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- Policy AnalysisLibyaDemocracy and Governance
Libya’s Modern Slavery and the Politics of Denial
Dec 18, 2017Mohammed CherkaouiThe treatment of refugees and migrants in Libya raises new questions about three major political, socioeconomic, and moral dilemmas for the Libyan government, …
- Policy AnalysisSaudi ArabiaDemocracy and Governance
Implications of Saleh’s Assassination on Yemen’s Future
Dec 8, 2017Joe MacaronFor the Iranian regime, Yemen remains a low-risk investment at Saudi Arabia’s border; and the impression in Tehran is that Saleh’s assassination forced Riyadh’…
- Policy AnalysisNorth AfricaDemocracy and Governance
Challenges to Tunisia’s Transition to Democracy
Nov 21, 2017Mohammed CherkaouiRecent moves by the Tunisian executive suggest that the Jasmine Revolution is not unfolding as smoothly as expected and that the country may not be the excepti…
- Policy AnalysisEgyptDemocracy and Governance
Is Egypt’s Population Growth a Blessing or a Curse?
Nov 20, 2017Sahar KhamisAt 98 million, Egypt’s rapid population growth is a threat to the national economy and an obstacle to the country’s prospects for development and prosperity.
- Policy AnalysisSaudi ArabiaDemocracy and Governance
Is Power Trumping Legitimacy in Saudi Arabia?
Nov 16, 2017Imad K. HarbPrince Mohammed bin Salman’s Machiavellianism endangers at least three pillars of legitimate rule in Saudi Arabia: royal family consensual decision-making, con…
- Policy AnalysisLebanonDemocracy and Governance
US Curbs Saudi Arabia’s Surge in Lebanon
Nov 14, 2017Joe MacaronClear statements from the White House and the Department of State appear to have curbed the Saudi surge in Beirut and toned down Riyadh’s rhetoric against the …
- Policy AnalysisSaudi ArabiaDemocracy and Governance
Is Mohammed bin Salman Overplaying His Hand?
Nov 6, 2017Imad K. HarbMohammed bin Salman may think that consolidating power in his hands will help the kingdom face its challenges, but he would do well to know that sidelining imp…
- Policy AnalysisLevantConflicts and Conflict Resolution
Is Palestinian Reconciliation Viable This Time?
Nov 3, 2017Khalil E. JahshanThe Fatah-Hamas reconciliation agreement is the product of political manipulation between parties that lack confidence in each other’s strategic objectives. Th…
- Policy AnalysisLevantConflicts and Conflict Resolution
A Century after Balfour: Israel’s Knesset Wants All of Palestine
Nov 2, 2017Yousef MunayyerA hundred years after the Balfour Declaration, Israeli lawmakers are slated to take legislative steps that, instead of moving toward democracy, would only doub…
- Policy AnalysisSaudi ArabiaDemocracy and Governance
Domestic Troubles for the Saudi Arabian Leadership
Oct 24, 2017Imad K. HarbMohammed bin Salman’s challenge to established norms of governance in Saudi Arabia and the abrupt changes in its economic and social conditions may help pull t…
- Policy AnalysisLibyaConflicts and Conflict Resolution
Libya’s Complicated Search for a Leader
Oct 24, 2017Mohammed CherkaouiLibya faces an uneasy distinction between a fragile state and a failed state and has fallen between the cracks of a dispute over legitimacy, struggle for power…
- Policy AnalysisLebanonDemocracy and Governance
Will US, Saudi Pressure Deter Hezbollah in Lebanon?
Oct 12, 2017Joe MacaronGiven the current status quo in Lebanon, the best American and Saudi pressure can do is to make the country’s political environment unbearable for Hezbollah.
- Policy AnalysisIraqDemocracy and Governance
The Kurdish Referendum and Cross-Communal Dynamics in Iraq
Oct 12, 2017Gregory AftandilianWhile Abadi’s popularity has risen because of his stewardship of the successful anti-Islamic State campaign, his standing could be jeopardized if the crisis ov…
- Policy AnalysisMoroccoDemocracy and Governance
Morocco’s Rif Rises against the Makhzen’s Power
Oct 4, 2017Mohammed CherkaouiMorocco’s popular protests highlight three intersecting dilemmas: the future legitimacy of the monarchy, poor governance and widespread corruption, and the pot…
- Policy AnalysisEgyptDemocracy and Governance
Egypt’s Role in Arab Politics: Punching Below its Weight
Oct 4, 2017Charles W. DunneEgypt’s traditional influence in the Arab world is a function of its ability to help resolve its problems. This influence is today on a downward trajectory as …
- Policy AnalysisIraqDemocracy and Governance
Iraq’s Kurds Vote to Secede, but Problems Loom
Oct 2, 2017Imad K. Harb Khalil E. Jahshan Joe Macaron Marcus Montgomery Abdulwahab Al-Qassab Radwan Ziadeh Mustafa GurbuzThe widespread disapproval of the Kurdish referendum inside Iraq, the region, and internationally points to potential serious developments for the Kurds and a …
- Policy AnalysisIraqDemocracy and Governance
The Follies and Pitfalls of the Kurdish Referendum
Sep 22, 2017Abdulwahab Al-QassabThe Kurdish referendum is a dangerous play with delicate Kurdish and Iraqi politics to shore up KRG President Masood Barzani’s legitimacy in Iraqi Kurdistan.
- Policy AnalysisLevantConflicts and Conflict Resolution
Will Netanyahu’s Legal Troubles Break the Stalemate?
Aug 31, 2017Yousef MunayyerWith or without Benyamin Netanyahu, there is little reason to believe that any likely foreseeable Israeli government will be ready for peace with the Palestini…
- Policy AnalysisEgyptDemocracy and Governance
Egypt’s Extremist Groups and the Shrinking Political Space
Aug 29, 2017Gregory AftandilianThe Egyptian government’s repressive policies have contributed to the problem of extremism by constricting political space, severely cracking down on opponents…
- Policy AnalysisLibyaConflicts and Conflict Resolution
The Still Elusive Libyan Peace
Aug 17, 2017Imad K. HarbThe political impasse in Libya may pave the way for a final collapse of the nearly failed Libyan state and the subsequent divorce between the eastern and weste…
- Policy AnalysisIraqDemocracy and Governance
Existential Questions: Iraq Gears up for Elections
Aug 7, 2017Charles W. DunneIraqi political forces are beginning to come together, pick fights, ingratiate themselves with potential foreign patrons, and evaluate the mood of the country …
- Policy AnalysisSaudi ArabiaDemocracy and Governance
Mohammed bin Salman’s Elevation and the Way Forward
Aug 1, 2017Imad K. HarbCrown Prince Mohammed bin Salman faces serious challenges in affirming Saudi Arabia’s domestic stability and addressing the fallout from the GCC crisis and the…
- Policy AnalysisIraqConflicts and Conflict Resolution
The Day after Mosul’s Liberation
Jul 25, 2017Abdulwahab Al-QassabCrafting a new social and political order after the defeat of ISIL in Mosul, and elsewhere in Iraq, is a responsibility for the Iraqis, their allies, the regio…
- Policy AnalysisLebanonDemocracy and Governance
Hariri Comes to Washington in the Shadow of Hezbollah’s Wars
Jul 25, 2017Joe MacaronThe measure of success for Hariri’s visit to Washington is his ability to convince US officials that the status quo is the best Lebanon can do considering the …
- Policy AnalysisAlgeriaDemocracy and Governance
Challenges Facing Algeria’s Future
Jul 21, 2017Imad K. HarbAlgeria is challenged by a lethargic political system headed by an ailing president, a poorly performing rentier economy, and a rising Salafi Islam that is com…
- Policy AnalysisDemocracy and Governance
A Case for Human Rights and Democracy in US Middle East Policy
Jul 5, 2017Charles W. DunneAmerican advocacy of human rights has helped defend US security in the long term, stabilize US allies and the international system, and build the moral capital…
- Policy AnalysisLebanonDemocracy and Governance
Once Again, Lebanon Faces the Ghost of a Political Vacuum
May 17, 2017Joe MacaronLebanon’s sectarian consensus rule raises questions about the functionality of the country’s political system. An agreement on its new electoral law is needed …
- Policy AnalysisIranDemocracy and Governance
Challenges Facing Iran’s Presidential Contenders
May 9, 2017Imad K. HarbIran’s presidential candidates are acutely aware that if elected, they would have to hew to the wishes and ultimate desires of the Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei.
- Policy AnalysisNorth AfricaDemocracy and Governance
Tunisians Want a Better Economy and a Democratic System
May 1, 2017Imad K. HarbForty-nine percent of Tunisians consider improving the economy the topmost priority while 20 percent think that security is. An overwhelming majority want a de…
- Policy AnalysisLevantDemocracy and Governance
The Quandary of Bad Governance in the Arab World
Apr 24, 2017Imad K. HarbPolling in the Arab world shows that Arabs in general have little confidence in their civilian institutions and believe that their governments are not doing en…
- Policy AnalysisLevantDemocracy and Governance
The Trump Administration’s Complicated Middle East Map
Apr 12, 2017Charles W. DunneAs the 2016 US presidential campaign wound its way through a long string of primaries, fundraisers, and an almost unimaginable marathon of candidate debates, d…
- Policy AnalysisEgyptDemocracy and Governance
Egypt’s Fragile Stability: Erosion of the Rule of Law and Institutions of Governance
Mar 30, 2017Moataz El FegieryThis paper addresses the erosion of the rule of law and institutions of governance in Egypt by discussing the significant expansion of legal repression, the cl…
- Policy AnalysisIranDemocracy and Governance
Syria Peace Talks in Geneva: A Road to Nowhere
Mar 27, 2017Radwan ZiadehOn March 3, 2017, the United Nations’ Special Envoy for Syria, Staffan de Mistura, concluded the last round of Syria peace negotiations in Geneva by saying tha…
- Policy AnalysisLebanonDemocracy and Governance
Lebanon’s Oligarchy Consolidates Control over the Security Establishment
Mar 22, 2017Joe MacaronAfter an impasse of nearly four years, on March 8 the Lebanese government announced a sectarian quota deal to fill the security establishment's leadership posi…
- Policy AnalysisLevantDemocracy and Governance
Turnover: What Are the Implications of Recent and Upcoming Changes in Hamas?
Mar 15, 2017Yousef MunayyerBackgroundSince its establishment in the 1980s, the Palestinian Islamic Resistance Movement, or Hamas, has increasingly become an important player in domestic …
- Policy AnalysisLevantDemocracy and Governance
Why Federalism Is a Bad Idea for Syria
Mar 13, 2017Radwan ZiadehIn the middle of the discussion about transition in Syria, Russia proposed the idea of a federal republic, according to deputy foreign minister Sergei Ryabkov.…
- Policy AnalysisNorth AfricaConflicts and Conflict Resolution
Democratization and Radicalization: Understanding Tunisia’s Model of Democratic Transition
Feb 21, 2017Tamara KharroubOn February 1, 2017, German police arrested a Tunisian asylum seeker suspected of recruiting for the Islamic State of Iraq and the Levant (ISIL) and planning a…
- Policy AnalysisDemocracy and Governance
Ten Days of Trump: Prospects for Democracy and Human Rights vis-à-vis the Arab World
Feb 1, 2017Tamara KharroubIn his first 10 days in office, President Trump signed executive orders and made statements that greatly influence US foreign policy, from suspending refugee r…
- Policy AnalysisIraqDemocracy and Governance
Iraqi Kurdistan’s Bid for Independence: Challenges and Prospects
Jan 26, 2017Mustafa GurbuzMasoud Barzani, the leader of the Kurdistan Regional Government (KRG) in Iraqi Kurdistan, has expressed his expectation for “a big change” in US policy under P…
- Policy AnalysisDemocracy and Governance
President Trump and the Republican Congress: Smooth Sailing or Choppy Waters?
Jan 25, 2017Roxanne PeruginoFor only the third time since 1929, the Republican Party will control the House, Senate and the White House and have the opportunity to choose a Supreme Court …
- Policy AnalysisLebanonDemocracy and Governance
Aoun in Riyadh: A Test for Lebanon’s Foreign Policy
Jan 25, 2017Joe MacaronIn November 2014, General Michel Aoun told the Lebanese daily newspaper, As-Safir, that the late Saudi foreign minister Saud al-Faisal was behind a veto to ele…
- Policy AnalysisLebanonDemocracy and Governance
The Misplaced Hope of Lebanon’s Presidential Election
Dec 1, 2016Imad K. HarbDevelopments in Lebanon during November 2016 made it increasingly evident that the election as president of Michel Aoun, former general and leader of the Refor…
- Policy AnalysisIraqConflicts and Conflict Resolution
Mosul will not be Truly Liberated Without Strong Political Leadership
Nov 17, 2016Mustafa GurbuzThe military victory in Mosul will not be sufficient unless the United States finds a political resolution, in cooperation with local parties, that addresses S…
- Policy AnalysisLevantDemocracy and Governance
Arab Issues Awaiting the Next President
Nov 7, 2016Imad K. HarbAmidst the maelstrom that is the presidential election, American foreign policy has regressed to the uncomfortable and neglected recesses reserved for untoucha…
- Policy AnalysisLebanonDemocracy and Governance
End of Stalemate: A Loose Power-Sharing Agreement in Lebanon
Oct 28, 2016Joe MacaronAfter a 30-month impasse that paralyzed the country’s governing institutions and questioned the legitimacy of the confessional system, the Lebanese Parliament …
- Policy AnalysisLevantConflicts and Conflict Resolution
Colombia Peace Talks: Lessons for Palestine Policy
Oct 13, 2016Yousef MunayyerAfter four years of painstaking negotiations, the 52-year war in Colombia between the government and rebels looked like it was coming to an end. Then, in one d…
- Policy AnalysisLevantDemocracy and Governance
Biden in Ankara enticing Erdogan to weigh his options
Aug 24, 2016Joe MacaronVice President Joe Biden visited Ankara on August 24 to salvage the remnants of US interests in Turkey. The July 15 military coup attempt left President Recep …
- Policy AnalysisLevantDemocracy and Governance
The Week that Cut Turkey’s Ambitions Down to Size
Jul 7, 2016Yousef MunayyerAlthough signs of policy adjustment have been in the works for several months, the events of June 2016 were an emphatic marker of a shift in Turkey’s foreign p…
- Policy AnalysisLebanonDemocracy and Governance
New Rules of Engagement for US-Hezbollah Arm Wrestling in Lebanon
Jul 6, 2016Joe MacaronLebanon is the only country in the Middle East where US policy is actively seeking to deter Iran’s regional influence. Washington is directly targeting Hezboll…
- Research PaperEgyptDemocracy and Governance
The Gender Paradox of Arab Democracy
Jun 22, 2016Tamara KharroubOn 17 December 2010, 26-year-old Tunisian street vendor Tarek al-Tayeb Mohamed Bouazizi was slapped across the face in front of a crowd and insulted by a munic…
- Policy AnalysisLevantDemocracy and Governance
Lessons of Israel’s Political Shuffle
May 20, 2016Yousef MunayyerThe latest political move by Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu is significant on many fronts. Yesterday the news was reported that Netanyahu had offere…
- Policy AnalysisLebanonDemocracy and Governance
What Municipal Elections Mean for Lebanon
May 17, 2016Joe MacaronLebanon is holding this month municipal elections across the country, the first electoral test since the start of the Syrian war. The ruling traditional partie…
- Policy AnalysisIraqDemocracy and Governance
Defeating ISIL is Not Enough to Save Iraq
May 10, 2016Joe MacaronTwo years into the fight against the Islamic State in Iraq and the Levant (ISIL) and amid the persistent downward trend of global oil prices, Iraq is obviously…
- Research PaperLevantConflicts and Conflict Resolution
Time for Transitional Justice and National Reconciliation in Syria
Apr 8, 2016Radwan ZiadehTransitional justice refers to a group of activities or investigations that focuses on communities with a legacy of human rights violations, genocide, or other…
- Policy AnalysisLevantDemocracy and Governance
The Obama Doctrine from a Middle East Perspective: Orientalism, Inaction, Contradiction, and Lack of Accountability
Mar 18, 2016Tamara KharroubIn a lengthy narrative collection of conversations and interviews with President Obama and others, journalist Jeffry Goldberg’s tedious tale of “The Obama Doct…