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IraqConflicts and Conflict ResolutionThe Kirkuk Battle Is a Watershed Event for Iraq
Oct 19, 2017Abdulwahab Al-QassabThe Iraqi central government harnessed domestic and international support to abort the Kurdish referendum for independence, in the process weakening the KRG’s …
- Policy Analysis
IraqDemocracy and GovernanceThe Kurdish Referendum and Cross-Communal Dynamics in Iraq
Oct 12, 2017Gregory AftandilianWhile Abadi’s popularity has risen because of his stewardship of the successful anti-Islamic State campaign, his standing could be jeopardized if the crisis ov…
- Policy Analysis
IraqIdentity Politics and SectarianizationDoes Turkey Really Want to Punish Iraqi Kurdistan?
Oct 3, 2017Mustafa GurbuzTurkey may feel that it has to impose punitive measures against Iraqi Kurdistan over the referendum but countervailing Turkish domestic political conditions ma…
- Policy Analysis
IraqDemocracy and GovernanceIraq’s Kurds Vote to Secede, but Problems Loom
Oct 2, 2017Imad K. Harb Khalil E. Jahshan Joe Macaron Marcus Montgomery Abdulwahab Al-Qassab Radwan Ziadeh Mustafa GurbuzThe widespread disapproval of the Kurdish referendum inside Iraq, the region, and internationally points to potential serious developments for the Kurds and a …
- Policy Analysis
IraqDemocracy and GovernanceThe Follies and Pitfalls of the Kurdish Referendum
Sep 22, 2017Abdulwahab Al-QassabThe Kurdish referendum is a dangerous play with delicate Kurdish and Iraqi politics to shore up KRG President Masood Barzani’s legitimacy in Iraqi Kurdistan.
- Policy Analysis
LevantConflicts and Conflict ResolutionFuture Implications of the Islamic State’s Demise in Syria
Sep 20, 2017Radwan ZiadehSyria’s developments regarding the Islamic State’s expected demise and the Astana meeting should not be taken to signal an end to the country’s war which has l…
- Policy Analysis
IranConflicts and Conflict ResolutionIs the Turkey-Iran Rapprochement Durable in Iraq and Syria?
Aug 24, 2017Mustafa GurbuzGiven the historical nature of the Turkish-Iranian rivalry, a durable rapprochement between Turkey and Iran requires assurances about the future of the Kurds a…
- Policy Analysis
IraqIdentity Politics and SectarianizationThe Independence Referendum: A Pyrrhic Victory for Barzani
Jul 10, 2017Mustafa GurbuzThe Kurdish decision to hold a referendum on independence from Iraq may bring happiness to the Kurds but will come at a heavy price for the Kurdish leadership.
- Policy Analysis
LebanonDemocracy and GovernanceOnce Again, Lebanon Faces the Ghost of a Political Vacuum
May 17, 2017Joe MacaronLebanon’s sectarian consensus rule raises questions about the functionality of the country’s political system. An agreement on its new electoral law is needed …
- Policy Analysis
IraqIdentity Politics and SectarianizationIraq Beyond the Islamic State
May 17, 2017Charles W. DunneAfter the defeat of ISIL and the reconquest of Mosul, how will Iraq’s government address the lingering issues of national identity, minorities, and Kurdish asp…
- Policy Analysis
LevantIdentity Politics and SectarianizationPerceptions of ISIL in the Arab World
Apr 14, 2017Radwan ZiadehArab autocrats can no longer argue that Arabs are satisfied with authoritarian rule. New social movements have emerged after the Arab Spring advocating for hum…
- Policy Analysis
IranConflicts and Conflict ResolutionGenocide in Mosul: The Repercussions of Targeting Civilians
Apr 4, 2017Abdulwahab Al-QassabThere have been widespread allegations that the destruction of Mosul, the major Sunni Iraqi city after Baghdad, is the aim of the Iranian-backed Shiite militia…
- Policy Analysis
LebanonDemocracy and GovernanceLebanon’s Oligarchy Consolidates Control over the Security Establishment
Mar 22, 2017Joe MacaronAfter an impasse of nearly four years, on March 8 the Lebanese government announced a sectarian quota deal to fill the security establishment's leadership posi…
- Policy Analysis
LevantDemocracy and GovernanceTurnover: What Are the Implications of Recent and Upcoming Changes in Hamas?
Mar 15, 2017Yousef MunayyerBackgroundSince its establishment in the 1980s, the Palestinian Islamic Resistance Movement, or Hamas, has increasingly become an important player in domestic …
- Policy AnalysisIranIdentity Politics and Sectarianization
Turkey-Iran Relations: A Sectarian Future?
Mar 8, 2017Mustafa GurbuzThe Syrian war and ensuing crisis in Iraq have put Turkey and Iran in an unprecedented sectarian rivalry. Competition over Iraqi Kurdistan will be a major test…
- Policy Analysis
IranIdentity Politics and SectarianizationGeneral Mattis and Iraq: Motivations and Apprehensions
Feb 3, 2017Abdulwahab Al-QassabThe appointment of retired US General James Mattis as Secretary of Defense comes during cautious times for both Iraqis and Americans. The Iraqis are anticipati…
- Policy AnalysisLevantIdentity Politics and Sectarianization
A World Between bin Laden and Breivik: Supremacist Ideologies Shaping the 21st Century
Jan 26, 2017Yousef MunayyerFrom Austria, Hungary, Poland, Switzerland, and elsewhere on the European continent, right-wing political parties are on the rise. Nationalism, protectionism, …
- Policy AnalysisIraqDemocracy and Governance
Iraqi Kurdistan’s Bid for Independence: Challenges and Prospects
Jan 26, 2017Mustafa GurbuzMasoud Barzani, the leader of the Kurdistan Regional Government (KRG) in Iraqi Kurdistan, has expressed his expectation for “a big change” in US policy under P…
- Policy AnalysisDemocracy and Governance
President Trump and the Republican Congress: Smooth Sailing or Choppy Waters?
Jan 25, 2017Roxanne PeruginoFor only the third time since 1929, the Republican Party will control the House, Senate and the White House and have the opportunity to choose a Supreme Court …
- Policy AnalysisLebanonDemocracy and Governance
Aoun in Riyadh: A Test for Lebanon’s Foreign Policy
Jan 25, 2017Joe MacaronIn November 2014, General Michel Aoun told the Lebanese daily newspaper, As-Safir, that the late Saudi foreign minister Saud al-Faisal was behind a veto to ele…
- Policy AnalysisIraqIdentity Politics and Sectarianization
Turkish-Iraqi Relations: Old Trends and Future Possibilities
Jan 17, 2017Abdulwahab Al-QassabRelations between Iraq and Turkey have been cordial and cautious since Iraq became independent of Ottoman suzerainty after WWI, when British forces invaded and…
- Policy AnalysisIranIdentity Politics and Sectarianization
Rafsanjani’s Death and Its Impact on Iran’s Political Bazaar
Jan 9, 2017Imad K. HarbThe death of former Iranian President Ali Akbar Hashemi Rafsanjani comes at a critical time in the Islamic Republic’s political history. As one of the founders…
- Policy AnalysisLebanonDemocracy and Governance
The Misplaced Hope of Lebanon’s Presidential Election
Dec 1, 2016Imad K. HarbDevelopments in Lebanon during November 2016 made it increasingly evident that the election as president of Michel Aoun, former general and leader of the Refor…
- Policy AnalysisLebanonDemocracy and Governance
End of Stalemate: A Loose Power-Sharing Agreement in Lebanon
Oct 28, 2016Joe MacaronAfter a 30-month impasse that paralyzed the country’s governing institutions and questioned the legitimacy of the confessional system, the Lebanese Parliament …
- Policy AnalysisIranConflicts and Conflict Resolution
Hezbollah, Iran, and the Politics of Obstructionism
Sep 23, 2016Imad K. HarbOn September 7, Lebanon’s Parliament failed for the forty-third time to convene a session to elect a president. Since the expiration of former president Michel…
- Policy AnalysisLebanonDemocracy and Governance
New Rules of Engagement for US-Hezbollah Arm Wrestling in Lebanon
Jul 6, 2016Joe MacaronLebanon is the only country in the Middle East where US policy is actively seeking to deter Iran’s regional influence. Washington is directly targeting Hezboll…
- Policy AnalysisLebanonDemocracy and Governance
What Municipal Elections Mean for Lebanon
May 17, 2016Joe MacaronLebanon is holding this month municipal elections across the country, the first electoral test since the start of the Syrian war. The ruling traditional partie…
- Policy AnalysisIraqDemocracy and Governance
Defeating ISIL is Not Enough to Save Iraq
May 10, 2016Joe MacaronTwo years into the fight against the Islamic State in Iraq and the Levant (ISIL) and amid the persistent downward trend of global oil prices, Iraq is obviously…
- Policy AnalysisLevantIdentity Politics and Sectarianization
Freedom of religion as a foundation of Arab democracy: An Arab view of the 2016 report of US Commission on International Religious Freedom
May 3, 2016Tamara KharroubThe onset of the so-called “Arab Spring” in 2011 gave hope to millions of people across the Arab world that change is possible and that freedoms, democratic tr…
- Policy AnalysisLebanonIdentity Politics and Sectarianization
Saudi Arabia Goes on the Offensive against Hezbollah
Mar 8, 2016Joe MacaronSaudi Arabia’s explicit identification of the Iranian-backed Hezbollah as a strategic threat is a tipping point in the underlying tensions between both sides. …
- Research PaperIdentity Politics and Sectarianization
Understanding Violent Extremism: The Social Psychology of Identity and Group Dynamics
Sep 25, 2015Tamara KharroubThe issue of violent extremism has been the center of media and policy attention in the United States especially since 9/11. Numerous research and analysis pap…
