the United Arab Emirates, Bahrain, Morocco, and Sudan continue to take shape, other Arab states are ponde…
- Policy AnalysisLibyaRegional Relations and Geopolitics
Impacting Elusive Transitions: Egypt’s Policy Toward Sudan and Libya
Mar 1, 2023Khalil Al-AnaniThe recent political developments in Sudan and Libya have generated some optimism for a potential resolution to the protracted political crises that have plagu…
- Policy AnalysisNorth AfricaClimate and Environment
Green Power Politics in North African Countries: Continuity or Change?
Mar 1, 2023Achref ChibaniIn 2023, environmental and climate issues will again be at the top of the policy agenda in the Middle East and North Africa. The upcoming COP28 climate confere…
- Policy AnalysisSyriaSecurity and Defense
Syrian Kurds Are Hoping for, but Not Banking On, Continued US Partnership
Feb 24, 2023Gregory AftandilianThe massive earthquake that struck southern Turkey and northwestern Syria has given the Syrian Kurds a reprieve from a possible Turkish military invasion of ar…
- Policy AnalysisIraqDemocracy and Governance
Iraqi Prime Minister al-Sudani Upstages His Benefactors in the Coordination Framework
Jan 31, 2023Rend Al-RahimIraqi Prime Minister Mohammed Shia’ al-Sudani, who was sworn in on October 27, 2022, has nearly completed the first 100 days of his tenure. In this short perio…
- Policy AnalysisEgyptRegional Relations and Geopolitics
Egypt’s Strategic Partnership with China: Opportunities and Implications
Jan 27, 2023Khalil Al-AnaniOn December 8, 2022, Egyptian President Abdel Fattah el-Sisi met with his Chinese counterpart, President Xi Jinping, on the sidelines of the inaugural China-Ar…
- Policy AnalysisTurkeyRegional Relations and Geopolitics
Turkey Faces a Dilemma in its Foreign Policy Toward Libya
Jan 24, 2023Mustafa GurbuzOn January 9, 2023, a Libyan court suspended an energy exploration deal between Turkey and Libya’s Tripoli-based Government of National Unity (GNU) that was or…
- Policy AnalysisIraqRegional Relations and Geopolitics
Depoliticizing Iraq-Gulf Relations Through Soccer
Jan 11, 2023Zeidon AlkinaniIraq is defying its reputation and fighting against all odds in its attempt to depoliticize its regional image through the use of soccer. Between January 6 and…
- Policy AnalysisQatarRegional Relations and Geopolitics
Qatar’s Successful World Cup Signals a New Era in the Gulf and Beyond
Jan 5, 2023Kristian Coates UlrichsenThe 22nd FIFA Men’s World Cup came to an end in Doha, Qatar on December 18 with one of the most thrilling finals in the nearly century-long history of the comp…
- Policy AnalysisTurkeyConflicts and Conflict Resolution
How Realistic Is an Erdoğan-Assad Rapprochement?
Dec 28, 2022Mustafa GurbuzDespite Turkey’s frequent threats that it will soon undertake a new military ground offensive in northern Syria, no such operation has yet materialized. This h…
- ViewpointSaudi ArabiaRegional Relations and Geopolitics
Saudi Arabia Will Not Find Strategic Protection in China
Dec 13, 2022Imad K. HarbSaudi Arabia has just spent three days hosting Chinese President Xi Jinping in a summit that some believe could be fateful for the kingdom’s future strategic a…
- Policy AnalysisIraqRegional Relations and Geopolitics
Iraq’s Foreign Policy Balancing Act Is Likely to Continue
Nov 29, 2022Gregory AftandilianDespite the support that Iraq’s new prime minister, Mohammed Shia’ al-Sudani, has received from pro-Iran factions in the Iraqi Parliament, he is likely to purs…
- Policy AnalysisTurkeyThe War in Ukraine
Turkey-Brokered Grain Deal Bolsters Erdoğan-Putin Partnership
Nov 22, 2022Mustafa GurbuzTurkey’s role in negotiations around Russia’s war in Ukraine has provided Ankara with extraordinary visibility on the global stage. Turkish President Recep Tay…
- Policy AnalysisEgyptRegional Relations and Geopolitics
Egypt-Turkey Relations: Challenges and Future Prospects
Oct 18, 2022Khalil Al-AnaniOver the past two years, several positive signs have emerged in the Egyptian-Turkish relationship that might result in the normalization of diplomatic relation…
- ViewpointThe Arabian Peninsula and The GulfEnergy and Economics
With Friends Like These: OPEC’s Oil Production and US-Gulf Relations
Oct 7, 2022Imad K. HarbIn a move that will certainly have serious political and economic repercussions in the United States and around the world, OPEC+, a group of oil-producing nati…